I was not impressed with the Apple Watch in its current state. I know new products are more about promise of what's to come than what is here now. I think people who are served well by their iPhones will find the AW redundant. I would consider getting one (I cancelled my order recently after waiting 7 weeks) when this product is more refined in hardware and software. I am usually a 1.0 product guy but this "most personal Apple product ever" has got to be better if I am to actually wear and use it.
This slow launch may soon prove to have been a big mistake and perhaps Apple was just busting at the seems to get it out there even if it was to just a few. Time will tell if the launch has run out of steam or if it has not really begun. Time will tell if people will find the AW to be an ideal product for the way they live or just one more gadget they need to charge each day and attend to its every alert.
My interpretation of Tim's comment was that they would not break out sales revenue of the Watch as a separate financial category. This doesn't mean that he won't toss out a volume statistic or two during an upcoming hardware release. But, I may be wrong.
In fact, I suspect Tim will WANT to brag a bit on the Watch. Pre-orders of X Million. 95% of smart watch market after first X months of sales. Now readily available in stores in X countries. They have never had an issue discussing volumes on other products, of course shying away from revenue, profit levels, etc. except during quarterly financial results.
To me that number seems way too low, I expect Apple shifted that many in opening weekend pre-orders alone. By now I would imagine they're into double digit millions in terms of sales. Don't forget this is a guesstimate from one source and only accounting for the US.
No end of guestimates around, and one is as valid as the other, which is to say not much. That being said, I think expectations of double-digit sales in 2 months is very high. The product seemed to be very supply constrained, so by now they may not have sold significantly more than "opening weekend" results. And while vast majority of user reviews are very positive & bullish on the product, we have to remember that it is a new device category that will take time to be adopted.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quadra 610
Nearly three million in around two months, during its introductory run.
In terms of the industry at large, that's impressive (though the number is probably higher.) In terms of the smartwatch segment, it's an absolute bloodbath.
I think between 3-5M by the end of (calendar) Q2 seems about right. Good early adoption, and very good user reviews, and launching in more countries, should see them break 10M units by end of year. While there are many in the media and on this forum that will call that a failure, when you look at the existing market, and how this is an entry into the new area of wearable computing, it is really quite impressive.
Apple is clearly out in front, by a long shot, on the next computing platform. They just need to get the cloud services to back it up, and we are seeing some good progress on that front finally (Siri, maps, context).
It's a super, duper watch. Perfect combination of style, choice and function. I honestly don't think Apple could have done any better with their first get watch. But. But. But. I will never wear a watch. That explains why the numbers are low for an Apple product. Very high for a smartwatch—mind you.
exactly.
you got to figure only 30% of apple-aligned people will be 'first movers' into the watch market. Much like iPhone and iPad. The Watch is a 'body' computer, like the phone is a 'pocket computer.' Most of us see no compelling need to buy it. ... ... Today.
but if 2-4 Million people bought a watch in the last 4 months and say that works down to 500K a month, working from a conservative 500M 'apple users' that's 7 Million first year. the 2016 Watch 2... will sell 15M a year, and then settle into about that rate for a few years (I see watches being like iPads... you will buy one every 3-5 years.
after 7 years... that's 100Million watch users and a 20M a year run rate... 10% of the likely billion 'iPhone users'.
20M * $800ASP/400 avg profit = 16Bsales/ 8Bprofit a year. My guess that's the most profitable watch maker in the world.
In fact, I suspect Tim will WANT to brag a bit on the Watch. Pre-orders of X Million. 95% of smart watch market after first X months of sales. Now readily available in stores in X countries. They have never had an issue discussing volumes on other products, of course shying away from revenue, profit levels, etc. except during quarterly financial results.
Well I believe they said they weren't going to release numbers pertaining to the Apple watch for competitive reasons prior to the start of sales.
Well shows that some people in this country will buy any stupid thing. All I need to see now is someone looking at the time on their apple watch, as they listen to music on beats headphones and eat McDonalds. The power of marketing!
So everyone using this app has their email analyzed? How many people have downloaded this app?
I find it incredibly difficult to believe two million people are using any app that isn't Facebook or secretly installed by a phishing attack that has such access to their personal information.
I find it incredibly difficult to believe two million people are using any app that isn't Facebook or secretly installed by a phishing attack that has such access to their personal information.
It just amazes me how no one ever questions where these figures come from. Someone says the sport band costs $2 to make and everyone just assumes that's accurate. Even after Tim Cook said these estimates are never accurate. And for everyone that thinks Apple is ripping them off....well let's see them make a sport band to Apple's level of quality with $2 worth of materials.
That 2.79 million number sounds pretty accurate to me. I live in a college town (read: tech savvy), go out to eat lunch every day, and I have only laid eyes on about 4-5 Apple Watch Sports and 1 Apple Watch.
When I pay with my Apple Watch, I always get "Wow I didn't know you could do that with your watch too!" -- at places I've never been to. Heck, I go to Best Buy to look at something in person and I get at least a handful of "nice watch" or "an Apple watch?! cool." (oddly enough it comes mostly from Moto360 and Samsung Gear S wearing sales associates and managers, the rest are waiting awhile to buy a smart watch but never saw an Apple Watch in person before)
If Apple cracked 7-10 million, I would see more around me and get less surprised reactions from people. I'd also not be the "first" to pay at Subway yesterday with my watch, 2 months after they started shipping.
Apple allready is the market leader in the smartwatch category and the watch hasn't been on sale for a full three months. They are well on their way to equate the very first iPhone sales (6,124,000 units).
Reuters cites an IHS report that concluded Apple pays about $2.05 to manufacture a $49 Sport Band, though Apple CEO Tim Cook has gone on record as saying build cost estimates are usually wildly inaccurate.
In other news... Ford pays about $1,786.59 in metal, plastic, glass, and rubber to manufacture it's $80,000 Shelby Mustang.
It was obvious early on (to me) that Apple had made swapping bands very easy: and that's proved out as I easily adjusted my SB SS link band to my wrist size and picked up a black sport band for a nice backup.
As to use for the thing, only a few weeks in and my small iPhone 6 Plus usage has plummeted as a lot of that checking (what's the temp?, What's in my email queue?, What's my notifications re sports, news and weather?) is easier done with the watch: and so far the watch battery is rarely less than 60% at around midnight when I park it for ON charging.... with the simple to use magnetic inductive charger it's a no-brainer to pop the charger on since I'm not wearing the thing anyway.
...I think people who are served well by their iPhones will find the AW redundant...
Of course, we are all entitled to our own opinions. If I may offer my experiences as a counterpoint: I have had my Apple Watch since May 6. I have found that my iPhone 5S spends much more time in my pocket.
I handle and respond to, what feels like, 50% of texts using the watch. The Siri feature works excellent to send or respond to texts, and the suggested responses often are quite sufficient.
Another feature that gets more use than I expected is the "Speaker Watch". I'm not sure of the exact name of the feature, but if the phone rings, I can answer it on the watch. The two cases where this happens most if if I have my hands full carrying things, or maybe in the kitchen cooking. When I'm in the kitchen, I often leave the iPhone on a surface some distance from the kitchen.
I find myself looking at the weather often. I'm currently in north eastern Oklahoma and the weather has been a bit "dynamic" here lately (that means wet, wetter, and even wetter...).
I suspect my usage patterns may not fit everyone, but I am very pleased with what the watch offers and, as I mentioned, I am a bit surprised at how often the iPhone just stays in my pocket, or lying on a surface somewhere in the house. I am quite happy with my purchase.
Apple allready is the market leader in the smartwatch category and the watch hasn't been on sale for a full three months. They are well on their way to equate the very first iPhone sales (6,124,000 units).
Nearly three million in around two months, during its introductory run.
In terms of the industry at large, that's impressive (though the number is probably higher.) In terms of the smartwatch segment, it's an absolute bloodbath.
"But but but 70 million iPhones were sold last year..." --BF and the goalpost movers.
My interpretation of Tim's comment was that they would not break out sales revenue of the Watch as a separate financial category. This doesn't mean that he won't toss out a volume statistic or two during an upcoming hardware release. But, I may be wrong.
Im actually surprised he didn't do that at the developer's conference to pump up the watch developer's enthusiasm. But even if he doesn't, and Apple doesn't break it out in their reports, there's no real hiding the revenue, since it's the only new product added to a pre-existing category with a predictable track history this quarter.
Comments
This slow launch may soon prove to have been a big mistake and perhaps Apple was just busting at the seems to get it out there even if it was to just a few. Time will tell if the launch has run out of steam or if it has not really begun. Time will tell if people will find the AW to be an ideal product for the way they live or just one more gadget they need to charge each day and attend to its every alert.
My interpretation of Tim's comment was that they would not break out sales revenue of the Watch as a separate financial category. This doesn't mean that he won't toss out a volume statistic or two during an upcoming hardware release. But, I may be wrong.
In fact, I suspect Tim will WANT to brag a bit on the Watch. Pre-orders of X Million. 95% of smart watch market after first X months of sales. Now readily available in stores in X countries. They have never had an issue discussing volumes on other products, of course shying away from revenue, profit levels, etc. except during quarterly financial results.
To me that number seems way too low, I expect Apple shifted that many in opening weekend pre-orders alone. By now I would imagine they're into double digit millions in terms of sales. Don't forget this is a guesstimate from one source and only accounting for the US.
No end of guestimates around, and one is as valid as the other, which is to say not much. That being said, I think expectations of double-digit sales in 2 months is very high. The product seemed to be very supply constrained, so by now they may not have sold significantly more than "opening weekend" results. And while vast majority of user reviews are very positive & bullish on the product, we have to remember that it is a new device category that will take time to be adopted.
Nearly three million in around two months, during its introductory run.
In terms of the industry at large, that's impressive (though the number is probably higher.) In terms of the smartwatch segment, it's an absolute bloodbath.
I think between 3-5M by the end of (calendar) Q2 seems about right. Good early adoption, and very good user reviews, and launching in more countries, should see them break 10M units by end of year. While there are many in the media and on this forum that will call that a failure, when you look at the existing market, and how this is an entry into the new area of wearable computing, it is really quite impressive.
Apple is clearly out in front, by a long shot, on the next computing platform. They just need to get the cloud services to back it up, and we are seeing some good progress on that front finally (Siri, maps, context).
It's a super, duper watch. Perfect combination of style, choice and function. I honestly don't think Apple could have done any better with their first get watch. But. But. But. I will never wear a watch. That explains why the numbers are low for an Apple product. Very high for a smartwatch—mind you.
exactly.
you got to figure only 30% of apple-aligned people will be 'first movers' into the watch market. Much like iPhone and iPad. The Watch is a 'body' computer, like the phone is a 'pocket computer.' Most of us see no compelling need to buy it. ... ... Today.
but if 2-4 Million people bought a watch in the last 4 months and say that works down to 500K a month, working from a conservative 500M 'apple users' that's 7 Million first year. the 2016 Watch 2... will sell 15M a year, and then settle into about that rate for a few years (I see watches being like iPads... you will buy one every 3-5 years.
after 7 years... that's 100Million watch users and a 20M a year run rate... 10% of the likely billion 'iPhone users'.
20M * $800ASP/400 avg profit = 16Bsales/ 8Bprofit a year. My guess that's the most profitable watch maker in the world.
Can't ask for much more than that.
Odo hates Cook. It's best to ignore him. In fact I didn't realize he still posts.
Well I believe they said they weren't going to release numbers pertaining to the Apple watch for competitive reasons prior to the start of sales.
I find it incredibly difficult to believe two million people are using any app that isn't Facebook or secretly installed by a phishing attack that has such access to their personal information.
It just amazes me how no one ever questions where these figures come from. Someone says the sport band costs $2 to make and everyone just assumes that's accurate. Even after Tim Cook said these estimates are never accurate. And for everyone that thinks Apple is ripping them off....well let's see them make a sport band to Apple's level of quality with $2 worth of materials.
So a press release from Slice (whoever they are) arrives in AI's inbox and they post it up as fact. Great for page clicks I suppose.
This is the epitome of poor 'reporting'.
Not that I really expect much from AI as a place with high journalistic procedures.
I will never wear a watch.
Why not?
When I pay with my Apple Watch, I always get "Wow I didn't know you could do that with your watch too!" -- at places I've never been to. Heck, I go to Best Buy to look at something in person and I get at least a handful of "nice watch" or "an Apple watch?! cool." (oddly enough it comes mostly from Moto360 and Samsung Gear S wearing sales associates and managers, the rest are waiting awhile to buy a smart watch but never saw an Apple Watch in person before)
If Apple cracked 7-10 million, I would see more around me and get less surprised reactions from people. I'd also not be the "first" to pay at Subway yesterday with my watch, 2 months after they started shipping.
I think that, if Apple were to sell 15-20M Watches worldwide, combined with the strap sales, it would be considered a blockbuster product.
In that scheme of things, ~3M in the US in the first couple of months seems about the right number.
Apple allready is the market leader in the smartwatch category and the watch hasn't been on sale for a full three months. They are well on their way to equate the very first iPhone sales (6,124,000 units).
[ no sarcasm intended ]
Reuters cites an IHS report that concluded Apple pays about $2.05 to manufacture a $49 Sport Band, though Apple CEO Tim Cook has gone on record as saying build cost estimates are usually wildly inaccurate.
In other news... Ford pays about $1,786.59 in metal, plastic, glass, and rubber to manufacture it's $80,000 Shelby Mustang.
It was obvious early on (to me) that Apple had made swapping bands very easy: and that's proved out as I easily adjusted my SB SS link band to my wrist size and picked up a black sport band for a nice backup.
As to use for the thing, only a few weeks in and my small iPhone 6 Plus usage has plummeted as a lot of that checking (what's the temp?, What's in my email queue?, What's my notifications re sports, news and weather?) is easier done with the watch: and so far the watch battery is rarely less than 60% at around midnight when I park it for ON charging.... with the simple to use magnetic inductive charger it's a no-brainer to pop the charger on since I'm not wearing the thing anyway.
That's changed in the last 24 hours as they now offer reservations to buy in store. I picked mine up yesterday!
...I think people who are served well by their iPhones will find the AW redundant...
Of course, we are all entitled to our own opinions. If I may offer my experiences as a counterpoint: I have had my Apple Watch since May 6. I have found that my iPhone 5S spends much more time in my pocket.
I handle and respond to, what feels like, 50% of texts using the watch. The Siri feature works excellent to send or respond to texts, and the suggested responses often are quite sufficient.
Another feature that gets more use than I expected is the "Speaker Watch". I'm not sure of the exact name of the feature, but if the phone rings, I can answer it on the watch. The two cases where this happens most if if I have my hands full carrying things, or maybe in the kitchen cooking. When I'm in the kitchen, I often leave the iPhone on a surface some distance from the kitchen.
I find myself looking at the weather often. I'm currently in north eastern Oklahoma and the weather has been a bit "dynamic" here lately (that means wet, wetter, and even wetter...).
I suspect my usage patterns may not fit everyone, but I am very pleased with what the watch offers and, as I mentioned, I am a bit surprised at how often the iPhone just stays in my pocket, or lying on a surface somewhere in the house. I am quite happy with my purchase.
"But but but 70 million iPhones were sold last year..." --BF and the goalpost movers.
My interpretation of Tim's comment was that they would not break out sales revenue of the Watch as a separate financial category. This doesn't mean that he won't toss out a volume statistic or two during an upcoming hardware release. But, I may be wrong.
Im actually surprised he didn't do that at the developer's conference to pump up the watch developer's enthusiasm. But even if he doesn't, and Apple doesn't break it out in their reports, there's no real hiding the revenue, since it's the only new product added to a pre-existing category with a predictable track history this quarter.