I really need to get a job as an analyst. If the stock goes up, upgrade the stock. If the stock goes down, downgrade the stock. You never need to actually predict anything.
With Apple it's always what's next? Wall Street says ok you gave us larger screen phones now what? Ok you gave us the Watch, now what? Ok you gave us an updated ?TV, now what? Ok the car is coming, what comes after that? With other companies analysts view them as the best is still coming (They've done that with Amazon for 15 years). With Apple the view is always their best days are behind them.
I get that the expectations are always greater for Apple, but Apple continues to deliver. Articles treating the upgrades in the 'S' models as minor upgrades is silly. The phone may have the same case, but that doesn't mean the upgrades are minor.
The stock right now is priced for zero growth. Wall Street is saying 'you played your big screen phone card, got a couple quarters out of it and now it's over'. I think it's lunacy but that's what the market is saying.
I get that the expectations are always greater for Apple, but Apple continues to deliver. Articles treating the upgrades in the 'S' models as minor upgrades is silly. The phone may have the same case, but that doesn't mean the upgrades are minor.
I agree with you. But Wall Street doesn't. No matter what Apple does it's not enough. The Watch isn't an instant iPhone 6 type hit so it's deemed a failure and Wall Street is already looking for the next thing. ?TV will come out and Wall Street will yawn because it doesn't revolutionize TV as we know it. Even though we all know it's the content companies standing in th way of innovation in this space, not Apple. No matter what Apple does it will never be good enough.
Yet they never ask ExxonMobil "you gave us gasoline, now what?"
More apt would be OK Google you conquered search what's next? But apparently Wall Street thinks search and Excel are commodities that people will always need and can never be disrupted.
If Apple continues to make the SAME profits they've been making, and not a penny more, they can probably buy the fucking planet in a decade. But no, they have to show more "growth" every quarter/year, both in profits, and revenue, even beyond sales.
The religion that's demanding that is called economics (it would be too much honor to call it a pseudo science).
Apple is expanding their research facilities all over. All this expansion is not just for the iPhone. There's more in the works but Apple won't talk about it therefore Wall Street and some influential analysts hate them. To beat these moronic analysts at their game just stay long Apple. Don't trade the stock. Buy on dips. Analysts are dishonest and uneducated people whose main job is to screw people over like used car salespeople.
The stock right now is priced for zero growth. Wall Street is saying 'you played your big screen phone card, got a couple quarters out of it and now it's over'. I think it's lunacy but that's what the market is saying.
It was priced for zero growth a few years back too and ... Then it grew. Worth getting in I think.
I love how the articles regarding the 'S' models always downplay the model and say the improvements are minor...The 5S was a significant update over the 5. It brought the 64 bit chip, and Touch ID onboard paving the way for Apple Pay.
I believe the 6S will also introduce some significant new capabilities. We are still waiting to see the fruit of several Apple acquisitions including PrimeSense.
It seems that at the current price, that there is already little or no earnings growth built in. The stock is not priced for growing revenue, or declining revenue but flat line, stagnant sales numbers. But Apple has never had the benefit of a high PE ratio. It hasn't made much difference to long term stockholders since of course they've done quite well, but it's always felt like a collective F-you from Wall Street. I don't expect that attitude to ever change really, it seems so deeply ingrained. It's like they still think of Apple as this hippie, rebel California cult that's out to get the establishment even though they now have the largest market cap in the world.
I love how the articles regarding the 'S' models always downplay the model and say the improvements are minor. The only things that are not updated are the enclosure and maybe a wireless chip or 2. If force touch is added, and the already good camera is vastly improved and the new CPU is faster and more efficient and the GPUs are better and the display is better then it is a significant update. The 5S was a significant update over the 5. It brought the 64 bit chip, and Touch ID onboard paving the way for Apple Pay.
To be fair, the most compelling features are introduced with the whole number models, as well as the latest designs. Take the 4S to 5 jump. The 5 introduced a new larger screen. For many people that was a big deal. But Touch ID and 64 bit chip weren't things that could immediately be utilized, as ?Pay wasn't in use, and there was little software that took advantage of the 6 bit architecture. So there was nothing particularly compelling that was driving a stampede to the store to upgrade. And likewise for the 5S to the 6. Personally, I didn't upgrade to the 5 because I didn't want or need a bigger screen. I ended up buying a 5S after the 6 came out with an even larger screen. And I didn't know what I was missing with Touch ID, just to unlock my phone.
That said, every annual update to the iPhone outsells the previous, regardless of how immediately relevant or compelling the updates. So the fact that these analysts continue to downplay the "S" models is indeed a mystery.
If you think these analyst are out there to HELP the public you are mistaken.
They are out there to manipulate the public to buy/sell shares at the exact wrong time.
Oil futures is another good example. The US is using about the same amount of gas we used in the last 1970's and the market whores keep trying to drive up the price. Finally our supply is so far ahead of the demand as hard as they try they can't keep the price of a barrel where they want it.
The only issue that concerns me about Apple is 63% of their net revenue comes from one product, the iPhone. Which is why I would like to see either the Apple Watch or an Apple TV with a streaming service really take off, one if not both would be nice. iPad and Mac people just don't need to upgrade as often. Would really like to see and iPad Pro this fall.
I believe Apple right now is the one and only company that could break the death grip the cable companies have on the public.
Shares could also be impacted by next-generation iPhones, the analysts said. Upcoming devices -- typically referred to as the iPhone 6s and 6s Plus -- are expected to be just modest improvements over current iPhones, adding faster processors, more RAM, better cameras, and Force Touch, but nothing inherently revolutionary. The products should ship sometime this fall, most likely in late September.
This just made me laugh. "It's just a modest update because the only differences are better camera, faster processors, more RAM and Force Touch". Meaning "the outside is the same, so it is just a modest update".
In other words, "revolutionary" means "different shape".
If Force Touch is not revolutionary, then by the same logic, there hasn't been anything revolutionary since the first iPhone.
I just can't get over how stupid the paragraph reads. I need to Major in "Analyst Logic" to understand all this.
If Force Touch is not revolutionary, then by the same logic, there hasn't been anything revolutionary since the first iPhone.
I just can't get over how stupid the paragraph reads. I need to Major in "Analyst Logic" to understand all this.
I was pretty surprised to just read that another phone to be announced in the next 30 days also reportedly has "Force Touch". I had assumed this was an Apple invention but apparently not?
Comments
I just took the opportunity to buy a few thousand dollars of long term options on Apple.
I really need to get a job as an analyst. If the stock goes up, upgrade the stock. If the stock goes down, downgrade the stock. You never need to actually predict anything.
I get that the expectations are always greater for Apple, but Apple continues to deliver. Articles treating the upgrades in the 'S' models as minor upgrades is silly. The phone may have the same case, but that doesn't mean the upgrades are minor.
Oh I'm sold... Even though I'm down about 10k this past week on AAPL, I wish I had more money to buy.
Apple is a one trick pony. iPhone is Apple..........
but guess what?
Last quarter Apple's NON-iPhone revenue was GREATER than Google's TOTAL REVENUE.
Apples NON-iPhone Revenue > Entire Google revenue
Think about that.
Google's TOTAL revenue last quarter was $17.7 billion.
Apple's NON-iPhone revenue last quarter was $18.2 billion (Mac, Services, Watch, iPad)
Bottom line is Apple's NON-iPhone units made the same profit as Google last quarter.
Google's market cap is $440 billion.
Should not Apple's NON-iPhone revenue be valued the same amount? Lets say we value it at 75% of Google's value.
So Apple's NON-iPhone revenue is worth $330 billion in market cap.
Apple has $150 in Net cash. Apple has already paid $25 billion in taxes on that amount. That means the cash net of taxes is $120 billion.
So the value of the NON-Phone business and Cash net of taxes is $450 billion.
That means the iPhone business is only worth $200 billion.
Apple is going to make $53 billion in profit for FY2015.
75% of that profit is from iPhone. So iPhone is going to make just under $40 billion this year.
So the iPhone unit is being valued with a PE of 5.
No convincing me. I'm sold. Even though I'm down about 10k these past two weeks, I wish I had more money to buy.
I agree with you. But Wall Street doesn't. No matter what Apple does it's not enough. The Watch isn't an instant iPhone 6 type hit so it's deemed a failure and Wall Street is already looking for the next thing. ?TV will come out and Wall Street will yawn because it doesn't revolutionize TV as we know it. Even though we all know it's the content companies standing in th way of innovation in this space, not Apple. No matter what Apple does it will never be good enough.
What "recent struggles"?
Gamble on everyone.
More apt would be OK Google you conquered search what's next? But apparently Wall Street thinks search and Excel are commodities that people will always need and can never be disrupted.
The religion that's demanding that is called economics (it would be too much honor to call it a pseudo science).
God created economists to make meteorologists look good.
Badaboomp
It was priced for zero growth a few years back too and ... Then it grew. Worth getting in I think.
I love how the articles regarding the 'S' models always downplay the model and say the improvements are minor...The 5S was a significant update over the 5. It brought the 64 bit chip, and Touch ID onboard paving the way for Apple Pay.
I believe the 6S will also introduce some significant new capabilities. We are still waiting to see the fruit of several Apple acquisitions including PrimeSense.
It seems that at the current price, that there is already little or no earnings growth built in. The stock is not priced for growing revenue, or declining revenue but flat line, stagnant sales numbers. But Apple has never had the benefit of a high PE ratio. It hasn't made much difference to long term stockholders since of course they've done quite well, but it's always felt like a collective F-you from Wall Street. I don't expect that attitude to ever change really, it seems so deeply ingrained. It's like they still think of Apple as this hippie, rebel California cult that's out to get the establishment even though they now have the largest market cap in the world.
... hmm, they might be right.
I love how the articles regarding the 'S' models always downplay the model and say the improvements are minor. The only things that are not updated are the enclosure and maybe a wireless chip or 2. If force touch is added, and the already good camera is vastly improved and the new CPU is faster and more efficient and the GPUs are better and the display is better then it is a significant update. The 5S was a significant update over the 5. It brought the 64 bit chip, and Touch ID onboard paving the way for Apple Pay.
To be fair, the most compelling features are introduced with the whole number models, as well as the latest designs. Take the 4S to 5 jump. The 5 introduced a new larger screen. For many people that was a big deal. But Touch ID and 64 bit chip weren't things that could immediately be utilized, as ?Pay wasn't in use, and there was little software that took advantage of the 6 bit architecture. So there was nothing particularly compelling that was driving a stampede to the store to upgrade. And likewise for the 5S to the 6. Personally, I didn't upgrade to the 5 because I didn't want or need a bigger screen. I ended up buying a 5S after the 6 came out with an even larger screen. And I didn't know what I was missing with Touch ID, just to unlock my phone.
That said, every annual update to the iPhone outsells the previous, regardless of how immediately relevant or compelling the updates. So the fact that these analysts continue to downplay the "S" models is indeed a mystery.
They will say whatever fits their agenda.
If you think these analyst are out there to HELP the public you are mistaken.
They are out there to manipulate the public to buy/sell shares at the exact wrong time.
Oil futures is another good example. The US is using about the same amount of gas we used in the last 1970's and the market whores keep trying to drive up the price. Finally our supply is so far ahead of the demand as hard as they try they can't keep the price of a barrel where they want it.
The only issue that concerns me about Apple is 63% of their net revenue comes from one product, the iPhone. Which is why I would like to see either the Apple Watch or an Apple TV with a streaming service really take off, one if not both would be nice. iPad and Mac people just don't need to upgrade as often. Would really like to see and iPad Pro this fall.
I believe Apple right now is the one and only company that could break the death grip the cable companies have on the public.
Shares could also be impacted by next-generation iPhones, the analysts said. Upcoming devices -- typically referred to as the iPhone 6s and 6s Plus -- are expected to be just modest improvements over current iPhones, adding faster processors, more RAM, better cameras, and Force Touch, but nothing inherently revolutionary. The products should ship sometime this fall, most likely in late September.
This just made me laugh. "It's just a modest update because the only differences are better camera, faster processors, more RAM and Force Touch". Meaning "the outside is the same, so it is just a modest update".
In other words, "revolutionary" means "different shape".
If Force Touch is not revolutionary, then by the same logic, there hasn't been anything revolutionary since the first iPhone.
I just can't get over how stupid the paragraph reads. I need to Major in "Analyst Logic" to understand all this.