Web traffic points to slow but steady Apple Watch interest, UBS says

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  • Reply 21 of 42
    mac_128mac_128 Posts: 3,454member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by jungmark View Post





    Was the original iPod a halo product? I don't think it was.



    Of course it was. You needed a PC to use it. If you liked the iPod, then you'd be more likely to try a Mac.

  • Reply 22 of 42
    jungmarkjungmark Posts: 6,926member
    mac_128 wrote: »

    Of course it was. You needed a PC to use it. If you liked the iPod, then you'd be more likely to try a Mac.

    Saying that and proving it are two different things. Were people buying more macs because of the iPod or because the iMacs were getting better and better on their own?

    Besides the iPod was Mac only at first.
  • Reply 23 of 42
    yojimbo007yojimbo007 Posts: 1,165member
    Use one and you wont put it away.. Ever.!
    You may want more polished and imporived functionality in some areas.. ( natural for all new products ) .. But nevertheless u will be addicted to it.
    Try it.. Then decide!
  • Reply 24 of 42
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Elian Gonzalez View Post

     

     

    In other words, perfect for *you* from the very outset. The proverbial grand slam with little effort. I don't mean to be facetious, but it seems that analyst expectations (often derided) seem to quietly mirror techie boy expectations, minus the self-awareness. 




    I don't know about you but I tend to buy products and services that are "perfect for me" I assume you do the same unless you are buying someone a gift then that item is perfect for someone else. I have been buying Apple products since the first Power Mac running Mac OS 7.x, I consider myself an early adopter. There was a lot of complaints about the first iPhone, (could not copy and paste, etc...) this did not deter me from seeing it as a radically new device which would change the way we communicate. Apple Watch is in its present form an accessory to the iPhone, a shortcut to alerts, a close up Siri device, a fitness monitor, and a few other nice but not important functions. The first iPhone made all other phones obsolete overnight, Steve Jobs said of it on its unveiling, "it's an iPod, and internet device and a mobile phone". Apple Watch is not a mainstream product (yet) and interest in it will remain tepid outside of tech - prosumers. 

  • Reply 25 of 42
    thepixeldocthepixeldoc Posts: 2,257member
    sinus tree wrote: »

    I don't know about you but I tend to buy products and services that are "perfect for me" I assume you do the same unless you are buying someone a gift then that item is perfect for someone else. I have been buying Apple products since the first Power Mac running Mac OS 7.x, I consider myself an early adopter. There was a lot of complaints about the first iPhone, (could not copy and paste, etc...) this did not deter me from seeing it as a radically new device which would change the way we communicate. Apple Watch is in its present form an accessory to the iPhone, a shortcut to alerts, a close up Siri device, a fitness monitor, and a few other nice but not important functions. The first iPhone made all other phones obsolete overnight, Steve Jobs said of it on its unveiling, "it's an iPod, and internet device and a mobile phone". Apple Watch is not a mainstream product (yet) and interest in it will remain tepid outside of tech - prosumers. 

    Until your doctor or even more likely, your insurance company requests that you and many others start to monitor their health and afflictions.

    From a link on another thread from our current Google Expert @GatorGuy:

    https://medium.com/backchannel/buried-in-the-wordplay-life-sciences-graduates-from-google-x-146d221c5732
    The flagship venture at Life Sciences is a bold attempt at early disease detection that involves releasing smart nanoparticles in the bloodstream, which can identify markers of nascent heath issues, and signal the user through a wearable device. Conrad describes the system as similar to the Star Trek “Tricorder” which instantly diagnoses one’s ailments. He’s working with Stanford and MIT.
  • Reply 26 of 42
    foggyhillfoggyhill Posts: 4,767member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by sinus tree View Post

     



    I don't know about you but I tend to buy products and services that are "perfect for me" I assume you do the same unless you are buying someone a gift then that item is perfect for someone else. I have been buying Apple products since the first Power Mac running Mac OS 7.x, I consider myself an early adopter. There was a lot of complaints about the first iPhone, (could not copy and paste, etc...) this did not deter me from seeing it as a radically new device which would change the way we communicate. Apple Watch is in its present form an accessory to the iPhone, a shortcut to alerts, a close up Siri device, a fitness monitor, and a few other nice but not important functions. The first iPhone made all other phones obsolete overnight, Steve Jobs said of it on its unveiling, "it's an iPod, and internet device and a mobile phone". Apple Watch is not a mainstream product (yet) and interest in it will remain tepid outside of tech - prosumers. 


     

    That's still 25-35M sales per year, next year for Apple, and almost no sales for others in the same bracket. With 95%+ of profits. Apple preemptively blocked the high market and boosted its ecosystem's worth significantly for people in the high part of the phone market. That alone would be a good move if they weren't already making billions in profits in the first year.  Apple had a very small impact outside the high end of the consumer market until the 3GS came around and the sales curve really went up. The Watch even in its first year will have more impact. I think people are getting more and more jaded; an Apple Watch was unthinkable 8 years ago, but now it is... Ohh, he doesn't have a tri-corder... Must means it sucks...

  • Reply 27 of 42



    I understand your point but the fact is Apple has investors, lots of them. Investors do not want the gravy train to stop, this is why the article regarding calling Apple a "mature" company or mature stock got people riled up recently. Investors want to see constant growth usually unrealistic growth each quarter. This unfortunately is how it works when you get as big and important as Apple has become. Investors are constantly looking for the first cracks in the wall so they can sell off and move to a company who's stock has more growth potential. Apple may have felt pressured into getting this device to market ahead of the others. The iPhone was not the only phone on the market when it was release but it made all other mobile phones obsolete. The iPod had iTunes when it was release and an eco-system which Apple still benefits from today. Apple Watch may follow the iPad as a product with short legs and quick saturation. I am not an Apple engineer so I don't know what is possible with Apple Watch or what it will become in the next year or two. My reaction to it as a long time customer was, I don't need this, I don't want this. Others will feel the same about this device despite the early sales and what appear to the average person as a lot of profit. One thing that intelligent people need to do is question the status quo. Apple has become the status quo, no longer the underdog yet many people that read Appleinsider still react to negative comments like it is the 1990's. 

  • Reply 28 of 42
    foggyhillfoggyhill Posts: 4,767member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by sinus tree View Post

     



    I understand your point but the fact is Apple has investors, lots of them. Investors do not want the gravy train to stop, this is why the article regarding calling Apple a "mature" company or mature stock got people riled up recently. Investors want to see constant growth usually unrealistic growth each quarter. This unfortunately is how it works when you get as big and important as Apple has become. Investors are constantly looking for the first cracks in the wall so they can sell off and move to a company who's stock has more growth potential. Apple may have felt pressured into getting this device to market ahead of the others. The iPhone was not the only phone on the market when it was release but it made all other mobile phones obsolete. The iPod had iTunes when it was release and an eco-system which Apple still benefits from today. Apple Watch may follow the iPad as a product with short legs and quick saturation. I am not an Apple engineer so I don't know what is possible with Apple Watch or what it will become in the next year or two. My reaction to it as a long time customer was, I don't need this, I don't want this. Others will feel the same about this device despite the early sales and what appear to the average person as a lot of profit. One thing that intelligent people need to do is question the status quo. Apple has become the status quo, no longer the underdog yet many people that read Appleinsider still react to negative comments like it is the 1990's. 


     

    That still doesn'T explain a PE ratio of 8 without the cash, nothing in the realm of logic does; doesn't explain Amazon's idiotic PE ratio either.

     

    Is Amazon small? I don't think so.

    Mature? 21 years and counting.

    Mature industry? Online shopping is older than the smart phone industry.

    Diversified? Not really.

    High margin. Nope.

    Huge advantage in pricing? Not lately that I've seen.

    Superior service? Nooooo.

    Faster growing than Apple before, now or in the future? Not at all in the past and probably not in the future.

    Does it have massive competition? More than ever.

    Are margins increasing, they're not.

    Do they have a huge ace in the hole for revenues and/or margins in the next 5 years, don't think so.

     

    So, in the tech horizon of 5-6 year (beyond that you go into fantasy scenarios) is not looking much different from the last 5-6.

     

    So, yes, give it a off the chart PE even if they'd need 60% of the whole US retail market for it to make sense... Following me here.

     

    Are forays into entertainment really that profitable? On the whole its a long term crapshoot except as a adjunct to their retail business (which is where Prime comes in). Only using their backend for businesses right now offer hope of high profits, and even there they got Microsoft as a big competition.

     

    What they got is basically a crapload of capital investment/infrastructure which provides a big barrier of entry if someone wants to cover as broadly as it does. But, competitors don't really have too, especially if they offer better service.

     

    So, how on earth does anything explain Apple's stock price except "I don't understand one thing about this scary black swan company", thinking from big investors. Remember, what you're saying is exactly the thing people said : 3 years ago! Yet, they were beyond wrong and if you had sold your stock then, you'd have been an idiot!

  • Reply 29 of 42
    thompr wrote: »
    I have an ? Watch too, and I really enjoy it.  But I have no idea what you are talking about when you say that you use your ? Watch to "reference something" and then use your iPhone, iPad, or MacBook to "pick up EXACTLY where" you left off.

    Can you give an example?  I think perhaps I'm missing out on some capabilities or some apps, because I'm not doing what you're doing.

    Whenever you have an app open on your ? Watch, go to your iPhone lock screen and you'll see the symbol of the app you're using on the bottom-left corner of the screen. Drag it up, similar to the camera unlock motion, enter your code or fingerprint and the app will open, displaying exactly what you were doing on your ? Watch, in the exact same spot. Or if your iPhone is unlocked already, double-click the home button and go all the way to the left. Same goes for your MacBook. At the far left of your dock it will show up. I really feel this is an incredibly useful feature, and it works across all of your devices, creating a feel of one big screen being shared by everything you use. iOS 8 and Yosemite are AWESOME!!
  • Reply 30 of 42

    "So, how on earth does anything explain Apple's stock price except "I don't understand one thing about this scary black swan company", thinking from big investors. Remember, what you're saying is exactly the thing people said : 3 years ago! Yet, they were beyond wrong and if you had sold your stock then, you'd have been an idiot!"

     

    ?I don't think anyone sees Apple as a "scary black swan company" I do think there are people that will profit by telling the world it is doomed. I have friend that was a trader, (now retired) I asked him if he made more money when stocks went up? He told me "I make money either way, when my client buy or sell". Nothing is worse to those that run the market than a stagnant stock. Rumors get some investors on board and some jumping ship. The "experts" that we often call hacks are just stirring it up to get stocks to move. 

     

    It may not be possible for Apple to make a blockbuster device every two years, it really doesn't have to. The Apple Watch is a device to enhance the eco-system or products and services and not the entry into a whole new market. I don't think that the big shots at Apple expected anything more from it. However investors are hoping for the next high with insane numbers from this new device. My personal belief is the Apple Watch is a nerd product as it is right now. Perhaps milenials will take to it since they are constantly involved with the smart phone already. 

  • Reply 31 of 42
    foggyhill wrote: »
    an Apple Watch was unthinkable 8 years ago, but now it is... Ohh, he doesn't have a tri-corder... Must means it sucks...

    That is so true! That reaction is all-too common from people. What exactly is everyone expecting something this small to actually be able to do? It's amazing for its size already, and the tech is just starting out.
  • Reply 32 of 42
    thompr wrote: »
    I think perhaps I'm missing out on some capabilities or some apps, because I'm not doing what you're doing.

    I feel I HAVE to recommend the news360 app for the ? Watch. It is really great for following absolutely anything that exists in the world that interests you and the best experience I find for it is on the ? Watch. They just released an update for it and it is just a pleasure to use now. Also, I am not sure what you are "into" exactly, but I am a huge Toronto Blue Jays nerd and I follow the games on my ? Watch with the MLB app. If I want to expand the screen I use handoff to open it up on my iPhone or iPad. Anyway, just sayin'. ????
  • Reply 33 of 42

    While the iPhone changed consumer products history the debut Apple watch changed nothing because it is mainly redundant to the phone and the hours long battery life is a deal breaker. The health related things it does outside of the iPhone duplication are available in a simpler version at less cost. Oh, and Apple pay is still not ready for prime time, meaning its not yet available in China and many USA retailers wont accept it at their check out because they want to capture their customers data, rather than hand it over to Apple. The next Apple watch in development is not tethered to the iPhone, so the wrong direction has been realized by Mr. Cook as well.

  • Reply 34 of 42
    jungmarkjungmark Posts: 6,926member
    While the iPhone changed consumer products history the debut Apple watch changed nothing because it is mainly redundant to the phone and the hours long battery life is a deal breaker. The health related things it does outside of the iPhone duplication are available in a simpler version at less cost. Oh, and Apple pay is still not ready for prime time, meaning its not yet available in China and many USA retailers wont accept it at their check out because they want to capture their customers data, rather than hand it over to Apple. The next Apple watch in development is not tethered to the iPhone, so the wrong direction has been realized by Mr. Cook as well.
    Wrong direction?

    Was Jobs wrong to tether the iPod to the Mac when it was released?
  • Reply 35 of 42

    The Apple watch in development doesn't tether to the iPhone. It's my opinion Cook went that way (180 degrees from the launch watch) for a reason stemming from reasons connected to the redundancy of a mini phone on your wrist tied to a maxi phone in your pocket makes no sense to most of us regular folks.

  • Reply 36 of 42
    jungmarkjungmark Posts: 6,926member
    The Apple watch in development doesn't tether to the iPhone. It's my opinion Cook went that way (180 degrees from the launch watch) for a reason stemming from reasons connected to the redundancy of a mini phone on your wrist tied to a maxi phone in your pocket makes no sense to most of us regular folks.

    Someone can opine that the world is flat. It doesn't make it true.

    You don't think Cook et al had a product roadmap already in place?
  • Reply 37 of 42

    If the original watch format was correct they would just improve it with an update (i.e. iPhone 4, 4S, 5, 5S, 6, 6S, etc) rather than totally re-invent the philosophy of the device.

  • Reply 38 of 42
    jungmarkjungmark Posts: 6,926member
    If the original watch format was correct they would just improve it with an update (i.e. iPhone 4, 4S, 5, 5S, 6, 6S, etc) rather than totally re-invent the philosophy of the device.

    Why'd you leave out the original iPhone or 3G on your list? Are you saying those were wrong?
  • Reply 39 of 42

    Not at all, just to clarify; i.e. means for example, right? I didn't include because I already made my point (in my i.e.) to your error in thought.

    I can see why you have over 5000 posts...

  • Reply 40 of 42
    jungmark wrote: »
    Someone can opine that the world is flat. It doesn't make it true.

    You don't think Cook et al had a product roadmap already in place?

    Don't you know by now that Apple shoots from the hip and releases products based on collective brain-farts around the corner from Jony Ive's lab? :rolleyes:
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