From a marketing standpoint, I think it would be difficult to differentiate between the current iPad Air 2 and the iPad Air 3. The iPad Air 2 was built with iOS 9 in mind - most of the upgrades in the iPad Air 2 weren't all that impressive until the announcement of iOS 9. As an owner of an iPad Air, I really didn't see the need to upgrade on release, but now with iOS 9 I am covetous of the multitasking ability. Still, I am looking to upgrade to an iPad Pro as opposed to a new iPad Air. My iPhone 6+ has supplanted my original iPad Mini, but if I was concerned about size, I would be more likely to purchase an iPad Mini 4 than a newer iPad Air.
For the most part, it just seems people pushing for an iPad Air 3 are more motivated by the need to buy the newest model rather than objectively looking at the gains in a new product. iOS 9 is designed around the iPad Air 2, I am not really sure there would be much of an upgrade to the iPad Air 2 that would have an appreciable difference to the operation of iOS 9 other than some small performance gains.
I'm in the market for an iPad mini for my middle-school student. Coupled with a Bluetooth keyboard and external display I hope it will provide a "mini" laptop experience. But I'm waiting until the mini is refreshed to the latest chips. I just hope there is a model without the fingerprint reader. Don't need it. Don't want it. Don't want to pay for it.
I don't see the need to have a faster iPad - my iPad Air 2 is blazing fast and it should last for more than three years. My mother still uses original iPad Retina Display. It's still snappy and responsive.
But MacBooks/iMacs have MUCH higher price points and margins.
Mac average selling price is $1300.
iPad average selling price is $450.
iPad has lower margins than Mac. So basically you need to sell 3 or more iPads to make the same profit as a single Mac.
As an outside investor... sure... one would like to get the margins up to 100% for ever and ever.
But the reality's of business, if Apples is making money on the product, it is popular / one of the largest seller etc, margins may be lower (and likely will be in the future as these things can only be improved so much / competition).
As for me, probably time to turn in my iPad2. Was hoping there would be an Air3 this year, but if not... looks like Apple future proofed the A2 pretty well.
No doubt the iPad Mini has lower margins than the full size iPad, but you don't have any idea what those really are. You do not know if full size iPad margins are better or worse than Mac. Just like you have no idea how much R&D and manufacturing costs Apple has to bring in a new version of the full size iPad (e.g. is saving some 10's of millions on the HW update expenses better than having a new model to keep interest up).
While there is a line of argument that the iPad line is maturing, and the Air 2 is performant enough, that they don't have to update it this year. That may be the case - Apple does things like sometimes and never explains it. However, as noted, they don't do that with the Mac, and if Apple is trying to stop the decline and grow the iPad line, not updating the flagship product seems a poor way to go about it. You cite how bad the Mini is to the bottom line - then how is updating the Mini but not the full size going to help? Regardless of what updates the Mini gets (e.g. maybe it gets the A8X from last year), the fact is the broader consumer only knows that the Mini is new and the Air is old. That only increases Mini sales, and per your view, greatly depresses margins.
The R&D and manufacturing tooling/process costs to update an established line like the Air 2 - especially if the case/dimensions are untouched - would not be astronomical. All that is needed to keep an Air 3 fresh is getting the A9, better cameras, improved battery, and possibly some improvements to the screen. This keeps the Air line the most desired.
We don't know exactly what R&D is. But we do know there are many costs associated with iPad just like any other hardware device Apple sells. All I know it costs at least $50 per unit in R&D/Sales/Admin costs. At least.
How do you know this for a fact, when Apple does not report R&D/SG&A separately for each product line?
If Apple won't come out with a new iPad they will lose more market share. It's electronics where we are talking about meaning: brought to market today is old fashioned tomorrow. As a longtime apple user (since 1988) I find Apple lagging seen the few products they make with comparable tech companies. I personally don't like the tactics Samsung uses but I have to give them credit in being the top dog in almost every category they are active in. Ssd-hd, oled and led tv's, chips, frigirators and you name it. Apple is slow lately and I think that's why their stocks are down too. I really hope force touch and other technology they introduce will be a game changer, otherwise I'll see dark days ahead. Oh, and I really want an retina iMac 21,5 inch. Has been soooo long for a decent refresh %uD83D%uDE1C
I'm in the market for an iPad mini for my middle-school student. Coupled with a Bluetooth keyboard and external display I hope it will provide a "mini" laptop experience. But I'm waiting until the mini is refreshed to the latest chips. I just hope there is a model without the fingerprint reader. Don't need it. Don't want it. Don't want to pay for it.
From experience, I wouldn't recommend a mini + BT keyboard combination *IF* the keyboard is designed for the mini. The problem being that the keyboard is far too narrow for comfortable typing...If it's just a standard BT keyboard (and not an iPad Mini specific keyboard/case/folio) - something along the lines of the Logitech Keys-To-Go that will simply be a companion to the mini, then it's fine. A keyboard case/folio for an Air/Air2 is a much better typing experience due to the additional width of the keyboard - very easy to type on and barely narrower than a standard keyboard.
I know many people here say "if you need a keyboard with your iPad you're using it wrong" - but I disagree. I don't use mine all the time, but when I need to type anything longer than a few sentences with my iPad Air, the BT keyboard is fantastic and significantly faster...but far from an everyday need for my usage patterns...
So I guess what I'm saying is that keyboards designed for the mini are too small for comfortable typing and if that's a key (pun intended) need, then consider either a standalone/portable BT keyboard for the mini *OR* an Air/Air2 instead of the mini with a keyboard case (I use the Logitech Ultrathin).
Just my CAD$0.02 which isn't worth nearly as much as it used to. Take my advice or not, I'm not offended either way. I know what works well for me may not work well for others.
Well, if I state my opinion about not refreshing electronics every year and called a troll... I find that rather disappointing. Apple is having difficulties with its iPad line. So not refreshing or updating wouldn't be a good idea. If not a big refresh they should keep it up to date with at least the A9 processor in it when the new iPhone comes out. If I can't express my personal opinion here without name calling, this isn't the site or people I want to be with. Would you say the same when Apple wouldn't upgrade the iPhone every year?
Well, at least there's quality competition in the Surface tablets, if Apple's just going to let the lineup stagnate. The logic of "oh the upgrade cycle" is bogus; people don't buy Macs every two years but Apple does both yearly and in some cases twice a year upgrades with them.
I know, I think the iPad mini last year has put a bad ideal in people's heads.
Every PC will be a tablet in a few years time. The tablet is the 'end' result of the PC evolution, because it's the most minimalist form that has all of the functionality. The computer will evolve after that of course, but several key technologies need to make a big step before this happens.
The problem is stagnation. A big part of the initial excitement was the almost seamless experience going from the iPhone to the iPad. Now, the slowness of my iPad mini compared to my iPhone creates a great deal of aggravation. I literally have to slow my reflexes down. The solution is to get the performance of the iPads, particularly iPad minis, back up.
The refreshes on iPads aren't comparable to the refreshes on iPhones. I would buy a new iPad every two years if they would refresh them to the same extent as my iPhones. I have an original iPad mini because the two refreshes so far are minimal. The retina screen and Touch ID weren't enough by themselves. Why buy a new mini without a decent increase in power? My iPhone gets a new or improved chip every year making it more capable. The iPad, not so much. I also think this new refresh of the mini with iPad Air 2 'guts' is uninspiring. It's only getting enough upgrade to run iOS 9. Why not the fastest chip and RAM memory increase?
In the end, I'll get the new mini as it's my daily driver and my old one is too slow to run iOS 9 and newer apps at a snappy pace.
Then the CFO mentioned that the iPadMini has weaker margins than the iPad.
So iPadMini gross margins is probably sub 20%.
iPadMini $399
Gross Profit $100
SG&A including R&D $50
Profit $50
Apple is much better off not selling the Mini and having people choose either the 6+ or regular iPad instead.
Your assumptions are wild, and most likely Apple would say wildly inaccurate. Plus I love how you cherry pick your numbers, such as using the cheapest mini in your calculations to argue your position!
The quote you reference is regarding the iPad product line from 2010 to March 2012 (more than three years ago), and covers a range, such that each model will be somewhere along the range. The comment about the iPad mini having smaller margins than the rest of the line was also from 2012, and was in reference to the iPad mini 1 (and it quantified *nothing* specific of the range as it existed then, yet oddly that didn't prevent you from putting a number to it!? - you know not even whether the ranges overlap!). Conveniently, you omit the rest of the sentence from the CFO, "we are beginning at the top of the cost curve [with this new product], but we are going to work to get down the cost curves and be more efficient in manufacturing." Meaning, we know nothing what the margin is today, but still you jump, Jump, JUMP! to making wild assumptions about the entire product line's current cost, profit, expenses and margin based on a few old comments and conclude (CONCLUDE!?) the mini must therefore be canned. How utterly bizarre.
If cost accounting and product strategy/pricing were so easy! With all due respect, those disciplines are much more complex and nuanced, there are many more variables than the napkin scratchings you share here. We know nothing of the value Apple places on each mini customer. It is true for example that each mini customer *may* have opted for a more expensive iPad Air if there were no mini available, but much more likely (and this is the big fear and most likely one reason Apple launched the mini) is that without a mini on offer each customer would instead opt for a non-Apple mini-sized tablet. That's just one small example of the types of things Apple would look at when considering what to do with a product. Other things would be that R&D declines over the life of a product, plus the tablet market is changing (dramatically!).
You're using the same (overly simplistic) logic (based on what I can only characterise as false assumptions) you used when you argued that Apple should kill the iPod line earlier this year, because that product wasn't worth Apple's time and effort. Strangely these "kill this product or else" strategy of yours seems to coincide with those products which you seem to dislike, or perhaps I'm wrong and it just seems that way?
My money is on Apple's expertise for building products which contribute to an overall highly profitable corporation, so if they determine it's in their best interest to update the mini and keep it in the product line, I'd bet there are very good reasons which your calculations have wildly missed.
If they do update the mini (I hope they do!), I'm updating mine this year. If they don't, I'm not buying an Air (already have one) so I'll not be buying a new iPad this year, Apple loses out on an iPad sale. I'd be mildly disappointed but the gen 2 mini I'm currently using is still very fast, I'm just hoping for a thinner, lighter weight version of what is a beautiful device. If they release a Pro (or "jumbo" version iPad) I might just buy one of those too, and dump my current iPad Air. Can't seem to get rid of the mini utility, despite having a 6+, its size is just too perfect for too many things, I love it, even more than my Air (but both have utility for me).
I have an Air 2. Love it. It's fast. Been waiting for split view, etc, for awhile now. I can really use that for the type of workflow I have. Well, iOS 9 will deliver this, an other enhancements, in spades! Thus, the Air 2 will become, essentially, a brand new machine. This is why they put the A8X in it last year; they were planning to enhance the Air 2 with software next, and needed the extra processing power. They did it right to begin with so that they would not have to repeat the iPad 3-then-4 debacle. This is why, I think, they really don't need an Air 3 this year. Everything old is new again! Force Touch? That will come to the new iPhones, and I believe, to the iPad Pro. The Pro will probably get a stylus too. Confining Force Touch in this way will push sales of those three devices through the roof, which is what Apple wants. The mini 4 update brings it into parity with the Air 2, with the same hardware and software enhancements. Force touch will come to them in 2016. From past experience we know this is the Apple way, This will be an excellent lineup. No complaints here. Let's see how it turns out, but I think this is what we will see.
It would be a big mistake for Apple not to release an iPad Air 3 this Fall, unless they're OK with losing even more tablet market share than they already have. A 12" iPad Pro will only be a niche product. Apple can't afford to stop pushing the envelope in their primary iPad category.
It would be a big mistake for Apple not to release an iPad Air 3 this Fall, unless they're OK with losing even more tablet market share than they already have. A 12" iPad Pro will only be a niche product. Apple can't afford to stop pushing the envelope in their primary iPad category.
"Pushing the envelope" to do what exactly? The market is maturing to the point that there is little left for these devices to do they don't already provide, not to say that there aren't advances to come, but to expect innovation such that a yearly "wow" update is delivered is unrealistic.
It's certainly not uncommon for people to claim disappointment with Apple (and other manufacturers who must abide by the same laws of physics and technology) but all I see are complaints and no real *realistic* ideas of what they would like to see in these products. Last year they turned the iPad into a big camera, that was their "big innovative feature" which for many of us (possibly most), it was a ho-hum update (more interesting was thinner and faster), but that was most of the update, not to criticise them because I think there was nothing else they could incorporate into the product that they didn't already or chose not to include.
At this point I would expect point updates in specs (small improvements), thinner, lighter weight, better battery life. Beyond that, there is a reason they released a watch and are looking at a car, those are the big areas of innovation for them with big "wows" and potentially huge growth. The existing segments, while there are advances to be had, will not see again the big changes, at least not regularly.
I don't agree with this. For what I do, a new tablet every year is a very good thing, as long as the performance is significantly better. The only one I didn't get, for several reasons, was the iPad 4.
Actually what Apple should be doing is "tick-tocking" between the Air and the Mini. eg Release a new iPad Air with the same generation CPU/GPU as the iPhone, the following year, put the iPhone "S" parts in the Mini for that year, third year, release the next "numbered" iPad Air, etc.
Like selling both the Air and the Mini as "new" for that year is likely "cannibalizing" sales as people are seeing them the same way they see the iPhone 6 Plus and iPhone 6, eg they are seeing them as equivalent with just a different screen size, when that isn't the case.
We're going to hit the "Moores Law" wall anytime now, so things aren't going to get any smaller, lighter, more energy efficient unless it comes from the battery technology alone. Once we hit that wall, there will be no more die shrinks, a change in process/stacking/materials yes, but things aren't going to get physically smaller.
This is why every time you hear a rumor about Apple putting the A-series ARM CPU's in their desktop is completely off-base. The ARM parts -are- already made on the latest available process, and Intel will always be a step ahead. In 7 years today's iPhone and iPad will be still viable, only the radio technology will have moved on, thus necessitating an upgrade then.
Many data centers are still running "power sucking" servers from 2006 because they are reliable, many people hung onto their PPC Macs for as long as possible. You don't toss things just because something newer came out, you toss them when they don't do what you need them to do.
For all intents there hasn't been any reason to upgrade an iPhone or iPad except for the 64-bit "only" iOS switch, because all versions of the iPhone/iPad could still run the latest OS given enough free space/memory. Hence if you have an iPad2 or iPhone 4s, you can still run the current iOS. When this 64bit switch happens, anything older than the iPhone 5s, iPad Air, and iPad Mini 2 will not be able to run the latest iOS. For the sake of not looking stupid (like with the original iPad,) I don't expect Apple to force this switch until the iPhone 5s and iPhone 5c are completely out of the sales channel.
At this point I would expect point updates in specs (small improvements), thinner, lighter weight, better battery life. Beyond that, there is a reason they released a watch and are looking at a car, those are the big areas of innovation for them with big "wows" and potentially huge growth. The existing segments, while there are advances to be had, will not see again the big changes, at least not regularly.
Self-driving cars certainly has room to innovate. 2015 Tesla cars can actually do it... but I've yet to actually see it. There's too much reliance on Wireless Service Providers for it to be useful, when it's most-usefulness would actually be at highway/freeway locations where such wireless signals are pathetic or non-existent.
I actually saw a sign recently that said "DO NOT RELY ON GPS PAST THIS POINT"
Every PC will be a tablet in a few years time.
The tablet is the 'end' result of the PC evolution, because it's the most minimalist form that has all of the functionality.
The computer will evolve after that of course, but several key technologies need to make a big step before this happens.
Strongly disagree.
The Tablet PC is not the same evolution as the "Computer -> MiniComputer->Microcomputer" evolution. For that you need to look at the iPhone.
The Tablet and Smartphone devices aren't powerful. They are convenience machines. I'll draw an analogy with Star Trek.
The Original Series, had Communicators that transmitted wirelessly over the air, through space, to space ships. Currently the only hardware that does that are Satellite phones. Globalstar/Iridium phones are still larger than those flip-communicators.
In TOS and TNG and later, the PADD was more of a dumb-terminal about the size of iPad Mini (TNG). That IS something you can do now with the iPad Mini. But back in the 60's people still thought of computers as devices that can't be smaller than the size of a warehouse.
If anything current Tablet PC's have gone beyond what was imagined in StarTrek and have looped back around to the "dumb terminal" aspect with Cloud computing. You in theory are supposed to let some computer elsewhere do the heavy computing, and the iPad just shows you the result. This so far isn't possible because Wireless ISP's aren't ubiquitous, aren't fast, aren't cheap, and cloud services are also overpriced, unreliable, and subject to government wiretaps.
Comments
From a marketing standpoint, I think it would be difficult to differentiate between the current iPad Air 2 and the iPad Air 3. The iPad Air 2 was built with iOS 9 in mind - most of the upgrades in the iPad Air 2 weren't all that impressive until the announcement of iOS 9. As an owner of an iPad Air, I really didn't see the need to upgrade on release, but now with iOS 9 I am covetous of the multitasking ability. Still, I am looking to upgrade to an iPad Pro as opposed to a new iPad Air. My iPhone 6+ has supplanted my original iPad Mini, but if I was concerned about size, I would be more likely to purchase an iPad Mini 4 than a newer iPad Air.
For the most part, it just seems people pushing for an iPad Air 3 are more motivated by the need to buy the newest model rather than objectively looking at the gains in a new product. iOS 9 is designed around the iPad Air 2, I am not really sure there would be much of an upgrade to the iPad Air 2 that would have an appreciable difference to the operation of iOS 9 other than some small performance gains.
I'm in the market for an iPad mini for my middle-school student. Coupled with a Bluetooth keyboard and external display I hope it will provide a "mini" laptop experience. But I'm waiting until the mini is refreshed to the latest chips. I just hope there is a model without the fingerprint reader. Don't need it. Don't want it. Don't want to pay for it.
Both the Air & mini should be compatible with the ? pen. I expect them both to get the Force Touch treat. I call this rumour fiddlesticks!
The Mini might feel pressure from phablets such as the iPhone 6 Plus but the full sized iPads? I don't see it.
A new car is a every 5-10 year purchase. Perhaps Ford should wait 5-10 years to release a new Ford Fiesta.
But MacBooks/iMacs have MUCH higher price points and margins.
Mac average selling price is $1300.
iPad average selling price is $450.
iPad has lower margins than Mac. So basically you need to sell 3 or more iPads to make the same profit as a single Mac.
As an outside investor... sure... one would like to get the margins up to 100% for ever and ever.
But the reality's of business, if Apples is making money on the product, it is popular / one of the largest seller etc, margins may be lower (and likely will be in the future as these things can only be improved so much / competition).
As for me, probably time to turn in my iPad2. Was hoping there would be an Air3 this year, but if not... looks like Apple future proofed the A2 pretty well.
The iPad Mini is a bad product for Apple.
Its margins are horrible.
...
No doubt the iPad Mini has lower margins than the full size iPad, but you don't have any idea what those really are. You do not know if full size iPad margins are better or worse than Mac. Just like you have no idea how much R&D and manufacturing costs Apple has to bring in a new version of the full size iPad (e.g. is saving some 10's of millions on the HW update expenses better than having a new model to keep interest up).
While there is a line of argument that the iPad line is maturing, and the Air 2 is performant enough, that they don't have to update it this year. That may be the case - Apple does things like sometimes and never explains it. However, as noted, they don't do that with the Mac, and if Apple is trying to stop the decline and grow the iPad line, not updating the flagship product seems a poor way to go about it. You cite how bad the Mini is to the bottom line - then how is updating the Mini but not the full size going to help? Regardless of what updates the Mini gets (e.g. maybe it gets the A8X from last year), the fact is the broader consumer only knows that the Mini is new and the Air is old. That only increases Mini sales, and per your view, greatly depresses margins.
The R&D and manufacturing tooling/process costs to update an established line like the Air 2 - especially if the case/dimensions are untouched - would not be astronomical. All that is needed to keep an Air 3 fresh is getting the A9, better cameras, improved battery, and possibly some improvements to the screen. This keeps the Air line the most desired.
We don't know exactly what R&D is. But we do know there are many costs associated with iPad just like any other hardware device Apple sells. All I know it costs at least $50 per unit in R&D/Sales/Admin costs. At least.
How do you know this for a fact, when Apple does not report R&D/SG&A separately for each product line?
I'm in the market for an iPad mini for my middle-school student. Coupled with a Bluetooth keyboard and external display I hope it will provide a "mini" laptop experience. But I'm waiting until the mini is refreshed to the latest chips. I just hope there is a model without the fingerprint reader. Don't need it. Don't want it. Don't want to pay for it.
From experience, I wouldn't recommend a mini + BT keyboard combination *IF* the keyboard is designed for the mini. The problem being that the keyboard is far too narrow for comfortable typing...If it's just a standard BT keyboard (and not an iPad Mini specific keyboard/case/folio) - something along the lines of the Logitech Keys-To-Go that will simply be a companion to the mini, then it's fine. A keyboard case/folio for an Air/Air2 is a much better typing experience due to the additional width of the keyboard - very easy to type on and barely narrower than a standard keyboard.
I know many people here say "if you need a keyboard with your iPad you're using it wrong" - but I disagree. I don't use mine all the time, but when I need to type anything longer than a few sentences with my iPad Air, the BT keyboard is fantastic and significantly faster...but far from an everyday need for my usage patterns...
So I guess what I'm saying is that keyboards designed for the mini are too small for comfortable typing and if that's a key (pun intended) need, then consider either a standalone/portable BT keyboard for the mini *OR* an Air/Air2 instead of the mini with a keyboard case (I use the Logitech Ultrathin).
Just my CAD$0.02 which isn't worth nearly as much as it used to. Take my advice or not, I'm not offended either way. I know what works well for me may not work well for others.
I hope IOS 9 introduces multitasking across iPads.
I'm considering getting my first iPad, this rumor hurts it.
Either way last year the prediction was no iPad mini update, and there was a small one, so this can be disproven.
The tablet is the 'end' result of the PC evolution, because it's the most minimalist form that has all of the functionality.
The computer will evolve after that of course, but several key technologies need to make a big step before this happens.
The refreshes on iPads aren't comparable to the refreshes on iPhones. I would buy a new iPad every two years if they would refresh them to the same extent as my iPhones. I have an original iPad mini because the two refreshes so far are minimal. The retina screen and Touch ID weren't enough by themselves. Why buy a new mini without a decent increase in power? My iPhone gets a new or improved chip every year making it more capable. The iPad, not so much. I also think this new refresh of the mini with iPad Air 2 'guts' is uninspiring. It's only getting enough upgrade to run iOS 9. Why not the fastest chip and RAM memory increase?
In the end, I'll get the new mini as it's my daily driver and my old one is too slow to run iOS 9 and newer apps at a snappy pace.
The iPad Mini is a bad product for Apple.
Its margins are horrible.
In court against Samsung Apple said iPad gross margins were 23-32%.
http://www.macnn.com/articles/12/07/26/sales.profits.found.in.unsealed.apple.versus.samsung.court.docs/
Then the CFO mentioned that the iPadMini has weaker margins than the iPad.
So iPadMini gross margins is probably sub 20%.
iPadMini $399
Gross Profit $100
SG&A including R&D $50
Profit $50
Apple is much better off not selling the Mini and having people choose either the 6+ or regular iPad instead.
Your assumptions are wild, and most likely Apple would say wildly inaccurate. Plus I love how you cherry pick your numbers, such as using the cheapest mini in your calculations to argue your position!
The quote you reference is regarding the iPad product line from 2010 to March 2012 (more than three years ago), and covers a range, such that each model will be somewhere along the range. The comment about the iPad mini having smaller margins than the rest of the line was also from 2012, and was in reference to the iPad mini 1 (and it quantified *nothing* specific of the range as it existed then, yet oddly that didn't prevent you from putting a number to it!? - you know not even whether the ranges overlap!). Conveniently, you omit the rest of the sentence from the CFO, "we are beginning at the top of the cost curve [with this new product], but we are going to work to get down the cost curves and be more efficient in manufacturing." Meaning, we know nothing what the margin is today, but still you jump, Jump, JUMP! to making wild assumptions about the entire product line's current cost, profit, expenses and margin based on a few old comments and conclude (CONCLUDE!?) the mini must therefore be canned. How utterly bizarre.
If cost accounting and product strategy/pricing were so easy! With all due respect, those disciplines are much more complex and nuanced, there are many more variables than the napkin scratchings you share here. We know nothing of the value Apple places on each mini customer. It is true for example that each mini customer *may* have opted for a more expensive iPad Air if there were no mini available, but much more likely (and this is the big fear and most likely one reason Apple launched the mini) is that without a mini on offer each customer would instead opt for a non-Apple mini-sized tablet. That's just one small example of the types of things Apple would look at when considering what to do with a product. Other things would be that R&D declines over the life of a product, plus the tablet market is changing (dramatically!).
You're using the same (overly simplistic) logic (based on what I can only characterise as false assumptions) you used when you argued that Apple should kill the iPod line earlier this year, because that product wasn't worth Apple's time and effort. Strangely these "kill this product or else" strategy of yours seems to coincide with those products which you seem to dislike, or perhaps I'm wrong and it just seems that way?
My money is on Apple's expertise for building products which contribute to an overall highly profitable corporation, so if they determine it's in their best interest to update the mini and keep it in the product line, I'd bet there are very good reasons which your calculations have wildly missed.
If they do update the mini (I hope they do!), I'm updating mine this year. If they don't, I'm not buying an Air (already have one) so I'll not be buying a new iPad this year, Apple loses out on an iPad sale. I'd be mildly disappointed but the gen 2 mini I'm currently using is still very fast, I'm just hoping for a thinner, lighter weight version of what is a beautiful device. If they release a Pro (or "jumbo" version iPad) I might just buy one of those too, and dump my current iPad Air. Can't seem to get rid of the mini utility, despite having a 6+, its size is just too perfect for too many things, I love it, even more than my Air (but both have utility for me).
Edit: grammar
It would be a big mistake for Apple not to release an iPad Air 3 this Fall, unless they're OK with losing even more tablet market share than they already have. A 12" iPad Pro will only be a niche product. Apple can't afford to stop pushing the envelope in their primary iPad category.
"Pushing the envelope" to do what exactly? The market is maturing to the point that there is little left for these devices to do they don't already provide, not to say that there aren't advances to come, but to expect innovation such that a yearly "wow" update is delivered is unrealistic.
It's certainly not uncommon for people to claim disappointment with Apple (and other manufacturers who must abide by the same laws of physics and technology) but all I see are complaints and no real *realistic* ideas of what they would like to see in these products. Last year they turned the iPad into a big camera, that was their "big innovative feature" which for many of us (possibly most), it was a ho-hum update (more interesting was thinner and faster), but that was most of the update, not to criticise them because I think there was nothing else they could incorporate into the product that they didn't already or chose not to include.
At this point I would expect point updates in specs (small improvements), thinner, lighter weight, better battery life. Beyond that, there is a reason they released a watch and are looking at a car, those are the big areas of innovation for them with big "wows" and potentially huge growth. The existing segments, while there are advances to be had, will not see again the big changes, at least not regularly.
Actually what Apple should be doing is "tick-tocking" between the Air and the Mini. eg Release a new iPad Air with the same generation CPU/GPU as the iPhone, the following year, put the iPhone "S" parts in the Mini for that year, third year, release the next "numbered" iPad Air, etc.
Like selling both the Air and the Mini as "new" for that year is likely "cannibalizing" sales as people are seeing them the same way they see the iPhone 6 Plus and iPhone 6, eg they are seeing them as equivalent with just a different screen size, when that isn't the case.
We're going to hit the "Moores Law" wall anytime now, so things aren't going to get any smaller, lighter, more energy efficient unless it comes from the battery technology alone. Once we hit that wall, there will be no more die shrinks, a change in process/stacking/materials yes, but things aren't going to get physically smaller.
This is why every time you hear a rumor about Apple putting the A-series ARM CPU's in their desktop is completely off-base. The ARM parts -are- already made on the latest available process, and Intel will always be a step ahead. In 7 years today's iPhone and iPad will be still viable, only the radio technology will have moved on, thus necessitating an upgrade then.
Many data centers are still running "power sucking" servers from 2006 because they are reliable, many people hung onto their PPC Macs for as long as possible. You don't toss things just because something newer came out, you toss them when they don't do what you need them to do.
For all intents there hasn't been any reason to upgrade an iPhone or iPad except for the 64-bit "only" iOS switch, because all versions of the iPhone/iPad could still run the latest OS given enough free space/memory. Hence if you have an iPad2 or iPhone 4s, you can still run the current iOS. When this 64bit switch happens, anything older than the iPhone 5s, iPad Air, and iPad Mini 2 will not be able to run the latest iOS. For the sake of not looking stupid (like with the original iPad,) I don't expect Apple to force this switch until the iPhone 5s and iPhone 5c are completely out of the sales channel.
Self-driving cars certainly has room to innovate. 2015 Tesla cars can actually do it... but I've yet to actually see it. There's too much reliance on Wireless Service Providers for it to be useful, when it's most-usefulness would actually be at highway/freeway locations where such wireless signals are pathetic or non-existent.
I actually saw a sign recently that said "DO NOT RELY ON GPS PAST THIS POINT"
Strongly disagree.
The Tablet PC is not the same evolution as the "Computer -> MiniComputer->Microcomputer" evolution. For that you need to look at the iPhone.
The Tablet and Smartphone devices aren't powerful. They are convenience machines. I'll draw an analogy with Star Trek.
The Original Series, had Communicators that transmitted wirelessly over the air, through space, to space ships. Currently the only hardware that does that are Satellite phones. Globalstar/Iridium phones are still larger than those flip-communicators.
In TOS and TNG and later, the PADD was more of a dumb-terminal about the size of iPad Mini (TNG). That IS something you can do now with the iPad Mini. But back in the 60's people still thought of computers as devices that can't be smaller than the size of a warehouse.
If anything current Tablet PC's have gone beyond what was imagined in StarTrek and have looped back around to the "dumb terminal" aspect with Cloud computing. You in theory are supposed to let some computer elsewhere do the heavy computing, and the iPad just shows you the result. This so far isn't possible because Wireless ISP's aren't ubiquitous, aren't fast, aren't cheap, and cloud services are also overpriced, unreliable, and subject to government wiretaps.