"They (IDC) predict that Microsoft's all-but-dead-on-arrival Windows Phone 7 platform will outsell BlackBerry and, yes, the iPhone by 2015.
Four years from now, Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500) will have gained 21% of the smartphone market, IDC forecasts, up from just 5.5% at the end of this year. That's good enough for second place, trailing Google's Android OS. Windows Phone 7 is currently mired in fifth place."
This is the same firm that predicted in 2011 that Windows Phone would overtake the iPhone by 2015. Why is anyone still paying attention to these clowns?
How is the Chinese smartphone market NOT going to grow when China Mobile is busy expanding their 4G network as we speak? I believe that only 15-20% of their 800 million subscribers are on 4G now. China Mobile will hire the iPhone to push adoption and help pay for this expansion because iPhone users use data services much more than others.
Apple doesn't care about marketshare. They want to release a high quality product in many markets/locations, but total world domination has never been in their DNA.
As a collective, they sell a lot of phones. Individually, they don't have the profits. Without the profits there will come a time where individual manufacturers will be squeezed out of the market.
So essentially, they are operating a unsustainable business model.
And Ferrari doesn't compete with Kia. Nor does it want to.
Those arguments are spurious since iOS is a platform. Similar arguments were made for the Mac during its 2% of the market era. iOS is in much better shape and in fact will I think win both market share and increase unit share over the next 4 years. Proof is that IDC think they won't.
Hey IDC...how about breaking it down to companies that actually make phones instead of the fictitious company called Android you have them competing against.
If analysts tape together the myriad of handset manufacturers, ecosystems, and incompatible forks, and hide it behind the simplistic moniker of "Android", it would sound like a formidable challenger to iOS.
"They (IDC) predict that Microsoft's all-but-dead-on-arrival Windows Phone 7 platform will outsell BlackBerry and, yes, the iPhone by 2015.
Four years from now, Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500) will have gained 21% of the smartphone market, IDC forecasts, up from just 5.5% at the end of this year. That's good enough for second place, trailing Google's Android OS. Windows Phone 7 is currently mired in fifth place."
Windows Phone totally destroyed iPhone. I saw Microsoft hold a funeral for iPhone. It's officially dead. /s
Yet another speculative, uninformed IDC report. The article fails to recognize the exploding middle-class in such 'price sensitive' markets such as China and India. The new class of consumers in those markets are just as interested, if not more so, in brands and quality and user experience than US consumers. To portray those markets as perpetually 'price sensitive' (meaning impoverished) is both arrogant and ignorant of global economic and social trends.
For example, it's remarkably easy to find people on the street in China, India and Brazil using and loving FaceTime. (Yes, it helps to actually visit the places one writes about and look around.) Note to IDC: your so-called 'price-sensitive' consumers are becoming smart shoppers and totally get the difference between iOS and Android. Android remains a fragmented mess, users cannot get updates through carriers, who themselves can't resist loading up their own messy bloatware onto the phones they sell. Android remains a buggy, virus-plagued platform.
I predict that Apple will continue to increase their market share against Android in emerging markets as Apple continues to grow their distribution and sales channels. Let's compare notes again in another year, shall we?
Those arguments are spurious since iOS is a platform. Similar arguments were made for the Mac during its 2% of the market era. iOS is in much better shape and in fact will I think win both market share and increase unit share over the next 4 years. Proof is that IDC think they won't.
Part of the anti-iOS campaign has been to insinuate that iOS is (or will soon be) a niche against "standard" Android. But Android is so fractured, it's ironically the other way around for app authors and third party accessory makers, and iPhone ends up with a stronger, more popular and profitable ecosystem than Samsung, Xiaomi, or LG, let alone the larger small players like HTC, Amazon, Sony, Moto, etc, along with the (literally) tens of thousands of "white box" manufacturers in the long tail using some ancient fork derived from Gingerbread or Froyo.
You guys have it all wrong. The way to read IDC data is not to look at their predictions but the EVOLUTION of their predictions. Let me explain:
2011: IDC predicts that in 2015, Android will get 45.5% market share, iOS 15.3% and Windows Phone 20.9%.
Dec 2014: IDC predicts that in 2018, Android will get 80%, iOS 12.8% and Windows Phone 5.6% (http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS25282214). Obviously the Windows Phone upset did not happen but there is still hope for growth.
Aug 2015: IDC predicts that in 2019, Android will get 81.1%, iOS 14.2% and Windows Phone 3.6% (http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS25860315). The prospects of Windows Phone growing is fading away (-2% in 6 months!). iOS outlook looks however much better. So all in all, iOS is doing better in IDC's eyes.
Admire also the precision of the 4-year predictions. Android will get exactly 81.1% market share. Not 81%. Not 81.2%. No, sir - 81.1%! Now THAT's forecasting ;-)
Part of the anti-iOS campaign has been to insinuate that iOS is (or will soon be) a niche against "standard" Android. But Android is so fractured, it's ironically the other way around for app authors and third party accessory makers, and iPhone ends up with a stronger, more popular and profitable ecosystem than Samsung, Xiaomi, or LG, let alone the larger small players like HTC, Amazon, Sony, Moto, etc, along with the (literally) tens of thousands of "white box" manufacturers in the long tail using some ancient fork derived from Gingerbread or Froyo.
Oh yes I agree. Just saying that platform matters.
In the company I work for the android teams are continually tearing their hair out because of the fragmentation. Not screen sizes but API they can't use because the clients want 80% of the market, devices that crash because of some device/OS incompatibility, features not guaranteed on certain devices and on and on.
But still the "the iPhone is a Ferrari " is inaccurate. It's not that expensive relative to the competition and it's a platform. So market does matter. In fact I think iOS will grow by 2019. IDC are always wrong.
Fitst, their projection of Apple shipping 269 million iPhones in 2019 is a bit conservative. After selling 193 million in 2014, Apple has already sold 186 million in the first three fiscal quarters of 2015, with another 45-50 million to be sold this quarter. So that's already 230-235 million in 2015. As India and other large markets grow, cheap android phones will lead the way, and this (as stated above by Ken_Sanders) is the reason why Android will retain its high market share numbers, with Apple following on its heels absorbing high value customers and increasing unit sales each year.
But as others have stated, at least IDC has recognized that Apple doesn't care about market share, as well they shouldn't. From my own previous writings on the topic...
Market share is meaningful only when it confers some advantage not attainable otherwise. This could be economies of scale in manufacturing costs, visibility to consumers, ecosystem lock-in, greater profits, etc. Android gains no appreciable advantage from selling many more smartphones at the low-end of the market versus Apple.
Apple sells sufficient numbers of its phones to achieve enormous clout and economies of scale and associated price discounts in the manufacture of its products.
Apple is arguably more visible to consumers than Android in its position as the more desirable brand, so again, no market share advantage for Android.
The amounts of money earned by developers in the Apple ecosystem causes most developers to develop for iOS first, so no market share advantage to Android there either.
And since Apple’s iPhone earns the majority of profits in the smartphone industry, with far less market share, even this metric doesn’t support an argument that market share has any meaning with respect to Apple’s position in the market.
Yet another speculative, uninformed IDC report. The article fails to recognize the exploding middle-class in such 'price sensitive' markets such as China and India. The new class of consumers in those markets are just as interested, if not more so, in brands and quality and user experience than US consumers. To portray those markets as perpetually 'price sensitive' (meaning impoverished) is both arrogant and ignorant of global economic and social trends.
For example, it's remarkably easy to find people on the street in China, India and Brazil using and loving FaceTime. (Yes, it helps to actually visit the places one writes about and look around.) Note to IDC: your so-called 'price-sensitive' consumers are becoming smart shoppers and totally get the difference between iOS and Android. Android remains a fragmented mess, users cannot get updates through carriers, who themselves can't resist loading up their own messy bloatware onto the phones they sell. Android remains a buggy, virus-plagued platform.
I predict that Apple will continue to increase their market share against Android in emerging markets as Apple continues to grow their distribution and sales channels. Let's compare notes again in another year, shall we?
That's right too. Emerging markets are in fact as brand sensitive as they are price sensitive, if not more so.
If a phone is, relative to salary, an expensive item then you are going to spend on quality brands, for peace of mind. Low quality cheap electronic goods are fools gold in emerging markets, as you are not guaranteed any resale value, any customer care or even that it will work in a week. Status matters too but not as much as the quality guarantee inherent in brands. When you enter the middle class you buy the best brands. In smartphones that's Apple. Samsung are losing their lustre.
"They (IDC) predict that Microsoft's all-but-dead-on-arrival Windows Phone 7 platform will outsell BlackBerry and, yes, the iPhone by 2015.
Four years from now, Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500) will have gained 21% of the smartphone market, IDC forecasts, up from just 5.5% at the end of this year. That's good enough for second place, trailing Google's Android OS. Windows Phone 7 is currently mired in fifth place."
Windows Phone totally destroyed iPhone. I saw Microsoft hold a funeral for iPhone. It's officially dead. /s
Yes and at the same time I know many MS employees use the iPhone by their choice.
Of course they dare not be caught with an iPhone at work !
I predict McDonald will loose marketshare by 2019 against all other fast-food brands in the world: all of the chinese, burritos, chicken, tacos, thai, street food carts, etc, combined, will sure open more points of sale than McDonald. Then, why MCD, with their one trick pony Big Mac has a P/E of 21.4? It should be valued like AAPL: 12.1... 45% lower. Oh, wait... MCD has a net cash of -15% of its market cap, while AAPL 25%... something is wrong here, IDC...
Part of the anti-iOS campaign has been to insinuate that iOS is (or will soon be) a niche against "standard" Android. But Android is so fractured, it's ironically the other way around for app authors and third party accessory makers,
Market share is not an issue as long as it is enough to sustain the ecosystem. That was the problem back in the lean Mac years. Mac just didn't have enough market share to support professional software development. If not for Adobe and in some part, Macromedia, and also the very profitable printing and design industries, it probably would have gone under. Right now with 20% market share for iOS, and a user base that has the willingness to upgrade often, buy apps, media and accessories, there shouldn't be any concerns, but lets hope it does not fall below that level. I think that 10% is sort of a threshold that we definitely do not want to test. Somewhat surprisingly, Mac at 10% market share these days seems to be relatively robust.
I predict McDonald will loose marketshare by 2019 against all other fast-food brands in the world: all of the chinese, burritos, chicken, tacos, thai, street food carts, etc, combined, will sure open more points of sale than McDonald.
That analogy gets a little weak. @EricTheHalfBee got it right. If you compare McDonalds to the combination of every other burger restaurant in the US, McDonalds might have a similar market share as Apple does in mobile devices. You can't start throwing in Chinese food or TV sets.
Comments
"They (IDC) predict that Microsoft's all-but-dead-on-arrival Windows Phone 7 platform will outsell BlackBerry and, yes, the iPhone by 2015.
Four years from now, Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500) will have gained 21% of the smartphone market, IDC forecasts, up from just 5.5% at the end of this year. That's good enough for second place, trailing Google's Android OS. Windows Phone 7 is currently mired in fifth place."
Beat me to it, but think your link is better than the ones I found since it specifically mentions 2015.
Here are some other Nostradumbass predictions by IDC..
How is the Chinese smartphone market NOT going to grow when China Mobile is busy expanding their 4G network as we speak? I believe that only 15-20% of their 800 million subscribers are on 4G now. China Mobile will hire the iPhone to push adoption and help pay for this expansion because iPhone users use data services much more than others.
Apple doesn't care about marketshare. They want to release a high quality product in many markets/locations, but total world domination has never been in their DNA.
So essentially, they are operating a unsustainable business model.
Those arguments are spurious since iOS is a platform. Similar arguments were made for the Mac during its 2% of the market era. iOS is in much better shape and in fact will I think win both market share and increase unit share over the next 4 years. Proof is that IDC think they won't.
If analysts tape together the myriad of handset manufacturers, ecosystems, and incompatible forks, and hide it behind the simplistic moniker of "Android", it would sound like a formidable challenger to iOS.
Windows Phone totally destroyed iPhone. I saw Microsoft hold a funeral for iPhone. It's officially dead. /s
For example, it's remarkably easy to find people on the street in China, India and Brazil using and loving FaceTime. (Yes, it helps to actually visit the places one writes about and look around.) Note to IDC: your so-called 'price-sensitive' consumers are becoming smart shoppers and totally get the difference between iOS and Android. Android remains a fragmented mess, users cannot get updates through carriers, who themselves can't resist loading up their own messy bloatware onto the phones they sell. Android remains a buggy, virus-plagued platform.
I predict that Apple will continue to increase their market share against Android in emerging markets as Apple continues to grow their distribution and sales channels. Let's compare notes again in another year, shall we?
Part of the anti-iOS campaign has been to insinuate that iOS is (or will soon be) a niche against "standard" Android. But Android is so fractured, it's ironically the other way around for app authors and third party accessory makers, and iPhone ends up with a stronger, more popular and profitable ecosystem than Samsung, Xiaomi, or LG, let alone the larger small players like HTC, Amazon, Sony, Moto, etc, along with the (literally) tens of thousands of "white box" manufacturers in the long tail using some ancient fork derived from Gingerbread or Froyo.
2011: IDC predicts that in 2015, Android will get 45.5% market share, iOS 15.3% and Windows Phone 20.9%.
Dec 2014: IDC predicts that in 2018, Android will get 80%, iOS 12.8% and Windows Phone 5.6% (http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS25282214). Obviously the Windows Phone upset did not happen but there is still hope for growth.
Aug 2015: IDC predicts that in 2019, Android will get 81.1%, iOS 14.2% and Windows Phone 3.6% (http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS25860315). The prospects of Windows Phone growing is fading away (-2% in 6 months!). iOS outlook looks however much better. So all in all, iOS is doing better in IDC's eyes.
Admire also the precision of the 4-year predictions. Android will get exactly 81.1% market share. Not 81%. Not 81.2%. No, sir - 81.1%! Now THAT's forecasting ;-)
Oh yes I agree. Just saying that platform matters.
In the company I work for the android teams are continually tearing their hair out because of the fragmentation. Not screen sizes but API they can't use because the clients want 80% of the market, devices that crash because of some device/OS incompatibility, features not guaranteed on certain devices and on and on.
But still the "the iPhone is a Ferrari " is inaccurate. It's not that expensive relative to the competition and it's a platform. So market does matter. In fact I think iOS will grow by 2019. IDC are always wrong.
Fitst, their projection of Apple shipping 269 million iPhones in 2019 is a bit conservative. After selling 193 million in 2014, Apple has already sold 186 million in the first three fiscal quarters of 2015, with another 45-50 million to be sold this quarter. So that's already 230-235 million in 2015. As India and other large markets grow, cheap android phones will lead the way, and this (as stated above by Ken_Sanders) is the reason why Android will retain its high market share numbers, with Apple following on its heels absorbing high value customers and increasing unit sales each year.
But as others have stated, at least IDC has recognized that Apple doesn't care about market share, as well they shouldn't. From my own previous writings on the topic...
That's right too. Emerging markets are in fact as brand sensitive as they are price sensitive, if not more so.
If a phone is, relative to salary, an expensive item then you are going to spend on quality brands, for peace of mind. Low quality cheap electronic goods are fools gold in emerging markets, as you are not guaranteed any resale value, any customer care or even that it will work in a week. Status matters too but not as much as the quality guarantee inherent in brands. When you enter the middle class you buy the best brands. In smartphones that's Apple. Samsung are losing their lustre.
CNN on IDC 2011:
"They (IDC) predict that Microsoft's all-but-dead-on-arrival Windows Phone 7 platform will outsell BlackBerry and, yes, the iPhone by 2015.
Four years from now, Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500) will have gained 21% of the smartphone market, IDC forecasts, up from just 5.5% at the end of this year. That's good enough for second place, trailing Google's Android OS. Windows Phone 7 is currently mired in fifth place."
Windows Phone totally destroyed iPhone. I saw Microsoft hold a funeral for iPhone. It's officially dead. /s
Yes and at the same time I know many MS employees use the iPhone by their choice.
Of course they dare not be caught with an iPhone at work !
Then, why MCD, with their one trick pony Big Mac has a P/E of 21.4? It should be valued like AAPL: 12.1... 45% lower. Oh, wait... MCD has a net cash of -15% of its market cap, while AAPL 25%... something is wrong here, IDC...
With IDC's usually dumb evaluations and predictions I wonder what IDC stands for ?
So I'll start with my suggestion, please join in people.
"Ignorant Data Collector"
Part of the anti-iOS campaign has been to insinuate that iOS is (or will soon be) a niche against "standard" Android. But Android is so fractured, it's ironically the other way around for app authors and third party accessory makers,
Market share is not an issue as long as it is enough to sustain the ecosystem. That was the problem back in the lean Mac years. Mac just didn't have enough market share to support professional software development. If not for Adobe and in some part, Macromedia, and also the very profitable printing and design industries, it probably would have gone under. Right now with 20% market share for iOS, and a user base that has the willingness to upgrade often, buy apps, media and accessories, there shouldn't be any concerns, but lets hope it does not fall below that level. I think that 10% is sort of a threshold that we definitely do not want to test. Somewhat surprisingly, Mac at 10% market share these days seems to be relatively robust.
I predict McDonald will loose marketshare by 2019 against all other fast-food brands in the world: all of the chinese, burritos, chicken, tacos, thai, street food carts, etc, combined, will sure open more points of sale than McDonald.
That analogy gets a little weak. @EricTheHalfBee got it right. If you compare McDonalds to the combination of every other burger restaurant in the US, McDonalds might have a similar market share as Apple does in mobile devices. You can't start throwing in Chinese food or TV sets.
With IDC's usually dumb evaluations and predictions I wonder what IDC stands for ?
So I'll start with my suggestion, please join in people.
"Ignorant Data Collector"
iOS Doesn't Count