IDC projects Apple unlikely to make market share gains against Android in coming years

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  • Reply 61 of 102

    The only remaining question is "Why does AppleInsider still bother to run these bogus IDC studies as news?"

  • Reply 62 of 102
    solipsismysolipsismy Posts: 5,099member
    mdwychoff wrote: »
    The only remaining question is "Why does AppleInsider still bother to run these bogus IDC studies as news?"

    64 replies (and counting) not to mention all the people that read the article and forum. IOW, ad revenue.
  • Reply 63 of 102
    tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 43,388member
    Originally Posted by SolipsismY View Post

    64 replies (and counting) not to mention all the people that read the article and forum. IOW, ad revenue.



    Here’s a question: What happens to all the sites that rely on Google-based ads once iOS 9 is released, adblockers for iOS are released, and Google’s ad revenue implodes?

  • Reply 64 of 102
    solipsismysolipsismy Posts: 5,099member
    Here’s a question: What happens to all the sites that rely on Google-based ads once iOS 9 is released, adblockers for iOS are released, and Google’s ad revenue implodes?

    Do you think Google's ad revenue will implode from this feature coming to iOS 9? I think we both agree that despite Android's "activation" numbers smartphones and tablets used as actual smartphones and tablets and not, at best, some feature phone or cheap media player does make the iPhone and iPad a very large part of the mobile market serviced by internet-based ads. However, haven't these ad blockers been around on Mac OS X, Windows and Android for many years without Google's ad revenue collapsing? My guess is that most people simply don't use them. Perhaps iOS 9 will make it easy enough that even the most casual or techtarded user will install them, but I'd say that isn't likely based on Google's current profitability with ad revenue.
  • Reply 65 of 102
    tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 43,388member
    Originally Posted by SolipsismY View Post

    However, haven't these ad blockers been around on Mac OS X, Windows and Android for many years without Google's ad revenue collapsing? 



    Sure, but I thought I remembered something being said about the mobile arena being Google’s primary source of revenue at this point. I don’t know what percentage ‘primary’ implies, but let’s say it’s 50 on its own. With the additional information that ~90% of all mobile devices that actually use the Internet are iOS devices, any hit to the 90% of 50% of their revenue would be significant. Assuming roughly the same adblock adoption on iOS (9) as we see on the desktop would let us get a better picture.

     

    My guess is that most people simply don't use them.


     

    And this is where I fall out of my scope, as I’ve lived with one for so long that I can’t remember life before them and can’t imagine that there are actual people out there who don’t use them. :p 

  • Reply 66 of 102
    solipsismysolipsismy Posts: 5,099member
    Sure, but I thought I remembered something being said about the mobile arena being Google’s primary source of revenue at this point. I don’t know what percentage ‘primary’ implies, but let’s say it’s 50 on its own. With the additional information that ~90% of all mobile devices that actually use the Internet are iOS devices, any hit to the 90% of 50% of their revenue would be significant. Assuming roughly the same adblock adoption on iOS (9) as we see on the desktop would let us get a better picture.

    If that's the situation then iOS 9 could be very dangerous for Google's bottom line.
    And this is where I fall out of my scope, as I’ve lived with one for so long that I can’t remember life before them and can’t imagine that there are actual people out there who don’t use them. :p

    I also can't remember not using them with my Mac (same for apps like 1Password) but I do know that most people simply don't and an amazingly large part of that number don't even know they exist.
  • Reply 67 of 102
    brakkenbrakken Posts: 687member
    IDC - the epitome of accuracy and insight.

    The key question is: Will any company make enough profit to continue operating?

    Um... Apple. Yep. MS will funne funds from Windows/Office and Goog will continue trying to bolster ads. SS likewise from anywhere it can. Hahaha!
  • Reply 68 of 102
    Originally Posted by Brakken View Post

    IDC - the epitome of accuracy and insight.

     

    IDC: I Don’t Care.

  • Reply 69 of 102
    solipsismy wrote: »
    If that's the situation then iOS 9 could be very dangerous for Google's bottom line.
    I also can't remember not using them with my Mac (same for apps like 1Password) but I do know that most people simply don't and an amazingly large part of that number don't even know they exist.

    I also predict that Ad blockers on iOS9 are going to be front and center and in the Top 10 on the App Store for a long time.

    http://thenextweb.com/apple/2015/08/24/ios-9-content-blocking-will-transform-the-mobile-web-ive-tried-it/

    http://finertech.com/blog/crystal-ios-9-content-blocker-can-allow-all-content-on-a-per-site-basis

    It will be interesting to see the reaction in the media to this, because obviously business wise, they're going to absolutely hate ad blocking and missing out on the valuable Apple-user demographic. Also, will Google suffer enough that they try to call out Apple as playing unfair, while they've had ad-blockers in their store for years.

    Note: the new ad-blocking is not the same as "automatic proxy" blocking like that of Weblock and a number of other blockers on iOS. For example: certain services and apps need to be able to identify your network and device in able to work properly. Which causes many people to try, but then disable the blocking app in question because it's too much if a hassle to allow sites and apps on a per service basis.

    Last but not least: DOJ investigation into unfair competition practices if the prediction comes true?
  • Reply 70 of 102

    Aside from a general ad-blocker, I’d love a blocker for that pop-down nonsense on an ever-growing number of websites that says HEY LOOK WE HAVE AN APP FOR THIS WEBSITE WHY NOT GO TO OUR HORRIBLE APP RATHER THAN USE A REGULAR WORKING WEBSITE ON A DEVICE DESIGNED EXPLICITLY TO BE ACCESSING REGULAR, NON-MOBILE WEBSITES and takes up 1/5th of your available screen space (on a phone).

  • Reply 71 of 102
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by AppeX View Post



    Gaining market share against Android is very easy:



    - USB port on iOS devices.

    - microSD and SDXC ports in iOS devices.

    - No sandboxing iOS.

    - No jailing iOS.

    - Mac tablet.

    - Reducing price to half. Not only of full devices, but also of RAM and SSD inside, which Apple charges twice or more than the original manufacturer.



    You nailed it!! Those are the same stupid things that trolls raise! You'd better put the /s in soon, otherwise people will think you are serious.

     

    Oh wait, you ARE serious?

  • Reply 72 of 102
    croprcropr Posts: 1,122member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Ken_sanders_aia View Post



    I predict that Apple will continue to increase their market share against Android in emerging markets as Apple continues to grow their distribution and sales channels.

    So your crystal ball is better than the one of IDC.  Personally, I don't believe in crystal balls at all.

  • Reply 73 of 102
    asdasdasdasd Posts: 5,686member
    You're getting too caught up in the percentage number... without looking at it in context.

    Which of the following matters more to a developer or the platform as a whole... the iPhone at 10% market share... or the iPhone selling 300 million units every year? And remember... these are high-end phones owned by people who spend billions of dollars on apps and games.

    That's more than enough new iPhones to keep developers interested... plus the 600 million existing iPhones that are already in people's hands.

    There are more iPhones out in the world today than there were a year ago... two years ago... three years ago... etc.

    And that's what developers are looking at. And case makers, accessory makers, and everyone else who supports the iPhone platform.

    It's not actually what developers look at, since we don't have bedroom developers of any significance anymore. Managers in companies have to decide who or what to develop for and what mobile experts to hire. If an OS is 10% (and all things being equal) there will be fewer applications being produced first, or even at all for the lesser platform. iOS is still the favoured OS at 20% partially because all things are not equal ( iOS owners buy more stuff), partially because of Android fragmentation, partially because iOS is so dominant in the U.S. that it's a no brainer to build for iOS first for US companies -- a large number. And partially because of its enterprise domination.

    Compare that with the Mac. There really aren't that many Mac developer jobs out there, but plenty of windows jobs. Games are often produced mich later if at all. Applications are ported by porting houses rather than being the primary focus of the original company. That may change if Mac OS gets to 20% plus.
  • Reply 74 of 102
    asdasdasdasd Posts: 5,686member
    Aside from a general ad-blocker, I’d love a blocker for that pop-down nonsense on an ever-growing number of websites that says HEY LOOK WE HAVE AN APP FOR THIS WEBSITE WHY NOT GO TO OUR HORRIBLE APP RATHER THAN USE A REGULAR WORKING WEBSITE ON A DEVICE DESIGNED EXPLICITLY TO BE ACCESSING REGULAR, NON-MOBILE WEBSITES and takes up 1/5th of your available screen space (on a phone).

    I have no idea why text based web sites need that app. General "we need an app" groupthink? Or are mobile apps stickier?
  • Reply 75 of 102
    habihabi Posts: 317member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppeX View Post



    Gaining market share against Android is very easy:



    - USB port on iOS devices.

    - microSD and SDXC ports in iOS devices.

    - No sandboxing iOS.

    - No jailing iOS.

    - Mac tablet.

    - Reducing price to half. Not only of full devices, but also of RAM and SSD inside, which Apple charges twice or more than the original manufacturer.



    What the hell, most of your point would actually make me jump ship?! SD-cards on the phone? Even Xiaomi said it wont make a cardslot in their phones because it represents the worst scenario for service as most cards people buy are just shit and will make the phone shit too.

    http://www.engadget.com/2015/05/06/hugo-barra-xiaomi-microsd-battery-mi-4i/

     

    You can even install your own apps these days from other places than the appstore not to say how much sandboxing is good for security.

  • Reply 76 of 102
    thepixeldocthepixeldoc Posts: 2,257member
    asdasd wrote: »
    It's not actually what developers look at, since we don't have bedroom developers of any significance anymore. Managers in companies have to decide who or what to develop for and what mobile experts to hire. If an OS is 10% (and all things being equal) there will be fewer applications being produced first, or even at all for the lesser platform. iOS is still the favoured OS at 20% partially because all things are not equal ( iOS owners buy more stuff), partially because of Android fragmentation, partially because iOS is so dominant in the U.S. that it's a no brainer to build for iOS first for US companies -- a large number. And partially because of its enterprise domination.

    Compare that with the Mac. There really aren't that many Mac developer jobs out there, but plenty of windows jobs. Games are often produced mich later if at all. Applications are ported by porting houses rather than being the primary focus of the original company. That may change if Mac OS gets to 20% plus.

    Bolded = BS!

    Mac OS is used to create probably no less than 90%*** of all creative assets in media, music, publishing and the web.

    Windows is enterprise and gaming. Large markets, but I'm not seeing any innovation or software going on there that I wish Apple had developers for. Also, being smaller in size and more targeted to creatives, the Apple developers that we have are all dedicated and truly know their market, platform of choice and are in it for the passion and the long-haul. Something that I've never experienced with Windows devs.... in the general creative software category at least (other than a few music apps like Fruit Loops Studio).

    *** That's a conservative guess, because yeah... even Google has more Mac OS devices than Windows. Now name me the 2 most influential tech movers today?

    NOTE: How you feel about kids having their computer usage sent to their parents.... automatically as an opt-out rather than opt-in? Or possibly turned on by the techie boyfriend on his GF's computer.... just for schnittzel and giggles mind you?
  • Reply 77 of 102
    foggyhillfoggyhill Posts: 4,767member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by asdasd View Post





    It's not actually what developers look at, since we don't have bedroom developers of any significance anymore. Managers in companies have to decide who or what to develop for and what mobile experts to hire. If an OS is 10% (and all things being equal) there will be fewer applications being produced first, or even at all for the lesser platform. iOS is still the favoured OS at 20% partially because all things are not equal ( iOS owners buy more stuff), partially because of Android fragmentation, partially because iOS is so dominant in the U.S. that it's a no brainer to build for iOS first for US companies -- a large number. And partially because of its enterprise domination.



    Compare that with the Mac. There really aren't that many Mac developer jobs out there, but plenty of windows jobs. Games are often produced mich later if at all. Applications are ported by porting houses rather than being the primary focus of the original company. That may change if Mac OS gets to 20% plus.

     

    You forgot ONE THING, profits vs cost. If you got 80% of devices with a massive mount of fragmentation (meaning, devellopping for this 80% is both more costly, and more fraught with issues), but only 40% of profits, while the other company has 20% of the market, only a few variants and 60% of profits in great part because of the higher demo... Well, that changes things quite a bit doesn't it?

     

    If Apple is Apple to keep a large part of the high end of the market and its demos, Android will still be the second choice for developpers.  Why? Because it's less risk to develop for IOS first, especially for the costliest apps to devellop.

     

    Profit margins are pretty low on mobile apps, anything that can reduce risk is critical.

  • Reply 78 of 102
    asdasdasdasd Posts: 5,686member
    Bolded = BS!

    Mac OS is used to create probably no less than 90%*** of all creative assets in media, music, publishing and the web.

    Windows is enterprise and gaming. Large markets, but I'm not seeing any innovation or software going on there that I wish Apple had developers for. Also, being smaller in size and more targeted to creatives, the Apple developers that we have are all dedicated and truly know their market, platform of choice and are in it for the passion and the long-haul. Something that I've never experienced with Windows devs.... in the general creative software category at least (other than a few music apps like Fruit Loops Studio).

    *** That's a conservative guess, because yeah... even Google has more Mac OS devices than Windows. Now name me the 2 most influential tech movers today?

    NOTE: How you feel about kids having their computer usage sent to their parents.... automatically as an opt-out rather than opt-in? Or possibly turned on by the techie boyfriend on his GF's computer.... just for schnittzel and giggles mind you?

    That creative thing isn't true. Windows is used there too And it's one or two companies who need developers for that. Adobe. A few others.

    I have plied my trade in Mac and windows development so I know the score. I now do iOS and Mac as a tech manager and we can't recruit Mac devs because there aren't any. There aren't any because of a chicken and egg situation where people don't do it because no jobs. It's next to impossible to convince internal iOS devs to do Mac too.
  • Reply 79 of 102
    asdasdasdasd Posts: 5,686member
    foggyhill wrote: »
    You forgot ONE THING, profits vs cost. If you got 80% of devices with a massive mount of fragmentation (meaning, devellopping for this 80% is both more costly, and more fraught with issues), but only 40% of profits, while the other company has 20% of the market, only a few variants and 60% of profits in great part because of the higher demo... Well, that changes things quite a bit doesn't it?

    If Apple is Apple to keep a large part of the high end of the market and its demos, Android will still be the second choice for developpers.  Why? Because it's less risk to develop for IOS first, especially for the costliest apps to devellop.

    Profit margins are pretty low on mobile apps, anything that can reduce risk is critical.

    The fragmentation matters to developers ( and I mentioned that), so does the fact that iOS is high end ( and I mentioned that), but Apples profits don't matter to developers except that it's not likely to disappear.
  • Reply 80 of 102
    tundraboytundraboy Posts: 1,884member

    In other news, auto industry analysts have also concluded that BMW is going to make zero headway in its bid to take market share away from Kia and Suzuki.

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