Drop in Swiss watch exports linked partly to impact of Apple Watch

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Comments

  • Reply 21 of 40
    MarvinMarvin Posts: 15,439moderator
    1.2% per month is pretty substantial.

    It said 1.2% decline in the first 8 months, 1.6% over 12 months but this number is offset by other products than watches, it's a 2.4% drop over 12 months for the wristwatches. The numbers may have dropped each month YoY but not that much every month:

    http://www.fhs.ch/file/59/comm_150808_a.pdf
    http://www.fhs.ch/eng/statistics.html

    The value drop is only $35m in that month. Apple sold over $1b in 2 months so it's possible that they were responsible for a few lost sales. The unit volume dropped more than the value with a 9.6% drop so the impact was to cheaper Swiss watches, around 200k units. $35m for 200k units would be $175 watches. The most impact was to watches just below and above $200 but above $500 weren't affected much.

    The country stats suggest that China was the biggest drop with every other country showing growth exceeding 10%. So this would point more towards the economy in China being responsible. Hong Kong alone buys more Swiss watches in terms of value than the entire US even after a huge 18% drop.
  • Reply 22 of 40
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by cnocbui View Post

     

     

    Seiko sales have been dropping?  Would you care to provide a link for that?  Oh, and the same for Casio.  Looking at their financial results they reported a 10% rise in sales and a 44.5% increase in profit and in terms of their watch business, report: "substantial growth in overall sales".

     

    http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2015/08/12/business/seiko-ceo-eyes-premium-watch-market-bid-bolster-brand/

    http://world.casio.com/file/ir/pdf/results/201507/results16_1st.pdf




    Your article exactly makes my point. The article says that Seiko is going upmarket to survive. The traditional Seikos are gone.

    Quote:


     Looking at the domestic market, watch sales have been increasing over the past several years, but unit sales have been trending downward.


     

    Quote:

    including GPS hybrid radio-controlled solar-powered watches,

     

    They have to sell a $1000 electronic watch, or else their revenue is toast. In this aspect, they're trying to compete with Omega.

     

    The daily driver market disappeared, but heirlooms are doing fine.

     

    Look at Spheric's link: 








    Mechanical Watch market share 77 %

     

    Since when did people wear mechanical watches to keep time?

  • Reply 23 of 40
    sphericspheric Posts: 2,666member
    konqerror wrote: »
    Look at Spheric's link: 
    <table border="1" cellpadding="4" style="color:rgb(0,0,0);width:100%;"><tbody style="border:0px;margin:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">[TR]
    [TD]Mechanical Watch market share[/TD]
    [TD]77 %[/TD]
    [/TR]
    </tbody>
    </table>

    Since when did people wear mechanical watches to keep time?

    I agree with the basic premise of your post, which is true of most comooditized markets including computers and smartphones: the money is in the higher-margin upper end.

    However, regarding mechanical watches: people have been wearing them to tell time for a century now. My Omega never needed resetting; it kept perfect time until the day the crown failed. I have zero need for time accuracy within four microseconds or whatever. Nobody does, and the selling point is one for "nice to know, but useless".

    The Apple Watch is the first digital watch I have worn since the late 80s, when I was on a Casio. And I keep it on one of the analog watch faces most of the time, because it's more intuitive to read at a glance than to parse four random numbers, to me.

    Plus, it just looks nicer.
  • Reply 24 of 40
    cnocbuicnocbui Posts: 3,613member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by konqerror View Post

     



    Your article exactly makes my point. The article says that Seiko is going upmarket to survive. The traditional Seikos are gone.

     

     

    They have to sell a $1000 electronic watch, or else their revenue is toast. In this aspect, they're trying to compete with Omega.

     

    The daily driver market disappeared, but heirlooms are doing fine.

     

    Look at Spheric's link: 








    Mechanical Watch market share 77 %

     

    Since when did people wear mechanical watches to keep time?


     

    The article does not say Seiko is going upmarket to survive.  You are making that up just as you did with your previous post where you just made up shit about declining sales for Seiko, Casio and Citizen.  The article does say "Net profit almost quadrupled to ¥3.73 billion, also a record high for April-June".  How does a person interpret that as a struggle for survival?

     

    Nothing in those links supports any of your assertions and you have still not provided anything to support your earlier claim of declining sales for the companies you mentioned.

     

    I wore mechanical watches to keep time for many years, just as people have done for many decades before.  What you don't seem to comprehend is that a lot of people don't need or want a watch to do any more than tell the time, and as spheric said, almost no one needs absolute precision either.

  • Reply 25 of 40
    When this whole Apple watch thing came to light two years ago and I could not figure out why Apple would get into the watch business I looked at this market. On a per unit sales basis it has been declining notice how the did not say anything about units but $ so they are saying Swiss made less money, not necessarily sold less product. Also the increases in $ made over past 10 yrs has more to do with costs I gold and such going up. I believe this has more to do with currency issue and value of gold and metals going down. The Swiss can no longer command a higher price as they have done over the last 10 yrs.

    As we are seeing the Apple watch is not a Swiss watch replacement it it's going after the whole health market which is growing. I do not believe people are buying the Apple watch over a Swiss watch two different purchases decisions.
  • Reply 26 of 40
    cnocbui wrote: »
    This is quite astonishing.  I would never have believed it.  The ?Watch has even managed to decimate Prada's sales.

    I really want to hear how the Apple Watch affected the sales of handbags, clothing, and the other luxury items made by Prada.
  • Reply 27 of 40
    I would say the Apple Watch has about 1 to 3% max impact on this (in the persentage of the decline amount, which probaly would be like 0.005% effective impact or less). The main reason is the strong franc like the rest of the exporting swiss industry is suffering from it (that fact is already shown that watches over 3000.-- have had a rise, due to people with money do not care less if the watch price rises or not). Just as a reminder the swiss national Bank stopped enforcing the 1.20 sFr limit to the Euro. And the US$ at time is below or fairly over 1.-- sFr.

    I'm an Apple fan but the AppleWatch does not have that amount of impact as some like to have on the real watch sales.

    And most people that buy an Apple Watch are the ones that previously for some time didn't wear or bought a watch.
  • Reply 28 of 40
    sphericspheric Posts: 2,666member
    maestro64 wrote: »
    When this whole Apple watch thing came to light two years ago and I could not figure out why Apple would get into the watch business I looked at this market. On a per unit sales basis it has been declining notice how the did not say anything about units but $ so they are saying Swiss made less money, not necessarily sold less product. Also the increases in $ made over past 10 yrs has more to do with costs I gold and such going up. I believe this has more to do with currency issue and value of gold and metals going down. The Swiss can no longer command a higher price as they have done over the last 10 yrs.

    As we are seeing the Apple watch is not a Swiss watch replacement it it's going after the whole health market which is growing. I do not believe people are buying the Apple watch over a Swiss watch two different purchases decisions.

    Again: I just replaced my Omega with an Apple Watch.

    It is happening.

    Yes, people are buying AW for health tracking.

    They are also buying them as daily-driver timepieces.

    They are also replacing previous Swiss daily-driver timepieces.

    They are also buying them as fashion accessories.

    They are also buying them because they are technology geeks (though I suspect less of the latter).

    All of these things are happening.
  • Reply 29 of 40
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by DanielSW View Post



    All I know is that I get a lot of admiring/envious comments about my Apple Watch--and they recognize it as an Apple Watch! That says far more than any silly survey.



    Ummmm... what?  You think one person's anecdotal tale of admiring/envious comments is more meaningful than HARD DATA when it comes to the Apple Watch's impact on the watch industry??  You can't possibly be serious, but if you are, you have an insanely inflated view of your own importance!  WOW!   

  • Reply 30 of 40
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by JBDragon View Post

     

    Watch sales have been dropping for years.  I stopped wearing one when I got my first dumb phone years ago. Why wear a watch when I have the time on my phone?  I really don't think the Apple Watch is having much of a effect on overall watch sales.  If anything it's helped sell watches to those then never wear a watch, which in turn increases over all watch sales and maybe slowing down the decline a bit.




    You couldn't be more wrong.  Watch sales have not been dropping at all.  In fact, Swiss watch sales (the topic we're discussing) went from 9.2 billion francs in 2000 to 21 billion in 2014 - an all time high!  Sales have more than tripled in the past 14 years, despite smart phones.  Then the minute the Apple Watch comes out, things start going the other way.  Hmmm... coincidence?  I think not.  

     

    And you may not "think" the Apple Watch is impacting watch sales, but the facts say otherwise.  The traditional watch industry declined 14% following the launch of the Apple Watch, and in this very article it shows that Swiss watches in the same price category as the Apple Watch declined 24%!  That's a HUGE impact.  

  • Reply 31 of 40
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by sflagel View Post

     
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by foggyhill View Post

     

    It's only the start of the onslaught, year repeat of 2007-2008... Those companies should be VERY AFRAID.


    No one is going to buy an Apple Watch instead of a normal watch. Watches are not a this-or-that product; they are not a zero-sum market.

     

    Either you wear watches, in which case you will buy an Apple in addition to other watches.

     

    Or you don't like watches, in which case you may buy an Apple Watch for the functionality but you would not have bought a normal watch anyway.


     

    What are you basing this on?  Nothing I assume.  Of course people will buy an Apple Watch instead of a "normal" watch, and they are!  Study after study shows that very clearly.  I can't understand why you have such a hard time believing it.  People are only have so much wrist real estate, so if they used to wear a "normal" watch and now want to wear an Apple Watch, they will buy an Apple Watch instead of a "normal" watch.  They still have their old "normal" watches, but they aren't buying new ones - at least not for a while.  

  • Reply 32 of 40
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Maestro64 View Post



    When this whole Apple watch thing came to light two years ago and I could not figure out why Apple would get into the watch business I looked at this market. On a per unit sales basis it has been declining notice how the did not say anything about units but $ so they are saying Swiss made less money, not necessarily sold less product. Also the increases in $ made over past 10 yrs has more to do with costs I gold and such going up. I believe this has more to do with currency issue and value of gold and metals going down. The Swiss can no longer command a higher price as they have done over the last 10 yrs.



    As we are seeing the Apple watch is not a Swiss watch replacement it it's going after the whole health market which is growing. I do not believe people are buying the Apple watch over a Swiss watch two different purchases decisions.

    Sorry, but you're wrong.  Whether you look at units or dollars, Swiss watch sales have been increasing for the last 10 years.  In 2005, the Swiss watch industry sold 24,364,000 units.  In 2014, they sold 28,586,000 units.  That is a healthy 17% increase.  2015 is the first year of decline, in both units and dollars, in the last 10 years.  

     

    I don't know why so many people refuse to believe it, but a LOT of people are opting for Apple Watches over traditional watches.  I'm one of them.  

  • Reply 33 of 40
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by swissdude View Post



    I would say the Apple Watch has about 1 to 3% max impact on this (in the persentage of the decline amount, which probaly would be like 0.005% effective impact or less). The main reason is the strong franc like the rest of the exporting swiss industry is suffering from it (that fact is already shown that watches over 3000.-- have had a rise, due to people with money do not care less if the watch price rises or not). Just as a reminder the swiss national Bank stopped enforcing the 1.20 sFr limit to the Euro. And the US$ at time is below or fairly over 1.-- sFr.



    I'm an Apple fan but the AppleWatch does not have that amount of impact as some like to have on the real watch sales.



    And most people that buy an Apple Watch are the ones that previously for some time didn't wear or bought a watch.

    The over 3000 franc watch sales weren't impacted because Apple is barely selling watches in that category.  Almost no one is buying the Edition watches.  The VAST majority of Apple Watches sold (over 80%) fall into the 200 - 500 franc category (known as mid-level, and Swiss watch sales fell a staggering 24% in that category since the Apple Watch came out.  And that has nothing to do with the valuation of the franc, because that devaluation happened on January 15, MONTHS before the Apple Watch launched in late April, and since the Apple Watch came out, the franc has been steadily declining, so this currency theory holds no water.  

  • Reply 34 of 40
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by ifail View Post



    While there are no numbers to back up claims of the Apple Watches performance I don't think it's an earth shattering product. Since its release I've seen all of 2 watches, which is anecdotal.



    There is no drive behind buying one, atleast not right now. It's a luxury product that has no real benefit to the masses unlike the iPhone.



    Let's be real right now, the Apple Watch is catering to the tech crowd no different than the android watches before it. Women are hung up on fashion brands like Michael Kors, young adults and exercise buffs are big into the g-shocks, while most men are into traditional style watches.



    I feel fashion will almost always trump smart watches for a considerable amount of time.

    Wow, you've only seen TWO?  Roughly half of my circle of friends own Apple Watches.  I see at least a dozen a day as I walk around here in San Francisco, and I spent 3 weeks in Asia this summer and I saw them EVERYWHERE!  Apple is selling millions and millions of them, and there definitely is a "drive behind buying one."  

  • Reply 35 of 40
    cnocbuicnocbui Posts: 3,613member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by starxd View Post

     



    Ummmm... what?  You think one person's anecdotal tale of admiring/envious comments is more meaningful than HARD DATA when it comes to the Apple Watch's impact on the watch industry??  You can't possibly be serious, but if you are, you have an insanely inflated view of your own importance!  WOW!   


     

    Six posts in a row...

  • Reply 36 of 40
    sphericspheric Posts: 2,666member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by starxd View Post

     

    The over 3000 franc watch sales weren't impacted because Apple is barely selling watches in that category.  Almost no one is buying the Edition watches.  The VAST majority of Apple Watches sold (over 80%) fall into the 200 - 500 franc category


     

    We have absolutely no idea whether that is true. 

     

    I actually doubt it — I think the percentage of stainless steel models is considerably higher than you do. But that's just a hunch.

  • Reply 37 of 40
    Apparently so do you.
  • Reply 38 of 40
    sphericspheric Posts: 2,666member
    Apparently so do you.

    This no sense. I do what?
  • Reply 39 of 40
    maestro64maestro64 Posts: 5,043member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by spheric View Post





    Again: I just replaced my Omega with an Apple Watch.



    It is happening.



    Yes, people are buying AW for health tracking.



    They are also buying them as daily-driver timepieces.



    They are also replacing previous Swiss daily-driver timepieces.



    They are also buying them as fashion accessories.



    They are also buying them because they are technology geeks (though I suspect less of the latter).



    All of these things are happening.

    What data do you have to back this up, BTW I own a AW, and did so since I wanted a fitness band and needed a new everyday watch and did not want to ware a fitness band and a watch (I am not big on looking at my phone to see the time). I know a lot of people who buy watches for the fashion item, and they would not wear the AW solely for fashion they still have the nice swiss made watches. I also own a couple of different watches and I still wear them especially when going on and do not want to be reminded of everything going on around me. Today I still see lots of people with fitbits and still buying them, and most wear them to the gym and such but also put on a regular watch when not doing fitness activites.

     

    I still believe the swiss is seeing a decline in $ of revenue due the currency issue as well as the decline in metal commodities. I would like to see the units sold as complared to previous years. As I said I look into watch sales since 2000 as a whole the entire industry was been selling less and less watches YoY, becuase people as a whole are not buying watches. However the $ they were making was going up, and I am not talking profits, just total revenue. Most all of this has been due to cost of gold and other metals. Gold price almost double in that time period so a $1000 watch cost $2000 so if you sold 100 each year every year your revenues would have looked like they double but profits stayed the same. Without out the data you would assume the watch business was growing when in fact it was flat or declining.

  • Reply 40 of 40
    sphericspheric Posts: 2,666member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Maestro64 View Post

     

    What data do you have to back this up, BTW I own a AW, and did so since I wanted a fitness band and needed a new everyday watch and did not want to ware a fitness band and a watch (I am not big on looking at my phone to see the time). I know a lot of people who buy watches for the fashion item, and they would not wear the AW solely for fashion they still have the nice swiss made watches. I also own a couple of different watches and I still wear them especially when going on and do not want to be reminded of everything going on around me. 


     

    My claim was very specifically not about absolute numbers, but merely that these things are happening. 

     

    You have bought it as a health device. 

     

    You have bought it as a daily wearer (so have I). 

     

    I have bought it to replace a Swiss timepiece (an Omega that broke down). 

     

    I also happen to think it's rather pretty (which is one reason why I opted for the stainless link band version despite it being more than I was initially prepared to spend), so I guess that qualifies as a "fashion accessory" purchase. 

     

    I'm a bit of a tech geek, but I'm no longer keen on fiddling and programming stuff (unless I get paid well for it), so I probably don't qualify as "tech geek" purchaser, but there are plenty of accounts online of such purchases. 

     

    So: These things are happening. Until we have numbers, nobody knows how they are spread. 

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