you may be right, in that its nothing to do with apple Watch, however the trend is not 'coninuiung' its 2 to 3x lower than expected (from the trend)
I may be in a minority, bit i have several swiss watches in the $1k to $5k ballpark, and the reason i am not interested in adding to those, is simply the Apple Watch is too convenient to leave at home in favor of a nice piece of jewelry. I would miss its functionality, even when out for a nice evening.
There's no doubt the ?Watch is taking a bite out of the $200-$1,000 range, right now. It's the latest tech gadget from Apple, it's cool, it's beautiful, and I'm sure it conveys a certain status, both from being the first to have one, to merely being able to afford one. For the moment, it's a sensation that is diverting discretionary money some of these customers might have used to buy a new Swiss watch. The test is of course longevity. iPads are down since they exploded in popularity and threatened to put the laptop makers out of business. But they continue to sell steadily. Whether people are still as enamored of the ?Watch next year or not will determine the Swiss watchmakers future. For now, it's a much more exciting item to purchase than just another Swiss watch. And that easily explains the sudden dip in the Swiss watchmakers numbers. Apple's reported "other" earnings ending in the September quarter will cast some light on whether it's entirely due to the ?Watch, or in combination with other factors presently affecting the watch industry, and for some time.
Fine traditional watches will be relegated strictly to jewelry. Cheap traditional watches to novelty. Smart watches to appliances.
In time as smart watches gain functionality they will fully replace all traditional watches, but for the men and women who love to wear and be seen with expensive jewelry when they go out on the town.
My Rolex is basically jewelry. I never even adjusted the time with the last day light savings and according to it, today is the 18th
The two aren't contingent on each other; I don't think the drops in sales is because of the Apple Watch and I don't think the Apple watch is a failure. Conventional wristwatch sales have been dropping for years with the death of the industry predicted since before the current smartwatch fad and long before the Apple watch existed, and this is just continuing the trend.
I just don't think people go for conventional watches anymore and I don't think they really would if the smartwatch didn't exist.
They did buy them UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THIS YEAR.... Hmmm.
Please justify your assumption which are totally unsupported by any fact, just your gut.
So, try again.
In 2 year when their sales will be destroyed will you again come in to tell it was unrelated to Apple in spite of everything.
There's no doubt the ?Watch is taking a bite out of the $200-$1,000 range, right now. It's the latest tech gadget from Apple, it's cool, it's beautiful, and I'm sure it conveys a certain status, both from being the first to have one, to merely being able to afford one. For the moment, it's a sensation that is diverting discretionary money some of these customers might have used to buy a new Swiss watch. The test is of course longevity. iPads are down since they exploded in popularity and threatened to put the laptop makers out of business. But they continue to sell steadily. Whether people are still as enamored of the ?Watch next year or not will determine the Swiss watchmakers future. For now, it's a much more exciting item to purchase than just another Swiss watch. And that easily explains the sudden dip in the Swiss watchmakers numbers. Apple's reported "other" earnings ending in the September quarter will cast some light on whether it's entirely due to the ?Watch, or in combination with other factors presently affecting the watch industry, and for some time.
"For now"? "Test of longevity?"
Pray, tell us, what's your prognostication, O Great One?
I especially like the part about bank analyst remaining optimistic that Swatch will release a competitive smart watch, citing thier "technical know how". Thier CEO said it himself, they're not a consumer electronics company. I predict they'll either release a commodity Android variant, or a more traditional watch with basic capabilities, like thier Bellemy line (or whatever it's called). Whiche path they chose, I suspect it will be a failure. This is a vastly different product, and one they have no expertise in. Just look at that ridiculous beach volleyball watch Hayek is sporting.
Is that a watch? I thought it was a miniature multimeter.
I’m sure we’ll soon be hearing from the usual suspects how this drop in sales is not due to the Apple Watch and that the Apple Watch is a failure, just like Apple Music.
The two aren't contingent on each other; I don't think the drops in sales is because of the Apple Watch and I don't think the Apple watch is a failure. Conventional wristwatch sales have been dropping for years with the death of the industry predicted since before the current smartwatch fad and long before the Apple watch existed, and this is just continuing the trend.
You totally missed the point... Yes, even if the trend is for less sales than in the past; the numbers missed that softer projection by a factor of 2 to 3 times. This was not a tiny course correction, this was a zig or a zag to projected business.
There's no doubt the ?Watch is taking a bite out of the $200-$1,000 range, right now. It's the latest tech gadget from Apple, it's cool, it's beautiful, and I'm sure it conveys a certain status, both from being the first to have one, to merely being able to afford one. For the moment, it's a sensation that is diverting discretionary money some of these customers might have used to buy a new Swiss watch. The test is of course longevity. iPads are down since they exploded in popularity and threatened to put the laptop makers out of business. But they continue to sell steadily. Whether people are still as enamored of the ?Watch next year or not will determine the Swiss watchmakers future. For now, it's a much more exciting item to purchase than just another Swiss watch. And that easily explains the sudden dip in the Swiss watchmakers numbers. Apple's reported "other" earnings ending in the September quarter will cast some light on whether it's entirely due to the ?Watch, or in combination with other factors presently affecting the watch industry, and for some time.
Problem is, there is no way for the Swiss to turn the tables and become the "cool" one again. If you actually use the functionality of the ?Watch wearing another watch that "merely" tells the time is just annoying. There is some chance at ?Watch sales tailing off after the "cool" phase is over, but people won't be going back to "old school" watches. They will just be living with their existing ?Watch. When it dies, or there is a worth successor (probably from Apple), it will be replaced. But it will not be replaced by watches that are not "smart". The satisfaction level with the ?Watch has seen to that. It would be like asking a smartphone user to go bac kto a "flip phone". Not going to happen.
I’m sure we’ll soon be hearing from the usual suspects how this drop in sales is not due to the Apple Watch and that the Apple Watch is a failure, just like Apple Music.
I'm sure you're right. You no doubt have heard that the "END" is near, and we're all headed to that big recycle center in the sky before the end of December.
Really, who wants to spend their last days shopping for a smart watch when drunken debauchery has filled your calendar??
Problem is, there is no way for the Swiss to turn the tables and become the "cool" one again. If you actually use the functionality of the ?Watch wearing another watch that "merely" tells the time is just annoying. There is some chance at ?Watch sales tailing off after the "cool" phase is over, but people won't be going back to "old school" watches.
Apple may let things cool off after the end of the year spasm of gift giving but Apple will be back to beating the drum soon enough, making the ?watch even more "cool" and something no civilized human can life without.
Apple is a master at long-term planning and long-term marketing. For example, I'd willing to wager the current planning on the ?watch marketing and enhancements go out further then just a couple years, maybe as far out as five years.
They did buy them UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THIS YEAR.... Hmmm.
Please justify your assumption which are totally unsupported by any fact, just your gut.
So, try again.
In 2 year when their sales will be destroyed will you again come in to tell it was unrelated to Apple in spite of everything.
I don't doubt you will.
Surveys conducted as is summarised here, articles such as thisthis and this. It's not a feeling I made up on the spot because I fancied writing a post, there's various articles out there pointing at a loss in sales of wristwatches that are from an era before smartwatches existed. True a lot of the loss in sales is related to the economic downturn in 2008-9, but the general sentiment of a decline is there - it's even one of the top google predictions for searching.
There there, I tried again. I've read numerous articles related to this decline but also about wristwatches increasing in sales - directly contradicting myself in thinking they are declining in sales, but also your implication that Apple will destroy the industry in two years. There's multiple sides to the argument and it's for analysts or statisticians to bicker over. I really don't know what to make if the second part of your post - on what basis do you think that Apple (or all smartwatch manufacturers?) will crush the sales of regular watches in two years?
Edit: I do realise my argument for the decline of wristwatches might be slightly biased; I don't own a wrist timepiece but I do own 3 smartwatches.
Edit again: Another source here based on swiss exports - this one is the most interesting. A surge in sales 2009-10 and then slight declines 2010-14 yet a constant increase in value, indicating a growth of high-end watch sales and the low end (sub $1000?) abandonment - probably the crowd of which I could be included going to smartwatches?
The test is of course longevity. iPads are down since they exploded in popularity and threatened to put the laptop makers out of business. But they continue to sell steadily. Whether people are still as enamored of the ?Watch next year or not will determine the Swiss watchmakers future. For now, it's a much more exciting item to purchase than just another Swiss watch.
The same mental yoga can be used to express hope that someday, the Palm Treo and Blackberry will make a comeback against the currently much more exciting iPhone and the Android-based clones it inspired. Will people still be as enamored of the iPhone next year? Time will tell.
When you have a watch that does far more than tell time and looks like a stunning piece of technology/jewelry, it's no wonder Swiss watch sales are declining.
As I have pointed out before, sellers of other product categories to the Asian market have reported recent declines. I think declining global economic activity is the main cause, lead by China. Some economists have said that if their economic performance were measured and evaluated in line with the methods used in other countries, their growth rate would have been 4% rather than the 7% that was reported. As it has now fallen to 6.9% official, the true rate is likely 3 point something.
The troubling points with the article is, Elmar Mock is not an authority by any stretch regarding the economics of the watch industry and the Swiss watch decline is centered on Asia with China in particular. This is manufacturing more hype to Apple's lackluster stock price strategy, the apple watch.
If you own more than one Swiss Made watch then you get why these products are relevant. The apple watch does not satisfy the reason why a multiple Swiss watch owner owns a watch.
Comments
you may be right, in that its nothing to do with apple Watch, however the trend is not 'coninuiung' its 2 to 3x lower than expected (from the trend)
I may be in a minority, bit i have several swiss watches in the $1k to $5k ballpark, and the reason i am not interested in adding to those, is simply the Apple Watch is too convenient to leave at home in favor of a nice piece of jewelry. I would miss its functionality, even when out for a nice evening.
There's no doubt the ?Watch is taking a bite out of the $200-$1,000 range, right now. It's the latest tech gadget from Apple, it's cool, it's beautiful, and I'm sure it conveys a certain status, both from being the first to have one, to merely being able to afford one. For the moment, it's a sensation that is diverting discretionary money some of these customers might have used to buy a new Swiss watch. The test is of course longevity. iPads are down since they exploded in popularity and threatened to put the laptop makers out of business. But they continue to sell steadily. Whether people are still as enamored of the ?Watch next year or not will determine the Swiss watchmakers future. For now, it's a much more exciting item to purchase than just another Swiss watch. And that easily explains the sudden dip in the Swiss watchmakers numbers. Apple's reported "other" earnings ending in the September quarter will cast some light on whether it's entirely due to the ?Watch, or in combination with other factors presently affecting the watch industry, and for some time.
My Rolex is basically jewelry. I never even adjusted the time with the last day light savings and according to it, today is the 18th
The two aren't contingent on each other; I don't think the drops in sales is because of the Apple Watch and I don't think the Apple watch is a failure. Conventional wristwatch sales have been dropping for years with the death of the industry predicted since before the current smartwatch fad and long before the Apple watch existed, and this is just continuing the trend.
I just don't think people go for conventional watches anymore and I don't think they really would if the smartwatch didn't exist.
They did buy them UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THIS YEAR.... Hmmm.
Please justify your assumption which are totally unsupported by any fact, just your gut.
So, try again.
In 2 year when their sales will be destroyed will you again come in to tell it was unrelated to Apple in spite of everything.
I don't doubt you will.
"For now"? "Test of longevity?"
Pray, tell us, what's your prognostication, O Great One?
Is that a watch? I thought it was a miniature multimeter.
What in the world has Nick Hayek strapped on his wrist! It's no wonder that his company's sales are in the dumper!
All you Swiss watchmakers are alike. Well Apple is not going to tell you squat!
You totally missed the point... Yes, even if the trend is for less sales than in the past; the numbers missed that softer projection by a factor of 2 to 3 times. This was not a tiny course correction, this was a zig or a zag to projected business.
There's no doubt the ?Watch is taking a bite out of the $200-$1,000 range, right now. It's the latest tech gadget from Apple, it's cool, it's beautiful, and I'm sure it conveys a certain status, both from being the first to have one, to merely being able to afford one. For the moment, it's a sensation that is diverting discretionary money some of these customers might have used to buy a new Swiss watch. The test is of course longevity. iPads are down since they exploded in popularity and threatened to put the laptop makers out of business. But they continue to sell steadily. Whether people are still as enamored of the ?Watch next year or not will determine the Swiss watchmakers future. For now, it's a much more exciting item to purchase than just another Swiss watch. And that easily explains the sudden dip in the Swiss watchmakers numbers. Apple's reported "other" earnings ending in the September quarter will cast some light on whether it's entirely due to the ?Watch, or in combination with other factors presently affecting the watch industry, and for some time.
Problem is, there is no way for the Swiss to turn the tables and become the "cool" one again. If you actually use the functionality of the ?Watch wearing another watch that "merely" tells the time is just annoying. There is some chance at ?Watch sales tailing off after the "cool" phase is over, but people won't be going back to "old school" watches. They will just be living with their existing ?Watch. When it dies, or there is a worth successor (probably from Apple), it will be replaced. But it will not be replaced by watches that are not "smart". The satisfaction level with the ?Watch has seen to that. It would be like asking a smartphone user to go bac kto a "flip phone". Not going to happen.
I'm sure you're right. You no doubt have heard that the "END" is near, and we're all headed to that big recycle center in the sky before the end of December.
Really, who wants to spend their last days shopping for a smart watch when drunken debauchery has filled your calendar??
Apple may let things cool off after the end of the year spasm of gift giving but Apple will be back to beating the drum soon enough, making the ?watch even more "cool" and something no civilized human can life without.
Apple is a master at long-term planning and long-term marketing. For example, I'd willing to wager the current planning on the ?watch marketing and enhancements go out further then just a couple years, maybe as far out as five years.
They did buy them UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THIS YEAR.... Hmmm.
Please justify your assumption which are totally unsupported by any fact, just your gut.
So, try again.
In 2 year when their sales will be destroyed will you again come in to tell it was unrelated to Apple in spite of everything.
I don't doubt you will.
Surveys conducted as is summarised here, articles such as this this and this. It's not a feeling I made up on the spot because I fancied writing a post, there's various articles out there pointing at a loss in sales of wristwatches that are from an era before smartwatches existed. True a lot of the loss in sales is related to the economic downturn in 2008-9, but the general sentiment of a decline is there - it's even one of the top google predictions for searching.
There there, I tried again. I've read numerous articles related to this decline but also about wristwatches increasing in sales - directly contradicting myself in thinking they are declining in sales, but also your implication that Apple will destroy the industry in two years. There's multiple sides to the argument and it's for analysts or statisticians to bicker over. I really don't know what to make if the second part of your post - on what basis do you think that Apple (or all smartwatch manufacturers?) will crush the sales of regular watches in two years?
Edit: I do realise my argument for the decline of wristwatches might be slightly biased; I don't own a wrist timepiece but I do own 3 smartwatches.
Edit again: Another source here based on swiss exports - this one is the most interesting. A surge in sales 2009-10 and then slight declines 2010-14 yet a constant increase in value, indicating a growth of high-end watch sales and the low end (sub $1000?) abandonment - probably the crowd of which I could be included going to smartwatches?
What in the world has Nick Hayek strapped on his wrist! It's no wonder that his company's sales are in the dumper!
Try doing a little research before you spout crap:
http://www.swatchgroup.com/en/services/archive/2015/half_year_report_2015
During the first calendar quarter of 2015, the Swiss National Bank increased its holding of Apple stock by 60 percent to 8.90 million shares.
That's smart of them. I guess that's what's called hedging their bets.
[IMG ALT=""]http://forums.appleinsider.com/content/type/61/id/62073/width/500/height/1000[/IMG]
The test is of course longevity. iPads are down since they exploded in popularity and threatened to put the laptop makers out of business. But they continue to sell steadily. Whether people are still as enamored of the ?Watch next year or not will determine the Swiss watchmakers future. For now, it's a much more exciting item to purchase than just another Swiss watch.
The same mental yoga can be used to express hope that someday, the Palm Treo and Blackberry will make a comeback against the currently much more exciting iPhone and the Android-based clones it inspired. Will people still be as enamored of the iPhone next year? Time will tell.
As I have pointed out before, sellers of other product categories to the Asian market have reported recent declines. I think declining global economic activity is the main cause, lead by China. Some economists have said that if their economic performance were measured and evaluated in line with the methods used in other countries, their growth rate would have been 4% rather than the 7% that was reported. As it has now fallen to 6.9% official, the true rate is likely 3 point something.
If you own more than one Swiss Made watch then you get why these products are relevant. The apple watch does not satisfy the reason why a multiple Swiss watch owner owns a watch.