It amazes me how a speculative note can yield a 4% sell off but an earnings release with a rev and eps beat barely gets a 2% increase. Starting to believe in the conspiracy theory. 50 analysts tag Apple will 150 Target stk price and the stock does nothing. 1 analyst says iPhone slowing 130 tops and big investors freak out and sell It all. Wall Street makes sure mom and pop will not make a lot of money investing in the best ran company in the world. I bet if Apple said they were planning to go private Wall Street would instantly give it a market multiple to make it virtually impossible for them to do it!
So you either don’t believe that the economy will ever collapse again or you’ve already prepared what you need to get through it and your initial question is meaningless.
Seems the perfect gimmick. Put this out, and buy cheap. Or they are already shorting he stock. I would guess a release like this type of thing is at least half manipulation.
He points out that brokers at Credit Suisse can now tell Apple longs to sell because of the weak report, and also tell clients who don't own Apple stock to buy at the lower price. The result is more sales commissions, just in time to increase the brokers' end-of-year bonuses.
So you either don’t believe that the economy will ever collapse again or you’ve already prepared what you need to get through it and your initial question is meaningless.
'Ever'? Who said 'ever'? Ever is a long time. A VERY long time.
You said "entering a global depression". Like it's starting to happen NOW. You really should read more often what you write before you post. Failing that, at least read what you write after you post. I don't know what else to say.
Seems the perfect gimmick. Put this out, and buy cheap. Or they are already shorting he stock. I would guess a release like this type of thing is at least half manipulation.
He points out that brokers at Credit Suisse can now tell Apple longs to sell because of the weak report, and also tell clients who don't own Apple stock to buy at the lower price. The result is more sales commissions, just in time to increase the brokers' end-of-year bonuses.
I like a good conspiracy theory as much as the next guy.
But explain this to me: why does the market believe, not to mention fall for, such fools?
Mercedes vs Trans Am. I'm sure some Trans Am lovers are out there talking about those dopey looking Mercedes and BMW vehicles. I wish they'd at least have the self-awareness to acknowledge that their design judgments are just subjective notions they have about what looks good. It's not absolute at all. "More discerning people like me" -- do you really believe your design sensibilities are superior to others? Or that the 5 series iPhone is all that much more style'n than the 6 series? give my opinion a bit more credibility. You'll understand when you're older.
Oh my lord what a long post. Thats's the excess plaque buildup in the brain as you get older talking
Buying AAPL in late 2012 meant waiting two years for it to revisit its high, during which time it lost 45% of its value, and to this day it is less than 20% above its 2012 high, excluding dividends. It has not been a particularly good long term investment over the timeframe you delineated.
A 20% ROI over 2 years is something most investors would be quite happy with...! Anything over 8% is quite good.
As I described, the 20% ROI is from the late 2012 high to the current day. That's three years, not two as you stated, and so the annual return excluding dividends is about 6%. It took it two years just to revisit the 2012 levels during which time, one had to tolerate a 45% drop from its high. One would have been far better off investing in JACK or any number of other "growth" companies between those two points in time, and late 2012 was unequivocally a wrong time to be bullish about AAPL, which is my only point. All the things sog mentioned about Credit Suisse are certainly true and apply to many of the "research" firms, which are at best one tiny step removed from James Alan Craig and his fake Twitter accounts.
The three graphs that were posted without any context or explanation?
I figured that since you apparently knew or cared about this sort of thing you’d know that the disparity between inventory and sales is a strong indicator of the beginning of economic collapse. As is a shrinking of a year’s Q1 industrial orders (guess what happened this year), and a dearth of industry sales.
The dopey looking iPhone6 is the best selling phone in the history of man
The similiar looking iPhone6s will become the best selling phone in the history of man.
While the Note5 is struggling to sell a few million.
The 6 is nowhere near the best selling phone in history.
I figured that since you apparently knew or cared about this sort of thing you’d know that the disparity between inventory and sales is a strong indicator of the beginning of economic collapse. As is a shrinking of a year’s Q1 industrial orders (guess what happened this year), and a dearth of industry sales.
Generally the seven year cycle is the most visible, yeah? That’s just your typical booms and busts. Then there are the longer supercycles which could line up and destructively interfere.
Even the Fed doesn’t know when, and they’re the ones with the most power over it. But we’re at the end of a seven year right now, and we’re seeing several of the same things now as we did in 2008. I’ve heard the car loan bubble (up to a trillion now, was it?) is this cycle’s “subprime mortgage”.
Generally the seven year cycle is the most visible, yeah? That’s just your typical booms and busts. Then there are the longer supercycles which could line up and destructively interfere.
Even the Fed doesn’t know when, and they’re the ones with the most power over it. But we’re at the end of a seven year right now, and we’re seeing several of the same things now as we did in 2008. I’ve heard the car loan bubble (up to a trillion now, was it?) is this cycle’s “subprime mortgage”.
1) So you're basing this mostly on some calendar event like it's astrology?
2) What signs?
3) I'm not familiar with this auto loan bubble. Can you post some links? And how is that the same a mortgage bubble?
Google has updated Android OS to 6.0 which essentially steal/copy all iOS 9 features. Cook has decided not pursuing thermonuclear war against the thieves. This year a lot of Android copycats brought out smartphones which look and perform the same or better than iPhone 6s according to reviews from Forbes, etc. US carriers has stopped giving discount to new iPhones with two year contract. The new iPhone is a few hundred dollars more expensive than before. This will make more people reluctant to upgrade. I think iPhone sales has hit a wall just like iPad two years ago.
AppleTV is uninteresting. What is TV. TV originates from broadcasters using TV and airwaves as the medium. The TV networks are already threatened by internet. How much business can Apple expect from the networks?
AppleCar like Google Glass is just a gimmick.
One of the stupidest fucking posts I've ever read.
- So, what exactly do you want Cook to do? Launch more lawsuits? Apple is demolishing it's competitors in every metric that matters, so it seems they're winning the war.
- " This year a lot of Android copycats brought out smartphones which look and perform the same or better than iPhone 6s". This is nothing but a blatant lie. Please, link us to a SINGLE review about ANY phone that out performs the 6S. A single link. Otherwise, sop lying.
- No, it's not a "few hundred dollars more expensive. Another lie.
- The 6S sold 13M in a weekend. That's called a "wall"? Another lie.
- Apple TV is uninteresting? To who, you? Or is that somehow a fact? I have it, and I love it. Having an appstore on my TV opens up infinite possibilities, so no one gives a shit that you have zero imagination.
- An Apple Car is a "gimmick"? How can entire fucking car be a "gimmick"?
1) So you're basing this mostly on some calendar event like it's astrology?
Again, it’s neither exact nor perfect. Can’t deny the cycles, though.
3) I'm not familiar with this auto loan bubble. Can you post some links? And how is that the same a mortgage bubble?
About a year old (and this older), but this even says they’re subprime. And it’s apparently a trillion now.
Just a mention, but check the last chart here (yes, ZH always thinks the crash will come sooner than it does). That’s just entirely unsustainable. Something has to give, and I think it might be interest rates (at first).
Comments
Just curious. How many times have you called a depression (and a global one, no less) in the last five years? :rolleyes:
Will you be one of the ones starving to death or one of the ones being hanged from a lamppost when it happens?
Just curious.
Ouch. The former sounds uncomfortable, the latter, painful.
So my answer is, "neither."
So you either don’t believe that the economy will ever collapse again or you’ve already prepared what you need to get through it and your initial question is meaningless.
Seems the perfect gimmick. Put this out, and buy cheap. Or they are already shorting he stock. I would guess a release like this type of thing is at least half manipulation.
Check out this story from this morning:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysomaney/2015/11/10/apple-continues-to-get-slammed-on-commissionbonus-related-actionable-research/?utm_campaign=yahootix&partner=yahootix?
He points out that brokers at Credit Suisse can now tell Apple longs to sell because of the weak report, and also tell clients who don't own Apple stock to buy at the lower price. The result is more sales commissions, just in time to increase the brokers' end-of-year bonuses.
'Ever'? Who said 'ever'? Ever is a long time. A VERY long time.
You said "entering a global depression". Like it's starting to happen NOW. You really should read more often what you write before you post. Failing that, at least read what you write after you post. I don't know what else to say.
I like a good conspiracy theory as much as the next guy.
But explain this to me: why does the market believe, not to mention fall for, such fools?
Oh my lord what a long post. Thats's the excess plaque buildup in the brain as you get older talking
And gave evidence therefor. Want more?
Um...what 'evidence'? The three graphs that were posted without any context or explanation?
No.
I like a good conspiracy theory as much as the next guy.
But explain this to me: why does the market believe, not to mention fall for, such fools?
The market runs after its tail, they don't have time to think, just act
So, no malice, just shear living in fear at all time. The modern stockbroker is living in the jungle stalked by unknowns and unknowables
(mostly because you can't really "know" what wil happen in the next microsecond...)
They got the finger on the the trade button, the other one in the light socket, the light could be turned on at any time... No time to think...
So here goes the scenario:
Arg... Apple is doomed... Oh my .... Trade Trade Trade.... Please oh lord, don't let the darkness fall on me (sic)....
Ah... Apple rumor false... now can forsake god, buy Apple low, and go on a binder... Life is good.
Yeah, the whole stock market thing gets tiresome.
Quote:
Buying AAPL in late 2012 meant waiting two years for it to revisit its high, during which time it lost 45% of its value, and to this day it is less than 20% above its 2012 high, excluding dividends. It has not been a particularly good long term investment over the timeframe you delineated.
A 20% ROI over 2 years is something most investors would be quite happy with...! Anything over 8% is quite good.
As I described, the 20% ROI is from the late 2012 high to the current day. That's three years, not two as you stated, and so the annual return excluding dividends is about 6%. It took it two years just to revisit the 2012 levels during which time, one had to tolerate a 45% drop from its high. One would have been far better off investing in JACK or any number of other "growth" companies between those two points in time, and late 2012 was unequivocally a wrong time to be bullish about AAPL, which is my only point. All the things sog mentioned about Credit Suisse are certainly true and apply to many of the "research" firms, which are at best one tiny step removed from James Alan Craig and his fake Twitter accounts.
I figured that since you apparently knew or cared about this sort of thing you’d know that the disparity between inventory and sales is a strong indicator of the beginning of economic collapse. As is a shrinking of a year’s Q1 industrial orders (guess what happened this year), and a dearth of industry sales.
So when is the market going to collapse?
Generally the seven year cycle is the most visible, yeah? That’s just your typical booms and busts. Then there are the longer supercycles which could line up and destructively interfere.
Even the Fed doesn’t know when, and they’re the ones with the most power over it. But we’re at the end of a seven year right now, and we’re seeing several of the same things now as we did in 2008. I’ve heard the car loan bubble (up to a trillion now, was it?) is this cycle’s “subprime mortgage”.
1) So you're basing this mostly on some calendar event like it's astrology?
2) What signs?
3) I'm not familiar with this auto loan bubble. Can you post some links? And how is that the same a mortgage bubble?
Google has updated Android OS to 6.0 which essentially steal/copy all iOS 9 features. Cook has decided not pursuing thermonuclear war against the thieves. This year a lot of Android copycats brought out smartphones which look and perform the same or better than iPhone 6s according to reviews from Forbes, etc. US carriers has stopped giving discount to new iPhones with two year contract. The new iPhone is a few hundred dollars more expensive than before. This will make more people reluctant to upgrade. I think iPhone sales has hit a wall just like iPad two years ago.
AppleTV is uninteresting. What is TV. TV originates from broadcasters using TV and airwaves as the medium. The TV networks are already threatened by internet. How much business can Apple expect from the networks?
AppleCar like Google Glass is just a gimmick.
One of the stupidest fucking posts I've ever read.
- So, what exactly do you want Cook to do? Launch more lawsuits? Apple is demolishing it's competitors in every metric that matters, so it seems they're winning the war.
- " This year a lot of Android copycats brought out smartphones which look and perform the same or better than iPhone 6s". This is nothing but a blatant lie. Please, link us to a SINGLE review about ANY phone that out performs the 6S. A single link. Otherwise, sop lying.
- No, it's not a "few hundred dollars more expensive. Another lie.
- The 6S sold 13M in a weekend. That's called a "wall"? Another lie.
- Apple TV is uninteresting? To who, you? Or is that somehow a fact? I have it, and I love it. Having an appstore on my TV opens up infinite possibilities, so no one gives a shit that you have zero imagination.
- An Apple Car is a "gimmick"? How can entire fucking car be a "gimmick"?
Too much stupid in one post.
Again, it’s neither exact nor perfect. Can’t deny the cycles, though.
About a year old (and this older), but this even says they’re subprime. And it’s apparently a trillion now.
Just a mention, but check the last chart here (yes, ZH always thinks the crash will come sooner than it does). That’s just entirely unsustainable. Something has to give, and I think it might be interest rates (at first).