Analyst projects 21M Apple Watch shipments in first year, $8.4B in revenue

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in General Discussion
Speaking at the first ever Glance conference, noted Apple analyst Horace Dediu said he expects Apple Watch shipments to reach 21 million units in its first full year of sales, a tally estimated to bring in some $8.4 billion in revenue.




According to Fortune's Philip Elmer-DeWitt, who attended the event as a reporter and panelist, Dediu calculated an average selling price of $400 for Apple Watch over its first 12 months of availability. The numbers skew heavily toward Apple Watch Sport models, which start at $349 or $399, depending on size.

Creative Strategies analyst Ben Bajarin added that current trends indicate Apple will move "well over" 100 million Apple Watch units by 2017, a staggering number considering Dediu's estimates of 21 million by mid-2016. Elmer-DeWitt reports Apple currently enjoys an 80 percent share of the smartwatch market, a new segment showing signs of rapid growth.

Dediu pointed out that Apple Watch is not in competition with traditional watches, but rather naked wrists -- some 30 percent of owners didn't wear anything on their wrists prior to Apple's smartwatch.

On health monitoring, a tentpole feature highly touted in Apple's ongoing ad campaign, 85 percent of owners said the device contributed to better health, while 27 percent said they lost weight.

Finally, 82 percent of early Apple Watch adopters said they gifted the device to a friend. The statistic is much higher than a recent poll from Reuters/Ipsos that found 62 percent of current owners plan to give Watch as a gift.

Moving into the holiday season, Apple authorized resellers are offering deep discounts on many Watch models. For example, Best Buy is slashing $100 off retail pricing, while B&H Photo dropped prices by $50 and is offering a $50 store gift card with each purchase.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 36
    My wife's Apple Watch arrived today from B&H and I'm already jealous. Once you see someone using it in person it really is impressive. Totally understand why owners are so likely to give them as gifts. I guess all the people who keep calling the watch a flop can move on to something else now?
    jakebequality72521redgeminipajustadcomics
  • Reply 2 of 36
    Being following Horace for years - very smart man. He was the one who drew attention to the increase in Apple services as a cash cow many moons ago - something the Business News Media Circus missed as they chased and interviewed hedge fund rumors, Wall Street players and any other BS Apple expert BS'ing to fill air time  - costs nothing and its cheaper than journalism... especially when your selling prescription drug adverts.
    edited December 2015 retrogustoargonaut
  • Reply 3 of 36
    100mm units? Now the Swiss watch dudes are really going to pee in their pants
  • Reply 4 of 36
    netroxnetrox Posts: 716member
    Methinks it's totally overestimated so they can say, "Apple is doomed!"
    jakeb
  • Reply 5 of 36
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 6,782member
    Wall Street doesn’t care anymore. Wall Street has dropped AAPL like a hot potato. It’s been trading in very narrow range for months now. Apple could triple its revenue and the stock wouldn’t move an inch. The naysayers have triumphed and that’s all there is to it. I read an article on Yahoo Financial the other day when AAPL jumped $3.00. The response was quite literally WTF happened today? And the stock has since dropped back to its $115 or so plateau. 
    irelandjustadcomics
  • Reply 6 of 36
    sflocalsflocal Posts: 4,492member
    lkrupp said:
    Wall Street doesn’t care anymore. Wall Street has dropped AAPL like a hot potato. It’s been trading in very narrow range for months now. Apple could triple its revenue and the stock wouldn’t move an inch. The naysayers have triumphed and that’s all there is to it. I read an article on Yahoo Financial the other day when AAPL jumped $3.00. The response was quite literally WTF happened today? And the stock has since dropped back to its $115 or so plateau. 
    I guess Wall Street just doesn't like AAPL because it's too "boring" a stock as it just commands all the money in the industry.  They want unstable stocks so they can better game the system.

    F**ktards.
    zoetmbredgeminipachiajustadcomics
  • Reply 7 of 36
    I'm trying to find all of the analysts who originally predicted the Apple Watch would be an epic failure.
    We knew better.
  • Reply 8 of 36
    radarthekatradarthekat Posts: 2,991moderator
    Entering the elevator with my bike after a ride today, a neighbor asked if I got a good workout.  I raised my Watch to show him my 16.1 mile ride, and only then noticed he was wearing a Fitbit.  He started asking questions about the Watch and from the first to the 5th floor I was able to give him a short demo of several features.  It was the first time he'd seen the Apple Watch and he was visibly impressed and started comparing to the Fitbit, saying he wants the additional features of the Watch.  I think that's an under appreciated aspect of the Watch.  The Fitbit just sits there on your wrist counting steps or whatever, but a SmartWatch is engaging.  You interact with it and that creates a far higher level of engagement, worth the one-time extra couple hundred bucks.  I'll bet next time I run into that neighbor he'll be sporting an Apple Watch.
    fotoformatredgeminipairelandjustadcomics
  • Reply 9 of 36
    Total Swiss watch Industry sales (2014) were $22 billion. That's everything from $50 Swatches to $1.7 million Richard Mille Felipe Massas and including Rolex at $4.5 billion.   

    At $8.4 billion in first year sales Apple would be close to double Rolex and 40% of total Swiss watch sales which are already in significant decline, impacted at least partially by Apple, I think, but certainly also the crackdown on corruption in China.

    I personally think Apple's impact on the ultra luxury Swiss watch market will be significant as the utility value (and coolness) of an Apple Watch diminishes the appeal of five figure plus high status mechanical watches. Just as personal digital audio has impacted the high end audiophile market and smartphones have impacted the high end camera market. 
    anantksundaramargonautirelandjustadcomics
  • Reply 10 of 36
    I think that both are optimistic estimates, but even if it were 15M sold and $6B-$7B in revenue (incl Watch bands) -- which I think it will be -- that is a stunning success. Easily the most successful Apple new product. Ever. 

    The naysayers will eat crow. Yet again. (And major kudos will be due to @sog35 who never wavered from his forecast).
    latifbpargonautslprescottchianolamacguy
  • Reply 11 of 36
    mcarlingmcarling Posts: 1,106member
    sflocal said:
    lkrupp said:
    Wall Street doesn’t care anymore. Wall Street has dropped AAPL like a hot potato. It’s been trading in very narrow range for months now. Apple could triple its revenue and the stock wouldn’t move an inch. The naysayers have triumphed and that’s all there is to it. I read an article on Yahoo Financial the other day when AAPL jumped $3.00. The response was quite literally WTF happened today? And the stock has since dropped back to its $115 or so plateau. 
    I guess Wall Street just doesn't like AAPL because it's too "boring" a stock as it just commands all the money in the industry.  They want unstable stocks so they can better game the system.

    F**ktards.
    What's going on is that many investors don't believe Apple can continue to grow and generate even more profit than today because no company ever has before.  Of course, that's a silly fallacy.  When Apple actually does grow and generate more profit next year, then the stock price will rise (roughly in proportion to profits because the idiots will continue to believe that no company can grow any bigger and any more profitable than what they've seen before).
    redgeminipa
  • Reply 12 of 36
    fallenjtfallenjt Posts: 3,976member
    I couldn't wait for 2nd generation, so I went to BB and picked up one today, a 42mm Sport Gold/midnight blue band for $299. Love the thing. The watch charged so fast. I decided not to buy a charge dock, but drilled the hole in the original case right under the watch, place the charge plate and cable under; there is my charge dock.

    edited December 2015 redgeminipajustadcomicsdasanman69pscooter63
  • Reply 13 of 36
    irelandireland Posts: 17,547member
    It's easily the best smartwatch. A circular display has too many tradeoffs and Apple's watch looks to be the best built, most luxury, most personal and fashionable.

    But I don't wear watches. I don't like things on my wrist. I also don't want technology physically attached to me. I do fully get why Apple had to be in this market though.
    edited December 2015
  • Reply 14 of 36
    I think the pdnoble said:
    Total Swiss watch Industry sales (2014) were $22 billion. That's everything from $50 Swatches to $1.7 million Richard Mille Felipe Massas and including Rolex at $4.5 billion.   

    At $8.4 billion in first year sales Apple would be close to double Rolex and 40% of total Swiss watch sales which are already in significant decline, impacted at least partially by Apple, I think, but certainly also the crackdown on corruption in China.

    I personally think Apple's impact on the ultra luxury Swiss watch market will be significant as the utility value (and coolness) of an Apple Watch diminishes the appeal of five figure plus high status mechanical watches. Just as personal digital audio has impacted the high end audiophile market and smartphones have impacted the high end camera market. 
    and I think Apple Watch will not impact the high end (like the iPhone didn't eat the DSLR market, but the 'point and clicks') as much as you think. at least short term.

    I think the Apple Watch will drive the $50-$250 watch market 'up' into Apple Watch space.  and draw a new market of people who don't wear a watch (I haven't in 10 years but did for 30 years prior).   Short term, Market 'share' may shift, but I think Apple will grow a new market, instead of supplanting most of the incumbents (like the iPhone, the first years after it's release, BlackBerry actually grew in market share, as did the 'dumb phone market [e.g. timex] ).

    And at the high end, I don't think there will be much of a dent.  In fact, if you feel a $10K watch on your wrist is 'you,' you'll probably have another 3-5 $5000+ watches in your top drawer.   Like Diamonds and Pearls.  Fashion is like that.

    Long term, I do think there will be an impact, and because Apple is all about long term, that's where I think Apple will emerge as a techno-fashion leader.
  • Reply 15 of 36
    MacProMacPro Posts: 18,141member
    I think the pdnoble said:
    Total Swiss watch Industry sales (2014) were $22 billion. That's everything from $50 Swatches to $1.7 million Richard Mille Felipe Massas and including Rolex at $4.5 billion.   

    At $8.4 billion in first year sales Apple would be close to double Rolex and 40% of total Swiss watch sales which are already in significant decline, impacted at least partially by Apple, I think, but certainly also the crackdown on corruption in China.

    I personally think Apple's impact on the ultra luxury Swiss watch market will be significant as the utility value (and coolness) of an Apple Watch diminishes the appeal of five figure plus high status mechanical watches. Just as personal digital audio has impacted the high end audiophile market and smartphones have impacted the high end camera market. 
    and I think Apple Watch will not impact the high end (like the iPhone didn't eat the DSLR market, but the 'point and clicks') as much as you think. at least short term.

    I think the Apple Watch will drive the $50-$250 watch market 'up' into Apple Watch space.  and draw a new market of people who don't wear a watch (I haven't in 10 years but did for 30 years prior).   Short term, Market 'share' may shift, but I think Apple will grow a new market, instead of supplanting most of the incumbents (like the iPhone, the first years after it's release, BlackBerry actually grew in market share, as did the 'dumb phone market [e.g. timex] ).

    And at the high end, I don't think there will be much of a dent.  In fact, if you feel a $10K watch on your wrist is 'you,' you'll probably have another 3-5 $5000+ watches in your top drawer.   Like Diamonds and Pearls.  Fashion is like that.

    Long term, I do think there will be an impact, and because Apple is all about long term, that's where I think Apple will emerge as a techno-fashion leader.
    You are absolutely correct, Apple is about the long term.  That is what Wall Street never seems to understand.  They always want any new Apple product to be an over night sensation that sells billions out of the gate like the 'iPhone did'  ....   except it didn't! It took a few years.  Psychologists would coin a new term, 'memory compression' for those idiots.
    nolamacguy
  • Reply 16 of 36
    Tim Bajarin, who's covered Apple for like 30 years, said at this conference that Steve Jobs was aware of the Watch and signed off on the project before he died.
  • Reply 17 of 36
    lkrupp said:
    Wall Street doesn’t care anymore. Wall Street has dropped AAPL like a hot potato. It’s been trading in very narrow range for months now. Apple could triple its revenue and the stock wouldn’t move an inch. The naysayers have triumphed and that’s all there is to it. I read an article on Yahoo Financial the other day when AAPL jumped $3.00. The response was quite literally WTF happened today? And the stock has since dropped back to its $115 or so plateau. 
    Unfortunately the Wall Street/broader media narrative on Apple is the future is always bleak. Right now the stock is doing nothing because some analysts are freaking out about the March quarter. And if the March quarter is good they'll just freak out about the June quarter or the September quarter. This is the cycle: analysts paint the future as bleak; Apple posts record numbers and good guidance but the stock drops anyway; analysts explain it away by saying stock price is based on the future not past results and go back to fretting and painting a bleak future. Rinse and repeat every quarter.
    edited December 2015
  • Reply 18 of 36
    I think that both are optimistic estimates, but even if it were 15M sold and $6B-$7B in revenue (incl Watch bands) -- which I think it will be -- that is a stunning success. Easily the most successful Apple new product. Ever. 

    The naysayers will eat crow. Yet again. (And major kudos will be due to @sog35 who never wavered from his forecast).
    Yep. And Neil Cybart, who used to be Wall Street and now analyzes Apple, says he doesn't think these Target and Best Buy Watch promotions are a result of the product not selling. He attributes it to stores using the promotion to generate more traffic to their stores and Apple being OK with that. Amazon stock is up over 100% this year while most B&M are down a lot.
  • Reply 19 of 36
    thrangthrang Posts: 761member
    Back in March I guessed 23m...I guess I'm an analyst...
  • Reply 20 of 36
    I think that both are optimistic estimates, but even if it were 15M sold and $6B-$7B in revenue (incl Watch bands) -- which I think it will be -- that is a stunning success. Easily the most successful Apple new product. Ever. 

    The naysayers will eat crow. Yet again. (And major kudos will be due to @sog35 who never wavered from his forecast).
    Yes, I echo you 100%  It baffles me that some people are still calling the Apple Watch a 'fail'.  $8 BILLION dollars in the 1st year of a new product?  Or -- as you say -- even if it's only 50% of that, it's still $4 BILLION dollars.  Most businesses would kill to grow their top line revenue by such a huge leap in a single year.  Congrats, Apple.
    chia
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