Analyst projects 21M Apple Watch shipments in first year, $8.4B in revenue

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Comments

  • Reply 21 of 36
    (And major kudos will be due to @sog35 who never wavered from his forecast).
    Got to give kudos where kudos are due. If these numbers pan out @sog35 ;
    definitely got it right.

    Stock price maybe won't hit $150 any time soon, but 1 for 2 isn't bad for predictions made so long ago.

    Additionally, I'll take this moment to say to sog once again please don't self ban, this place just wouldn't be the same without you.
    pscooter63
  • Reply 22 of 36
    fallenjt said:
    I couldn't wait for 2nd generation, so I went to BB and picked up one today, a 42mm Sport Gold/midnight blue band for $299. Love the thing. The watch charged so fast. I decided not to buy a charge dock, but drilled the hole in the original case right under the watch, place the charge plate and cable under; there is my charge dock.

    Pretty clever!
  • Reply 23 of 36
    tmaytmay Posts: 3,667member
    sog35 said:
    I think that both are optimistic estimates, but even if it were 15M sold and $6B-$7B in revenue (incl Watch bands) -- which I think it will be -- that is a stunning success. Easily the most successful Apple new product. Ever. 

    The naysayers will eat crow. Yet again. (And major kudos will be due to @sog35 who never wavered from his forecast).
    Yes, I echo you 100%  It baffles me that some people are still calling the Apple Watch a 'fail'.  $8 BILLION dollars in the 1st year of a new product?  Or -- as you say -- even if it's only 50% of that, it's still $4 BILLION dollars.  Most businesses would kill to grow their top line revenue by such a huge leap in a single year.  Congrats, Apple.

    It is crazy how much Wall Street ignores Watch revenue.

    $8 billion in revenue in the first year is crazy.
    Ticket sales for Hollywood in 2014 was $10 billion.

    So basically Apple created a revenue stream almost as big as Hollywood in a single year.  Freakin amazing. 
    I figured 15m was conservative for calendar year sales, and for the record, I thought that your chances of being banned were slim. For prespective, I would note that Surface after four iterations isn't (yet anyway) approaching those sales rates.


    Me, I'm interested in seeing how the iPad Pro does in reviving iPad sales.
  • Reply 24 of 36
    brucemcbrucemc Posts: 1,527member
    21M Watches in first calendar year does seem high given the "estimates" of shipped units to date, but it is within the realm of possibility.  15M certainly seems achievable giving level of interest, making AW one of (if not the) best Apple product generation 1 products ever.  But of course it is a failure to the mediablogosphere:)

    Curious to know if (good) analysts like Horace can tease out the margins over time.  At $350+, but in a small package, the margins should be (after teething pains of production) as good as, or better, than iPhone (remember cost of equipment to manufacture and R&D is not calculated in per-unit margin, but yield does affect it).  Apple said that margins initially would be below Apple average, but that could have been only in the 1st quarter while the production & component issues were sorted.  The margins on AW should be much better than iPad.

    On valuation, it is partially because the market is valuing Apple as though it is a pure hardware vendor of electronics with absolutely no "stickiness".  That if Apple introduces an iPhone that is less than great every time, the customers will immediately migrate to Android.  That Apple has to introduce home runs every time, or there can be no growth.

    Apple should carry a valuation of a company with a large recurring revenue stream with a wide moat to entry, given their product set, ecosystem, customer satisfaction, and loyalty.  Most Apple users remain within the products in question and tend to expand within the ecosystem.  Apple has many tools it can use to expand this notion, and they have started with the iPhone Upgrade Program (in US).  This could be expanded to multiple product lines, they could provide offer wider Apple Care bundles for groups of products, etc.

    Apples valuation could easily be 25% higher if the market saw them as such - and that is without introducing any new blockbuster categories.
    edited December 2015
  • Reply 25 of 36
    I think the pdnoble said:
    Total Swiss watch Industry sales (2014) were $22 billion. That's everything from $50 Swatches to $1.7 million Richard Mille Felipe Massas and including Rolex at $4.5 billion.   

    At $8.4 billion in first year sales Apple would be close to double Rolex and 40% of total Swiss watch sales which are already in significant decline, impacted at least partially by Apple, I think, but certainly also the crackdown on corruption in China.

    I personally think Apple's impact on the ultra luxury Swiss watch market will be significant as the utility value (and coolness) of an Apple Watch diminishes the appeal of five figure plus high status mechanical watches. Just as personal digital audio has impacted the high end audiophile market and smartphones have impacted the high end camera market. 
    and I think Apple Watch will not impact the high end (like the iPhone didn't eat the DSLR market, but the 'point and clicks') as much as you think. at least short term.

    I think the Apple Watch will drive the $50-$250 watch market 'up' into Apple Watch space.  and draw a new market of people who don't wear a watch (I haven't in 10 years but did for 30 years prior).   Short term, Market 'share' may shift, but I think Apple will grow a new market, instead of supplanting most of the incumbents (like the iPhone, the first years after it's release, BlackBerry actually grew in market share, as did the 'dumb phone market [e.g. timex] ).

    And at the high end, I don't think there will be much of a dent.  In fact, if you feel a $10K watch on your wrist is 'you,' you'll probably have another 3-5 $5000+ watches in your top drawer.   Like Diamonds and Pearls.  Fashion is like that.

    Long term, I do think there will be an impact, and because Apple is all about long term, that's where I think Apple will emerge as a techno-fashion leader.
    Geoff,

    I was trying to avoid any personal reference in my argument. My personal experience and observation suggest that we will see guys with AP's, PP's switching to Apple Watches, and once they have made that switch losing some or all interest in the analog market. On the margin. But it only takes a small dip in a market to cause long term fallout to its participants, starting with the weaker brands.

    Interchangeable lens camera sales have actually declined significantly over the past few years and and although I have been unable to find historic data that covers the past 40 years my personal observation is that the thriving hobbyist/status camera market is much diminished from the heyday of SLRs as is the audiophile market, though it was somewhat revived by home theater. In cameras the two remaining status brands: Nikon and Canon are both hurting beyond the impact of Sony's growth and all the other brands are absorbed or gone. I see the risk of that happening to the Swiss watch industry over time too. 

    I think we are seeing male focused 'status' markets under technological assault from good enough convenience (cameras, audio) or better (smart watches). I would predict that autonomous vehicles will have a similar impact on the status car market though also driven by a shift away from ownership. Another market Apple looks primed to enter.
  • Reply 26 of 36
    That's amazing. Apple sells 21 million Apple Watches. The rest of the industry sells a total of less than 1 million.
  • Reply 27 of 36
    I think that both are optimistic estimates, but even if it were 15M sold and $6B-$7B in revenue (incl Watch bands) -- which I think it will be -- that is a stunning success. Easily the most successful Apple new product. Ever. 

    The naysayers will eat crow. Yet again. (And major kudos will be due to @sog35 who never wavered from his forecast).
    Thats funny because I'm reading shipments not sold. Interesting how when an article about Apple says that your good with it, when it's Samsung your all over it. 

    If the Apple Watch was the most successful Apple product ever then places like Best Buy and other online retail stores wouldn't be offering 50-100 dollars off. You don't discount items you're selling without any problems. Apple is shipping them problem is they aren't selling. 



  • Reply 28 of 36
    atlapple said:
    Thats funny because I'm reading shipments not sold. Interesting how when an article about Apple says that your good with it, when it's Samsung your all over it. 

    If the Apple Watch was the most successful Apple product ever then places like Best Buy and other online retail stores wouldn't be offering 50-100 dollars off. You don't discount items you're selling without any problems. Apple is shipping them problem is they aren't selling. 
    what nonsense. you seem to be confusing a best product launch ever for the manufacturer (Apple) and whats good for retailers (Best Buy). it is very common for retailers to offer sales on popular items during peak events, because your margins are already good, and while the sale margin is less than usual, you make it up in volume. plus, added bonus of ancillary spending once in the door.

    thanks for the obvious troll trope, tho. helps me learn how to weigh your comments appropriately. and i gotta tell you, they dont weigh heavily.
    edited December 2015
  • Reply 29 of 36
    atlapple said:
    Thats funny because I'm reading shipments not sold. Interesting how when an article about Apple says that your good with it, when it's Samsung your all over it. 

    If the Apple Watch was the most successful Apple product ever then places like Best Buy and other online retail stores wouldn't be offering 50-100 dollars off. You don't discount items you're selling without any problems. Apple is shipping them problem is they aren't selling. 
    what nonsense. you seem to be confusing a best product launch ever for the manufacturer (Apple) and whats good for retailers (Best Buy). it is very common for retailers to offer sales on popular items during peak events, because your margins are already good, and while the sale margin is less than usual, you make it up in volume. plus, added bonus of ancillary spending once in the door.

    thanks for the obvious troll trope, tho. helps me learn how to weigh your comments appropriately. and i gotta tell you, they dont weigh heavily.
    LOL. I own an Apple Watch as does my wife, so I'm hardly trolling. Common sense dictates that "deep discounts" and selling well doesn't match. If you had a product that was selling well would you provide a 100.00 discount on a 399.00 watch?

    Also shipped does not equal sold. The launch of the Apple Watch was awful. Took forever to get it to market, followed by a 4-6 week wait when it finally did come to market, then a month before it could be had in a retail Apple store. 

    iPad Pro awful launch. Most consumers still can't get the keyboard attachment or the Pencil. 

    How about that beautiful Apple iPhone battery case? Now all iPhone users can know what it feels like to own an android device. That thing is ugly as hell, yet Apple will still try to make the next iPhone thinner. 

    Maybe Tim Cook should start working at Apple full time and give up his second job as a political activist. 
  • Reply 30 of 36
    fallenjtfallenjt Posts: 3,976member
    sog35 said:
    I think that both are optimistic estimates, but even if it were 15M sold and $6B-$7B in revenue (incl Watch bands) -- which I think it will be -- that is a stunning success. Easily the most successful Apple new product. Ever. 

    The naysayers will eat crow. Yet again. (And major kudos will be due to @sog35 who never wavered from his forecast).
    Yes, I echo you 100%  It baffles me that some people are still calling the Apple Watch a 'fail'.  $8 BILLION dollars in the 1st year of a new product?  Or -- as you say -- even if it's only 50% of that, it's still $4 BILLION dollars.  Most businesses would kill to grow their top line revenue by such a huge leap in a single year.  Congrats, Apple.

    It is crazy how much Wall Street ignores Watch revenue.

    $8 billion in revenue in the first year is crazy.
    Ticket sales for Hollywood in 2014 was $10 billion.

    So basically Apple created a revenue stream almost as big as Hollywood in a single year.  Freakin amazing. 
    Even myself I didn't believe Apple would hit close to 15M. This really blows me away. Kudos to you @Sog35
  • Reply 31 of 36
    SoliSoli Posts: 8,748member
    (And major kudos will be due to @sog35 who never wavered from his forecast).
    For what reason should we praise and honor someone for a fact-less conviction they constantly forced upon others as some unwavering truth, and for which they offered zero supportive arguments or anything resembling a hypothesis that showed it to be anything other than a desire paired with a guess? With that logic we might as well give kudos to religious radicals for completing their mass murder goals.
    edited December 2015
  • Reply 32 of 36
    fallenjt said:

    Even myself I didn't believe Apple would hit close to 15M. This really blows me away. Kudos to you @Sog35
    It's all academic as Apple doesn't report watch sales.
  • Reply 33 of 36
    hentaiboy said:
    fallenjt said:

    Even myself I didn't believe Apple would hit close to 15M. This really blows me away. Kudos to you @Sog35
    It's all academic as Apple doesn't report watch sales.
    Right... "Academic", so if the "other" sections goes up 10B in one year, it would all come out of the Apple TV and Ipod sales over half that period? (Despite those Apple TV and Ipod sales falling to near zero just before the refresh.... We already have a lot being said in the earning calls if you care to listen.
  • Reply 34 of 36
    atlapple said:
    atlapple said:
    Thats funny because I'm reading shipments not sold. Interesting how when an article about Apple says that your good with it, when it's Samsung your all over it. 

    If the Apple Watch was the most successful Apple product ever then places like Best Buy and other online retail stores wouldn't be offering 50-100 dollars off. You don't discount items you're selling without any problems. Apple is shipping them problem is they aren't selling. 
    what nonsense. you seem to be confusing a best product launch ever for the manufacturer (Apple) and whats good for retailers (Best Buy). it is very common for retailers to offer sales on popular items during peak events, because your margins are already good, and while the sale margin is less than usual, you make it up in volume. plus, added bonus of ancillary spending once in the door.

    thanks for the obvious troll trope, tho. helps me learn how to weigh your comments appropriately. and i gotta tell you, they dont weigh heavily.
    LOL. I own an Apple Watch as does my wife, so I'm hardly trolling. Common sense dictates that "deep discounts" and selling well doesn't match. If you had a product that was selling well would you provide a 100.00 discount on a 399.00 watch?

    Also shipped does not equal sold. The launch of the Apple Watch was awful. Took forever to get it to market, followed by a 4-6 week wait when it finally did come to market, then a month before it could be had in a retail Apple store. 

    iPad Pro awful launch. Most consumers still can't get the keyboard attachment or the Pencil. 

    How about that beautiful Apple iPhone battery case? Now all iPhone users can know what it feels like to own an android device. That thing is ugly as hell, yet Apple will still try to make the next iPhone thinner. 

    Maybe Tim Cook should start working at Apple full time and give up his second job as a political activist. 
    You're talking PURE BS.

    Almost all sales for the first 6 months were through only Apple channels and all sell-through. Earning calls disprove your crap.

    As for the rest, you have no clue; or are volountarily playing dumb.
    Discount on a hot product can help fuel store visits which in the holiday seasons are like gold.

    Apple doesn't force Target to "load up" on things; that's not retail channels work.
    Demand pulls orders through the channel.
    Target said demand for the watches was very high.

    Most mass market channels were just starting to sell the watches, so why on earth would they feel they're stuck with them (when they weren't really selling them before) and the holiday season only starts in late november!). Those are the sales they're reporting now, when they just started selling them in mass market channels.

    Funny how Ipad pro launch is so bad it will probably kill the Surface in annual sales in just one quarter... Yeah. horrible.

    Maybe it's time you stop just spouting.



  • Reply 35 of 36
    atlapple said:
    I think that both are optimistic estimates, but even if it were 15M sold and $6B-$7B in revenue (incl Watch bands) -- which I think it will be -- that is a stunning success. Easily the most successful Apple new product. Ever. 

    The naysayers will eat crow. Yet again. (And major kudos will be due to @sog35 who never wavered from his forecast).
    Thats funny because I'm reading shipments not sold. Interesting how when an article about Apple says that your good with it, when it's Samsung your all over it. 

    If the Apple Watch was the most successful Apple product ever then places like Best Buy and other online retail stores wouldn't be offering 50-100 dollars off. You don't discount items you're selling without any problems. Apple is shipping them problem is they aren't selling. 



    Another no clue person. You do know THOSE STORES JUST STARTED SELLING THESE THINGs. Wallmart just starting this week. Do you even know how retail really works?

    Discounting happens when you can't move stuff, not when you just got them and you could easily just wait it out and sell them. Because it's obvious from all market analysts that these things are selling well.

    BTW, you don't promote things nobody wants. Nobody gives crap if they give away Samsung smart watches for free. That tells you something.
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