Doing and saying nothing is exactly the right strategy, until the earnings report.
The analysts and the tech rumor sites, including the negative comment threads, are just so much contemptible noise, for the reasons he already gave two years ago. Beneath comment for someone like him, who expects people will listen to what he says and learn from experience that Apple has the products and the marketing to keep growing.
Tim Cook already said something over a year ago about reading the supply chain tea leaves. These people obviously don't listen to or believe anything Tim says (even though their financial reports have backed up everything he said), so why bother continuing to play this stupid game? Instead, let the quarterly report speak for itself.
If you're a long-term investor, the price hitting this low gives you an opportunity to expand your investment. If you're a day trader, well that's the gamble you made.
I don't think Apple will miss their FQ1 numbers, but the odds are looking good that FQ2 guide will be pretty downbeat. They wouldn't warn about a quarter they haven't guided to yet, hence no warning.
Thanks for that contribution to the discussion.
I can see you're a long-time contributor to AI /s
and you're here to tell us that Apple's future doesn't look good. We've never hear that before ;=)
He already has explained to not rely on supply chain checks and has already provided guidance for the quarter. A skill of intelligent people is to learn how to ignore the noise of idiots and focus on your objective. There's no need for him to argue with crazy people who make shit up.
On top of this, if the stock price sinks Apple can buyback more shares from all the analysts wetting themselves over the ipocolypse. It's a win-win situation.
Typical Tim Cook KoolAir drinking response.
If stock goes up - YEAH Tim Cook! If stock goes down - YEAH Tim Cook can buy shares for cheap.
Wall Street analyst have highjacked Apple stock since Tim Cook became CEO. Its an absolute joke that Tim does nothing to dispute these lies. So he explained not to rely on supply chain checks? When was that? One year ago? 6 months ago? In today's market that's like 100 years ago.
If some rumor came out that McDonalds was serving horse meat and CNN, CNBC, Wall Street Journal, ect all reported it. Do you think the McDonalds CEO would say nothing? Its so sickening that you guys give Tim Cook the benefit of the doubt every time. Tim Cook does not equal Apple. You can criticize Cook without criticizing Apple.
So Cook has no time to dispute LIES about the supply chain that has been going around for MONTHS yet he has time to do a long ass interview on 60 minutes to talk about tax evasion?
Whatever Tim Cook says gets washed away by more FUD in a matter of days, not months, so it ultimately takes a back seat to performance. Should he fight the crazies every day? If the rumors are bogus, there's no sense in arguing continuously against them. Time and facts will win.
I don't think Apple will miss their FQ1 numbers, but the odds are looking good that FQ2 guide will be pretty downbeat. They wouldn't warn about a quarter they haven't guided to yet, hence no warning.
Wow. You are just like every other Wall Street analyist troll.
"Sure Apple did great this quarter. But they will suck next quarter" Next quarter comes, and Apple beats again. "Sure Apple did great this quarter. But they will suck next quarter"
Go write your crap on Montly Fool
A fall from 60 million units in the March quarter is possible, but it's completely baked in now. Up from here later this year.
I don't think Apple will miss their FQ1 numbers, but the odds are looking good that FQ2 guide will be pretty downbeat. They wouldn't warn about a quarter they haven't guided to yet, hence no warning.
Thanks for that contribution to the discussion.
I can see you're a long-time contributor to AI /s
and you're here to tell us that Apple's future doesn't look good. We've never hear that before ;=)
Long time lurker, finally decided to join!
Look, I really like Apple and its products (I bought both the iPhone 6s and 6s Plus, use an iPad Air 2, own an Apple Watch), but I do think the iPhone 6s/6s Plus cycle is going to be a tough one for Apple. iPhone 6/6 Plus cycle was just a monster and while iPhone 6s/6s Plus brought a lot of very sweet technical innovations, they don't appear to be enough to drive growth.
I think we'll see a lot of goodies with iPhone 7 and we could very well see people who "pulled in" their upgrades to get the 6/6 Plus (effectively moving off of the "s" cycle and onto the "new number" cycle) upgrade to the 7, potentially helping iPhone return to growth during that cycle.
Apple's longer-term future is still probably very bright -- they have the best and the brightest working for them and management is very good -- but in the near term things might not be so rosy.
Maybe Tim Cook isn't disputing these reports because they are true and iphone numbers will be light for the quarter. Also, he doesn't have to issue a warning just because of light iphone sales, only if the total revenue of the company is below guidance. IMO this would be a good scenario as it tells me that sales of macs, ipads, watches etc. etc. are doing better than expected which will quiet those who think Apple is a one trick pony with the iphone.
I don't think Apple will miss their FQ1 numbers, but the odds are looking good that FQ2 guide will be pretty downbeat. They wouldn't warn about a quarter they haven't guided to yet, hence no warning.
According to First Call via Yahoo, average (36 analysts) top line Q1->Q2 is down ~30% (~$77B -> ~$59B) whereas avg. bottom line Q1->Q2 ests. are down ~35% ($3.25 to $2.39), so 30-35% is "expected".
I think we'll see a lot of goodies with iPhone 7 and we could very well see people who "pulled in" their upgrades to get the 6/6 Plus (effectively moving off of the "s" cycle and onto the "new number" cycle) upgrade to the 7, potentially helping iPhone return to growth during that cycle.
If they remove the 3.5mm headphone jack, I'll happily stay with my 6S until the headphone market adjusts or the iPhone 7 fails miserably.
He already has explained to not rely on supply chain checks and has already provided guidance for the quarter. A skill of intelligent people is to learn how to ignore the noise of idiots and focus on your objective. There's no need for him to argue with crazy people who make shit up.
On top of this, if the stock price sinks Apple can buyback more shares from all the analysts wetting themselves over the ipocolypse. It's a win-win situation.
Typical Tim Cook KoolAir drinking response.
If stock goes up - YEAH Tim Cook! If stock goes down - YEAH Tim Cook can buy shares for cheap.
Wall Street analyst have highjacked Apple stock since Tim Cook became CEO. Its an absolute joke that Tim does nothing to dispute these lies. So he explained not to rely on supply chain checks? When was that? One year ago? 6 months ago? In today's market that's like 100 years ago.
If some rumor came out that McDonalds was serving horse meat and CNN, CNBC, Wall Street Journal, ect all reported it. Do you think the McDonalds CEO would say nothing? Its so sickening that you guys give Tim Cook the benefit of the doubt every time. Tim Cook does not equal Apple. You can criticize Cook without criticizing Apple.
So Cook has no time to dispute LIES about the supply chain that has been going around for MONTHS yet he has time to do a long ass interview on 60 minutes to talk about tax evasion?
You are far, far too hard on Tim Cook. The guy is doing the best job he can and frankly I don't know what you expect him to do.
Again, you are assuming these supply chain reports are wrong. Why do you completely discount the idea that they might be correct?
I don't think you should use the Tim Cook quote about supply chain checks as a way to immediately discount these reports. One particular data point from one supplier might not tell you the whole story, but there have been many data points from many different suppliers, and they all point to the same thing.
Anyway, Tim Cook's job is to run the business for the long-term, and I think he's done a good job so far of doing just that.
As an investor, you need to decide whether you believe in the company & its management to deliver you value over the long-term.
This is probably the 15th time these supply chain rumors have come out since November. And each time the stock losses $10 billion to $30 billion in value.
Yet Tim Cook says absolutely NOTHING. The stock is down nearly $180 billion since these rumors have started. Yet Cook does nothing.
Not to add fuel to your fire, you know Apple is now in the quite period, even if Cook wanted to say something he could not, unless the rumors were true and his guidance he gave was off a material amount then he would have to put out some pre-announcement. However, Cook gave no guidance on 2016 quarters so he can not speak out at this time. Thank the SEC about these quite period.
It does not matter what cook says, Samsung gave warning all last year and the analysis and others kept saying Samsung was going to do well. Did Samsung come out and correct those people and tell them their upside predictions were wrong, no nor do they have to say those were wrong since they were rumors of the up side not the down side. But the analysis upbeat rumors of Samsung pending success did not help its stock, it kept falling.
It does not matter if Cook or even Steve was still there the net results will be the same. Wall Street analysis believe 2016 is going to be a difficult year for the cell phone industry. Samsung has already warned of pending Doom so it getting tap onto Apple. The market is making money on shorting Apple and that is all that matters to them.
I work in the Supply Chain Field and I know how communications work with suppliers and I can present a number of scenarios where a supplier would be saying they are seeing a cut in forecast but OEM business is still doing well. Cook already told the everyone not to use supply chain to forecast Apple business but they keep doing it.
In this case the market is just helping Apple pull more shares off the market at a fast pace, which means dividends will increase and I get a bigger check ever quarter, 2 more years of these dividend checks and my investment is completely paid off, it all profit from that point forward. If the market was to drive it down so be it, I most likely will put more money into the stock at these prices.
"Apple's products and brand have not lost their appeal, and older models have continued to sell"
This report says nothing about iPhone sales for this or last quarter, it just claims 6s models have exceeded inventory goals. It may well be that more buyers are saving $100 to get a 6 vs 6s than Apple anticipated.
But we don't really know that, its just a rumor from an unknown source.
But he already disputed the rumors/lies that China sales were in the tank. Remember he sent an email to Jim Kramer that China was doing fine?
"I get updates on our performance in China every day, including this
morning, and I can tell you that we have continued to experience strong
growth for our business in China through July and August,"
Look, I really like Apple and its products (I bought both the iPhone 6s and 6s Plus, use an iPad Air 2, own an Apple Watch), but I do think the iPhone 6s/6s Plus cycle is going to be a tough one for Apple. iPhone 6/6 Plus cycle was just a monster and while iPhone 6s/6s Plus brought a lot of very sweet technical innovations, they don't appear to be enough to drive growth.
I think we'll see a lot of goodies with iPhone 7 and we could very well see people who "pulled in" their upgrades to get the 6/6 Plus (effectively moving off of the "s" cycle and onto the "new number" cycle) upgrade to the 7, potentially helping iPhone return to growth during that cycle.
Apple's longer-term future is still probably very bright -- they have the best and the brightest working for them and management is very good -- but in the near term things might not be so rosy.
Lets see if you check off all the concerned troll points.
1. An Apple fan 2. Bought a lot of Apple product 3. Say that the current produce is not as good as previous product 4. Say that Apple has lost its innovation/ misses Steve
Well you got all four checked off. Congrats, concerned troll.
Yikes!
The current iPhone 6s/6s Plus are better than the prior gen product, but it's very hard to top the "we made them bigger" that drove so much market share gain/growth for Apple in fiscal 2015.
I did NOT say that Apple has lost its innovation and said absolutely nothing about Steve; I would argue Apple is more innovative than ever, something that's evident in the technical excellence of their products (hardware & software). In fact, you might recall that I just made a post defending Tim Cook after your very critical posts of the guy.
For what it is worth, a friend of mine is a sales man in a telecom shop, and he said to me the other day that the iPhone 6s and iPhone 6s+ did not sell as good this Xmas as the iPhone 6 and iPhone6+ did last Xmas. He is not allowed the give exact details but the difference is between 10 and 20%
This is probably the 15th time these supply chain rumors have come out since November. And each time the stock losses $10 billion to $30 billion in value.
Yet Tim Cook says absolutely NOTHING. The stock is down nearly $180 billion since these rumors have started. Yet Cook does nothing.
He giggles and buys back more stock. That's not doing "nothing".
Can someone give a rational explanation why Tim Cook isn't disputing these reports?
Read my other posting, Apple is in the quite period leading up to the quarterly announcements. He can not speak to these statement unless he gave guidance which the rumor would counter his guidance. The fact Apple did not put out a pre quarterly announcement, it tell me their Q4 numbers will be inline or above their guidance which is good. and you will have to wait until the quarterly announcement to get Q1 guidance
Can someone give a rational explanation why Tim Cook isn't disputing these reports?
Sure...have you considered that the reports might actually be accurate?
They've never been before and he'd not disputed specific false reports then either, and they've been endless YEARS of that sort of nonsense. That's (disputing every crap rumor that rolls along) a losing game that once started cannot be stopped.
You are far, far too hard on Tim Cook. The guy is doing the best job he can and frankly I don't know what you expect him to do.
Again, you are assuming these supply chain reports are wrong. Why do you completely discount the idea that they might be correct?
I don't think you should use the Tim Cook quote about supply chain checks as a way to immediately discount these reports. One particular data point from one supplier might not tell you the whole story, but there have been many data points from many different suppliers, and they all point to the same thing.
Anyway, Tim Cook's job is to run the business for the long-term, and I think he's done a good job so far of doing just that.
As an investor, you need to decide whether you believe in the company & its management to deliver you value over the long-term.
Too hard?
The stock is up a pathetic 2% since Sept2012. This is despite increasing revenue and profits by 30% last year.
I believe in Apple the company. I have ZERO faith in Tim Cook.
I won't sell my shares until Cook is fired and I can sell my shares for fair value.
Why do you have such little faith in Tim Cook? What business moves has he made that you think are bad/stupid?
You are far, far too hard on Tim Cook. The guy is doing the best job he can and frankly I don't know what you expect him to do.
Again, you are assuming these supply chain reports are wrong. Why do you completely discount the idea that they might be correct?
I don't think you should use the Tim Cook quote about supply chain checks as a way to immediately discount these reports. One particular data point from one supplier might not tell you the whole story, but there have been many data points from many different suppliers, and they all point to the same thing.
Anyway, Tim Cook's job is to run the business for the long-term, and I think he's done a good job so far of doing just that.
As an investor, you need to decide whether you believe in the company & its management to deliver you value over the long-term.
Too hard?
The stock is up a pathetic 2% since Sept2012. This is despite increasing revenue and profits by 30% last year.
I believe in Apple the company. I have ZERO faith in Tim Cook.
I won't sell my shares until Cook is fired and I can sell my shares for fair value.
So you don't trust a CEO who has overseen revenue increases of that level because analysts and traders are leading the share price where they want it? Why would he be bothered with your return on share price appreciation? They pay dividends, they are buying shares back at what you yourself say are below their real value.
Ive heard of circular arguments but you take the class prize.
Comments
I can see you're a long-time contributor to AI /s
and you're here to tell us that Apple's future doesn't look good. We've never hear that before ;=)
Look, I really like Apple and its products (I bought both the iPhone 6s and 6s Plus, use an iPad Air 2, own an Apple Watch), but I do think the iPhone 6s/6s Plus cycle is going to be a tough one for Apple. iPhone 6/6 Plus cycle was just a monster and while iPhone 6s/6s Plus brought a lot of very sweet technical innovations, they don't appear to be enough to drive growth.
I think we'll see a lot of goodies with iPhone 7 and we could very well see people who "pulled in" their upgrades to get the 6/6 Plus (effectively moving off of the "s" cycle and onto the "new number" cycle) upgrade to the 7, potentially helping iPhone return to growth during that cycle.
Apple's longer-term future is still probably very bright -- they have the best and the brightest working for them and management is very good -- but in the near term things might not be so rosy.
You are far, far too hard on Tim Cook. The guy is doing the best job he can and frankly I don't know what you expect him to do.
Again, you are assuming these supply chain reports are wrong. Why do you completely discount the idea that they might be correct?
I don't think you should use the Tim Cook quote about supply chain checks as a way to immediately discount these reports. One particular data point from one supplier might not tell you the whole story, but there have been many data points from many different suppliers, and they all point to the same thing.
Anyway, Tim Cook's job is to run the business for the long-term, and I think he's done a good job so far of doing just that.
As an investor, you need to decide whether you believe in the company & its management to deliver you value over the long-term.
Not to add fuel to your fire, you know Apple is now in the quite period, even if Cook wanted to say something he could not, unless the rumors were true and his guidance he gave was off a material amount then he would have to put out some pre-announcement. However, Cook gave no guidance on 2016 quarters so he can not speak out at this time. Thank the SEC about these quite period.
It does not matter what cook says, Samsung gave warning all last year and the analysis and others kept saying Samsung was going to do well. Did Samsung come out and correct those people and tell them their upside predictions were wrong, no nor do they have to say those were wrong since they were rumors of the up side not the down side. But the analysis upbeat rumors of Samsung pending success did not help its stock, it kept falling.
It does not matter if Cook or even Steve was still there the net results will be the same. Wall Street analysis believe 2016 is going to be a difficult year for the cell phone industry. Samsung has already warned of pending Doom so it getting tap onto Apple. The market is making money on shorting Apple and that is all that matters to them.
I work in the Supply Chain Field and I know how communications work with suppliers and I can present a number of scenarios where a supplier would be saying they are seeing a cut in forecast but OEM business is still doing well. Cook already told the everyone not to use supply chain to forecast Apple business but they keep doing it.
In this case the market is just helping Apple pull more shares off the market at a fast pace, which means dividends will increase and I get a bigger check ever quarter, 2 more years of these dividend checks and my investment is completely paid off, it all profit from that point forward. If the market was to drive it down so be it, I most likely will put more money into the stock at these prices.
This report says nothing about iPhone sales for this or last quarter, it just claims 6s models have exceeded inventory goals. It may well be that more buyers are saving $100 to get a 6 vs 6s than Apple anticipated.
But we don't really know that, its just a rumor from an unknown source.
The current iPhone 6s/6s Plus are better than the prior gen product, but it's very hard to top the "we made them bigger" that drove so much market share gain/growth for Apple in fiscal 2015.
I did NOT say that Apple has lost its innovation and said absolutely nothing about Steve; I would argue Apple is more innovative than ever, something that's evident in the technical excellence of their products (hardware & software). In fact, you might recall that I just made a post defending Tim Cook after your very critical posts of the guy.
Read my other posting, Apple is in the quite period leading up to the quarterly announcements. He can not speak to these statement unless he gave guidance which the rumor would counter his guidance. The fact Apple did not put out a pre quarterly announcement, it tell me their Q4 numbers will be inline or above their guidance which is good. and you will have to wait until the quarterly announcement to get Q1 guidance
They've never been before and he'd not disputed specific false reports then either, and they've been endless YEARS of that sort of nonsense. That's (disputing every crap rumor that rolls along) a losing game that once started cannot be stopped.
Ive heard of circular arguments but you take the class prize.