Real world iPhone 6s adoption data contradicts Apple supplier channel check rumors
The product mix of iPhone models in Apple's real world installed base of users shows smooth adoption of iPhone 6s models and no evidence of a decline in demand that would require unexpected production cuts. This publicly available data severely undercuts the supply chain rumors supporting a narrative of "Peak iPhone" and reactionary order slashing.
Source: Fiksu
Data reported by Boston-based mobile marketing firm Fiksu, which tracks usage analytics among the most popular 50 mobile apps including Facebook and Twitter (as noted by reader Jim Neil via Twitter), shows that iPhone 6s and 6s Plus have ramped up to account for more than 13 percent of the iPhone installed base within the first 100 days since their release.
That's less than the percentage attained by last year's iPhone 6 models at the same point (which had reached about 21 percent), but that's expected because the total installed base of iPhones this year is much greater. Over fiscal 2015, Apple sold over 231 million new iPhones, massively expanding the pool of iPhone users.
This year Apple's newest 6s models are selling next to last year's 6 models with a similar appearance at a $100 discount. However, the bulk of iPhones sold since the launch of iPhone 6s appear to be Apple's latest and newest model, as the growing adoption ratio of 6 and 6 Plus abruptly flattened out at the launch of iPhone 6s last fall. While the older 6/6 Plus models continued to sell, the increasing size of the installed base kept those earlier models' "percentage of all users" static.
Source: Fiksu
Since the 6s launch, the percentage of all iPhone users with a 6/6 Plus has actually gone down slightly, indicating that the increase in new 6s buyers is enough to obscure the smaller growth in new sales of last year's phone, even as the newest 6s/6s Plus models expanded their relative share by 13 percentage points.
There is zero indication that iPhone 6s models have tapered off or suddenly plunged; the data shows a smooth increase in sales since its launch.
As a percentage of the installed base, the iPhone 6s adoption ramp should be expected to be less than iPhone 6, due to the much larger size of today's installed base. However, the combined adoption of the new 6s and 6s Plus are consistently higher than the level seen in iPhone 5s two years (and 400 million iPhone sales) ago.
That indicates that as a premium priced model and a less obviously new "s" model version, the 6s family has incited more sales and switching than the earlier 5s model, which similarly competed against a $100 cheaper, previous generation of itself.
With the years of data Apple has on upgrade rates and switcher behaviors, this fails to support the idea that Apple was forced to dramatically shift its orders in response to slack demand for its new phone and instead indicates that Apple's 6s launch has been nothing but typical, and inline with Apple's previous performance.
On the other hand, iPhone 6 and 6s models combined have now reached about 55 percent of the iPhone installed base, essentially identical to the the proportion of users who had upgraded to either an iPhone 6 or 5s/5c model at this same point a year ago. That means that upgrade cycles have remained about the same despite the huge influx of new iPhone users, a metric that highlights the consistent cash machine tied to Apple's annual refresh cycle.
In stark contrast to the smooth annual upgrades among iPhone users, Fiksu's data on the Android installed base shows a much more chaotic and contentious rollout of flagship models, despite being dominated by one company. It also highlights the shrinking ratio of relevance of Samsung's primary premium flagship model among users.
Source: Fiksu
While the Galaxy 3 accounted for almost 19 percent of Android's installed base at the beginning of 2014 (a year and a half after it launched) in Fiksu's data, Samsung's Galaxy S4 successor only managed to grab just over 12 percent over the next year, and its Galaxy S5 hasn't yet reached 9 percent representation.
This indicates that Samsung's sales are much less cyclical than iPhones. Android users also appear be sticking with older models for much longer (or are more likely to buy older models), as usage data shows the adoption rate of the now three and a half year old Galaxy S3 remains currently tied with the S4 and S5.
Apple's ability to entice users to upgrade--and to choose its newest, most expensive models they do--is a primary reason why it now accounts for 94 percent of mobile industry profits.
Source: Fiksu
Data reported by Boston-based mobile marketing firm Fiksu, which tracks usage analytics among the most popular 50 mobile apps including Facebook and Twitter (as noted by reader Jim Neil via Twitter), shows that iPhone 6s and 6s Plus have ramped up to account for more than 13 percent of the iPhone installed base within the first 100 days since their release.
That's less than the percentage attained by last year's iPhone 6 models at the same point (which had reached about 21 percent), but that's expected because the total installed base of iPhones this year is much greater. Over fiscal 2015, Apple sold over 231 million new iPhones, massively expanding the pool of iPhone users.
This year Apple's newest 6s models are selling next to last year's 6 models with a similar appearance at a $100 discount. However, the bulk of iPhones sold since the launch of iPhone 6s appear to be Apple's latest and newest model, as the growing adoption ratio of 6 and 6 Plus abruptly flattened out at the launch of iPhone 6s last fall. While the older 6/6 Plus models continued to sell, the increasing size of the installed base kept those earlier models' "percentage of all users" static.
Source: Fiksu
Since the 6s launch, the percentage of all iPhone users with a 6/6 Plus has actually gone down slightly, indicating that the increase in new 6s buyers is enough to obscure the smaller growth in new sales of last year's phone, even as the newest 6s/6s Plus models expanded their relative share by 13 percentage points.
There is zero indication that iPhone 6s models have tapered off or suddenly plunged; the data shows a smooth increase in sales since its launch.
As a percentage of the installed base, the iPhone 6s adoption ramp should be expected to be less than iPhone 6, due to the much larger size of today's installed base. However, the combined adoption of the new 6s and 6s Plus are consistently higher than the level seen in iPhone 5s two years (and 400 million iPhone sales) ago.
That indicates that as a premium priced model and a less obviously new "s" model version, the 6s family has incited more sales and switching than the earlier 5s model, which similarly competed against a $100 cheaper, previous generation of itself.
With the years of data Apple has on upgrade rates and switcher behaviors, this fails to support the idea that Apple was forced to dramatically shift its orders in response to slack demand for its new phone and instead indicates that Apple's 6s launch has been nothing but typical, and inline with Apple's previous performance.
On the other hand, iPhone 6 and 6s models combined have now reached about 55 percent of the iPhone installed base, essentially identical to the the proportion of users who had upgraded to either an iPhone 6 or 5s/5c model at this same point a year ago. That means that upgrade cycles have remained about the same despite the huge influx of new iPhone users, a metric that highlights the consistent cash machine tied to Apple's annual refresh cycle.
Android has slower adoption patterns
In stark contrast to the smooth annual upgrades among iPhone users, Fiksu's data on the Android installed base shows a much more chaotic and contentious rollout of flagship models, despite being dominated by one company. It also highlights the shrinking ratio of relevance of Samsung's primary premium flagship model among users.
Source: Fiksu
While the Galaxy 3 accounted for almost 19 percent of Android's installed base at the beginning of 2014 (a year and a half after it launched) in Fiksu's data, Samsung's Galaxy S4 successor only managed to grab just over 12 percent over the next year, and its Galaxy S5 hasn't yet reached 9 percent representation.
This indicates that Samsung's sales are much less cyclical than iPhones. Android users also appear be sticking with older models for much longer (or are more likely to buy older models), as usage data shows the adoption rate of the now three and a half year old Galaxy S3 remains currently tied with the S4 and S5.
Apple's ability to entice users to upgrade--and to choose its newest, most expensive models they do--is a primary reason why it now accounts for 94 percent of mobile industry profits.
Comments
Guys, we are looking a bit short this month. Any Ideas how we can get our profits up? It is the end of our quarter and your bonus payments depend on it.
All the Analyst come ou with the same answer.
"Short Apple. Start a rumour about supply chain problems" said one
"Nah! We did that last month."
"Guys, go get a rumour about suppliers cutting production and laying off workers. Short Apple down to 99$."
No one moved.
"Well, what are you waiting for? Paint to dry?"
I think its time for people just to admit that iPhone units can't go up forever. We are at or very near peak iPhone. At max we have another 3-5 year of iPhone growth, unless Apple sells phones for a much lower price point. So Apple really has only 2 choices if it wants to keep growing revenue. Either they need to lower the price of iPhones or they need to sell more services or do both.
Yes all the stocks are down about 5% this week. But Apple was also down 22% the last few months in 2016. If Apple was still at $130 and it dropped to $123 that would not be too bad. But it has been under performing the entire market since Feb2015.
Lack of evidence? The evidence is piling up. There are a ton of supply chain reports and weak earnings by iPhone suppliers. Did we even have one single iPhone supplier who showed the strong earnings yet?
There is just way too much smoke for their not to be a fire. But this fire is temporary. Get your wallets ready for $80 per share and buy up big time. Once the dust settles and iPhone 7 comes out we will see 10% sales growth again and $125 stock price. IMO, that is the easiest way to make 50% return in less than a year.
I'm not saying you're an unethical manipulator, but you don't have any significant history in AI and you're encouraging us to sell. If you're not a manipulator, at the very least your behavior is consistent with being one.
What are they waiting for?
Are over 100,000,000 current iPhone users waiting for a 4 inch phone? I don't get it.
It would be nice if the author merely talked about the data instead of imposing a view on us that the data doesn't really support.
Love that graph though. Very attractive.
I would love to see an animated version of this going all the way back to 2007 with the rise and fall of all the phones in the 100% mix. It would be awesome to watch.
Apple could have asked for a 100 million iPhones in the Holiday quarter and got them. Then scaled back for post holiday and only ordered 50 million more. That's a 50% drop but it does not represent any factual data that sales have dropped year over year, if even the March quarter orders are smaller.
Last year the iPhone 6 Plus was severely constrained, which would mean the amount of orders placed by Apple with their suppliers would've remained consistent for a longer period until demand was met. That didn't happen this year. Apple had enough of all models to allow immediate shipment.
Looking only on the surface for signs is moronic. The truth is hidden much deeper especially when dealing with supply chain logistics from suppliers that are forced to sign NDAs. All the reports about suppliers dropping YoY could simply be that Apple switched suppliers or cut orders from them after adding another supplier.
On an unrelated note, look at what happened to Fitbit this week - down over 25%. Damn. Maybe they should've announce plans to release no new products.
Can't gamble in the Casino without convincing the mark to bring his life savings.
*Deadbeat
I'm assuming there is a similar term for stockholders sitting on their long term holdings, rather than playing in the Casino.