Make enough predictions and one of them will be correct every so often.
I don't say they are right, what I said is that there's a fair possibility they are right, my guess is the same as yours, even more I will make a post after this explaining why I think they are wrong, but in 2012-2013 I did the same and feel totally embarrassed when my "post of the week" winning post in an Apple related blog here in Spain was totally wrong and "those clowns" were right.
Make enough predictions and one of them will be correct every so often.
I don't say they are right, what I said is that there's a fair possibility they are right, my guess is the same as yours, even more I will make a post after this explaining why I think they are wrong, but in 2012-2013 I did the same and feel totally embarrassed when my "post of the week" winning post in an Apple related blog here in Spain was totally wrong and "those clowns" were right.
I'm just amazed that they can manipulate billions of dollars worth of stock with their "guesses"
I hate these assholes. I wish Tim Cook would just come out and shut these fucers up.
If you are long AAPL you should be thankful to Piper Jaffray. This note to customers lowering the March and June quarters expectations will make it easier for Apple to beat. The fact that he maintains his high rating and price target is a vote of confidence that tells his clients to Buy! Buy! Buy!
Hello. It's my broker, Gene Munster. What? Then buy, buy, buy! Oh, everyone's buying? Then sell, sell, sell!"
Gene Munster probably is wrong, this are my reasons: Since launch to the end of the holiday season 2015 had one week less, the first one after the launch, its accountable in the FQ4 but it is included in the production plan for the end of the year. Given that the weekend sales extended after the end of the quarter, some part of that sales must be accountable for first quarter 2016.
So if Apple ordered 90 million units of the 6s with a week less to sell, assuming the device has sold as much as the 6, Apple must have in its hands as much as 17 million units. Last year march quarter sales where 61 million, assuming 90% where iPhone 6 / 6 Plus, we can assume the where some units left in the channel and subtract the 17 million and you have roughly that 30% cut in production with the same sales figures. Add to that the 6 right now is a much more attractive product than ever have Apple got for a second year device, its the first year a second year device has a 64GB capacity option and is a good guess that its selling better than any previous second year one, and you have better sales than last FY in both quarters.
I hate these assholes. I wish Tim Cook would just come out and shut these fucers up.
Actually, Tim Cook is doing his job. The analysts are doing their job. The rumor mill is doing their job. It's just that they aren't all doing it for your personal gain.
I don't say they are right, what I said is that there's a fair possibility they are right, my guess is the same as yours, even more I will make a post after this explaining why I think they are wrong, but in 2012-2013 I did the same and feel totally embarrassed when my "post of the week" winning post in an Apple related blog here in Spain was totally wrong and "those clowns" were right.
I'm just amazed that they can manipulate billions of dollars worth of stock with their "guesses"
A similar problem happened in the mid 80's when Jobs wanted Apple to focus all its efforts on the Mac but the board objected, claiming that the Apple II was their bread n butter.
I believe Apple should have not offered any of their other iPhones except for the iPhone 6S. People may have not understood the benefits of the 6S and chose the 6. Offering both causes confusion. Apple should've made it clear that the 6S with its 3D Touch is how it's going to be from now on
I hate these assholes. I wish Tim Cook would just come out and shut these fucers up.
If you are long AAPL you should be thankful to Piper Jaffray. This note to customers lowering the March and June quarters expectations will make it easier for Apple to beat. The fact that he maintains his high rating and price target is a vote of confidence that tells his clients to Buy! Buy! Buy!
No, they'll just call it no big deal because the bar was set so low.
We're all amazed at how these analysts manage to keep their jobs when their predictions are almost always miles away from reality - however - if you were to look at what's happening this month - customers and people who take advice from Morgan Stanley would have done very well by selling their shares or even shorting the stock when they first broke the news/rumor of the reduction in parts orders. Even if that data point means nothing to Apples business because of all the reasons we've been suggesting over the past few weeks - it did in fact mean something to Wall Street. The stock price dropped ok the report, and then it dropped further as other analysts and investment firms repeated the rumors. Morgan Stanley customers aren't going to care that the report was wrong - because the advice wasn't - at least in the short term. If they took the sell advice - and shorted the stock - they've done quite well this month.
Its sad that this kind of stock price manipulation is possible. Has anyone considered what might happen if Tim Cook took the company private? /s
Anyhow - I'm not an analyst - but I can't really be any more wrong than the actual analysts, so I'm going to go on record with my expectations: I don't see the stock going much lower. I think that the players responsible for the manipulation of taken their profit in the drop and have set themselves up to profit on a run. I see the stock price starting to rise no later than 4 days before earnings are announced and that they will continue to rise to new highs. I think share prices will hit $150 by June 1st - and remain relatively stable there until the iPhone 7 is released at which time I think the manipulators will once again step up their campaign of FUD and start dragging the price back down.
Just my guess. I'm currently long in Apple holding 700 actual shares of Apple and leveraging 3300 more shares via call options expiring in April and July (exercise prices at 100 and 110).
i wish I had access to another $100k right now. I'd put it all into actual shares of AAPL. At a P/E ratio of 7 (or whatever it currently is), it's extremely undervalued. Even at a ratio of 11, it would be less than its peers - but at 7, it's a steal!
i expect Apple to meet the guidance they published for this quarter. Issue guidance for March that is conservative, but still shows YoY growth. Reiterate that people should not rely on supply chain data. Announce the number of shares that have been repurchased and the expansion of the buyback program.
The current stock price seems to be based on worst case scenarios. There are so many positive catalysts rumoured to be waiting in the wings - and if any of them actually prove to be true, the stock should respond very favourably - such as a 4" phone in April, an early release of the iPhone 7, an increase in the dividend, etc, etc
i don't know about sog35 and the rest of you but I'm expecting great things to happen over the next 6 months!
I don't say they are right, what I said is that there's a fair possibility they are right, my guess is the same as yours, even more I will make a post after this explaining why I think they are wrong, but in 2012-2013 I did the same and feel totally embarrassed when my "post of the week" winning post in an Apple related blog here in Spain was totally wrong and "those clowns" were right.
I'm just amazed that they can manipulate billions of dollars worth of stock with their "guesses"
But let me say you something, and sorry for the second answer, most analyst are speaking of a speed bump, and only slightly reducing its target prices, that mostly are well above what it is right now. Anybody that panicked and sell a value stock with a good dividend yield in current financial environment, and with its average target price far higher and a cash hoard that maybe, one day can be disposed like MSFT did last decade in the form of a huge one time dividend, is an idiot. Period, you got a value stock, even in the worst case scenario the cash amount will keep climbing and is from a financial standpoint the healthiest company in the world by miles. An people sale scared, they deserve to lose their money. Sorry to the people that can feel offended but is the truth.
Why would you build a headquarter larger than Pentagon to house a few engineers working on the next iPhone 7...?
I wasn't aware that only a few engineers are working on the next iPhone 7. If that is true, then there really is no other conceivable reason that Apple is building a new headquarters! You MUST be correct, given that only a few engineers are working on the next iPhone 7!!
It would be pretty hilarious if Apple came out at the earnings call and still met expectations.
It seems clear that this is a less than amazing quarter, but there's definitely still a chance that it was solid.
If Apple gives guidance every 3 months and report actual sales what is the purpose of the around the clock guesses by analyst. I heard one analyst was judging sales by how often the iPhone 6s was mentioned on Twitter. I saw another analyst providing estimates 2 years out. Seriously.........Apple's market cap was 700B 3 years ago and PE was 6. If an analyst would have said in 2012 that by Jan 2016 Apple would be paying 2% dividend, have grown earnings by 50%, created Apple Watch, Apple Pay, instituted largest buyback in history, and have 200b in cash but only be worth $560b, it would have been inconceivable.
Comments
Hello. It's my broker, Gene Munster. What? Then buy, buy, buy! Oh, everyone's buying? Then sell, sell, sell!"
Maybe he doesn't have to time to take responsibility for your decisions.
So if Apple ordered 90 million units of the 6s with a week less to sell, assuming the device has sold as much as the 6, Apple must have in its hands as much as 17 million units. Last year march quarter sales where 61 million, assuming 90% where iPhone 6 / 6 Plus, we can assume the where some units left in the channel and subtract the 17 million and you have roughly that 30% cut in production with the same sales figures. Add to that the 6 right now is a much more attractive product than ever have Apple got for a second year device, its the first year a second year device has a 64GB capacity option and is a good guess that its selling better than any previous second year one, and you have better sales than last FY in both quarters.
The analysts are doing their job.
The rumor mill is doing their job.
It's just that they aren't all doing it for your personal gain.
I believe Apple should have not offered any of their other iPhones except for the iPhone 6S. People may have not understood the benefits of the 6S and chose the 6. Offering both causes confusion. Apple should've made it clear that the 6S with its 3D Touch is how it's going to be from now on
Its sad that this kind of stock price manipulation is possible. Has anyone considered what might happen if Tim Cook took the company private? /s
Anyhow - I'm not an analyst - but I can't really be any more wrong than the actual analysts, so I'm going to go on record with my expectations: I don't see the stock going much lower. I think that the players responsible for the manipulation of taken their profit in the drop and have set themselves up to profit on a run. I see the stock price starting to rise no later than 4 days before earnings are announced and that they will continue to rise to new highs. I think share prices will hit $150 by June 1st - and remain relatively stable there until the iPhone 7 is released at which time I think the manipulators will once again step up their campaign of FUD and start dragging the price back down.
Just my guess. I'm currently long in Apple holding 700 actual shares of Apple and leveraging 3300 more shares via call options expiring in April and July (exercise prices at 100 and 110).
i wish I had access to another $100k right now. I'd put it all into actual shares of AAPL. At a P/E ratio of 7 (or whatever it currently is), it's extremely undervalued. Even at a ratio of 11, it would be less than its peers - but at 7, it's a steal!
i expect Apple to meet the guidance they published for this quarter. Issue guidance for March that is conservative, but still shows YoY growth. Reiterate that people should not rely on supply chain data. Announce the number of shares that have been repurchased and the expansion of the buyback program.
The current stock price seems to be based on worst case scenarios. There are so many positive catalysts rumoured to be waiting in the wings - and if any of them actually prove to be true, the stock should respond very favourably - such as a 4" phone in April, an early release of the iPhone 7, an increase in the dividend, etc, etc
i don't know about sog35 and the rest of you but I'm expecting great things to happen over the next 6 months!