I read the Bloomberg report about an hour BEFORE reading DED's article. I am wondering in what exact realm of reality was DED in when he wrote this glowing report about TSMC when the Bloomberg report was referenced. The Bloomberg report is an extremely dire report that offers very little light. Even though TSMC had a profit of NT$72.8 billion, which beat the NT$68.5 billion projected by 26 analysts, Bloomberg made it clear the fourth-quarter net income fell 9%. Bloomberg did not give nearly an inch of good news. Unless there was another version of this story, I am surprised how DED was able to find sweet lemonade from the lemons dished out by Tim Culpin of Bloomberg! And, even though TSMC supplies chips to other companies, ONLY Apple is the cause of TSMC's weakness according to Bloomberg.
DED is a democrat, highly skilled in ignoring the facts and delivering the party line no matter how much credibility gets trashed. I find it shocking that so many lap up his nonsense.
Are you fracking serious, squabbling inside the democratic party for decades is what kept it out of power for a most of the 1952-1992 period, so you fracking jest bud.
It's Clinton, pulling a move akin to new labor in Britain that got the democrats to unite themselves and stop backstabbing each other.
Even then, democrats, rarely are rarely single issue voters like GOP voters (abortion, anti-gays, whatever); they have a much broader motivation for voting.
It's only recently with the rise of tea turds in the GOP that they have "dissented" in large numbers. The "estasblishment" of the GOP those turds are squabbling with emerged in the 1980s when Reagans's neo-cons kicked most of the moderate republicans to the curb.
Phones, tablets, watches (or gadgets in whatever form factor) are consumables. You can argue whether phones are discretionary anymore (I certainly don't consider my phone discretionary). They are continuously replaced in fairly steady cycles although they may evolve and change form factor.
Markets will grow VERY fast as long as you have relatively unexplored markets (which we still do - think Africa, India, Asia etc).
I don't consider my iPhone a consumable. Products should last at least 10 years. It's a huge waste to recycle products when you don't have to and companies should strive to better products that are easily upgradable and serviceable. At least if they want to keep an environment friendly image.
Economic thinking is per definition growth based and is one of the biggest mistakes ever; growth will always end, and that moment is 'peak'.
As a centre leftist let me tell you that's nonsense. Growth depends on human ingenuity. Peak is dependent on technology.
All this report means is that analysts were almost certainly wrong with their supply chain analysis and predictions that Apple iPhone sales would be weak. But there is still a small chance that sales will be down according to several less-than-credible supply chain analysts.
Guess which one most Wall Street investors will make their bets with?
DED is as reliable as the anti-Apple crew on the other side. This is the second time he has "refuted" claims about Apples guidance with reference to the last Q. It's the guidance this quarter that matters.
According to a report by Focus Taiwan, TSMC reported NT$306.57 billion ($9.15 billion US) in net profit for 2015, a 16.2 percent annual increase and a record high for the firm. Its consolidated sales rose 10.6 percent to NT$843.497 billion ($25.2 billion US), also a new record. About $3.7 billion of TSMC's revenue comes from Apple.
For the December quarter, TSMC exceeded analysts' average estimates of NT$68.5 billion to reach NT$72.8 billion ($2.2 billion US) in net income, according to a report by Tim Culpan of Bloomberg.
blather
How incredibly misleading! The following is copied directly from TSMC's Q42015 announcement, dated 2016/01/14:
" Year-over-year, fourth quarter revenue decreased 8.5% while net income and diluted EPS both decreased 8.9%. Compared to third quarter 2015, fourth quarter results represent a 4.2% decrease in revenue, and a 3.3% decrease in net income. All figures were prepared in accordance with TIFRS on a consolidated basis.
In US dollars, fourth quarter revenue was $6.24 billion, which decreased 6.4% from previous quarter and decreased 13.7% year-over-year."
This is a massive deceleration at EOY. You'd never know it from reading this pumper article. Then from their earnings transcript, some guidance:
"For our first quarter 2016, this quarter, we see a reduction of high-end smartphone demand. On the other hand, demand for smartphones in China
and other emerging markets show signs of recovery, with an upward momentum. We thus forecast a mild revenue decline of minus 1.3% to minus
2.7% quarter to quarter for the first quarter 2016."
So there will be a decline on top of a fairly massive decline. In addition, several more suppliers posted bad results and guidance yesterday, including Analog Devices.
I guess you are referring to peak-cars, peak-toys or peak-fridges... Demand for consumables is not finite like natural resources... consumable demand is replacing itself every year!
No way that's true. I mean, I'm writing this on my Intel Celeron 333Mhz powered PC, that I keep glued together with sticky tape, next to a fire extinguisher. Because why would I buy a computer, when I already have one!
/s
Seriously people, for years, the iPhone has "peaked" and then it manages to "peak" again. It's a nonsense statement. The demand recycles itself every so years and brings in new people too. People who don't own a smartphone yet but sport a feature phone (yes, there's quite a few of those), people from other platforms, children growing up, existing customers purchasing new models. Let's also not forget companies getting their employees phones; I've personally ended up with two iPhones on more than a few occasions that way lol
According to a report by Focus Taiwan, TSMC reported NT$306.57 billion ($9.15 billion US) in net profit for 2015, a 16.2 percent annual increase and a record high for the firm. Its consolidated sales rose 10.6 percent to NT$843.497 billion ($25.2 billion US), also a new record. About $3.7 billion of TSMC's revenue comes from Apple.
For the December quarter, TSMC exceeded analysts' average estimates of NT$68.5 billion to reach NT$72.8 billion ($2.2 billion US) in net income, according to a report by Tim Culpan of Bloomberg.
blather
How incredibly misleading! The following is copied directly from TSMC's Q42015 announcement, dated 2016/01/14:
" Year-over-year, fourth quarter revenue decreased 8.5% while net income and diluted EPS both decreased 8.9%. Compared to third quarter 2015, fourth quarter results represent a 4.2% decrease in revenue, and a 3.3% decrease in net income. All figures were prepared in accordance with TIFRS on a consolidated basis.
In US dollars, fourth quarter revenue was $6.24 billion, which decreased 6.4% from previous quarter and decreased 13.7% year-over-year."
This is a massive deceleration at EOY. You'd never know it from reading this pumper article. Then from their earnings transcript, some guidance:
"For our first quarter 2016, this quarter, we see a reduction of high-end smartphone demand. On the other hand, demand for smartphones in China
and other emerging markets show signs of recovery, with an upward momentum. We thus forecast a mild revenue decline of minus 1.3% to minus
2.7% quarter to quarter for the first quarter 2016."
So there will be a decline on top of a fairly massive decline. In addition, several more suppliers posted bad results and guidance yesterday, including Analog Devices.
Welcome to the world viewed through DEDs Apple-tinted glasses.
The real story in all this supply chain nonsense is this: The 6s/6sP is selling less relative to 6/6P, and they may have to adjust the production mix, but the combined pair of 6/6P/6s/6sP will almost certainly outperform total sales of last year (as Tim Cook said it would...). Just look at the weekly Fiksu stats and that is the exact picture it paints. 2016 will be a stellar year for Apple.
God now even John Gruber used the phrase "peak iPhone" on his latest podcast. Sigh. I hate that phrase and people have been saying it for the past 4 years. If your theory is correct maybe that's how Apple needs to frame things. That's why I think Cook should focus more on install base rather than specific sales figures. But if revenue and ASPs are down from the same quarter a year ago that probably won't matter.
Read Apple's proxy Statement, if you Own Apple you would have had one sent to you and trust me, Apple blows the doors off 2014's YOY sales/revenues as well as 2014 4th quarter YOY revenues/sales....The short's that are pushing share price down will be gone once Tim Cook/Apple reports on 26th and watch Share price jump back up to idk...$120s maybe $130s by time 3rd quarter rolls around which would be in due time for new iPhone7 debut
Comments
It's Clinton, pulling a move akin to new labor in Britain that got the democrats to unite themselves and stop backstabbing each other.
Even then, democrats, rarely are rarely single issue voters like GOP voters (abortion, anti-gays, whatever); they have a much broader motivation for voting.
It's only recently with the rise of tea turds in the GOP that they have "dissented" in large numbers. The "estasblishment" of the GOP those turds are squabbling with emerged in the 1980s when Reagans's neo-cons kicked most of the moderate republicans to the curb.
BTW, Keep your revionist crap to yourself.
DED is as reliable as the anti-Apple crew on the other side. This is the second time he has "refuted" claims about Apples guidance with reference to the last Q. It's the guidance this quarter that matters.
" Year-over-year, fourth quarter revenue decreased 8.5% while net income and diluted EPS both decreased 8.9%. Compared to third quarter 2015, fourth quarter results represent a 4.2% decrease in revenue, and a 3.3% decrease in net income. All figures were prepared in accordance with TIFRS on a consolidated basis. In US dollars, fourth quarter revenue was $6.24 billion, which decreased 6.4% from previous quarter and decreased 13.7% year-over-year."
This is a massive deceleration at EOY. You'd never know it from reading this pumper article. Then from their earnings transcript, some guidance:
"For our first quarter 2016, this quarter, we see a reduction of high-end smartphone demand. On the other hand, demand for smartphones in China and other emerging markets show signs of recovery, with an upward momentum. We thus forecast a mild revenue decline of minus 1.3% to minus 2.7% quarter to quarter for the first quarter 2016."
So there will be a decline on top of a fairly massive decline. In addition, several more suppliers posted bad results and guidance yesterday, including Analog Devices.
/s
Seriously people, for years, the iPhone has "peaked" and then it manages to "peak" again. It's a nonsense statement. The demand recycles itself every so years and brings in new people too. People who don't own a smartphone yet but sport a feature phone (yes, there's quite a few of those), people from other platforms, children growing up, existing customers purchasing new models. Let's also not forget companies getting their employees phones; I've personally ended up with two iPhones on more than a few occasions that way lol