Wall Street expects $76.5B in revenue from Apple in record breaking holiday quarter

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Comments

  • Reply 41 of 64
    jfc1138 said:
    williamh said:
    I don't think the discounts all came out of Target's hide. (And Staples, Best Buy, etc.)  The wholesale pricing that those stores get isn't THAT much lower than the retail price!  Besides, the store should expect Apple to pitch in to promote Apple products (and Apple does.)
    "I don't think..."

    and that's anecdote/speculation then. 

    What the store "should" expect and what actually occurs are two different matters. And given the secrecy with which any commercial entity treats it business not likely to be revealed anytime soon, certainly not with enough certainty to warrant conclusions about a corporation's future. (IMHO, of course).
    OMG, speculation on a discussion board about rumors.  Here you come to the rescue with the facts.  I know for a fact that manufacturers support retailers by paying for ad space, product placement, and all sorts of selling expenses.  You do know that grocery stores don't pay for coupons, right?  At one time, Apple even paid to place fanboys in stores to push products (I know this because I was one of them.)  

    Do I know that Apple supported the retailers this time for a fact. No.  But I do have a sufficient understanding of Apple's costs and their margins to know that they are not giving the reseller over 35%.  And in fact, I had accounts with major electronics distributors so I had a pretty good understanding of what some of the margins were. All the money was in cables and other crap.  Stores sell computers (and tablets, etc.) so they can also sell you an extended warranty and accessories.  

    So what I consider a reasonably informed opinion isn't enough to warrant conclusions about sales?  Do you think the products are discounted even as they're simply flying of the shelf? Unfair question, you don't know anything so you can't answer.
    edited January 2016
  • Reply 42 of 64

    Expecting earnings per share of $3.23,  up from $3.06 a year ago. 

    Total revenue is expected to be $76.6 billion, up less than 3% from $74.6 billion a year ago. 

    Analysts estimate Apple sold 75 million units to bring in $51.3 billion. 

    For next quarter, analysts forecast total sales of $55.6 billion and EPS of $2.22, which would be 4% less revenue than Apple had in the same quarter last year -- the first time revenue declined since 2003. 

  • Reply 43 of 64
    I have one request. I'm convinced the legendary Ming-Chi Kuo does not exist. He's a convenient creation by the Business Insider to spew FUD. The AppleInsider has no issues picking-up these articles and treating this mythical character as a real human being, repeating how often he is correct. So, his latest scare is that Apple will guide 43 million for the March quarter. Not even the biggest bear predicts this. If Apple guides anywhere North of 55 million, I vote words like "the best Apple analyst" should forever be stricken by the AppleInsider when this South Park character is mentioned.
    You mean this real actual person, Ming-Chi Kuo?

    http://www.cultofmac.com/273923/ming-chi-kuo/

    His record is fairly solid, check out the linked article above from cultofmac. He does better than most in my opinion. He clearly has some decent sources for information.

    I can't think of a single person other than Mark Gurman who consistently make as many accurate or "close enough" predictions about Apple.

    There is a reason he consistently gets press.

    Gene Munster on the other hand, that guy is the polar opposite of the two mentioned above. Why any website would ever mention Gene is beyond me.
  • Reply 44 of 64
    sog35 said:
    williamh said:
    Here you come to the rescue with the facts.  I know for a fact that manufacturers support retailers by paying for ad space, product placement, and all sorts of selling expenses.  You do know that grocery stores don't pay for coupons, right?  At one time, Apple even paid to place fanboys in stores to push products (I know this because I was one of them.)  Do I know that Apple did so this time for a fact. No.  But I do have a sufficient understanding of Apple's costs and their margins to know that they are not giving the reseller over 35%.
    No. You are spewing BS.  You are comparing Apple which sells the hottest devices on the planet to a company selling cereal in the supermarket.

    Give me a break. You have absolutely ZERO proof that Apple was taking a hit from those promotions.

    What facts do I have?  The fact that Apple guided to 40% gross margin which is HIGHER than last quarter. If Apple was taking hits on discounting iPad/iPhone/Watch/Mac no way would their gross margin be higher than the previous quarter.

    Its a know fact that stores like Walmart/Bestbuy/Target sometimes sell Apple products at a loss to attract customers into the stores.
    We'll know soon enough, won't we?  Stores do sometimes sell a product at a loss to attract customers. The facts we have are the guidance Apple gave several months ago, which itself was merely a prediction. Pretty thin bunch of facts.

    Retailers can have all sorts of reasons to discount a product, including selling a high enough volume to get a bigger price break themselves or just getting people in the store. (as you said.)  In this case, I was looking at products that were readily available even at the discounted price. I am very happy with my Apple Watch, but it isn't exactly the hottest device on the planet.  For 30% off I had my pick. I could have bought 10.  Is that the hottest device on the planet?  Who should I believe, you or my own eyes? (Thanks Groucho).  If the goal was to get people in the store, did those people come on the basis of a cheaper Apple watch and then not buy one?  
  • Reply 45 of 64
    jfc1138jfc1138 Posts: 3,090member
    So you see that 30% reducing Apple margins by what amount, specifically?


    edited January 2016
  • Reply 46 of 64
    techlover said:
    I have one request. I'm convinced the legendary Ming-Chi Kuo does not exist. He's a convenient creation by the Business Insider to spew FUD. The AppleInsider has no issues picking-up these articles and treating this mythical character as a real human being, repeating how often he is correct. So, his latest scare is that Apple will guide 43 million for the March quarter. Not even the biggest bear predicts this. If Apple guides anywhere North of 55 million, I vote words like "the best Apple analyst" should forever be stricken by the AppleInsider when this South Park character is mentioned.
    You mean this real actual person, Ming-Chi Kuo?

    http://www.cultofmac.com/273923/ming-chi-kuo/

    His record is fairly solid, check out the linked article above from cultofmac. He does better than most in my opinion. He clearly has some decent sources for information.

    I can't think of a single person other than Mark Gurman who consistently make as many accurate or "close enough" predictions about Apple.

    There is a reason he consistently gets press.

    Gene Munster on the other hand, that guy is the polar opposite of the two mentioned above. Why any website would ever mention Gene is beyond me.

    If I showed you a picture of Santa Claus, does that mean he's real too?    We'll see what Apple guides and then you can judge your hero.
  • Reply 47 of 64
    You guys don't like informed opinion that doesn't support your narrative yet you don't provide any facts to buttress your arguments.  

    Let's try some:  http://www.bloomberg.com/bw/articles/2013-09-13/how-wal-marts-iphone-discount-defeated-apples-price-controls

    Bloomberg suggests Apple sells its products to resellers for about 5% under retail.  Further, they say that Apple pays marketing money in exchange for retailers sticking to Apple's MSRPs.  Ok, Bloomberg is speculating a bit here, but still they're a more reliable source than any of you.  If Bloomberg is anywhere near correct, the stores were not absorbing a 30% discount, nor were they putting at risk the additional compensation Apple typically (according to Bloomberg) would provide.
    gatorguy
  • Reply 48 of 64
    josujosu Posts: 217member
    techlover said:
    I have one request. I'm convinced the legendary Ming-Chi Kuo does not exist. He's a convenient creation by the Business Insider to spew FUD. The AppleInsider has no issues picking-up these articles and treating this mythical character as a real human being, repeating how often he is correct. So, his latest scare is that Apple will guide 43 million for the March quarter. Not even the biggest bear predicts this. If Apple guides anywhere North of 55 million, I vote words like "the best Apple analyst" should forever be stricken by the AppleInsider when this South Park character is mentioned.
    You mean this real actual person, Ming-Chi Kuo?

    http://www.cultofmac.com/273923/ming-chi-kuo/

    His record is fairly solid, check out the linked article above from cultofmac. He does better than most in my opinion. He clearly has some decent sources for information.

    I can't think of a single person other than Mark Gurman who consistently make as many accurate or "close enough" predictions about Apple.

    There is a reason he consistently gets press.

    Gene Munster on the other hand, that guy is the polar opposite of the two mentioned above. Why any website would ever mention Gene is beyond me.
    Ming-Chi-Kuo is accurate in product launches as cult of mac shows in the article, but in sales forecasts is not that accurate. In 2013 he predicted the first week-end sales of the 5s at 6 to 8 million, but pointing that he thought they will be nearer to 6 than 8, the sales where 9 million. Last year his forecast for Q3 where wrong in iPhone units and in iPad units by far, overestimated iPhone sales and underestimated iPad sales by big numbers.

    The sales forecast for Q2 of iPhones sales he has made seems too low to me, the production cut supposedly is of 30% given to excess inventory, if the sales are in the 43 million range the cut must be much bigger related to the march quarter of last year, given that if is at least, say, ten million in the channel, and last year were sold 61 million, the production cut must have been in the 50% range.
  • Reply 49 of 64
    techlover said:
    You mean this real actual person, Ming-Chi Kuo?

    http://www.cultofmac.com/273923/ming-chi-kuo/

    His record is fairly solid, check out the linked article above from cultofmac. He does better than most in my opinion. He clearly has some decent sources for information.

    I can't think of a single person other than Mark Gurman who consistently make as many accurate or "close enough" predictions about Apple.

    There is a reason he consistently gets press.

    Gene Munster on the other hand, that guy is the polar opposite of the two mentioned above. Why any website would ever mention Gene is beyond me.

    If I showed you a picture of Santa Claus, does that mean he's real too?    We'll see what Apple guides and then you can judge your hero.
    I never said he was my hero. And don't be petty.

    He seems to be accurate enough of the time though.

    Does he get some things wrong? Absolutely.

    I was only trying to show you his record of predicting things about Apple. Now go on and downvote this response as well.
  • Reply 50 of 64
    jfc1138 said:
    So you see that 30% reducing Apple margins by what amount, specifically?


    No clue. Obviously they didn't sell everything at a discount, and most things not at a 30% discount.  All I ever said was that it is not a very good sign.
  • Reply 51 of 64
    josujosu Posts: 217member

    sog35 said:

    Expecting earnings per share of $3.23,  up from $3.06 a year ago. 

    Total revenue is expected to be $76.6 billion, up less than 3% from $74.6 billion a year ago. 

    Analysts estimate Apple sold 75 million units to bring in $51.3 billion. 

    For next quarter, analysts forecast total sales of $55.6 billion and EPS of $2.22, which would be 4% less revenue than Apple had in the same quarter last year -- the first time revenue declined since 2003. 

    Don't forget that revenue would be up another 5-7% if not for the strong dollar.

    In last conference call  Tim Cook stated that guidance was for 10% revenue growth based on constant currency.
    He said that revenue growth would be 7% due to headwinds by exchange rates, something that in the €/$ case has pretty much stabilized. as I remember, maybe mi memory betrays me, he said double digit constant currency, not exactly 10% But hey, maybe you are right, and I remember it wrong.
    edited January 2016
  • Reply 52 of 64

    sog35 said:
    williamh said:
    We'll know soon enough, won't we?  Stores do sometimes sell a product at a loss to attract customers. The facts we have are the guidance Apple gave several months ago, which itself was merely a prediction. Pretty thin bunch of facts.

     
    Are you calling Apple's guidance a thin bunch of facts?

    Give me a friken break!  Apple has not over estimated gross margin guidance for over 10 years!  And you have the audacity to say you are more reliable than Apple's guidance?

    Friken ridiculous just because you worked at a grocery store you think you know what Apple is doing regarding wholesale pricing.
    I'm calling Apple's guidance not a fact at all.  It's a prediction.  Apple didn't invent a time machine yet so they don't know exactly what people will buy.  They are smart and they do have history to go by, but they still don't know just what will happen.  Even for Apple, not everything goes according to plan.  I have the audacity to say that Apple could miss their guidance. 

    I've never worked at a grocery store, but I'm sure you meant that as some sort of zinger. I've seen no evidence that you know anything about anything.  You're just parroting Apple's guidance.  Apple rarely misses guidance so you've got a good chance of being correct, but you don't KNOW anything.
  • Reply 53 of 64

    sog35 said:
    Name me another product that sold over 10 million units in its first year of release? Ridiculous.

    If it wasn't such a hot device why was the AppleWatch one of the main advertised items in every single electronics Black Friday ad?  Seems like you are listening to the Wall Street meme that the Watch is a failure.
    I listened so closely to the meme that I went out and bought one when I saw it on a great sale.    As long as we're sticking to the facts, what is your source for the number of Apple Watches that have been sold?  Or did you not intend to imply that Apple Watch was such a product?  The fact is you have no "frickin" idea what the number is.  Whether it is a success in Apple's view (as opposed to your view which is an unambiguous and unqualified YES) depends on their expectations.  Apple's expectations would have guided their production volumes, etc.  If Apple expected to sell 15 million and sold 10 million, then no, that is not an unqualified success.  I don't know how many Apple expected to sell, and I don't know how many they did sell.  And neither do you.  And I am not sure Apple will tell us tonight either.

    If it was such a hot device, why the discounts? Do you think these companies just want to leave money on the table?  Do you know anything?
    edited January 2016 singularity
  • Reply 54 of 64
    sog35 said:
    I'm sorry this doesnt work because Apple software only works with Apple hardware. They don't sell stand alone software. 
    It does work.  Because what Apple would be providing would be considered supplimental financial information. There is no law or accounting standard that does not allow you to separate hardware costs with software costs. There is also no law or standard against seperating hardware sales from software sales. This is the case even if the software is not available seperately.

    Other companies do this all the time. For example repair companies report parts revenue and labor revenue seperate. This is the case even though you can't buy parts or labor seperately.  
    But Apple is selling me an iPhone, not iOS. Who cares what percent is considered hardware and what percent is software/services? If Wall Street is stubbornly going to treat Apple as a hardware company tweaking the financials isn't going to change anything. It's not like these guys don't know Apple is responsible for its own software and services.
    singularity
  • Reply 55 of 64
    sog35 said:

    Apple's guidance is legendarily conservative.
    They have not missed gross margin guidance in TEN FRIKEN YEARS.

    yet you want people to believe you and the bullshit media crap you are pushing.
    Give me a fricken break.

    I know what to rely on.  And that's Apple guidance.  You want to rely on some bullshit story from the media that wants to generate clicks.

    Also consider if Apple did get KILLED and took hits discounting goods their gross margin would be hurt big time. If it was materially under the 40% from their guidance THEY WOULD BE OBLIGATED TO WARN INVESTORS.  If would have to warn investors that they missed guidance by a material amount. There was no such warning. So that means Apple was very close to the 40% gross margin they guided to.
    I guess there's no point in waiting around for Apple to release the information, since you already told us what Apple predicted months ago.  You are so full of crap.   By the by, you do know that Apple is FORBIDDEN FROM WARNING INVESTORS about their progress against their publicly stated goals during the "quiet period" before the earnings announcement.  Wikipedia explains it thus:  "During a Quiet Period, a publicly listed company cannot make any announcements about anything that could cause a normal investor to change their position on the company's stock. "  But you don't have to believe me or Wikipedia.  You can read about it here: http://www.sec.gov/answers/quiet.htm

    I mentioned before and I'll mention again that I haven't sold any of my shares.  I'm not predicting doom.  I am also not expecting anything that will drive the stock meaningfully higher (not much better than their guidance.)  I don't see the point in your posts.  You have NOTHING TO ADD.  The guidance, the guidance.  Tim Cook needs to do something!  In these discussions, I would hope people would use their brains and their experience to join some of the dots and produce something useful.  All you've got is Apple's guidance.  

    BTW, what I am hoping for is that Apple will meet their guidance and have a positive outlook for the next quarter.  Yes, looking for Apple's next guidance. Don't need your pollyanna bullshit.




    edited January 2016
  • Reply 56 of 64
    tmaytmay Posts: 5,716member
    williamh said:

    sog35 said:

    If it wasn't such a hot device why was the AppleWatch one of the main advertised items in every single electronics Black Friday ad?  Seems like you are listening to the Wall Street meme that the Watch is a failure.
    I listened so closely to the meme that I went out and bought one when I saw it on a great sale.    As long as we're sticking to the facts, what is your source for the number of Apple Watches that have been sold?  Or did you not intend to imply that Apple Watch was such a product?  The fact is you have no "frickin" idea what the number is.  Whether it is a success in Apple's view (as opposed to your view which is an unambiguous and unqualified YES) depends on their expectations.  Apple's expectations would have guided their production volumes, etc.  If Apple expected to sell 15 million and sold 10 million, then no, that is not an unqualified success.  I don't know how many Apple expected to sell, and I don't know how many they did sell.  And neither do you.  And I am not sure Apple will tell us tonight either.

    If it was such a hot device, why the discounts? Do you think these companies just want to leave money on the table?  Do you know anything?
    Oh, you mean discounts like this?

    http://9to5mac.com/2015/11/09/early-black-friday-ads-apple/

    Not seeing any connection to discounts from Apple, but keep on speculating.
  • Reply 57 of 64
    tmay said:
    williamh said:

    I listened so closely to the meme that I went out and bought one when I saw it on a great sale.    As long as we're sticking to the facts, what is your source for the number of Apple Watches that have been sold?  Or did you not intend to imply that Apple Watch was such a product?  The fact is you have no "frickin" idea what the number is.  Whether it is a success in Apple's view (as opposed to your view which is an unambiguous and unqualified YES) depends on their expectations.  Apple's expectations would have guided their production volumes, etc.  If Apple expected to sell 15 million and sold 10 million, then no, that is not an unqualified success.  I don't know how many Apple expected to sell, and I don't know how many they did sell.  And neither do you.  And I am not sure Apple will tell us tonight either.

    If it was such a hot device, why the discounts? Do you think these companies just want to leave money on the table?  Do you know anything?
    Oh, you mean discounts like this?

    http://9to5mac.com/2015/11/09/early-black-friday-ads-apple/

    Not seeing any connection to discounts from Apple, but keep on speculating.
    That's awesome Sherlock.  No connection to Apple other than the fact that they're Apple products getting discounted. Retailers aren't in the business of making Apple some money.  You are speculating that the retailer takes the full hit.  Don't tell me you've got facts to support your position.
  • Reply 58 of 64
    OMG!

    Only 40 minutes away. I am so engorged with anticipation that I am ready to burst!
  • Reply 59 of 64
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 23,363member
    josu said:
    sflagel said:
    josu said:

    No. they are measuring all EPS, if that they don't have to count the sales overseas of EVERY company in the US.
    Few US companies earn such a high percentage of their income overseas, plus almost 100% of Apple's growth is expected to come from overseas. Lastly, not all companies use international tax havens so that the cost of repatriation is lower. I don't know, just thinking, why else would Apple have such a high EPS yield? (Average S&P 500 Earnings Yield is 7.8%)
    Wrong, 2012 estimates where that american corporations had at least 1,3 trillion $ overseas due to double taxation issues. I clearly remember Cisco's CEO John Chambers speaking in Bloomberg saying that if US government reform the tax code they will repatriate 45 billion in overseas funds to invest in the US.

    And is known that Amazon, Google or Microsoft are in the same situation. The only difference between Apple and the rest is the amount of money overseas
    Double taxation issues? Which companies are taxed twice on the same profits? 
  • Reply 60 of 64
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 23,363member

    sog35 said:
    williamh said:
    jfc1138 said:
    "I don't think..."

    and that's anecdote/speculation then. 

    What the store "should" expect and what actually occurs are two different matters. And given the secrecy with which any commercial entity treats it business not likely to be revealed anytime soon, certainly not with enough certainty to warrant conclusions about a corporation's future. (IMHO, of course).
    Here you come to the rescue with the facts.  I know for a fact that manufacturers support retailers by paying for ad space, product placement, and all sorts of selling expenses.  You do know that grocery stores don't pay for coupons, right?  At one time, Apple even paid to place fanboys in stores to push products (I know this because I was one of them.)  Do I know that Apple did so this time for a fact. No.  But I do have a sufficient understanding of Apple's costs and their margins to know that they are not giving the reseller over 35%.
    No. You are spewing BS.  You are comparing Apple which sells the hottest devices on the planet to a company selling cereal in the supermarket.
    Its a know fact that stores like Walmart/Bestbuy/Target sometimes sell Apple products at a loss to attract customers into the stores.
    Where did you find this known fact? Never ran across it before in my reading. 
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