Apple's iPhone shipments 'likely' to fall below 200M in 2016, insider says

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in iPhone
With lower-than-expected demand for the iPhone 6s, a soft iPhone SE launch, and dual-camera designs from competitors expected to beat the 'iPhone 7 Plus' to market, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo believes iPhone shipments could fall below 200 million units this year.




The KGI Securities analyst, who has a strong track record in predicting Apple's future product plans, made his predictions in a note to investors on Monday, a copy of which was obtained by AppleInsider. In it, he forecast shipments of between 85 million and 95 million iPhone units in the first half of 2016, followed by 105 million to 115 million in the back half of the year.

In all, that means he believes iPhone units will fall between 190 million and 210 million for the full year, and he believes Apple is "likely" to see sales fall on the short end of that prediction, dipping under 200 million.

To put the forecast in perspective, Apple shipped 232 million iPhones in 2015. And most on Wall Street expect Apple to ship between 210 million and 230 million iPhones this year.

Kuo's conservative predictions are led by a trio of factors, most notably that he believes replacement demand for larger displays is slowing down. In addition, the newly launched iPhone SE does not present a new form factor, so he believes it won't appeal to a large number of consumers.

But perhaps the most interesting forecast is related to Apple's upcoming "iPhone 7:" Kuo continues to believe that Apple's anticipated dual-camera iSight array will be exclusive to the larger 5.5-inch "Plus" model. If true, that would mean Apple's more popular 4.7-inch model won't gain the same advanced camera system.




In addition, Kuo said a number of Apple's competitors, including Xiaomi, ZTE and Lenovo, are all planning to launch their own dual-camera smartphone systems, and many of them are expected to beat Apple's "iPhone 7 Plus" to market. If that happens, he believes first impressions of Apple's system could "underwhelm" prospective buyers.

Kuo has a proven track record in predicting Apple's future product plans. Most recently, he was first to peg the $400 to$500 pricing range and all of the hardware specifications for Apple's newly launched iPhone SE, which he expects will see 12 million shipments in 2016.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 47
    slurpyslurpy Posts: 5,116member
    "In addition, Kuo said a number of Apple's competitors, including Xiaomi, ZTE and Lenovo, are all planning to launch their own dual-camera smartphone systems, and many of them are expected to beat Apple's "iPhone 7 Plus" to market. "

    Yeah, because history shows us that all companies need to do is ship products and features before Apple in order to "win", and that Apple customers buy Apple products because of a bullet list of features, not the entire design, experience, package, brand, and ecosystem. 

    There is no fucking way in hell Apple will sell LESS iPhones this year than last year, especially considering they will be on a "tick" cycle with a brand new iPhone body. Kuo is a facking moron, but of course, he will still be considered a "noted" analyst even when his sales projections turn out to be complete horse-shit. 
    uffenmannetmagemonstrositymwhitepscooter63palomineSpamSandwichcaliai46mdriftmeyer
  • Reply 2 of 47
    I think we're more likely to see a drop in the ASP rather than a significant volume drop. The full effect of the iPhone SE will become obvious by end of year. It's pretty clear that Apple are furthering their strategy, they already command the majority of profits in the flagship level of smartphone sales and are now using their supply chain volume advantage to produce cheaper devices which squeeze down near-competitors, effectively making cheaper me-too devices less profitable. (More specifically laying waste to a new price range with a handset that features superior technology for this price point.)
    icoco3macky the mackybaconstang
  • Reply 3 of 47
    elijahgelijahg Posts: 830member
    Why does anyone listen to this idiot? He continually spouts crap that everyone listens to, even if it's proven completely wrong days later.
    mwhitecali
  • Reply 4 of 47
    irelandireland Posts: 17,549member
    He should be referred to as 'analyst' not insider.
    edited April 2016
  • Reply 5 of 47
    Whether Ming Chi Kuo is a real person or not I guess does not matter.  His Name is used as a front whenever the powers that be want to change the conversation.  That is, "Somebody" from the Far East who supposedly has inside information.  His prediction powers when it comes to Apple results are at best 50-50.  I went back and looked at his predictions, most notable the current quarter that just closed.  He predicted 43 million phones this quarter due to his "inside" knowledge of the supply chain.  If you believe Ming Chi Kuo, then I suggest you sell Apple today.
    mwhitewonkothesanecalitdknox
  • Reply 6 of 47
    prolineproline Posts: 188member
    I think he's off base this time. Nobody has seen what a "dual camera system" can do, but adding this or that to the spec sheet is not what drives iPhone demand. Furthermore, the iPhone 7 is 5 months away, which means competitors won't beat it by much- I don't know many people who would switch to Lenovo just because the latter's camera was slightly better for a few weeks. As for the SE, it's a good phone at a good price point- it obviously isn't going to outsell the flagship iPhone 7s, but that doesn't mean there won't be an uptick in sales from it.
  • Reply 7 of 47
    irelandireland Posts: 17,549member
    His predictions that the SE "won't appeal to a large number of consumers" is vague as usual. Can he quantify that statement?

    Also I wish Apple should not differentiate the plus model form the regular model in terms for dual-cameras. Both should get them. I'd even go one step further and say iPhone 7 should be released in three sizes that includes a ~4" form—with dual-cameras for all three.
    wonkothesanecali
  • Reply 8 of 47
    mwhitemwhite Posts: 184member
    This insider is inside Apple's ass and can't see a thing
    cali
  • Reply 9 of 47
    rogifan_newrogifan_new Posts: 3,834member
    At least this didn't have the stupid "breaking" tag. But honestly I wish rumor sites would quit treating Ming-Chi Kuo's research notes as if they came from Tim Cook. It's just guessing based on supply chain noise and tumors.
    calistevehnolamacguy
  • Reply 10 of 47
    maestro64maestro64 Posts: 4,485member

    I tell you not sure who it doing the Right and wrong Tally on this guy, but for the most part this guys does far better or closer to the real numbers than any of the wall street Analysis who are always far more wrong than right, but we also know the wall street analysis create FUD and uncertainty so your big $ investors can make money on the wild swings they cause the stock to take.

    On the dual camera, we all know this feature will really come down to software, and we all know who have the better software which works well. Yeah they may have the feature but will it even work or will they have to wait two years before google updates software.

    cali
  • Reply 11 of 47
    rogifan_newrogifan_new Posts: 3,834member
    ireland said:
    His predictions that the SE "won't appeal to a large number of consumers" is vague as usual. Can he quantify that statement?

    Also I wish Apple should not differentiate the plus model form the regular model in terms for dual-cameras. Both should get them. I'd even go one step further and say iPhone 7 should be released in three sizes that includes a ~4" form—with dual-cameras for all three.
     And all three models should also have Taptic Engine and 3D Touch - space, supply constraints, battery size and costs be dammed? IF some dual camera system is coming to the next iPhone how do we know Apple has the supply to put it in every phone? Apple calling it the Plus says to me it will always have something that differentiates it from its smaller siblings (besides size). If it's not a space constraint issue then perhaps OIS will come to the 4.7" phone this year so they don't start creating too big of a gap between the two models. Initially this really bothered me but now after having a 6 and 6s it doesn't really. I guess I've just resigned myself to the fact the 5.5" model will have something better than its smaller sibling. Like Samsung having the Galaxy and Note lines.
  • Reply 12 of 47
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 6,819member
    I see “pump and dump” is in full swing again. AAPL has been rising lately so it’s time to dump with the standard predictions of doom. Take the profits and run then buy back after the dump. I’ve learned a lot about how corrupt the securities market is by following AAPL. From strategic leaks, to analyst kickbacks, to paid surveys and polls, to computerized buying and selling, the little guy doesn’t stand a chance.
    edited April 2016 pscooter63macky the mackycaliai46mwhitedrewys808bobschlob
  • Reply 13 of 47
    dick applebaumdick applebaum Posts: 12,505member
    I think we're more likely to see a drop in the ASP rather than a significant volume drop. The full effect of the iPhone SE will become obvious by end of year. It's pretty clear that Apple are furthering their strategy, they already command the majority of profits in the flagship level of smartphone sales and are now using their supply chain volume advantage to produce cheaper devices which squeeze down near-competitors, effectively making cheaper me-too devices less profitable. (More specifically laying waste to a new price range with a handset that features superior technology for this price point.)
    I believe you are correct!

    It is surprisingly happy work building a coffin — I do not know why …  I guess: ‘cause if you’re building it — you’re not the customer.  
    -Roy Underhill, Woodwright- 


    ai46
  • Reply 14 of 47
    dick applebaumdick applebaum Posts: 12,505member

    ireland said:
    His predictions that the SE "won't appeal to a large number of consumers" is vague as usual. Can he quantify that statement?

    Also I wish Apple should not differentiate the plus model form the regular model in terms for dual-cameras. Both should get them. I'd even go one step further and say iPhone 7 should be released in three sizes that includes a ~4" form—with dual-cameras for all three.

    ^^^ This.

  • Reply 15 of 47
    rogifan_newrogifan_new Posts: 3,834member
    lkrupp said:
    I see “pump and dump” is in full swing again. AAPL has been rising lately so it’s time to dump with the standard predictions of doom. Take the profits and run then buy back after the dump. I’ve learned a lot about how corrupt the securities market is by following AAPL. From strategic leaks, to analyst kickbacks, to paid surveys and polls, to computerized buying and selling, the little guy doesn’t stand a chance.
    Stock is up over 7% in the last month. Up over 1% today. I will not be surprised at all if it runs up a bit more and then has a huge sell off after earnings with all the smart people saying it's justified because of how much it had run up prior to earnings. Stock is at $111 right now. My Twitter feed was full of people saying it's going back to $80 a month or so ago.
  • Reply 16 of 47
    icoco3icoco3 Posts: 1,458member
    lkrupp said:
    I see “pump and dump” is in full swing again. AAPL has been rising lately so it’s time to dump with the standard predictions of doom. Take the profits and run then buy back after the dump. I’ve learned a lot about how corrupt the securities market is by following AAPL. From strategic leaks, to analyst kickbacks, to paid surveys and polls, to computerized buying and selling, the little guy doesn’t stand a chance.
    The little guy can stay long term and will profit nicely.
  • Reply 17 of 47
    dick applebaumdick applebaum Posts: 12,505member

    slurpy said:

    There is no fucking way in hell Apple will sell LESS iPhones this year than last year, especially considering they will be on a "tick" cycle with a brand new iPhone body. Kuo is a facking moron, but of course, he will still be considered a "noted" analyst even when his sales projections turn out to be complete horse-shit. 

    I suspect that Apple may be ending its Tick-Tock strategy and releasing new products when they will realize the best [competitive] advantage ...  I think the iPhone SE and new 9.7 iPad Pro are the first incarnations of this new strategy.

    It is surprisingly happy work building a coffin — I do not know why …  I guess: ‘cause if you’re building it — you’re not the customer.  
    -Roy Underhill, Woodwright- 


    ai46
  • Reply 18 of 47
    SpamSandwichSpamSandwich Posts: 30,863member
    Kuo is an outsider, not an insider. An insider would be a person who actually works at Apple and who has special knowledge.
    calinolamacguy
  • Reply 19 of 47
    josujosu Posts: 217member
    First, this forecast is a long shot, so he is making sales forecasts for all the year without any hard data of supply chain, he's more reliable source, a risky move.
    Second, the guy is not that accurate in sales forecasts as is in product launches. And in this he lately predicted that the iPhone 5s would be sold alongside the SE for $250, not so accurate as we know now. Not to forget that when Apple launched the 5s he forecasted sales in the first week end between 6 to 8 million, but, as in this report, he thought they would be nearer six than eight, but they ended being 9 million.

    Ming-Chi-Kuo is a supply chain expert, so he is accurate predicting a slow down in production, or the specifications of the next product launches, but his forecasts are made based on suppliers mostly. He was the first to speak about the iPhone SE, and the first to say that it was basically a 4" 6s, and he nailed, as usual. But in sales forecasts he make as much mistakes as everybody. Last year in the F3Q he overestimated by a huge margin the iPhone sales and underestimated the iPad ones, by nearly the same margin.
    edited April 2016 igroucho
  • Reply 20 of 47
    schlackschlack Posts: 686member
    i think people are continuing to underestimate iPhone SE demand. apple could amp things up if they could release the iPhone 7 early...out of cycle...like in july or august...but perhaps that's not possible at this point.
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