iPhone sales fall to 51.2M, Apple earns $50.6B in revenue in disappointing March quarter

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  • Reply 141 of 163
    sog35 said:
    Not trying to be an azz here Sog but why are you comparing 2014 numbers? Shouldn't they be compared to the quarter from this time last year, not two years ago?
    I'm comparing 2 years ago because the iPhone 6 cycle was an ANOMALY. There was multiple years of PENT UP DEMAND for a larger iPhone. It is unfair to compare that once in a decade cycle to this year.

    In all businesses there are peaks and troughs in sales. The key is to look at the longer term trend. 2, 3, 5, and 10 year trends. You can't just look at 1 year.  Looking at the 2 year and 5 year trend - iPhone is showing great growth.

    Tim Cook said it best:

    ." We are lower than the iPhone 6, but I think all of us know that was an extraordinary cycle, that accelerated upgrades from 2016 into 2015, and so that comparable will be tough for this year, but that's a transitory thing."

    In other words alot of the people who suppose to upgrade in 2016 (those who bought the 5s) upgraded earlier in 2015. That hurt 2016 sales.  But that is transitory and temporary as Cook said. I fully expect like Cook that iPhone 7 sales will again show growth.
    And if you look at the 30-year trend, Apple is ON FIRE! 

    Come on, sog, you're just being silly. There are short-term trends and long-term trends. As of right now, revenue and income-wise, Apple is on a downward short-term trend. That doesn't mean they're going out of business, but it is what it is. They're doing a little worse now than they were last year. The question now is whether the trend reverses, remains the same, or accelerates. 
    singularity
  • Reply 142 of 163
    brucemcbrucemc Posts: 1,540member
    sog35 said:
    then why is iPhone 6s sales 32% higher than iPhone 5s sales?

    If the economy is doing so much worse today than in 2014, why is Apple selling 32% more iPhone units then in 2014?


    Not trying to be an azz here Sog but why are you comparing 2014 numbers? Shouldn't they be compared to the quarter from this time last year, not two years ago?
    It depends.  Do you want to get a view as to how a company has performed with a slightly longer view than year-on-year? The bigger picture, or the myopic one?  The compare from 2014 to 2015 was massively good for a company of Apple's size, and the iPhone market size.  One can easily make the case that with the iPhone 6 line, there was both pent-up demand for larger screen, and perhaps brought in some more switchers, which resulted in a higher than typical increase.  Thus 2015 was very good (over 30% growth)  That makes the sales for 2016 both challenging on their own (so many upgraded or bought new in 2015), and makes the compare very tough.  But look at the average growth over two years - perhaps 15% CAGR when looked at that way...pretty good?  Most of those iPhone 6 line purchases will be upgraded in the future, but not in 2016 - likely most in 2017 and 2018 (2-3 year cycle).  

    When I look at my financial investments, while I am interested in the latest 1-year results a little be, what matters most to me is what my CAGR (cumulative average growth rate) is over many years, and of course my expectations of what that will be going forward.  
  • Reply 143 of 163
    jackansijackansi Posts: 116member
    To ignore the "pent up demand for larger screens in 2014-2015" making those years fall a bit outside of direct comparison is foolish.  To ignore that had it not been for "pent up demand for larger screens" this current "turn of events" probably would have happened a year or two earlier than now, is very short sighted.

    Apple just doesn't have anything fresh coming out that the general population of consumers cares about right now.  The simple fact the last "killer feature" that drove big sales was just "bigger screens" is troublesome, at best, for a company that beats the innovation drum so hard.  Hard to fathom how anyone could miss that.

    In other words: Get used to these kinds of calls.

    Apple is only getting what it deserves for not living up to their own hype.  That's it.  It's the current leadership's (if you can call it that) fault; not wall street or anything cuckoo concerning the markets.  Ive is washed up or in a pretty bad lull, Cook is spent, and Cue is off in lala land mixing it up with celebs too busy to come up with anything good.
    kermit4krazy
  • Reply 144 of 163
    knowitallknowitall Posts: 1,451member
    gatorguy said:
    knowitall said:
    This is actually a very good result because the share price will go up. The reason is that wall street is unreasonable.
    Wall Street is recommending Apple as a good investment, even after this quarter's results. No idea why you think they're anti-Apple unless you've only found your news on Apple fan sites. 

    As far as I know 'unreasonable' isn't the same as 'anti-Apple', or is it?
  • Reply 145 of 163
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 21,117member
    knowitall said:
    gatorguy said:
    knowitall said:
    This is actually a very good result because the share price will go up. The reason is that wall street is unreasonable.
    Wall Street is recommending Apple as a good investment, even after this quarter's results. No idea why you think they're anti-Apple unless you've only found your news on Apple fan sites. 

    As far as I know 'unreasonable' isn't the same as 'anti-Apple', or is it?
    I agree.So are the Wall Street analysts recommending Apple stock as an investment and predicting higher stock prices being reasonable or unreasonable? 
    edited April 2016
  • Reply 146 of 163
    sog35 said:
    And if you look at the 30-year trend, Apple is ON FIRE! 

    Come on, sog, you're just being silly. There are short-term trends and long-term trends. As of right now, revenue and income-wise, Apple is on a downward short-term trend. That doesn't mean they're going out of business, but it is what it is. They're doing a little worse now than they were last year. The question now is whether the trend reverses, remains the same, or accelerates. 
    Looking at trends and ignoring circumstances is foolish.

    Its like if some one made $50k salary in 2015 but also got a small inheritance from his grand uncle of $50k. He made $100k total.
    The next year his salary is $75k but did not receive an inheritance. 

    Would you say his earnings is on a down trend? Hell no. Because you realize the $50k was a one time event. Same with the iPhone 6 cycle. That was a one time event.

    Basically Apple is getting punished this year because they had a ridiculously successful year last year. For crying out loud iPhone 6 units were up 40,000,000 and 43% in the first 2 quarters compared to iPhone 5s.  That is NOT normal. That is an ANOMALY.  In fact the increase in iPhone 6 units was more than the combine increase in units for the iPhone 5s AND iPhone 5 COMBINED.
    "Basically Apple is getting punished this year because they had a ridiculously successful year last year. "

    Come on. You know that's not all of it. iPhone sales ALWAYS spike after the release of a new non-S model. Always. Mac sales were also down -- at a rate exceeding the PC industry overall. iPad sales continue to fall. Apple lost marketshare to its competitors in every core area. 

    You can rationalize anything if you try hard enough. Doesn't change the facts. 
    singularity
  • Reply 147 of 163
    cnocbuicnocbui Posts: 3,613member
    sog35 said:
    cnocbui said:
    Chowdhry should probably back off and take a look at the current global picture.  Numerous countries and regions teetering on the edge of outright recession, currency wars and central banks desperately trying to fix the unfixable and likely just creating pain with interest in the near future.  China is a great big bad debt implosion just waiting to happen and trigger a global avalanche.  The Smartphone market - at Western, Apple like price levels - has mostly reached global saturation with a swathe of Chinese manufacturers producing very capable devices at less than half the cost of Western priced equivalents.

    The downturn in Apple's recent fortunes has little to do with management.
    then why is iPhone 6s sales 32% higher than iPhone 5s sales?

    If the economy is doing so much worse today than in 2014, why is Apple selling 32% more iPhone units then in 2014?


    The once-off bigger screen phenomenon, which Cook mentioned and you yourself have parroted several times.

    To vindicate what I said earlier:

    The global smartphone market declined for the first time as major countries like China continue to mature, according to a report.

    Global smartphone shipments fell 3 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2016 to hit 335 million units, according to a Strategy Analytics report on Wednesday.

    A number of other research firms also came out with their own numbers which weren't as grim but still showed no growth in smartphones sales. According to IDC, vendors shipped a total of 334.9 million smartphones in the first quarter, a 0.2 percent year-on-year rise. In the fourth quarter of 2015 smartphone sales were 5.7 percent up on the same period in 2014. Meanwhile, Counterpoint said growth was flat.

    http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/28/the-smartphone-market-declined-for-the-first-time-ever-samsung-still-on-top.html



  • Reply 148 of 163
    cnocbuicnocbui Posts: 3,613member
    sog35 said:
    cnocbui said:
    The once-off bigger screen phenomenon, which Cook mentioned and you yourself have parroted several times.

    To vindicate what I said earlier:

    http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/28/the-smartphone-market-declined-for-the-first-time-ever-samsung-still-on-top.html



    Sorry but you are wrong. This is only a slight bump in the road for smartphones.

    Estimates are that there will be over SIX BILLION smartphone users by 2020.

    http://techcrunch.com/2015/06/02/6-1b-smartphone-users-globally-by-2020-overtaking-basic-fixed-phone-subscriptions/

    That's THREE AND HALF BILLION new users since 2015.

    Sorry but long/mid term the smartphone market is going to grow big time.
    No, I am not wrong.  You seem to think I said something other than what I actually said.
  • Reply 149 of 163
    cnocbuicnocbui Posts: 3,613member
    sog35 said:
    cnocbui said:
    No, I am not wrong.  You seem to think I said something other than what I actually said.
    What did you mean to say?

    It sounds like you think the global smartphone market has peaked.
    please explain what you meant.

    While experts are saying OVER TWO BILLION new smartphone users will enter the market in the next 5 years.
    You only have to go back and read what I actually said.  I said the management team at Apple were not to blame for the current decline in sales as it was most likely due to declining world economic conditions.  I then posted a link to an article stating smartphone sales had actually declined for the first time ever, which supports what I said.

    You launched into an attack, seeming to think I said something about future sales of smartphones - something I said nothing about, whatsoever.
    edited April 2016 gatorguysingularity
  • Reply 150 of 163
    pmzpmz Posts: 3,433member
    Honestly, its quite ridiculous for anyone to think that iPhone 6s would have caused sales to continue to grow on the back of what iPhone 6 did.

    iPhone 6 was a special release. It drew tons of upgraders, and first timers, and switchers. The iPhone 6s never could have been expected to repeat that. All they could ever have hope for was for it to continue. And boy did it continue. 
  • Reply 151 of 163
    pmzpmz Posts: 3,433member
    Its truly insane when you think about it. iPhone 6 had the benefit of introducing 4.7 and 5.5" iPhones for the first time. iPhone 6s did not have that benefit. iPhone 6s had the benefit of "its better" marketing. In light of that its amazing to think that iPhone 6s did as well it did.
  • Reply 152 of 163
    SpamSandwichSpamSandwich Posts: 31,413member
    Apple should really start thinking hard about pulling all manufacturing from China. It won't be long until their government starts requiring mandatory proprietary technology disclosures:  http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/04/29/world/asia/china-foreign-ngo-law.html

    Time to imagine a future that does not depend on China for growth because they are becoming more and more hostile to outside forces to maintain control.
    edited April 2016 cnocbui
  • Reply 153 of 163
    knowitallknowitall Posts: 1,451member
    gatorguy said:
    knowitall said:

    As far as I know 'unreasonable' isn't the same as 'anti-Apple', or is it?
    I agree.So are the Wall Street analysts recommending Apple stock as an investment and predicting higher stock prices being reasonable or unreasonable? 
    Unreasonable as expected: 'bad' results and a bad forecast should lead to lower stock prices.

  • Reply 154 of 163
    joshajosha Posts: 901member
    iPads just keep falling 
    But the iPad population just keeps growing, reducing laptop sales.
    The problem is they last a long time with personal use, so aren't replaced as frequently as iPhones.
  • Reply 155 of 163
    joshajosha Posts: 901member
    sog35 said:
    Bought 300 shares at $99. 
    May drop even more but does not matter.
    I'm holding these suckers for 10+ years.
    Good move.  I plan to buy back some shares I sold at over $120.
    That will increase my total holding cost, and give me a bit more profit.
  • Reply 156 of 163
    joshajosha Posts: 901member
    atlapple said:
    sog35 said:
    Bought 300 shares at $99. 

    May drop even more but does not matter.

    I'm holding these suckers for 10+ years.
    Then you have already lost money. You never learn.
    An investing tip for you "atlapple".  ;)
    An investor buys on dropping prices, then sells on rising prices.
    If you wait for the bottom or top, you aren't an investor.
  • Reply 157 of 163
    joshajosha Posts: 901member
    volcan said:
    Tim said: "Our team executed extremely well in the face of strong macroeconomic headwinds,"

    Wall Street has been up recently but US consumer confidence is mostly flat to negative. The markets in nearly the entire rest of the world has been down especially Asia, Europe and also currencies with respect to the USD. I can see 
    macroeconomic headwinds as a reasonable explanation for declining CE sales. Hopefully it is a temporary situation although I'm keeping my fingers crossed. Considering the miserable choices of US presidential candidates, things might get worse before they get better.
    So true, the very high US$ has been a big problem for sales here in Canada as well as in most countries.
     The base iPhone 6 is now C$769 vs US$549.   The iPhoneSE is now C$579 vs US$399.
    Since wages are similar in the two countries, it is much more difficult for people here to justify upgrading their iPhone.
    Of course Apple is making a higher margin outside of the USA, because of the high USA$.

    As for the poor choice for USA president, I always feel a candidate who is not going to make emotional changes which upset the apple cart is often best.  Yes Trump is appealing heavily on emotions, here in CDA we are very concerned about him.
  • Reply 158 of 163
    joshajosha Posts: 901member
    So any thoughts on how low the stock will go?
    All USA stocks will take a hit if Trump gets the top job!
  • Reply 159 of 163
    joshajosha Posts: 901member
    It's just hard to argue that the company is firing on all cylinders when all three major product categories are seeing year over year declines. I've been a fervent Apple fan and owner for at least a decade, but I've been seeing so many things since Jobs died that indicate to me that this isn't the same company anymore. So many decisions are marketing driven nowadays, like why I can't get a Macbook with two ports because they don't want it to steal sales from the Macbook Pro, or why I can't still get a computer with user-serviceable parts because then people will spend less on upgrades. These aren't things that benefit the end user. These are things that benefit the bottom line at the expense of the end user. 

    Just across the board, this is now a company focussed on making money MORE than it's focussed on making the best products in the world. 
    Right on.
    I'm holding back on buying a MacBook for the very reasons you mention.  That one port is very restrictive for my use.
    I've also considered a used 2012 or newer  11" MacBook Air for now, but most for sale are only 4mb of ram not upgradeable.
  • Reply 160 of 163
    joshajosha Posts: 901member
    Right. Because Microsoft and IBM are growth stocks. They are dividend stocks. The n-tier Enterprise approach doesn't work in the smartphone world, outside of the Enterprise markets. Apple is growing their collective ecosystem, and will differentiate services for Consumer/Commercial where it rightly sees fit.
    Yes MS is trying hard to grow in other products.
    But no IBM has not been growth for some time.  IBM is selling off parts of their business to just hang in there.
    IBM's move into software on Apple's iDevices is a plus for them.  I hope they succeed.   My IBM stock was sold off a few years ago.
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