Elon Musk expects 'Apple Car' to be late to market, estimates volume production by 2020

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Comments

  • Reply 41 of 82
    techprod1gytechprod1gy Posts: 838member
    lkrupp said:
    Even though you are more likely to be killed in a traffic accident than in an airplane crash people fear flying more than driving. One of the reasons is that they are not in control. All it will take is a few fatalities involving autonomous vehicles and the psychosis will set in. Then there are the a-hole psychopaths who will spend their days trying to hack and disrupt the autonomous traffic. I put self-driving cars in the same category as Google Glass, VR, 3D HDTVs, and curved screens, things techies will orgasm over but the mass market will reject.
    You are full of shit.  Autonomous driving will more than likely take off for the group that embraces this type of thing first obviously and will be a big hit for services such as taxi and delivery services.  There are a lot of hurdles to jump but that is part of anything new and innovative.  This will not happen over night but it will happen.
    fastasleep
  • Reply 42 of 82
    icoco3icoco3 Posts: 1,473member
    lukei said:
    The future is self driving cars. You won't own a car but just hail one via an app/other method. It will come to you. Drive you to your destination and then drive off. 
    You must mean a "Johnny Cab" B)




  • Reply 43 of 82
    icoco3icoco3 Posts: 1,473member
    I would rather have an Apple car than a Tesla. 
    Apple has higher quality standards than Tesla.
    Apple's car wouldn't have all the flaws that Tesla has.  The flaws are so numerous, Consumer Reports was forced to place Tesla on its not-recommended list.

    Musk's Apple remarks show his sour grapes attitude.
    Have you looked closely at many Apple products lately?  I would say they're filled with flaws, bugs, and shoddy design (along with slow development speed). It's not the same company it was several years ago, and I doubt that a logistics guy like Tim Cook can lead Apple into a major new venture like cars without a lot of mistakes. 

    Tesla has had a tremendous head start, has a lot of credibility in the market and has a CEO who has very strong product and strategic instincts, which is not something you can seriously say for Tim Cook. 

    That Musk has good instincts and has the organizational power to make big, bold bets makes him able to move Tesla quickly in important directions (like Jobs could). Tim Cook has the organizational power but not the instincts, and that will slow Apple down, and be a burden against Tesla. 


    That does not really mean anything in the market.  I think he is a very smart guy, but just because he has a headstart does not mean anything.  Microsoft had a headstart in phones over Apple and we know what happened there.




  • Reply 44 of 82
    sector7gsector7g Posts: 155member
    Late to the market? Tesla should be worried as they will never be able to match the software side, apple owns your phone, your pc, your music, your video/tv maps etc, apples car will be much more intergrated to the products you already own, and secondley as if every one in the world will want a car by 1 brand tesla. tesla will have a big lead, but once people see a new apple car that works much better with their iPhone, there next car will be apple.
  • Reply 45 of 82
    ericthehalfbeeericthehalfbee Posts: 4,378member
    I would rather have an Apple car than a Tesla. 
    Apple has higher quality standards than Tesla.
    Apple's car wouldn't have all the flaws that Tesla has.  The flaws are so numerous, Consumer Reports was forced to place Tesla on its not-recommended list.

    Musk's Apple remarks show his sour grapes attitude.

    Tesla has had a tremendous head start, has a lot of credibility in the market and has a CEO who has very strong product and strategic instincts, which is not something you can seriously say for Tim Cook. 


    Tesla has a head start? Rubbish that only a person with no automotive knowledge could ever assume. Nothing, and I mean NOTHING in a Tesla is ground breaking or revolutionary. They have zero technology that didn't already exist in the market. Their motor, controller and battery are nothing more than off-the-shelf designs tweaked ever so slightly for their needs. Meanwhile the rest of their cars (outside the electric drivetrain) are garbage. Cars at half the price have a better fit & finish and are better equipped.

    Chevy, who started on the Bolt AFTER Musk started on the Model 3, will beat the Model 3 to market by over a year. Tesla just doesn't have the experience the big automakers do when it comes time to ramp up production of a new vehicle model. And they are way behind the curve with the 75% of the car that ISN'T the electric drivetrain.

    Apple, unlike Tesla, actually DOES have an understanding of production issues when making high volume products. While not all of it directly translates over to car, the basics are the same. And Apple is smart enough to hire people in the industry to handle this for them. Tesla screwed up big time by putting a guy in charge of production who had no automotive experience. Ridiculous. Tim Cook would never be so stupid as to think someone from his iPad division should be put in charge of production at the automotive division.
    tmayicoco3
  • Reply 46 of 82
    lukei said:
    The future is self driving cars. You won't own a car but just hail one via an app/other method. It will come to you. Drive you to your destination and then drive off. 
    Lukei it's flattering that you are using my face as your avatar. But also creepy.
  • Reply 47 of 82
    maestro64maestro64 Posts: 5,036member
    lkrupp said:
    Even though you are more likely to be killed in a traffic accident than in an airplane crash people fear flying more than driving. One of the reasons is that they are not in control. All it will take is a few fatalities involving autonomous vehicles and the psychosis will set in. Then there are the a-hole psychopaths who will spend their days trying to hack and disrupt the autonomous traffic. I put self-driving cars in the same category as Google Glass, VR, 3D HDTVs, and curved screens, things techies will orgasm over but the mass market will reject.
    You are full of shit.  Autonomous driving will more than likely take off for the group that embraces this type of thing first obviously and will be a big hit for services such as taxi and delivery services.  There are a lot of hurdles to jump but that is part of anything new and innovative.  This will not happen over night but it will happen.

    Delivery service, who will unload the package when you are not home, oh it will use the air canon to launch to your package to the door step. But how does it work for large apartment buildings.

    Taxi's who will load and unload your bags at the airport.

    Yes, self driving cars will have their use case an most likely, in places where weather is not a factor 90% of the time.

    What I find interesting from the people who are declaring self driving is the future for everyone has most likely never lived in a place that get snow, or bad rain storms. Oh those people live in Northern Calf and work for Google. You really want a car design be people who never spend a winter day driving in snow designing your car. Yeah I trust them to get it right. I personally Trust my bad weather driving skills than a computer or most people on the road.

    You know the solution to the transportation system in city and such has already been solved a long time ago, it is call mass transit. When I am in NYC I rather use the subway then a cab, and when I visited Japan in business and pleasure I hardly ever step foot in a car, I mostly walked and use their mass transit system. It works great and this is coming from a gear head who loves his cars. You do not need self driving cars we just need to put in a good mass transit system. People will be healthier for walking places and transit system will take them to further places where you can not walk.

    edited June 2016 propod
  • Reply 48 of 82
    brucemcbrucemc Posts: 1,541member
    slurpy said:
    You forgot that lots of people live in the suburbs and also that a lot of people like to drive cars. I'll have to be dead before Silicon Valley prys my car from me.
    No one is going to try to fucking pry your car from you, and noone is saying self-driving cars would replace 100% of all cars, just like tablets will never replace all laptops, laptops will never replace all desktops, etc. There's billions of people on the planet, it's safe to define something as "the future" even if it does not apply to everyone. So no, he didn't "forget". Stop making everything about yourself. 
    Why does everyone take such extreme positions - autonomous cars will rule the world in 5 years - no wait...autonomous will be a niche forever.

    I do believe autonomous will be very widespread (but by no means the only method) in the future - but that future is many, many years away.  Right now, outside of a few test vehicles, there are no fully autonomous vehicles in the world.  In a market where there are about 80M units sold every year (and growing slightly) - and 95% of those are gasoline/diesel powered.  It is estimated there are over 1 billion motor vehicles in use around the world.  Over the next 5 years, there will be over 300M more sold.  Between this installed base, and the legal, regulatory and insurance frameworks, it will be a very long time before autonomous vehicles are even a significant minority of cars sold or in use globally (think decades).

    When looking at purely EV's, I believe these comprise less than .1% of the global base (in US, there are well less than 500K in total in market, so expect globally less than 1M, out of that over 1B base).  Even Tesla's own plans don't see them scaling to more than a few hundred K units per year by 2020.

    So no, if Apple brings an EV to market in 2020, they are not "late" by any stretch of the imagination (the market might just be getting going by then).  And certainly not late in any form of autonomous capability.


    tmay
  • Reply 49 of 82
    jonljonl Posts: 210member
    igorsky said:
    jonl said:
    Prediction: "You're sitting in it wrong."

    This meme is still going strong 5 years later, eh?
    Timeless humor is like that.

  • Reply 50 of 82
    wizard69 said:
    Interesting but I see zero demand for self driving cars.   Now more variety and better pricing in electric cars, that could be a big win.  
    I for one can't wait for a self driving car for my 1hr commute each way. I could be studying, improving my skills, watch a movie, work my side business making appointments and calls, or just getting more shut eyes. I'm guessing that I'm not the only one that can't wait for a self driving car.
    lostkiwi
  • Reply 51 of 82
    igorskyigorsky Posts: 640member
    jonl said:
    igorsky said:
    This meme is still going strong 5 years later, eh?
    Timeless humor is like that.

    Yeah that's what it is.
  • Reply 52 of 82
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 23,422member
    brucemc said:
    slurpy said:
    You forgot that lots of people live in the suburbs and also that a lot of people like to drive cars. I'll have to be dead before Silicon Valley prys my car from me.
    No one is going to try to fucking pry your car from you, and noone is saying self-driving cars would replace 100% of all cars, just like tablets will never replace all laptops, laptops will never replace all desktops, etc. There's billions of people on the planet, it's safe to define something as "the future" even if it does not apply to everyone. So no, he didn't "forget". Stop making everything about yourself. 
    Why does everyone take such extreme positions - autonomous cars will rule the world in 5 years - no wait...autonomous will be a niche forever.

    I do believe autonomous will be very widespread (but by no means the only method) in the future - but that future is many, many years away.  Right now, outside of a few test vehicles, there are no fully autonomous vehicles in the world.  
    http://qz.com/656104/a-fleet-of-trucks-just-drove-themselves-across-europe/
    The first ones may well be fleet trucks. 
  • Reply 53 of 82
    jonljonl Posts: 210member
    igorsky said:
    jonl said:
    Timeless humor is like that.

    Yeah that's what it is.
    So glad you agree!
  • Reply 54 of 82
    k2directork2director Posts: 194member
    crowley said:
    Tesla has had a tremendous head start, has a lot of credibility in the market and has a CEO who has very strong product and strategic instincts, which is not something you can seriously say for Tim Cook. 

    That Musk has good instincts and has the organizational power to make big, bold bets makes him able to move Tesla quickly in important directions (like Jobs could). Tim Cook has the organizational power but not the instincts, and that will slow Apple down, and be a burden against Tesla. 
    Do you really think the Model X showed more strategic insight than the Watch?
    Not particularly. But the Apple Watch isn't much of an out-of-the-box product itself. There were other watches before it and they were all pretty bad. Apple came in an improved on them, which is its MO. 

    But Tesla's charging network? The giga battery factory? The entire concept of Tesla? Those are all incredibly out-of-the-box and strategic ideas that I'm not sure Tim Cook's Apple is capable of coming up with on its own. 

    Face it: Apple's dominance these days or at least over the last several years was all established by Jobs. Tim Cook has capitalized on that momentum as a good COO should by expanding the market for Jobs' breakthrough products into other territories and expanding the product line (bigger screens, a watch, the SE, etc). But Tim Cook hasn't done much to make me feel he can generate his own momentum like Jobs could or like Elon Musk can. 

    In fact, Tim Cook's Apple has become sloppy with product quality (Apple's former undisputed strength), and let development in many product categories languish. 
  • Reply 55 of 82
    farmboyfarmboy Posts: 152member
    maestro64 said:

    You know one of the 20,000 new regulations the Obama administration put in place in the last 8 yrs includes ones about electric cars which will require them to make ICE motor noise while they are on the roads driving. Why they are afraid stupid pedestrians might get hit without having some sort of audio cues, as well as people losing a sense of how fast they are going without having the motor noise. Your dream of silence is a pipe drive our government made sure of that.

    6,113 regulations under Obama in first six years (not eight unless you have a flux capacitor in your BMW), compared to 6,536 under GW Bush for his first six years (per GAO, reported in Politifact). Just so we're not letting Fox hyperbole go unchecked. Bummer, I know (or should I say Bimmer).

    Also, the Pedestrian Safety Act of 2010 was a bipartisan bill, passed unanimously in the senate, and 379-30 in the house. NHTSA estimates that there would be 2800 fewer pedestrian and cyclist injuries over the life of each model year of hybrid/electric vehicles if equipped with the sound-generating recommendations, and the EU (admittedly a nanny state) is on a similar track. How valid the injury projections are I don't know, and the slow pace of introduction indicates some uncertainty by the regulators and resistance by the car manufacturers.
    fastasleep
  • Reply 56 of 82
    farmboyfarmboy Posts: 152member
    sog35 said:
    Elon Musk.

    The same guy that said there is a 99.99% chance that all of us are living in a Matrix like computer simulation.

    I'm not kidding.  Musk said there is less than a 1 in a billion chance that we are actually living in reality. He truly believes we are all living in a computer simulation.
    I wanna restart then. Didn't read the rules of engagement before achieving directed consciousness mode.
  • Reply 57 of 82
    icoco3icoco3 Posts: 1,473member
    farmboy said:
    maestro64 said:

    You know one of the 20,000 new regulations the Obama administration put in place in the last 8 yrs includes ones about electric cars which will require them to make ICE motor noise while they are on the roads driving. Why they are afraid stupid pedestrians might get hit without having some sort of audio cues, as well as people losing a sense of how fast they are going without having the motor noise. Your dream of silence is a pipe drive our government made sure of that.

    6,113 regulations under Obama in first six years (not eight unless you have a flux capacitor in your BMW), compared to 6,536 under GW Bush for his first six years (per GAO, reported in Politifact). Just so we're not letting Fox hyperbole go unchecked. Bummer, I know (or should I say Bimmer).

    Also, the Pedestrian Safety Act of 2010 was a bipartisan bill, passed unanimously in the senate, and 379-30 in the house. NHTSA estimates that there would be 2800 fewer pedestrian and cyclist injuries over the life of each model year of hybrid/electric vehicles if equipped with the sound-generating recommendations, and the EU (admittedly a nanny state) is on a similar track. How valid the injury projections are I don't know, and the slow pace of introduction indicates some uncertainty by the regulators and resistance by the car manufacturers.
    Politico says 4,000 more for 2016 are working their way through...

    http://www.politico.com/agenda/agenda/story/2016/1/obama-regulations-2016

    They say 20,642 so far here...

    http://dailysignal.com/2016/05/23/20642-new-regulations-added-in-the-obama-presidency/

    Guess information comes from a lot of places.


  • Reply 58 of 82
    jr_bjr_b Posts: 64member
    The big difference between Apple and Tesla?  $200 billion or more in Cash & Equivalents.
  • Reply 59 of 82
    cpsrocpsro Posts: 3,019member
    But Tesla's charging network? The giga battery factory? The entire concept of Tesla? Those are all incredibly out-of-the-box and strategic ideas that I'm not sure Tim Cook's Apple is capable of coming up with on its own. 
    What protects Tesla's charging network or battery factory from being copied (let alone improved)? Nothing. Tesla has given away many of its charging patents--to the potential benefit of all future e-car owners. Anybody with funds can build a battery factory.

    If people replaced their cars every 1-3 years (as they often do with smartphones), if one manufacturer could build enough vehicles to satisfy the world's (or even "just" the U.S.'s) needs at that rate, and if cars were associated with brand lock-in, Apple would be in trouble, but none of that even remotely holds. Apple has plenty of time. Tesla doesn't have time, though, because they're over-committed.
    edited June 2016
  • Reply 60 of 82
    joshajosha Posts: 901member
    I would rather have an Apple car than a Tesla. 
    Apple has higher quality standards than Tesla.
    Apple's car wouldn't have all the flaws that Tesla has.  The flaws are so numerous, Consumer Reports was forced to place Tesla on its not-recommended list.

    Musk's Apple remarks show his sour grapes attitude.
    So Apple updates the Apple Car OS and your car doesn't support it.
    Not likely you can continue driving with an out of date unsupported Car OS, so get out your wallet and scrap your current car !  :s
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