Apple's iPhone install base features growing 'powder keg' ripe for upgrades, Cowen says

2

Comments

  • Reply 21 of 41
    saltyzipsaltyzip Posts: 193member
    Why does this site give so much airtime to analyst's who are only interested in making money off the back of rumours and hear say and probably downright lie's?
    edited June 2016
  • Reply 22 of 41
    brucemcbrucemc Posts: 1,541member
    cropr said:
    volcan said:

    So by recent offerings you mean the iPhone 6s+? You know the one with optical camera stabilization, shoots 4K video, has TouchID, 3D Touch, Continuity, AirPlay, FileDrop, FaceTime, always on Siri, LTE Advanced, Wi-Fi Assist, integration with Apple Watch, 12 MP Live photos, TrueTone Flash, ambient light sensor, Taptic Engine not to mention the fasted 64 bit processor, and GPU that are literally 70% and 90% faster than the previous model, also the Metal coprocessor for better battery life and gaming, and probably more that I can't think of right now including the best developer environment of any other platform.
    ....
    With an established product line it is becoming more difficult for Apple to justify the high price, especially because an iPhone lack some feature that some people really appreciate: dual sim card, mini SD card, FM radio
    You forgot user replaceable battery, a slide out keyboard, and the ability to run Flash...
    foadbaconstanglolliverpatchythepiratenolamacguy
  • Reply 23 of 41
    damonfdamonf Posts: 229member
    jonl said:
    "Powder-keg" and "super-cycle" concerning replacement potential is a prayer for a sharp share price rise so their clients can sell to suckers who fall for their hype.
    Yep.  I have Apple shares now, I'll hold onto them, but I doubt I'd add more to my position until this year's Q4 numbers (Apple's fiscal Q1 2017) come out.  Unless this fall's product line is stellar.  I have a feeling it won't be anything to write home about.
    jonl
  • Reply 24 of 41
    michael_cmichael_c Posts: 164member
    foggyhill said:
    Unimpressed in what way? This is basically a standard issue response.
    In the industrial/product design way.

    It's a matter of expectations at the end. If the rumors about iPhone 7 are accurate (considering how the ones about the 6 indeed proved to be), it would seem Apple follows a 4-year radical redesign cycle next to its tick-tock "S" cycle. The original iPhone, then the 4 and the 6. The 3G(S) were incremental refinements of the original, and the 5 was little more than a stretched 4(S). I would have expected a radical redesign in 2016, at least for the sake of addressing the competition. But if the pattern holds, it looks like they'd pull a similar stunt with the 7 as they did with the 5, and perhaps sacrificing the S cycle in 2017 --unless they release a 7S next to the purported legendary 8. Although then it would become a bit too convoluted.

    Anyway. At the end of the day it's usually just us tech forum geeks who really care, and the 7 will set sale records regardless whatever lack of "wow" factor. 
    I see things a bit differently than you, but can appreciate your point of view. As technology matures, there is less room for radical improvements, unless you think of something like a smart watch as a natural extension of the phone design path. I have the 6+, and didn't upgrade to the 6s+ as there wasn't enough to compel me to upgrade. The contrast between what I have vs the latest wasn't significant enough for me - even though I believe force touch adds a significant layer to the interface, I held off for another cycle waiting for software to catch up to take advantage of the capability. But, there are millions of people who have older phones where the contrast continues to grow, and the list of capability lacking in their phones will have impact their decision to upgrade. The iPhone 7 sales will be fine this next cycle regardless of whether all the desired features are present - at this point, I don't know if I will wait another year to upgrade (in 2017), but will probably upgrade this fall. And, could always upgrade in 2017 if there was some compelling reason.
    lolliver
  • Reply 25 of 41
    volcanvolcan Posts: 1,799member
    cropr said:

    With an established product line it is becoming more difficult for Apple to justify the high price, especially because an iPhone lack some feature that some people really appreciate: dual sim card, mini SD card, FM radio 
    I do agree with you about the established product aspect of future iPhone sales as just about everyone who wanted one and could afford one, has one. The upgrade features will probably be incremental going forward, but I still feel the Apple build quality and software ecosystem are second to none. I realize that sort of small but constant improvement of quality only appeals to some and I quite disagree with the premise of the article as I think iPhone sales growth will instead flatten out in the near term, but that doesn't mean I can't appreciate all the thoughtful attention to detail that they put into it. 

    As far as the dual sim, SD card and FM radio are concerned, personally, I think I would rarely if ever use the dual sim here in the US where carriers cover the entire country. I can see it being useful in Europe where the carriers have roaming charges, at least so I've heard. As far as an SD Card, that is why we have the cloud. SD is just a security risk. And finally FM radio - it is such an awful experience here in the US, I have literally not turned it on in more than a decade, besides, any station worth listening to like NPR has an app and Apple probably wants you to listen Apple Music instead, or you can get Sirius Satellite radio for your car but the audio quality is a bit poor in my opinion. I just listen to my own local music collection.

    I find your remark about 80% of your peers being on Android interesting. Of the hundred or so contracts in my iPhone almost no one is on Android. I can tell because they all have a FaceTime audio button.
    edited June 2016 TurboPGTcroprbaconstanglolliver
  • Reply 26 of 41
    TurboPGTTurboPGT Posts: 355member
    TurboPGT said:
    Nothing, like so many trollbots they just regurgitate the opinion they are told to have by the various tech blogs which are their source for opinion and knowledge.
    I wonder what is your source. God? Steve Jobs from the beyond? 
    Common sense is a great source. It's never wrong.

    Do you not realize how embarrassingly transparent it is when the sum total of your opinion is just regurgitated headlines from sensationalist blogs? People can tell when they are conversing with a real person with a real opinion, or regurgitation.
    baconstangpatchythepiratelollivernolamacguy
  • Reply 27 of 41
    6Sgoldfish6Sgoldfish Posts: 108member
    TurboPGT said:
    I wonder what is your source. God? Steve Jobs from the beyond? 
    Common sense is a great source. It's never wrong.

    Do you not realize how embarrassingly transparent it is when the sum total of your opinion is just regurgitated headlines from sensationalist blogs? People can tell when they are conversing with a real person with a real opinion, or regurgitation.
    WTF are you even talking about? Do you even read through other people's opinions before passing knee-jerk retorts? My very real common-sense-based point was that I perceive diminishing effort & results in industrial/product design by the very company that became synonymous with the term. As such, I'm disappointed. And I know I'm not the only one. Now, if you have a temper you need to vent, take it with someone else. You're nothing but sanctimonious internet noise. 
    edited June 2016
  • Reply 28 of 41
    badmonkbadmonk Posts: 1,267member
    To those who are caught up with the concept that only changes to "industrial design" matter you need to know that Apple conserves industrial design because it often gets it right in the beginning.  if you don't value the build quality of the phone, the innards, the software and the ecosystem, than you are not right in the head.
    baconstangpatchythepiratelollivernolamacguy
  • Reply 29 of 41
    croprcropr Posts: 1,116member
    volcan said:
    cropr said:

    With an established product line it is becoming more difficult for Apple to justify the high price, especially because an iPhone lack some feature that some people really appreciate: dual sim card, mini SD card, FM radio 
    I do agree with you about the established product aspect of future iPhone sales as just about everyone who wanted one and could afford one, has one. The upgrade features will probably be incremental going forward, but I still feel the Apple build quality and software ecosystem are second to none. I realize that sort of small but constant improvement of quality only appeals to some and I quite disagree with the premise of the article as I think iPhone sales growth will instead flatten out in the near term, but that doesn't mean I can't appreciate all the thoughtful attention to detail that they put into it. 

    As far as the dual sim, SD card and FM radio are concerned, personally, I think I would rarely if ever use the dual sim here in the US where carriers cover the entire country. I can see it being useful in Europe where the carriers have roaming charges, at least so I've heard. As far as an SD Card, that is why we have the cloud. SD is just a security risk. And finally FM radio - it is such an awful experience here in the US, I have literally not turned it on in more than a decade, besides, any station worth listening to like NPR has an app and Apple probably wants you to listen Apple Music instead, or you can get Sirius Satellite radio for your car but the audio quality is a bit poor in my opinion. I just listen to my own local music collection.

    I find your remark about 80% of your peers being on Android interesting. Of the hundred or so contracts in my iPhone almost no one is on Android. I can tell because they all have a FaceTime audio button.
    I do agree with you that the iPhone sales won't collapse.  I only try to explain to some that Apple needs is act together to make better products or the market share will continue to drop due to reasons I have given. 

    The fact that Apple has no dual sim card solution, proves that Apple has too much a US centric product design.  With an iPhone as my primary device I've paid more than 300 Euro in roaming charges in 2014.  In 2015 I switched to a dual sim Moto G as my primary phone, and the cost for international traffic dropped to 80 Euro (I do travel a lot for professional reasons).

    I've developed and recently launched an app for managing membership and contact details in large associations. The statistics I get from app (only in Belgium for the moment) is about 3% of all communication between members of the association is iPhone to iPhone.  That is the reason why the features of Facetime and iMessage  are no so relevant.
    edited June 2016
  • Reply 30 of 41
    6Sgoldfish6Sgoldfish Posts: 108member
    badmonk said:
    To those who are caught up with the concept that only changes to "industrial design" matter you need to know that Apple conserves industrial design because it often gets it right in the beginning.  if you don't value the build quality of the phone, the innards, the software and the ecosystem, than you are not right in the head.
    Just because something's right in the beginning doesn't mean it stays right 3 years down the road. All the things that you mentioned matter, and so does design. Apple used to get it. Now it seems to not even bother. 

    No doubt Apple makes great quality products, but the excitement that came from anticipating their design innovations is disappearing. 
    If the incentive to drive innovation is based on repeat customers who will buy just about any product rehash, well, then we can name Apple Microsoft #2 and call it a day. 
    edited June 2016
  • Reply 31 of 41
    nolamacguynolamacguy Posts: 4,758member
    cropr said:
    volcan said:

    So by recent offerings you mean the iPhone 6s+? You know the one with optical camera stabilization, shoots 4K video, has TouchID, 3D Touch, Continuity, AirPlay, FileDrop, FaceTime, always on Siri, LTE Advanced, Wi-Fi Assist, integration with Apple Watch, 12 MP Live photos, TrueTone Flash, ambient light sensor, Taptic Engine not to mention the fasted 64 bit processor, and GPU that are literally 70% and 90% faster than the previous model, also the Metal coprocessor for better battery life and gaming, and probably more that I can't think of right now including the best developer environment of any other platform. 
    With an established product line it is becoming more difficult for Apple to justify the high price, especially because an iPhone lack some feature that some people really appreciate: dual sim card, mini SD card, FM radio 
    LMAO....dual SIM cards? do you know how many times I've met someone who wanted that feature? none. none is the number of times. external memory? oh please, not normal people. etc. you may as well be still whining about removable batteries. 
    baconstanglolliverfastasleep
  • Reply 32 of 41
    rcfarcfa Posts: 1,124member
    1983 said:
    The growing number of users due for upgrades signals a couple more things. A certain number them may be satisfied enough as to not care about upgrading to the latest and greatest. There are those who cannot afford to. And then there are those, myself included, who find themselves unimpressed by Apple's recent offerings and prefer to wait it out. And it's a long wait until 2017..
    Yes, I'm in the same camp as you. What might be worrying though is that a number of those older users also unimpressed by Apple's offerings, instead of waiting it out will jump ship and go to Android instead.
    Except there's nothing impressive about the Android offerings.

    Apple can only be as impressive as there are technological breakthroughs; and these don't come by demand of the marketing department.
    You can't massively increase CPU/GPU power without significant increases in battery's performance.

    Software innovation is often depending on CPU performance increases.

    So what remains are minor usability improvements like 3D Touch, improved workflows, bug fixes, better security, etc. all of which reduce the nuisance factor which is essential for long term customer retention.

    Until Apple unifies iOS, macOS, tvOS into one OS with universal apps and adaptive UI, such that iPhones can become computer replacements when docked, etc. the main growth for Apple will be through customer retention by being the least annoying system to use, and that translates into a sticky ecosystem and income streams from AppleMusic, AppStore, ApplePay, etc.

    It's these utility company like payments that will be the future of Apple, as reflected in their divided payments. People try to look at Apple as a growth company (which it still has the potential to be e.g. with an AppleCar), but it's real value is in being a utility company like dividend payer through recurring income streams from a sticky ecosystem.
    baconstangfastasleep
  • Reply 33 of 41
    jax44jax44 Posts: 79member
    mtbnut said:
    With the yawn-inducing features (and design) rumored to be going into the iPhone 7, looks like my 5S will keep doing its work for me for another year. 
    Yawn...
  • Reply 34 of 41
    KiraKKiraK Posts: 2member
    A two year cycle is ridiculous, and should not be encouraged by any environmentally friendly company. Profit margins won't mean a thing once the Earth is ruined by the one percent.
    lolliver
  • Reply 35 of 41
    frantisekfrantisek Posts: 755member
    People needs reason to upgrade. In current state of art number of older iPhones has enough features people needs. So why to upgrade? Speed? 3D Touch? 4K video? It is nice but how many people need it so much to pay that money? Most people who wanted big screen already upgraded. So what new phones can offer to regular user to pursue him for purchase? There can be some combination of SW a HW features that can bring radical new usability or productivity but who know which users will jump in. Augmented reality? Apple needs iPhone that it could sell in masses in India and some other poor big markets to keep previous growth. But such cheap iPhone they can not produce without loosing its profit.
  • Reply 36 of 41
    kevin keekevin kee Posts: 1,289member
    By spreading the number of upgraders evenly every year, not just in tick of tick-tock mode, will see Apple to increase their delivery and production efficiency. It will reduce the burden and pressure of producing large amount of phones which usually happened in the year of major upgrade such as when 6/6+ released. No more 6 weeks of delivery date just because everyone ordered at the same time. At least Apple is aiming for 50:50 the number of people purchase new iPhones in tick and tock year (regardless whether it still will be 'tick tock' years anymore). This assumption is based on 2-years cycle contract program as offered by majority Service Providers around the world. I see this as a good sign.
    edited June 2016
  • Reply 37 of 41
    jonljonl Posts: 210member
    KiraK said:
    A two year cycle is ridiculous
    No, it's unnecessary as the phones are good enough to be used for probably 4 years or more, and the iPhone isn't really a fashion statement anymore.

    , and should not be encouraged by any environmentally friendly company. Profit margins won't mean a thing once the Earth is ruined by the one percent.


    Now that's ridiculous.
  • Reply 38 of 41
    JonmatJonmat Posts: 24member
    It's not ridiculous. it may be a bit off topic but his point will be proven correct. Just not the current topic at hand.

    And when was the iPhone a fashion statement... Fashion, mainstream and trendy correlate in more than one single way. As does the statement in fashion.
    edited June 2016
  • Reply 39 of 41
    jonljonl Posts: 210member
    Jonmat said:
    It's not ridiculous. it may be a bit off topic but his point will be proven correct. Just not the current topic at hand.

    And when was the iPhone a fashion statement... Fashion, mainstream and trendy correlate in more than one single way. As does the statement in fashion.
    It's really lame to create an alter whose ridiculous first post is in support of another ridiculous first post.
    nolamacguy
  • Reply 40 of 41
    anomeanome Posts: 1,531member
    volcan said:
    So by recent offerings you mean the iPhone 6s+? You know the one with optical camera stabilization, shoots 4K video, has TouchID, 3D Touch, Continuity, AirPlay, FileDrop, FaceTime, always on Siri, LTE Advanced, Wi-Fi Assist, integration with Apple Watch, 12 MP Live photos, Taptic Engine not to mention the fasted 64 bit processor, and GPU that are literally 70% and 90% faster than the previous model, also the Metal coprocessor for better battery life and gaming, and probably more that I can't think of right now including the best developer environment of any other platform.

    When I see comments like yours I honestly wonder what would actually impress you.
    I said it. Improved/renewed industrial/product design would impress me.  Apple had eg. filed a patent a couple of years ago for encasing the electronics of iDevices within slabs of glass, and has recently filed a patent for 3D printing Liquidmetal components. They hired Marc Newson to join forces with Ive. They can afford to do literally anything they put their minds on. So, I'd like to see them put down to actual use.
    So you're saying that you think a new looking phone with the same internal components would be a better option than a phone that looks the same, but with upgraded internals? Doesn't that show a rather shallow fascination with external appearances?
Sign In or Register to comment.