So, the Apple Watch commands HALF of a fast growing market, while being the most expensive product in that market, and that is a BAD thing? Wow.
If you read the IDC report, you'll see that the smart watch market has decreased with 32%, so it is not at all a fast growing market. If these IDC figures are confirmed by other market watchers, one can only say that the hype of smart watch is over. I don't know how the Apple Watch figures should be before you call it a bad thing, but AFAIK this is not good news for Apple. Apparently all Apple fans got their watch but Apple fails to convince the normal iPhone user about the added value of the Apple Watch
I knew this would be IDC - this is going to be the same story as smartphones and tablets.
IDC's goal is to make their customers seem like they have a huge market-share, they do this by constantly redefining their definition of the market to suit the figure they're aiming for (often in hypocritical, inconsistent and vague way - such as by excluding cheap Chinese devices which are also for sale in the USA.) In this case you're having sub $50 devices which are frequently bundled/given-away/2 for 1, compared against bona fide sales of Apple Watches.
The result of this tactic is that the Apple watch appears to be losing market share by unit, yet by dollar their market share sky rockets. We're talking about ASP difference of nearly $500. It's misleading to categorise a $50 fitbit in the same product category as a fully-featured smartwatch that costs more than $500.
If Apple end up having 90%+ of profit in this space despite their market share, then its a sign that the market boundary is not correctly defined - at the end of the day there is no way to cut the figures to paint the apple watch as a failure and the competitors as a success. To date the apple watch is the only legitimately successful smart watch.
Waiting for v2. V1 has always been a dog in retrospect - just look at v1 iPhone or iPod or iPad. None of them are useful anymore. V2 - iPad is still around, iPhone 3G is relevant, iPad 2 as well. I am "forecasting" that Apple Watch v2 is going to get more traction due to reduced size, increased battery life and added connectivity and features.
The 2007 iPhone 9 (V1) was a "dog in retrospect"? It sounds like you didn't own one because compared to the mobile phones at the time, the original iPhone was revolutionary and disruptive; a game changer of the highest order. It was also a pleasure to use.
I challenge the ability of anybody to evaluate the market share of the Apple Watch, because most of the people and analyst is just unable to define what market the Apple Watch is targetting.
Is it a wearable (fighting against Fitbit) ? Is it a smart watch (fighting with Samsung gear) ?
Or is it a watch, more or less luxury, fighting against the swiss watch producers ?
Maurizio
PS: personally, i would vote for the third one.
Good find... If they are in fact 20% down, anyone have an idea how much any of that is already reflected in apples guidance for their earnings next week
It doesn't matter. Most ppl expect Apple to widely miss earnings next week, and the stock will be absolutely hammered. Earnings are trending down in their core product categories. The market responds to emotional tides, and the tide is very likely going out.
Comments
IDC's goal is to make their customers seem like they have a huge market-share, they do this by constantly redefining their definition of the market to suit the figure they're aiming for (often in hypocritical, inconsistent and vague way - such as by excluding cheap Chinese devices which are also for sale in the USA.) In this case you're having sub $50 devices which are frequently bundled/given-away/2 for 1, compared against bona fide sales of Apple Watches.
The result of this tactic is that the Apple watch appears to be losing market share by unit, yet by dollar their market share sky rockets. We're talking about ASP difference of nearly $500. It's misleading to categorise a $50 fitbit in the same product category as a fully-featured smartwatch that costs more than $500.