Samsung Galaxy Note 7 recall seen as a 'gift' to Apple and its iPhone 7 Plus launch

AppleInsiderAppleInsider
Posted:
in iPhone
The timing of Samsung's Galaxy Note 7 phablet recall could be a boon for Apple and this Friday's debut of the iPhone 7 Plus, one analyst believes, as preorder lead times are said to be on pace with expectations.




Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray said the exploding battery issue with Samsung's competing Galaxy Note 7 could provide a "slight tailwind" for Apple and sales of the iPhone 7 Plus. The issue has ballooned into a public relations crisis for Samsung, as the company issued a global recall for the device just before its primary competitor, the iPhone 7 Plus, was announced.

"The recall couldn't have come at a better time for Apple and worse time for Samsung," Munster wrote.

AppleInsider confirmed earlier Monday that some American Airlines and Delta flights have been instructing passengers to power down all Samsung phones -- not just the Note 7, despite the fact that it is believed to be the only affected device.




Last week, the Federal Aviation Administration issued a public statement warning passengers against using the Note 7 in flight, and the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission also urged all owners to turn off their device.

Separate from the Samsung issue, Munster has been tracking wait times on new iPhone 7 preorders.

As of Monday, customers who buy a 4.7-inch iPhone 7 are estimated to see a wait time of 1 to 2 weeks. That compares to waits of between 7 and 10 days at the same point for the iPhone 6 and iPhone 6s. But the iPhone 6s also had an extra week between its announcement and launch, providing Apple more time to build inventory and handle demand at launch.

Notably, the wait time for the iPhone 7 Plus as of Monday was just 2 to 3 weeks on average --?less than the wait time of 3 to 4 weeks for the iPhone 6 Plus and iPhone 6s Plus during the same point in preorders.

Munster believes the shorter wait times for this year's iPhone 7 Plus could be representative of the fact that Apple is producing greater quantities of the 5.5-inch model this year. The camera on the iPhone 7 Plus is a unique dual-lens system with optical zoom, while the smaller iPhone 7 continues to feature a single-lens camera without optical zoom.





For the duration of the iPhone 7 product cycle, Munster believes Apple will see sales grow 11 percent over the iPhone 6s product cycle.

The first indication of iPhone 7 performance will have to wait until Apple's next quarterly earnings report in October. Though Apple has historically announced opening weekend sales for a new model's debut, the company revealed last week that it will end that practice this year, citing the fact that demand outstrips supply at launch.

For more, see AppleInsider's hands-on look at the iPhone 7 from last week's media briefing in San Francisco.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 38
    SoliSoli Posts: 10,035member
    Are there really enough people who are on the fence between Android and iOS for this to make a difference? Wouldn't think customers just wait for a replacement battery (they are getting cheap loaners from carriers, I've read), or get a different Samsung device, or different Android-based device, first?
  • Reply 2 of 38
    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    The user and all related content has been deleted.
  • Reply 3 of 38
    EsquireCatsEsquireCats Posts: 1,268member
    This "gift" is grossly overstated.

    A product fault and recall harms the brand to the general population, the general population is less brand loyal. Thus switching behaviour from consumers will likely benefit other Android device makers first, then Apple second, due to platform stickiness.
    However as Android is dilute, their per-vendor gains will be small in comparison to Apple.

    The largest movements will be in price driven sales (fear) and mid-range sales (brand trust) to the general population, not buyers of flagship devices who are very brand loyal. (I.e. Sales of iPhone SE would see a gain, not so much the iPhone 7 Plus.)

    Finally: Since the Samsung Note is purchased by the most avid fans of Samsung devices - waiting for a replacement device is not going to sway them to another vendor, they're far too deep in cognitive dissonance to associate the battery issue with the brand.
    edited September 2016 calimacseekerDeelronbeowulfschmidtpscooter63magman1979watto_cobrajony0
  • Reply 4 of 38
    djames4242djames4242 Posts: 651member
    Soli said:
    Are there really enough people who are on the fence between Android and iOS for this to make a difference? Wouldn't think customers just wait for a replacement battery (they are getting cheap loaners from carriers, I've read), or get a different Samsung device, or different Android-based device, first?
    This is exactly what I was thinking. I doubt there's much crossover. I'm not likely ever switching from iOS to Android. Even if I didn't find Android to have a comparatively unusable UI, I have a large investment in apps and ecosystem that I have no desire to repurchase. Despite the fact that most Android users don't spend much money on apps, I still find it unlikely they'll jump ship just because one particular piece of hardware has a bad battery. And those who are still waiting to enter the world of Smartphones probably aren't going to be buying high-end phones like Notes or iPhones anyway.
  • Reply 5 of 38
    calicali Posts: 3,494member
    Man I wish this was a DED piece (no offense).
    macseeker
  • Reply 6 of 38
    hittrj01hittrj01 Posts: 753member
    EsquireCats said:
    This "gift" is grossly overstated.

    A product fault and recall harms the brand to the general population, the general population is less brand loyal. Thus switching behaviour from consumers will likely benefit other Android device makers first, then Apple second, due to platform stickiness.
    However as Android is dilute, their per-vendor gains will be small in comparison to Apple.

    The largest movements will be in price driven sales (fear) and mid-range sales (brand trust) to the general population, not buyers of flagship devices who are very brand loyal. (I.e. Sales of iPhone SE would see a gain, not so much the iPhone 7 Plus.)

    Finally: Since the Samsung Note is purchased by the most avid fans of Samsung devices - waiting for a replacement device is not going to sway them to another vendor, they're far too deep in cognitive dissonance to associate the battery issue with the brand.
    I think you're misunderstanding what the general population (i.e. not readers of tech blogs) thinks in their mind when they hear about this recall.  They hear Samsung Galaxy. The general population (again, think your parents, grandparents, average person shopping at the mall, etc.) doesn't associate the Galaxy S7 from the Galaxy Note 7, they just hear that Galaxy phones are blowing up and burning down cars and hotels, and that will make more of them stay away than would have previously.
    caligoodbyeranchDeelronSpamSandwichmobiusButidonttweetwatto_cobra
  • Reply 7 of 38
    applesauce007applesauce007 Posts: 1,698member
    I am hearing that Samsung Core phones are also catching fire.
    http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/Samsung-Phone-Lithium-Iron-Blow-Up-Child-Hand-Explosion-Brooklyn-New-York-393131791.html

    This is more than a gift to Apple, but I imagine it is Samsung's worst nightmare before the holidays.
    caliSpamSandwichpscooter63watto_cobra
  • Reply 8 of 38
    andrewj5790andrewj5790 Posts: 296member
    Soli said:
    Are there really enough people who are on the fence between Android and iOS for this to make a difference? Wouldn't think customers just wait for a replacement battery (they are getting cheap loaners from carriers, I've read), or get a different Samsung device, or different Android-based device, first?
    I don't think the bulk of consumers care to the level you or I do. They just see the Galaxy Note they were thinking of buying blows up, so they buy the iPhone instead.
    mmitsubainin
  • Reply 9 of 38
    calicali Posts: 3,494member
    applesauce007 said:
    I am hearing that Samsung Core phones are also catching fire.
    http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/Samsung-Phone-Lithium-Iron-Blow-Up-Child-Hand-Explosion-Brooklyn-New-York-393131791.html

    This is more than a gift to Apple, but I imagine it is Samsung's worst nightmare before the holidays.
    #bombgate

    warn everyone you know.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 10 of 38
    mmitsubaininmmitsubainin Posts: 3member
    hittrj01 said:
    EsquireCats said:
    This "gift" is grossly overstated.

    A product fault and recall harms the brand to the general population, the general population is less brand loyal. Thus switching behaviour from consumers will likely benefit other Android device makers first, then Apple second, due to platform stickiness.
    However as Android is dilute, their per-vendor gains will be small in comparison to Apple.

    The largest movements will be in price driven sales (fear) and mid-range sales (brand trust) to the general population, not buyers of flagship devices who are very brand loyal. (I.e. Sales of iPhone SE would see a gain, not so much the iPhone 7 Plus.)

    Finally: Since the Samsung Note is purchased by the most avid fans of Samsung devices - waiting for a replacement device is not going to sway them to another vendor, they're far too deep in cognitive dissonance to associate the battery issue with the brand.
    I think you're misunderstanding what the general population (i.e. not readers of tech blogs) thinks in their mind when they hear about this recall.  They hear Samsung Galaxy. The general population (again, think your parents, grandparents, average person shopping at the mall, etc.) doesn't associate the Galaxy S7 from the Galaxy Note 7, they just hear that Galaxy phones are blowing up and burning down cars and hotels, and that will make more of them stay away than would have previously.
    Agree completely hittrj01... I can see the "average mall person" remaining concerned about this long after all the devices are replaced.

    Similarly, I also have a few friends who are not hardcore Apple fanboys/girls but who never really considered anything other than an iPhone because that was just their default. A few I spoke to were very underwhelmed by the new iPhone, due to what you'd expect: the headphone jack removal, the fancier camera only being on the Plus, and the lack of any other innovation. Now might have been the time they would switch to something like a Samsung, many reviewers were calling the Note 7 the best phone out there before the recall. Now I'm hearing things like "I'll just try to keep my 6/6S going and see how the 7S is" or "I'll just get the 7, what's the worst that could happen? I don't want to wait around until they sort this recall out."
  • Reply 11 of 38
    aslo higgensaslo higgens Posts: 33member
    Required bedtime video:  https://www.periscope.tv/JohnLegere/1ypKdolYWBnxW

    iPhone 7 pre-orders 4X iPhone 6 at T-Mobile
    lordjohnwhorfinwatto_cobra
  • Reply 12 of 38
    michael_cmichael_c Posts: 164member
    Soli said:
    Are there really enough people who are on the fence between Android and iOS for this to make a difference? Wouldn't think customers just wait for a replacement battery (they are getting cheap loaners from carriers, I've read), or get a different Samsung device, or different Android-based device, first?
    My thoughts as well, but could see some in the android camp who weren't happy & finding this was enough to tilt the scales - but would think this would be significant only to those who were planning on upgrading this year, and we're already on the fence with android.
    cali
  • Reply 13 of 38
    EsquireCatsEsquireCats Posts: 1,268member
    hittrj01 said:
    EsquireCats said:
    This "gift" is grossly overstated.

    A product fault and recall harms the brand to the general population, the general population is less brand loyal. Thus switching behaviour from consumers will likely benefit other Android device makers first, then Apple second, due to platform stickiness.
    However as Android is dilute, their per-vendor gains will be small in comparison to Apple.

    The largest movements will be in price driven sales (fear) and mid-range sales (brand trust) to the general population, not buyers of flagship devices who are very brand loyal. (I.e. Sales of iPhone SE would see a gain, not so much the iPhone 7 Plus.)

    Finally: Since the Samsung Note is purchased by the most avid fans of Samsung devices - waiting for a replacement device is not going to sway them to another vendor, they're far too deep in cognitive dissonance to associate the battery issue with the brand.
    I think you're misunderstanding what the general population (i.e. not readers of tech blogs) thinks in their mind when they hear about this recall.  They hear Samsung Galaxy. The general population (again, think your parents, grandparents, average person shopping at the mall, etc.) doesn't associate the Galaxy S7 from the Galaxy Note 7, they just hear that Galaxy phones are blowing up and burning down cars and hotels, and that will make more of them stay away than would have previously.
    Following up: With all due respect I don't think you read my comment in full. I specifically call out fear based purchases - to help clarify these are general consumers (those parents and grand parents you mention) who will associate 'Samsung' with danger/shoddiness, this doesn't directly benefit Apple anymore than other vendors since their newly learnt behaviour is to *avoid* Samsung, not to specifically embrace another brand. To a smaller extent these are also the type of consumers who may be turned off by smartphones or tablets entirely due to a perceived danger. (For the most part these are not Apple-consumers, these are people who are price driven because they don't know the difference between brand A and brand B and end up being the buyer "victim" to those crappy phones and tablets that barely get used.)
    edited September 2016 beowulfschmidtpscooter63watto_cobra
  • Reply 14 of 38
    radarthekatradarthekat Posts: 3,842moderator
    What's not being considered is that,

    a) the ban on the use/charging of these phones on flights, (and maybe more/all Samsung models since it's too much effort to distinguish the Note 7 from other Samsung models while scanning from an airplane isle), may be in place for a long time, until the airlines are certain there are none of the defective phones still in circulation.  And how will that even be determined?

    b) considering the above, an owner of a recalled Note 7 will likely think, hmm, I don't want to swap this for another Note 7, as the airlines will not be able to distinguish that I have a non-defective unit, and therefore I'll still be subject to the embargo.  Better get something else.  Like an iPhone, for example, that won't attract scrutiny.


    edited September 2016 watto_cobra
  • Reply 15 of 38
    rezwitsrezwits Posts: 879member
    The timing is uncanny, absolute...
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 16 of 38
    calicali Posts: 3,494member

    aslo higgens said:
    Required bedtime video:  https://www.periscope.tv/JohnLegere/1ypKdolYWBnxW

    iPhone 7 pre-orders 4X iPhone 6 at T-Mobile
    Nice find!!

    He said iPhone 7 is their biggest launch ever.

    watto_cobra
  • Reply 17 of 38
    mmitsubaininmmitsubainin Posts: 3member
    EsquireCats said:

    ... this doesn't directly benefit Apple anymore than other vendors since their newly learnt behaviour is to *avoid* Samsung, not to specifically embrace another brand.
    You're neglecting current iPhone 6 and below users who are due for an upgrade but are bored with the iPhone or disenchanted with how lackluster the iPhone 7 appears. Samsung is easily the "gateway" Android phone for an iPhone user. There *are* people who are on the fence/disaffected who might have switched over, but now will likely just stick with Apple rather than deal with the hassle and (fair or not) stigma associated with the Note specifically and Samsung in general.
    cali
  • Reply 18 of 38
    hittrj01hittrj01 Posts: 753member
    EsquireCats said:
    hittrj01 said:
    EsquireCats said:
    This "gift" is grossly overstated.

    A product fault and recall harms the brand to the general population, the general population is less brand loyal. Thus switching behaviour from consumers will likely benefit other Android device makers first, then Apple second, due to platform stickiness.
    However as Android is dilute, their per-vendor gains will be small in comparison to Apple.

    The largest movements will be in price driven sales (fear) and mid-range sales (brand trust) to the general population, not buyers of flagship devices who are very brand loyal. (I.e. Sales of iPhone SE would see a gain, not so much the iPhone 7 Plus.)

    Finally: Since the Samsung Note is purchased by the most avid fans of Samsung devices - waiting for a replacement device is not going to sway them to another vendor, they're far too deep in cognitive dissonance to associate the battery issue with the brand.
    I think you're misunderstanding what the general population (i.e. not readers of tech blogs) thinks in their mind when they hear about this recall.  They hear Samsung Galaxy. The general population (again, think your parents, grandparents, average person shopping at the mall, etc.) doesn't associate the Galaxy S7 from the Galaxy Note 7, they just hear that Galaxy phones are blowing up and burning down cars and hotels, and that will make more of them stay away than would have previously.
    Following up: With all due respect I don't think you read my comment in full. I specifically call out fear based purchases - to help clarify these are general consumers (those parents and grand parents you mention) who will associate 'Samsung' with danger/shoddiness, this doesn't directly benefit Apple anymore than other vendors since their newly learnt behaviour is to *avoid* Samsung, not to specifically embrace another brand. To a smaller extent these are also the type of consumers who may be turned off by smartphones or tablets entirely due to a perceived danger. (For the most part these are not Apple-consumers, these are people who are price driven because they don't know the difference between brand A and brand B and end up being the buyer "victim" to those crappy phones and tablets that barely get used.)
    Thanks for the follow up, and I agree, it doesn't technically benefit Apple any more than LG, Motorola, or any other brand out there. But I keep coming back to what my wife thinks, or my mom thinks, or the countless number of people I used to interact with when I worked Geek Squad back in the day: In their eyes, there are really only two options, Samsung and Apple. Why? Those are the brands that are plastered all over the place. Almost all of the commercials are those two. Nearly all of the ads and "deals" at carriers and stores like Best Buy involve those two. The celebrities and athletes they watch on TV use pretty much only those two. Almost all of their friends and family have either a Galaxy phone or an iPhone. When it comes time for them to upgrade, this recall and threat of Galaxy phones blowing up will be lingering in the back of their mind, and Apple will have all of this built-up reputation of solidly built, reliable products with great support. Which one would they choose?
    caliwatto_cobra
  • Reply 19 of 38
    SpamSandwichSpamSandwich Posts: 33,407member
    applesauce007 said:
    I am hearing that Samsung Core phones are also catching fire.
    http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/Samsung-Phone-Lithium-Iron-Blow-Up-Child-Hand-Explosion-Brooklyn-New-York-393131791.html

    This is more than a gift to Apple, but I imagine it is Samsung's worst nightmare before the holidays.
    Sammy could be facing the Sharnado of all recalls of their dangerously defective phones.
    caliwatto_cobra
  • Reply 20 of 38
    fotoformatfotoformat Posts: 302member
    cali said:
    Man I wish this was a DED piece (no offense).

    I'm sure he's warming up to it! (no pun intended).
    cali
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