South Korean analysts expect 100 million iPhone 7 orders fulfilled by end of 2016

AppleInsider · September 20, 2016 1:14PM

A series of analysts from South Korea see only upsides for iPhone 7 component suppliers as a result of the Samsung Galaxy Note 7 recall, with one expecting to see over 100 million sales of Apple's new phone before the end of 2016.

"It is indisputable that the Galaxy Note 7 incident has become a huge plus for Apple," said IBK Investment & Securities analyst Lee Seung-woo. "The order to stop using the Galaxy Note 7 and continuous incidents of them exploding in the US likely have leaned US consumers towards the iPhone."

IBK earlier revealed that South Korean suppliers had orders for components to build 80 to 85 million iPhone 7 units. However, the investment firm also noted that orders had increased an additional 17 percent to 25 percent, pushing quantities over 100 million phones before the end of the year.

Song Eun-jeong from Hi Investment & Securities believes that Apple will seize the top position in the premium smartphone market on the strength of carrier promotions on the device since the recall of the Galaxy Note 7.

Following reports of battery "explosions" in the Galaxy Note 7, Samsung issued a voluntary recall worldwide for the device, and attracted criticism for poor execution of the device swap, as well as the long time it took to involve the U.S. Consumer Protection and Safety Commission. All customers who have purchased a Galaxy Note 7 will be able to swap the device for a new one -- but as of Tuesday, retail stores still have little if any replacement stock.

Sales of the Galaxy Note 7 will resume in the U.S. on Sept. 21.

The battery failures weren't the first issues identified by users of the Galaxy Note 7. Reviewers and YouTube examiners have noted that the Gorilla Glass 5 used for the screen of the device is significantly more susceptible to screen scratches than other smartphones, iPhone 7 family included.

Apple will not be announcing first-week sales of the iPhone 7 family. Analytics data suggests that the first weekend of iPhone 7 sales are on par with the iPhone 6s launch and ahead of the iPhone 5s launch week.

gatorguy · September 20, 2016 1:43PM

Apple was certainly handed a gift by Samsung. A much more valuable one too than the half-$B patent damages award Sammy paid them end of last year. Who needs lawsuits when Samsung is so good at shooting themselves in the foot?

lkrupp · September 20, 2016 1:45PM

Scenario: I'm a Samsung user and I want to buy the Note 7 but I will buy the iPhone 7 Plus instead because the Note 7 isn't available for a few weeks.

I don't accept that theory one little bit, not unless the battery fiasco has so severely damaged Samsung's reputation that I don't want to buy anything Samsung now. I don't accept that theory either.

anantksundaram · September 20, 2016 1:50PM

gatorguy said:

Apple was certainly handed a gift by Samsung. A much more valuable one too than the half-$B patent damages award Sammy paid them end of last year. Who needs lawsuits when Samsung is so good at shooting themselves in the foot?

Nonsense. There is no evidence of that. Period. (Don't bother linking to some analyst speculation or Bloomberg stories, etc.).

anantksundaram · September 20, 2016 1:52PM

The CEO of Sprint just finished an interview with CNBC. He said that iPhone 7 sales are off the charts, and -- if I heard him correctly -- that it was something like 5x the previous sales of any iPhone. (Can someone please verify the latter part? Actually, I just did -- I was able to rewind the program, and he said it was 5x).

EsquireCats · September 20, 2016 1:56PM

Make no mistake: Apple's success is not at the hand of Samsung's recall, in fact Samsung have very little effect on Apple's total sales in the market Apple competes (premium flagships):

Even if every single recalled Samsung Note user switched to iPhone, that would still be just 2.5M extra units.

Much more logically Apple will see significant sales due to a combination of the compelling features of iPhone 7 along with a spike afforded by the usual 2-year phone ownership cycle.

This analysts posturing only serves to suggest that Samsung out-competes Apple (it doesn't) - the overwelming majority of Samsung's smartphones are low range devices, which is why the likes of Xiaomi have been such a blow to Samsung's sales volumes.

gatorguy · September 20, 2016 2:04PM

lkrupp said:

Scenario: I'm a Samsung user and I want to buy the Note 7 but I will buy the iPhone 7 Plus instead because the Note 7 isn't available for a few weeks.

I don't accept that theory one little bit, not unless the battery fiasco has so severely damaged Samsung's reputation that I don't want to buy anything Samsung now. I don't accept that theory either.

But you may well buy a different Android device if you think you can't wait for a new Note 7 even if you wouldn't buy an iPhone for whatever reason. FWIW tho there's probably a significant percentage of potential buyers who don't consider themselves married to either Android or iOS exclusively and just wanting the best (in their opinion) smartphone they can get. Some frustrated Note 7 buyers will almost certainly opt for Apple while some may opt for a top-line device from some other Android OEM. How much is another 5M iPhones they might not have otherwise sold worth to Apple, particularly if they now become new Apple devotees? How much is a few million more LG or Moto or HTC worth to those companies? And that's not even getting into the fast-growing Chinese companies who were already making inroads.

gatorguy · September 20, 2016 2:10PM

anantksundaram said:

gatorguy said:

Apple was certainly handed a gift by Samsung. A much more valuable one too than the half-$B patent damages award Sammy paid them end of last year. Who needs lawsuits when Samsung is so good at shooting themselves in the foot?

Nonsense. There is no evidence of that. Period. (Don't bother linking to some analyst speculation or Bloomberg stories, etc.).

A link for you? Sorry, no links for you.

Who needs links when it's common sense.

There's going to be a number of smartphone buyers who will no longer consider the Note7, some instead going with Apple and some going with a different Android device. Either way Apple's biggest smartphone competitor is harmed much more than by a few $100M in patent damages. You're not thinking IMO. Sammy shot themselves in the foot big-time IMHO. With it all over the news lately there's long-term harm, far beyond the Note 7 battery incidents themselves.

tmay · September 20, 2016 2:16PM

gatorguy said:

Apple was certainly handed a gift by Samsung. A much more valuable one too than the half-$B patent damages award Sammy paid them end of last year. Who needs lawsuits when Samsung is so good at shooting themselves in the foot?

Apple doesn't make a phablet with a stylus, so very few Note buyers would be interested in the iPhone 7. My readings on a few other sites is that some current Note owners are taking cash in lieu of a replacement, and will wait for drastic price cuts once replacements are available, but otherwise, most will be happy with replacements.

In essence, the media has been pushing the meme that Apple would deliver an iPhone 7 without any notable innovation, which was always bullshit. No company would take a year long break due to keeping the housing another cycle. Development is a continuum that delivers on yearly cycles, and this cycle was no exception; Apple produced a superior iPhone, above and beyond Samsung's expectations. Samsung gave no gift other than highlighting and contrasting the iPhone 7 release with the Note debacle.

michael_c · September 20, 2016 2:20PM

lkrupp said:

Scenario: I'm a Samsung user and I want to buy the Note 7 but I will buy the iPhone 7 Plus instead because the Note 7 isn't available for a few weeks.

I don't accept that theory one little bit, not unless the battery fiasco has so severely damaged Samsung's reputation that I don't want to buy anything Samsung now. I don't accept that theory either.

Agree, in general - however, could see higher than normal number of "switchers" that were on the fence jumping ship from Android. Samsung, and Android users are not homogeneous. The majority of Samsung/Android users at this point in time are not going to switch for any reason, but some have been ready to try something different, and others are close. I can believe the ones who are close, but weren't yet there, migrating to IOS sooner than they would have due to this latest Samsung Snafu. Who knows how significant the numbers will be - most likely not the analysts.

radarthekat · September 20, 2016 2:20PM

lkrupp said:

Scenario: I'm a Samsung user and I want to buy the Note 7 but I will buy the iPhone 7 Plus instead because the Note 7 isn't available for a few weeks.

I don't accept that theory one little bit, not unless the battery fiasco has so severely damaged Samsung's reputation that I don't want to buy anything Samsung now. I don't accept that theory either.

Here's the actual scenario: I'm a Samsung user and I wanted to buy a Note 7 but now I realize that even after getting a corrected one, the airlines, trains, busses, subways won't be able to readily identify that mine is one that doesn't have the exploding battery issue and so will indiscriminately block me from charging/using my new Note 7 during my flight/trip/commute. Oh, hell no, I'll just buy something else!

gatorguy · September 20, 2016 2:22PM

tmay said:

gatorguy said:

Apple was certainly handed a gift by Samsung. A much more valuable one too than the half-$B patent damages award Sammy paid them end of last year. Who needs lawsuits when Samsung is so good at shooting themselves in the foot?

Apple doesn't make a phablet with a stylus, so very few Note buyers would be interested in the iPhone 7. My readings on a few other sites is that some current Note owners are taking cash in lieu of a replacement, and will wait for drastic price cuts once replacements are available, but otherwise, most will be happy with replacements.

In essence, the media has been pushing the meme that Apple would deliver an iPhone 7 without any notable innovation, which was always bullshit. No company would take a year long break due to keeping the housing another cycle. Development is a continuum that delivers on yearly cycles, and this cycle was no exception; Apple produced a superior iPhone, above and beyond Samsung's expectations. Samsung gave no gift other than highlighting and contrasting the iPhone 7 release with the Note debacle.

IMHO Apple received a huge gift, with big-time damage to their biggest competitor. As an added benefit there will almost certainly be a few new Apple fans resulting from the debacle. I'll guarantee some handset buyers see exploding Samsung batteries in the news (a LOT!) and don't connect it to just the Note 7. It's tarnished all new Samsung models and with "free" iPhone 7's being promoted at all the major US telcos and no Note 7 promos Apple is absolutely sure to benefit. Yup, Apple rec'd a gift.

thyl engelhardt · September 20, 2016 2:25PM

Buying the first smartphone may be an easy decision for some, more spontaneous folk. But in general, it is a decision for a certain OS and ecosystem, and hence, in fact a complex decision that -even if taken light hearted- cannot be reverted easily. So, I agree that settled Android users will not simply switch to iOS, and relearn everything, install dozens of apps, and reconfigure the interaction with their personal Computer, just because of a temporary battery issue.

tmay · September 20, 2016 2:39PM

gatorguy said:

tmay said:

gatorguy said:

Apple was certainly handed a gift by Samsung. A much more valuable one too than the half-$B patent damages award Sammy paid them end of last year. Who needs lawsuits when Samsung is so good at shooting themselves in the foot?

Apple doesn't make a phablet with a stylus, so very few Note buyers would be interested in the iPhone 7. My readings on a few other sites is that some current Note owners are taking cash in lieu of a replacement, and will wait for drastic price cuts once replacements are available, but otherwise, most will be happy with replacements.

In essence, the media has been pushing the meme that Apple would deliver an iPhone 7 without any notable innovation, which was always bullshit. No company would take a year long break due to keeping the housing another cycle. Development is a continuum that delivers on yearly cycles, and this cycle was no exception; Apple produced a superior iPhone, above and beyond Samsung's expectations. Samsung gave no gift other than highlighting and contrasting the iPhone 7 release with the Note debacle.

IMHO Apple received a huge gift, with big-time damage to their biggest competitor. As an added benefit there will almost certainly be a few new Apple fans resulting from the debacle. I'll guarantee some handset buyers see exploding Samsung batteries in the news (a LOT!) and don't connect it to just the Note 7. It's tarnished all new Samsung models and with "free" iPhone 7's being promoted at all the major US telcos and no Note 7 promos Apple is absolutely sure to benefit. Yup, Apple rec'd a gift.

You might be right about the widespread tarnishing of the brand. It's hard to know at this point, but the Note was purchased for the stylus, and those users will be hard pressed to find a substitute other than a replacement.

dick applebaum · September 20, 2016 2:44PM

tmay said:

gatorguy said:

Apple was certainly handed a gift by Samsung. A much more valuable one too than the half-$B patent damages award Sammy paid them end of last year. Who needs lawsuits when Samsung is so good at shooting themselves in the foot?

Apple doesn't make a phablet with a stylus, so very few Note buyers would be interested in the iPhone 7. My readings on a few other sites is that some current Note owners are taking cash in lieu of a replacement, and will wait for drastic price cuts once replacements are available, but otherwise, most will be happy with replacements.

In essence, the media has been pushing the meme that Apple would deliver an iPhone 7 without any notable innovation, which was always bullshit. No company would take a year long break due to keeping the housing another cycle. Development is a continuum that delivers on yearly cycles, and this cycle was no exception; Apple produced a superior iPhone, above and beyond Samsung's expectations. Samsung gave no gift other than highlighting and contrasting the iPhone 7 release with the Note debacle.

Well said!

gatorguy · September 20, 2016 2:47PM

tmay said:

gatorguy said:

tmay said:

gatorguy said:

Apple was certainly handed a gift by Samsung. A much more valuable one too than the half-$B patent damages award Sammy paid them end of last year. Who needs lawsuits when Samsung is so good at shooting themselves in the foot?

Apple doesn't make a phablet with a stylus, so very few Note buyers would be interested in the iPhone 7. My readings on a few other sites is that some current Note owners are taking cash in lieu of a replacement, and will wait for drastic price cuts once replacements are available, but otherwise, most will be happy with replacements.

In essence, the media has been pushing the meme that Apple would deliver an iPhone 7 without any notable innovation, which was always bullshit. No company would take a year long break due to keeping the housing another cycle. Development is a continuum that delivers on yearly cycles, and this cycle was no exception; Apple produced a superior iPhone, above and beyond Samsung's expectations. Samsung gave no gift other than highlighting and contrasting the iPhone 7 release with the Note debacle.

IMHO Apple received a huge gift, with big-time damage to their biggest competitor. As an added benefit there will almost certainly be a few new Apple fans resulting from the debacle. I'll guarantee some handset buyers see exploding Samsung batteries in the news (a LOT!) and don't connect it to just the Note 7. It's tarnished all new Samsung models and with "free" iPhone 7's being promoted at all the major US telcos and no Note 7 promos Apple is absolutely sure to benefit. Yup, Apple rec'd a gift.

You might be right about the widespread tarnishing of the brand. It's hard to know at this point, but the Note was purchased for the stylus, and those users will be hard pressed to find a substitute other than a replacement.

Most people just see "exploding Samsung batteries", rather than anything specific to the Note7. Who here hasn't heard "hey did you hear about Samsung phones exploding?".

Those devotees that actually spent time doing the research and understanding why the Note 7 benefited them most may well wait until the new batch is ready. IMHO that's not applicable to most Note 7 buyers. Have you ever stood around in one of the carrier stores and paid attention to how random folks there are choosing their phones? "Free" sells whether it really is or not. Perhaps some of those big "free iPhone" promotions might not have even happened had it not been for "exploding Samsung batteries". You sure won't find any free Note 7's at the moment in any carrier store AFAIK.

matrix077 · September 20, 2016 3:23PM

anantksundaram said:

The CEO of Sprint just finished an interview with CNBC. He said that iPhone 7 sales are off the charts, and -- if I heard him correctly -- that it was something like 5x the previous sales of any iPhone. (Can someone please verify the latter part? Actually, I just did -- I was able to rewind the program, and he said it was 5x).

That can't be possible with a boring, dull phone without headphone jack. What happens with the world?

matrix077 · September 20, 2016 3:26PM

EsquireCats said:

Make no mistake: Apple's success is not at the hand of Samsung's recall, in fact Samsung have very little effect on Apple's total sales in the market Apple competes (premium flagships):

Even if every single recalled Samsung Note user switched to iPhone, that would still be just 2.5M extra units.

Much more logically Apple will see significant sales due to a combination of the compelling features of iPhone 7 along with a spike afforded by the usual 2-year phone ownership cycle.

This analysts posturing only serves to suggest that Samsung out-competes Apple (it doesn't) - the overwelming majority of Samsung's smartphones are low range devices, which is why the likes of Xiaomi have been such a blow to Samsung's sales volumes.

Seriously I think iPhone sale boost comes from only one thing: new color.

(People already trust iPhone and believe it's THE phone but last year the 6s just lacked new color so people was just waiting and the sale dropped.)

gatorguy · September 20, 2016 3:40PM

matrix077 said:

EsquireCats said:

Make no mistake: Apple's success is not at the hand of Samsung's recall, in fact Samsung have very little effect on Apple's total sales in the market Apple competes (premium flagships):

Even if every single recalled Samsung Note user switched to iPhone, that would still be just 2.5M extra units.

Much more logically Apple will see significant sales due to a combination of the compelling features of iPhone 7 along with a spike afforded by the usual 2-year phone ownership cycle.

This analysts posturing only serves to suggest that Samsung out-competes Apple (it doesn't) - the overwelming majority of Samsung's smartphones are low range devices, which is why the likes of Xiaomi have been such a blow to Samsung's sales volumes.

Seriously I think iPhone sale boost comes from only one thing: new color.

(People already trust iPhone and believe it's THE phone but last year the 6s just lacked new color so people was just waiting and the sale dropped.)

That and the mirage of "free" iPhone 7's. Given the choice many, many buyers will leave the cash in their pocket and take the free deal.

suddenly newton · September 20, 2016 3:45PM

lkrupp said:

Scenario: I'm a Samsung user and I want to buy the Note 7 but I will buy the iPhone 7 Plus instead because the Note 7 isn't available for a few weeks.

I don't accept that theory one little bit, not unless the battery fiasco has so severely damaged Samsung's reputation that I don't want to buy anything Samsung now. I don't accept that theory either.

I simply don't believe that Samsung customers see Apple as the only alternative; of course it isn't. If you're used to the Android ecosystem, there a literally thousands of options to choose from. It's a feature called fragmentation.

anantksundaram · September 20, 2016 3:55PM

gatorguy said:

anantksundaram said:

gatorguy said:

Apple was certainly handed a gift by Samsung. A much more valuable one too than the half-$B patent damages award Sammy paid them end of last year. Who needs lawsuits when Samsung is so good at shooting themselves in the foot?

Nonsense. There is no evidence of that. Period. (Don't bother linking to some analyst speculation or Bloomberg stories, etc.).

A link for you? Sorry, no links for you. Who needs links when it's common sense.

There's going to be a number of smartphone buyers who will no longer consider the Note7, some instead going with Apple and some going with a different Android device. Either way Apple's biggest smartphone competitor is harmed much more than by a few $100M in patent damages. You're not thinking IMO. Sammy shot themselves in the foot big-time IMHO. With it all over the news lately there's long-term harm, far beyond the Note 7 battery incidents themselves.

Self-defined "common sense" is just that: self-defined.

In any event, it is a silly counterfactual that can't be proved one way or the other. It looks like your daily meme of "let me see what I can do today casually and deftly minimize Apple's achievements...".

South Korean analysts expect 100 million iPhone 7 orders fulfilled by end of 2016

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