I've got a lousy hunch Apple is going to under-perform all other tech stocks as far as share gains again in 2016, including Microsoft. All of Apple's value seems to hang upon how many iPhones can be sold and this year isn't going to cut it. Why can't Apple manage to diversify like other tech companies? It's almost certain Apple isn't going to make any major acquisitions and it will probably need to in order to boost the value of the company. I'm not blaming Apple for not being able to sell more iPhones because I know the smartphone market is mostly saturated. I just don't understand why they didn't start a cloud computing business like all the other tech companies did. Wall Street seems to think that every company with cloud services is going to do well and that leaves Apple out in the cold. It's just that the other tech companies make gains so easily while Apple struggles just to gain a $1 in a week. It seems so odd how Apple always comes out on the bottom as far as the big investors are concerned. Apple should at least try to do something to attract investors other than trying to sell more iPhones. Of all the major tech companies only Apple can't lose the doom and gloom surrounding the company. There has to be a reason for that.
The cloud is a low margin business at best. Not Apple's forte, especially with their commitment to user privacy.
What you you have to remember is that for every braying ass, there are another dozen investors who are fine with Apple's long term style.
Let me just throw my 2 cents in. I just got my iPhone 7 Plus last night. I am upgrading from an iPhone 6. While I am very happy with my new phone, I upgraded mainly because I wanted a larger phone. If I had the iPhone 6 Plus, I would not have upgraded. The new features are wonderful, but they're not enough to make me have wanted to upgrade if I already had a Plus. My phone cost almost as much as my MacBook Air did, and so I will be more hesitant to upgrade in the future. Unless next year's phone blows me away, I will keep this phone for at least 3 years, possibly even longer.
Thank you, allow me to join you and your 2 cents, I own a 6 plus and I'm not interested in anything about the 7 plus other then perhaps the upgraded camera, but not at $870.
When AT&T eliminated the two year contract option, they eliminated quite a few purchasers who will be reluctant to pay full price for an iPhone which doesn't greatly surpass the capabilities of their previous iPhone. I'd gladly purchase the iPhone 7 plus on a two year contract for $399, but that option is no longer available, my iPhone 6 plus is more then adequate for my particular needs, I'll wait for a groundbreaking iPhone 8 plus, or I'll stand pat thank you...
And WE, the using and comsuming and paying public believe YOU are a liar. Since sles has not and will not be released by Apple, that neans you made this data up . Just made it up out of thin air. You have no opinion about any of thIs that's credible. So, GO AWAY.
The stupidest part of this "Growth Economy" is that in general, most products that companies make, are created, released, and sold. They don't get improved versions or next generations, they just get consumed and more quantities gets made to fulfill more requests, end of story. These people just want the gravy train to just keep running and pouring money, or else things are a failure. It's all GREED. Because where are all of your profits you got in the last 10 years, aren't you happy yet? Did you spend it all ready? Can't survive like a normal American citizen? Nah you want MORE! I laugh so hard...
In my opinion, there should be a retraction story and a headline each and every time one of these analysts gets it wrong.
What's the time frame for their prediction that they pulled out of their ass?
2 weeks? 2 months? 6 months?
When that time has passed, their prediction will either have turned out to be true or false. And if they are wrong, then a new article should be made and posted which states that fact, which revisits their earlier ridiculous prediction and also ridicules their false prediction, for the sake of transparency.
No one will buy the 6s, it's too similar to the 6. No one will buy the 7, it's too similar to the 6s.
And yet the most accurate sales guidance has always been from Apple's quarterly meetings... funny that.
As the song by 'The Who' says (modified for here)
"meet the new phone, same as the old phone".
That's what Kuo has been saying and won't risk losing face (a big problem in Asia) by saying that he was wrong. So he tries to weasle himself out of having to do that. The Note 7 thing is a very weak excuse but it saves his reputation and that is what it is all about.
I'd love for him to say nothing for a year and honestly, the world would be a better place.
Any half-assed analysis of iPhone 6S sales will immediately pick up on the fact that FQ1/2016 iPhone ASP was LOWER than the lowest priced iPhone 6S. How can this be? Its because the discounted 2nd tier iPhone 6 was still selling very strongly.Historically 2nd and 3rd tier iPhones account for about 20% of iPhones sold in any particular quarter. During FQ1/2016 that percentage went up dramatically Kuo is comparing iPhone 7 sales to iPhone 6S sales and determining that iPhone 7 sales are less than iPhone 6S sales when the truth is that actual iPhone 6S sales were measurably less than iPhone 6 sales. He then increases his iPhone 7 sales estimate to 72 million to 75 million, which contradicts his earlier statement.
I'm not interested in how many iPhone 7s Apple sells. I'm interested in how many iPhones IN TOTAL Apple sells. If Apple only sells 69 million I'm ignoring the hopelessly contradictory WS reports/estimates of iPhone 7 sales.
For me, I'm taking the average bi-annual growth rate from the prior 3 years,
iPhone 5S over iPhone 4s bi-annual growth rate = 37.74% iPhone 6 over iPhone 5 bi-annual growth rate = 55.83% iPhone 6S over iPhone 5s bi-annual growth rate = 46.55%
and reducing it by 2 standard deviations and a factor to account for FX headwinds to formulate my total iPhone unit sales estimate for the December quarter. My total iPhone unit sales estimate for the December quarter is 91.960 million units.
My iPhone 7 over iPhone 6 estimated bi-annual growth rate = 23.49%. Note that the iPhone 7 bi-annual growth rate is about half the average of the prior 3 years and less than the lowest of those 3 years. Also note that neither of the sample years had an iPhone SE offering.
When thinking of why people upgrade it should be kept in mind that the 3 most important reasons to upgrade are: #1. Battery. A 2 year old battery only recharges to about 60% of its original capacity. #2. Camera. There is no doubt that the dual lens camera is far superior to the camera in the iPhone 6. Camera software in either iPhone is superior to any prior iPhone. #3. Storage. The iPhone 7 has double the storage of any previous iPhone. Then there's consumer feature wish lists. Number one on that list is WATER RESISTANCE.
No matter what the nattering nabobs of negativity say, the iPhone 7 nailed to reasons that drive consumer upgrades, and we haven't even addressed switchers (ignoring the exploding Note 7 issue).
This is close to incoherent.... The number they were floating initially was 80-100M... the 6s sold 80M I think and 78M for the 6, mostly because the China sales were displaced to after the new years. The numbers will likely be close to 6s, maybe slightly higher with a much higher ASP (128G 7+ being in such demand).
FQ1/2015 (first full quarter of iPhone 6) total iPhone unit sales were 74.468 million FQ1/2016 (first full quarter of iPhone 6S) total iPhone unit sales were 74.779 million
For both periods there were 13 weeks in the quarter. For FQ1/2017 (first full quarter of iPhone 7) there will be 14 selling weeks in the quarter.
If Apple only sells the average (essentially zero weekly growth) units of the iPhone 6 and iPhone 6S during the upcoming December quarter it will sell 80.364 million iPhones, and that's not counting the impact of the iPhone SE, which was not available during the 2 prior December periods.
Additionally, A[[;e os launching the iPhone 7 in about 30 additional markets this quarter than they did last year
When AT&T eliminated the two year contract option, they eliminated quite a few purchasers who will be reluctant to pay full price for an iPhone which doesn't greatly surpass the capabilities of their previous iPhone.
The carrier contract was replaced with an installment plan that offers much more upgrade flexibility than the carrier contract did, at a lower price.
I compared the camera quality between 7 and 6s (not Plus series) and have found that 6S is far much better with selfie. I mean way much better. iPhone 7 is actually a step backward in camera quality. I found image quality to be worse on 7. Consumer Reports said that they couldn't find improvements over 6S... but I can say that from my examination of both devices that 7 is significantly worse.
The home button on 7 feels weird. 6s feels more natural.
Definitely not recommending 7 to anyone... I'd just tell them to get 6s.
Your examination? LOL. No more comment, Mr. Subjective.
Let me just throw my 2 cents in. I just got my iPhone 7 Plus last night. I am upgrading from an iPhone 6. While I am very happy with my new phone, I upgraded mainly because I wanted a larger phone. If I had the iPhone 6 Plus, I would not have upgraded. The new features are wonderful, but they're not enough to make me have wanted to upgrade if I already had a Plus. My phone cost almost as much as my MacBook Air did, and so I will be more hesitant to upgrade in the future. Unless next year's phone blows me away, I will keep this phone for at least 3 years, possibly even longer.
Thank you, allow me to join you and your 2 cents, I own a 6 plus and I'm not interested in anything about the 7 plus other then perhaps the upgraded camera, but not at $870.
When AT&T eliminated the two year contract option, they eliminated quite a few purchasers who will be reluctant to pay full price for an iPhone which doesn't greatly surpass the capabilities of their previous iPhone. I'd gladly purchase the iPhone 7 plus on a two year contract for $399, but that option is no longer available, my iPhone 6 plus is more then adequate for my particular needs, I'll wait for a groundbreaking iPhone 8 plus, or I'll stand pat thank you...
Trust me, if you have 6+ like me, you want to upgrade. Beside the big screen, 6+ performance is quite not up to the task at this point. Try to upload a picture file to AI from mobile app and you will see. It crashes every time. That's why you need more than 1GB of RAM nowadays. I'm upgrading to 7 this year with ATT Free iPhone 7 program with 6+ trade in. Since I'll stay with ATT in the next few years anyway, it's considered a great upgrade $769-$649 = $120/24mo...yup $5/mo.
I compared the camera quality between 7 and 6s (not Plus series) and have found that 6S is far much better with selfie. I mean way much better. iPhone 7 is actually a step backward in camera quality. I found image quality to be worse on 7. Consumer Reports said that they couldn't find improvements over 6S... but I can say that from my examination of both devices that 7 is significantly worse.
The home button on 7 feels weird. 6s feels more natural.
Definitely not recommending 7 to anyone... I'd just tell them to get 6s.
Your examination? LOL. No more comment, Mr. Subjective.
From my experience, there's no comparison between the images of my previous 6s and my new 7. The 7 displays far more vibrant colors and sharper images.
Facts: 1) In many parts of the world, phones are bought on two year contracts. In those places, all who bought Apple's first large screen iPhones are up for renewal this cycle. 2) Many are interested in the Plus size, more than usual, because of the longer lens, a holy grail in smartphone camera tech. More high end sales means more profit. 3) Years ago I heard "I have a Samsung because iPhones are too small" more recently I heard "I have a Samsung because they're water resistant" iPhone 7 water resistance will entice more users to switch, and justify upgrades for older users "I killed my last phone with water, now that won't happen" 4) iPhone 7 is a HUGE performance increase over the two year old devices. 2x CPU, 3x GPU, faster flash NAND, faster TouchID (same as 6s) it's a big step up if people notice. 5) The best cameras in an iPhone image stabilisation for great low light shots on the 4.7" for the first time. 6) Two new colours!! Black and more black. Black is a colour that appeals to tech heads, early adopters, and normal consumers alike. Black goes with anything.
Yeah, no one will want these new phones.
I have previously upgraded every year. I skipped the 6S Plus for the first time. No way I'm skipping the 7 Plus. It's a beast compared to my 6 Plus. And it was next to impossible to get this early on, many I know still have shipping etas over a month away.
T-Mobile Chief Executive John Legere declared demand for the iPhone 7 a "phenomenon," and said that preorders up to Sept. 12 had been "like four times bigger than the iPhone 6."
In addition, the CEO of Sprint said that demand for the 7 is "5x" that of iPhone 6.
I think AI should tell us a bit more about the process by which Kuo arrived at his estimate of demand, more than just "Kuo thinks..." Until then, I'll assume that it is utter bullshit.
Kuo is comparing to the 6S, Sprint and T-Mobile compared to the 6. Big difference.
I'll sum it up for you - You don't really understand investment versus short term and you should probably stick to tech and leave finance and securities alone.
I'll go own step further. Fuck Keynesianism, fuck currency by fiat, and fuck the Federal Reserve. Until they are gone, no economic policy is sane.
It was a calculated risk. Take more time to deliver a great all new phone and face this backlash, or rush out a new design for the sake of appearances. They chose to deliver a refined iPhone 6 and take the heat. For that I give major props to Cook. He has balls.
How do we know these were Apple's only choices? Back when we did get a new aesthetic design every two years I don't remember anyone saying Apple was rushing out a new design for the sake of appearances. And I doubt refining the iPhone 6 design took more time. The reason we have Jet Black is because Apple knew they would need something "new" to market this phone. Just a better camera isn't enough. The 7 is a great phone. But so is the 6S and the 6. It would not be surprising to me that people upgrade less frequently because the phone they have in their pocket is really good and the YOY improvements aren't as big as they were 3-4 years ago.
Let me just throw my 2 cents in. I just got my iPhone 7 Plus last night. I am upgrading from an iPhone 6. While I am very happy with my new phone, I upgraded mainly because I wanted a larger phone. If I had the iPhone 6 Plus, I would not have upgraded. The new features are wonderful, but they're not enough to make me have wanted to upgrade if I already had a Plus. My phone cost almost as much as my MacBook Air did, and so I will be more hesitant to upgrade in the future. Unless next year's phone blows me away, I will keep this phone for at least 3 years, possibly even longer.
Thank you, allow me to join you and your 2 cents, I own a 6 plus and I'm not interested in anything about the 7 plus other then perhaps the upgraded camera, but not at $870.
When AT&T eliminated the two year contract option, they eliminated quite a few purchasers who will be reluctant to pay full price for an iPhone which doesn't greatly surpass the capabilities of their previous iPhone. I'd gladly purchase the iPhone 7 plus on a two year contract for $399, but that option is no longer available, my iPhone 6 plus is more then adequate for my particular needs, I'll wait for a groundbreaking iPhone 8 plus, or I'll stand pat thank you...
We're AT&T customers and all but one of the 5 in our household bought 6S iPhones last year on the Apple Upgrade Program. The 1 remaining person had a year to go on her AT&T contract on a iPhone 6.
She ordered an iPhone 7S 256GB Black, Unlocked, AppleCare, through the online store. the total out-of-pocket cost, for a maxed out iPhone 7S selling for $969, under the upgrade program was $132.96:
$87.21 Tax on $969.00 $45.75 First Payment $0.00 Shipping ------------------------------ $132.96 Total
She can upgrade after 12 payments by paying the tax and first payment on a new iPhone, rinse & repeat!
Any half-assed analysis of iPhone 6S sales will immediately pick up on the fact that FQ1/2016 iPhone ASP was LOWER than the lowest priced iPhone 6S. How can this be? Its because the discounted 2nd tier iPhone 6 was still selling very strongly.Historically 2nd and 3rd tier iPhones account for about 20% of iPhones sold in any particular quarter. During FQ1/2016 that percentage went up dramatically Kuo is comparing iPhone 7 sales to iPhone 6S sales and determining that iPhone 7 sales are less than iPhone 6S sales when the truth is that actual iPhone 6S sales were measurably less than iPhone 6 sales. He then increases his iPhone 7 sales estimate to 72 million to 75 million, which contradicts his earlier statement.
I'm not interested in how many iPhone 7s Apple sells. I'm interested in how many iPhones IN TOTAL Apple sells. If Apple only sells 69 million I'm ignoring the hopelessly contradictory WS reports/estimates of iPhone 7 sales.
For me, I'm taking the average bi-annual growth rate from the prior 3 years,
iPhone 5S over iPhone 4s bi-annual growth rate = 37.74% iPhone 6 over iPhone 5 bi-annual growth rate = 55.83% iPhone 6S over iPhone 5s bi-annual growth rate = 46.55%
and reducing it by 2 standard deviations and a factor to account for FX headwinds to formulate my total iPhone unit sales estimate for the December quarter. My total iPhone unit sales estimate for the December quarter is 91.960 million units.
My iPhone 7 over iPhone 6 estimated bi-annual growth rate = 23.49%. Note that the iPhone 7 bi-annual growth rate is about half the average of the prior 3 years and less than the lowest of those 3 years. Also note that neither of the sample years had an iPhone SE offering.
When thinking of why people upgrade it should be kept in mind that the 3 most important reasons to upgrade are: #1. Battery. A 2 year old battery only recharges to about 60% of its original capacity. #2. Camera. There is no doubt that the dual lens camera is far superior to the camera in the iPhone 6. Camera software in either iPhone is superior to any prior iPhone. #3. Storage. The iPhone 7 has double the storage of any previous iPhone. Then there's consumer feature wish lists. Number one on that list is WATER RESISTANCE.
No matter what the nattering nabobs of negativity say, the iPhone 7 nailed to reasons that drive consumer upgrades, and we haven't even addressed switchers (ignoring the exploding Note 7 issue).
Good points, all -- especially the last paragraph! -- an effete snob
Comments
What you you have to remember is that for every braying ass, there are another dozen investors who are fine with Apple's long term style.
When AT&T eliminated the two year contract option, they eliminated quite a few purchasers who will be reluctant to pay full price for an iPhone which doesn't greatly surpass the capabilities of their previous iPhone. I'd gladly purchase the iPhone 7 plus on a two year contract for $399, but that option is no longer available, my iPhone 6 plus is more then adequate for my particular needs, I'll wait for a groundbreaking iPhone 8 plus, or I'll stand pat thank you...
What's the time frame for their prediction that they pulled out of their ass?
2 weeks? 2 months? 6 months?
When that time has passed, their prediction will either have turned out to be true or false. And if they are wrong, then a new article should be made and posted which states that fact, which revisits their earlier ridiculous prediction and also ridicules their false prediction, for the sake of transparency.
"meet the new phone, same as the old phone".
That's what Kuo has been saying and won't risk losing face (a big problem in Asia) by saying that he was wrong. So he tries to weasle himself out of having to do that. The Note 7 thing is a very weak excuse but it saves his reputation and that is what it is all about.
I'd love for him to say nothing for a year and honestly, the world would be a better place.
Any half-assed analysis of iPhone 6S sales will immediately pick up on the fact that FQ1/2016 iPhone ASP was LOWER than the lowest priced iPhone 6S. How can this be? Its because the discounted 2nd tier iPhone 6 was still selling very strongly.Historically 2nd and 3rd tier iPhones account for about 20% of iPhones sold in any particular quarter. During FQ1/2016 that percentage went up dramatically Kuo is comparing iPhone 7 sales to iPhone 6S sales and determining that iPhone 7 sales are less than iPhone 6S sales when the truth is that actual iPhone 6S sales were measurably less than iPhone 6 sales. He then increases his iPhone 7 sales estimate to 72 million to 75 million, which contradicts his earlier statement.
I'm not interested in how many iPhone 7s Apple sells. I'm interested in how many iPhones IN TOTAL Apple sells. If Apple only sells 69 million I'm ignoring the hopelessly contradictory WS reports/estimates of iPhone 7 sales.
For me, I'm taking the average bi-annual growth rate from the prior 3 years,
iPhone 5S over iPhone 4s bi-annual growth rate = 37.74%
iPhone 6 over iPhone 5 bi-annual growth rate = 55.83%
iPhone 6S over iPhone 5s bi-annual growth rate = 46.55%
and reducing it by 2 standard deviations and a factor to account for FX headwinds to formulate my total iPhone unit sales estimate for the December quarter. My total iPhone unit sales estimate for the December quarter is 91.960 million units.
My iPhone 7 over iPhone 6 estimated bi-annual growth rate = 23.49%. Note that the iPhone 7 bi-annual growth rate is about half the average of the prior 3 years and less than the lowest of those 3 years. Also note that neither of the sample years had an iPhone SE offering.
When thinking of why people upgrade it should be kept in mind that the 3 most important reasons to upgrade are:
#1. Battery. A 2 year old battery only recharges to about 60% of its original capacity.
#2. Camera. There is no doubt that the dual lens camera is far superior to the camera in the iPhone 6. Camera software in either iPhone is superior to any prior iPhone.
#3. Storage. The iPhone 7 has double the storage of any previous iPhone. Then there's consumer feature wish lists. Number one on that list is WATER RESISTANCE.
No matter what the nattering nabobs of negativity say, the iPhone 7 nailed to reasons that drive consumer upgrades, and we haven't even addressed switchers (ignoring the exploding Note 7 issue).
FQ1/2015 (first full quarter of iPhone 6) total iPhone unit sales were 74.468 million
FQ1/2016 (first full quarter of iPhone 6S) total iPhone unit sales were 74.779 million
For both periods there were 13 weeks in the quarter. For FQ1/2017 (first full quarter of iPhone 7) there will be 14 selling weeks in the quarter.
If Apple only sells the average (essentially zero weekly growth) units of the iPhone 6 and iPhone 6S during the upcoming December quarter it will sell 80.364 million iPhones, and that's not counting the impact of the iPhone SE, which was not available during the 2 prior December periods.
Additionally, A[[;e os launching the iPhone 7 in about 30 additional markets this quarter than they did last year
Public research notes are horribly incomplete.
The carrier contract was replaced with an installment plan that offers much more upgrade flexibility than the carrier contract did, at a lower price.
1. The iPhone 7 can be had for free on several carriers.
2. Apple has their yearly upgrade plan.
3. Multiple carriers now also have their yearly upgrade plans.
At worse case it'll be even.
1) In many parts of the world, phones are bought on two year contracts. In those places, all who bought Apple's first large screen iPhones are up for renewal this cycle.
2) Many are interested in the Plus size, more than usual, because of the longer lens, a holy grail in smartphone camera tech. More high end sales means more profit.
3) Years ago I heard "I have a Samsung because iPhones are too small" more recently I heard "I have a Samsung because they're water resistant" iPhone 7 water resistance will entice more users to switch, and justify upgrades for older users "I killed my last phone with water, now that won't happen"
4) iPhone 7 is a HUGE performance increase over the two year old devices. 2x CPU, 3x GPU, faster flash NAND, faster TouchID (same as 6s) it's a big step up if people notice.
5) The best cameras in an iPhone image stabilisation for great low light shots on the 4.7" for the first time.
6) Two new colours!! Black and more black. Black is a colour that appeals to tech heads, early adopters, and normal consumers alike. Black goes with anything.
Yeah, no one will want these new phones.
I have previously upgraded every year. I skipped the 6S Plus for the first time. No way I'm skipping the 7 Plus. It's a beast compared to my 6 Plus. And it was next to impossible to get this early on, many I know still have shipping etas over a month away.
She ordered an iPhone 7S 256GB Black, Unlocked, AppleCare, through the online store. the total out-of-pocket cost, for a maxed out iPhone 7S selling for $969, under the upgrade program was $132.96:
$87.21 Tax on $969.00
$45.75 First Payment
$0.00 Shipping
------------------------------
$132.96 Total
She can upgrade after 12 payments by paying the tax and first payment on a new iPhone, rinse & repeat!
Might I suggest that you're Buying it Wrong!
Good points, all -- especially the last paragraph!
-- an effete snob