KGI: iPhone 7 won't sell as well as the iPhone 6s

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Comments

  • Reply 41 of 80
    So did T-Mobile steal a lot of customers due to their friendly purchasing plan or was this a pattern with Verizon and att as well 
  • Reply 42 of 80
    badmonkbadmonk Posts: 1,090member
    Facts:
    1) In many parts of the world, phones are bought on two year contracts. In those places, all who bought Apple's first large screen iPhones are up for renewal this cycle. 
    2) Many are interested in the Plus size, more than usual, because of the longer lens, a holy grail in smartphone camera tech. More high end sales means more profit. 
    3) Years ago I heard "I have a Samsung because iPhones are too small" more recently I heard "I have a Samsung because they're water resistant" iPhone 7 water resistance will entice more users to switch, and justify upgrades for older users "I killed my last phone with water, now that won't happen"
    4) iPhone 7 is a HUGE performance increase over the two year old devices. 2x CPU, 3x GPU, faster flash NAND, faster TouchID (same as 6s) it's a big step up if people notice. 
    5) The best cameras in an iPhone image stabilisation for great low light shots on the 4.7" for the first time. 
    6) Two new colours!! Black and more black. Black is a colour that appeals to tech heads, early adopters, and normal consumers alike. Black goes with anything. 

    Yeah, no one will want these new phones. 

    I have previously upgraded every year. I skipped the 6S Plus for the first time. No way I'm skipping the 7 Plus. It's a beast compared to my 6 Plus. And it was next to impossible to get this early on, many I know still have shipping etas over a month away. 
    and #7) it's not a Galaxy Note 7.  I flew on Delta Airlines yesterday.  They called out the GN7 by name and told customers that it had to be powered off during the flight.  They also said they had already had one inflight fire due to the device.  This line will not change after the recall because they will not have time to look to see which battery icon is displayed on the phone.
    netmageai46watto_cobra
  • Reply 43 of 80

    Paraphrasing Yogi Berra:  Nobody is buying the iPhone 7 -- there's too much demand!

    netmagepscooter63brucemcai46tallest skilpalomine
  • Reply 44 of 80
    danny602 said:
    guscat said:
    Let me just throw my 2 cents in. I just got my iPhone 7 Plus last night. I am upgrading from an iPhone 6. While I am very happy with my new phone, I upgraded mainly because I wanted a larger phone. If I had the iPhone 6 Plus, I would not have upgraded. The new features are wonderful, but they're not enough to make me have wanted to upgrade if I already had a Plus. My phone cost almost as much as my MacBook Air did, and so I will be more hesitant to upgrade in the future. Unless next year's phone blows me away, I will keep this phone for at least 3 years, possibly even longer.
    Thank you, allow me to join you and your 2 cents, I own a 6 plus and I'm not interested in anything about the 7 plus other then perhaps the upgraded camera, but not at $870.

    When AT&T eliminated the two year contract option, they eliminated quite a few purchasers who will be reluctant to pay full price for an iPhone which doesn't greatly surpass the capabilities of their previous iPhone. I'd gladly purchase the iPhone 7 plus on a two year contract for $399, but that option is no longer available, my iPhone 6 plus is more then adequate for my particular needs, I'll wait for a groundbreaking iPhone 8 plus, or I'll stand pat thank you...
    I'll join both of you and add 4 cents.  I felt the same as guscat, no intention of paying for an iPhone 7 when I was pretty happy still with my 6 16gb.  But I switched to T-mobile a few months ago and they had a promotion thanks to which I traded in the 6 and got a 32gb 7 for $0/month.  Too bad I can't get a 2-year contract after paying a few hundred, right?  On top of that, I get unlimited data, and I got free texting and data while traveling in Japan last month (the reason I switched from AT&T in the first place).

    Having done the upgrade, I am very happy with the 7.  I certainly like more storage.  I like the speed.  The taptic home button is actually just fine, especially since TouchID is a bit faster.  The little taptic thing makes it feel very much like you really are pressing a button.  It's only when the phone is flat on a hard surface that you can really tell.
  • Reply 45 of 80
    netrox said:
    I compared the camera quality between 7 and 6s  (not Plus series) and have found that 6S is far much better with selfie. I mean way much better. iPhone 7 is actually a step backward in camera quality. I found image quality to be worse on 7. Consumer Reports said that they couldn't find improvements over 6S... but I can say that from my examination of both devices that 7 is significantly worse. 

    The home button on 7 feels weird. 6s feels more natural. 

    Definitely not recommending 7 to anyone... I'd just tell them to get 6s. 


    for eternity? good luck with that. 

    the cameras are better. and the new home button is neat, the haptic feedback doesn't bother me at all (i prefer it set to level 1). def worth the water resistance. 
    ai46watto_cobra
  • Reply 46 of 80
    revenant said:
    artificial scarcity- as in Apple did it on purpose to make it seem like it sold out fast? 

    I know diamonds have an artificial scarcity- I doubt apple is doing that.
    yeah that was a BS quote. if supply is short there's nothing artificial about that. it's as if these bozos think apple can wave a wand and conjure more inventory. 
    ai46
  • Reply 47 of 80

    I've got a lousy hunch Apple is going to under-perform all other tech stocks as far as share gains again in 2016, including Microsoft. All of Apple's value seems to hang upon how many iPhones can be sold and this year isn't going to cut it. Why can't Apple manage to diversify like other tech companies? It's almost certain Apple isn't going to make any major acquisitions and it will probably need to in order to boost the value of the company. I'm not blaming Apple for not being able to sell more iPhones because I know the smartphone market is mostly saturated. I just don't understand why they didn't start a cloud computing business like all the other tech companies did. Wall Street seems to think that every company with cloud services is going to do well and that leaves Apple out in the cold. It's just that the other tech companies make gains so easily while Apple struggles just to gain a $1 in a week. It seems so odd how Apple always comes out on the bottom as far as the big investors are concerned. Apple should at least try to do something to attract investors other than trying to sell more iPhones. Of all the major tech companies only Apple can't lose the doom and gloom surrounding the company. There has to be a reason for that.
    the answers are simple -- because apple manages itself to delight the customer and make profit. it does not manage itself to play the market. that would be stupid. 

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/stevedenning/2011/11/28/maximizing-shareholder-value-the-dumbest-idea-in-the-world/
    edited September 2016
  • Reply 48 of 80
    tommikele said:
    safi said:
    The desire for constant growth needs to stop. Let Apple work out what it has to do and stop this ridiculous grow grow grow culture. Yes, I believe it probably won't sell as well as the 6S but this is a sign of strength for Apple. Rather than coming out with another gimmick design to boost sales, the company puts in thought and effort and withholds new products until they are perfect! Which other company does this? For fucks sake, leave Apple alone. I wish it would just become a private company and ditch these greedy leaches AKA shareholders. Cook/Ive are probably running the company long-term and not for these greedy leeches. 
    What possibly makes you think it would be different if Apple were a privately held company? Where do you expect the $600 billion or more is going to come from to take them private? And you somehow think the whoever comes up with that will settle for smaller returns than Apple currently produces? Those "greedy leeches" you so easily criticize are the ones who own this company. People like you do not. If you don;tlie the direction your beloved Apple is taking then acquire a stake and speak out and marshal other owners to your side. You also make the classic mistake of focusing on the short term and analysts limited time span projections. Those pronouncements have some relevancy to the short term investor and traders. They have little relevancy to investors and those betting on the longer term future except where they may indicate longer term trends. I'll sum it up for you - You don't really understand investment versus short term and you should probably stick to tech and leave finance and securities alone. Additionally, you are not an owner of Apple and have no say. You do have an opinion and are entitled to that, but as the saying goes about assholes, everyone has one and they all stink.

    Spoken like a true beneficiary of Apple's hard work.

    ai46
  • Reply 49 of 80
    Why publish this "drek?" Yiddish for S--T
  • Reply 50 of 80
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 10,038member
    Great tactic AI! Post an “Apple is DOOMED™” article yesterday and then this morning follow up with an “iPhone selling like hotcakes” article. And a big thank you to Apple for not releasing first weekend sales figures. That tactic just made these articles possible. Now we can all just sit around and pleasure ourselves watching the show.
  • Reply 51 of 80
    lkrupp said:
    Great tactic AI! Post an “Apple is DOOMED™” article yesterday and then this morning follow up with an “iPhone selling like hotcakes” article. And a big thank you to Apple for not releasing first weekend sales figures. That tactic just made these articles possible. Now we can all just sit around and pleasure ourselves watching the show.
    It's just like presidential polls. One poll Clinton is leading, the next Trump is and people just believe which ever poll tells them what they want to hear.
  • Reply 52 of 80
    xmhillx said:
    sog35 said:
    Ming Kuo is a piece of shit.

    So iPhone7 will sell 10 million more units then he expected because Note7 problems? Giving a fuking break you piece of shit ANALyst. The Note7 only sold 1.5 million units at launch. And you SERIOUSLY think 10 million Note7 customers will buy iPhone7 instead?

    Giving a fuking break you piece of shit Kuo. You can't even admit YOU WERE WRONG and the demand for the iPhone7 is much greater than you expected. So instead of admiting you were fuking wrong, you make an excuse that iPhone7 is selling well because of Note7 failure.

    Next you say you should sell the stock now. YOU PIECE OF SHIT MANIPULATING CRAP head. Beat you are shorting the stock and trying to manipulate the market you pathetic DUNG Face ASIAN (I'm asian by the way)

    And now Ming KUO the PIECE OF SHIT is using troll reasoning - the demand for the 7 ins't strong, rather its because of artificially low supply.

    I'm sick of these PIE OF SHIT analysist who SPEW total and utter bull shit.

    Nah. I think your critical reading skills were a little off here.

    The exact quote is "the research firm has escalated its sales estimates from 65 million to between 70 million and 75 million, mostly because of the recall of the Samsung Galaxy Note 7 and the dual-camera feature in the iPhone 7 Plus. "

    Key points:

    Escalated sales estimates..... mostly because of.....recall.....and the dual camera.

    You arbitrarily try to say that the 1.5 million Note 7s sold and recalled don't add up to the additional estimated 10 million sales for iPhone; and therefore it's bullshit. Well, yes and no. Here's why.

    In one sense, obviously not all 1.5 million ppl who bought Note 7s are instead buying the iPhone 7 because of the recall (Samsung actually said 90% of customers who comply with the recall stick with the free replacement Note 7.) Still, that other 10% doesn't account for the extra 10 million iPhone sales. Duh. So this leads to the next point.

    In another sense, the Note 7 had been released for like what, 2 weeks, before the issues were reported and later the recall was announced? How many more people would've bought the Note 7 if they weren't exploding and being recalled? Once the reports went mainstream, then the international news about the explosions, then national and international recalls, warnings from the FCC, airlines, US government, foreign governments...... you could argue that this deterred potential future buyers of the Note 7.

    A third point is the aforementioned dual camera. Other phones have dual cameras, sure. But iPhone is by far more popular and revered by the general public as a "gold standard"; whether or not you agree the historic sales say they are the most popular. HTC One M8, LG G5, Huawei P9 have dual cameras but do not sell like the iPhone and the vast majority of people outside the tech world don't know they exist. "Everyone" knows the iPhone brand. So that brings in more iPhone buyers interested because of the "new" dual lens camera.

    So to recap:

    1) People switching away from their Note 7 due to the recall

    2) Potential future Note 7 buyers deterred from buying it because of the recall

    3) Dual lens camera attracting people away from Note 7 that doesn't have it

    4) "Mostly because of". The report says mostly. Keyword mostly. What is mostly, it's 51% or more. Could be 95% or could be 51% of the reason for increased estimates. They didn't specify. So there are obviously more factors that weren't mentioned that are attributable to the increase in estimates.

    You can't just say "So instead of admiting you were fuking wrong, you make an excuse that iPhone7 is selling well because of Note7 failure."

    Well yes. But also not in the way you expressed it; that's not quite what he or the report said. That's not well thought out nor does it include the nuances in what was actually written. I think you're mad and seeing red; I've done that too sometimes. It's hard to admit, I know. It sucks. 

    What?????! Lol.
    Sooooooo.... are you trying to say that nobody knew iPhone 7+ was going to have dual cameras before the initial estimates were made?? They were wrong because: the "unexpected" dual camera is a selling point?? I don't think I could come up with a more idiotic & hard to defend stance if I tried...
    ai46
  • Reply 53 of 80
    netrox said:
    I compared the camera quality between 7 and 6s  (not Plus series) and have found that 6S is far much better with selfie. I mean way much better. iPhone 7 is actually a step backward in camera quality. I found image quality to be worse on 7. Consumer Reports said that they couldn't find improvements over 6S... but I can say that from my examination of both devices that 7 is significantly worse. 

    The home button on 7 feels weird. 6s feels more natural. 

    Definitely not recommending 7 to anyone... I'd just tell them to get 6s. 


    It takes a special kind of moron to troll with the idea that 7 has a worse camera.
    pscooter63nolamacguyfastasleepwatto_cobra
  • Reply 54 of 80
    jungmarkjungmark Posts: 6,921member
    "artificial scarcity". Eff you, Kuo. These analysts love making shit up. 

    The 7 will sell at least as much as the 6S. 
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 55 of 80
    Another opportunity for Ming Chi Kuo to troll Apple?  :/


    edited September 2016 watto_cobra
  • Reply 56 of 80
    croprcropr Posts: 1,078member
    qwwera said:
    It was a calculated risk. Take more time to deliver a great all new phone and face this backlash, or rush out a new design for the sake of appearances.
    They chose to deliver a refined iPhone 6 and take the heat. For that I give major props to Cook. He has balls. 
    How do we know these were Apple's only choices? Back when we did get a new aesthetic design every two years I don't remember anyone saying Apple was rushing out a new design for the sake of appearances. And I doubt refining the iPhone 6 design took more time. The reason we have Jet Black is because Apple knew they would need something "new" to market this phone. Just a better camera isn't enough. The 7 is a great phone. But so is the 6S and the 6. It would not be surprising to me that people upgrade less frequently because the phone they have in their pocket is really good and the YOY improvements aren't as big as they were 3-4 years ago.
    I would say that the improvements becomes less relevant.  A lag that drops from 1s to 0.1s is very important, a log that drops from 0.1s to 0.01s is nice to have and a lag that drops from 0.01s to 0.001s is irrelevant. My iPhone6 is fast enough for 99% of all my use cases.  So even if the iPhone7 is 2 times faster I don't care that much and I would not buy iPhone7 because of its speed.

  • Reply 57 of 80
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 23,424member
    sog35 said:
    Ming Kuo is a piece of shit.

    So iPhone7 will sell 10 million more units then he expected because Note7 problems? Giving a fuking break you piece of shit ANALyst. The Note7 only sold 1.5 million units at launch. And you SERIOUSLY think 10 million Note7 customers will buy iPhone7 instead?
    Not just the Note 7's are impacted IMHO. Samsung's entire line of 7's has been painted with the broad brush of battery explosions. I don't have any doubt at all that Apple will sell a few million iPhone's that they otherwise may not have without the Samsung Note issues. Between folks just hearing about the batteries and not understanding what models were involved and carriers having only the new iPhone 7's to pitch as "free" instead of it and the Note's to use as a draw for new customers Apple is coming out smelling pretty nice, while Samsung smells a bit rank. 
    edited September 2016 brucemcwatto_cobra
  • Reply 58 of 80
    jungmarkjungmark Posts: 6,921member
    lkrupp said:
    Great tactic AI! Post an “Apple is DOOMED™” article yesterday and then this morning follow up with an “iPhone selling like hotcakes” article. And a big thank you to Apple for not releasing first weekend sales figures. That tactic just made these articles possible. Now we can all just sit around and pleasure ourselves watching the show.
    It's just like presidential polls. One poll Clinton is leading, the next Trump is and people just believe which ever poll tells them what they want to hear.
    They why isn't "extinction event" leading any poll?
    palomine
  • Reply 59 of 80
    tycho24 said:
    What?????! Lol.
    Sooooooo.... are you trying to say that nobody knew iPhone 7+ was going to have dual cameras before the initial estimates were made?? They were wrong because: the "unexpected" dual camera is a selling point?? I don't think I could come up with a more idiotic & hard to defend stance if I tried...
    You start off with asking if I'm trying to say that, then conclude that I did. 

    I spelled out 4 points that contribute to a different estimate. As elementary as I could make it. And you try to pin it down to only one.

    Underestimating the interest in the dual camera could be a factor in low initial sales estimates, but it's not the only factor nor is it overwhelmingly the biggest factor. The general public wasn't aware about the dual camera until it was announced, they just buy iPhones cuz they're new iPhones. Some see a new dual lens camera and are even more swayed to buy it cuz they've never seen one before cuz they don't really pay attention to the entire smartphone market. It's not unfathomable that the amount of those ppl was underestimated and contributes to a higher estimate; keyword contributes. Along with the other 3 contributing factors I spelled out. Doesn't mean it alone makes up the whole reason for low estimates.
    edited September 2016
  • Reply 60 of 80
    brucemcbrucemc Posts: 1,541member
    Since only Apple knows the sales split by model, this is all conjecture.  If talking total iPhones, then there is public data to go on, but certainly not how many 6s sold in any quarter last year, vs. the previous model 6 which was still around, vs. the SE later added in FY Q2.
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