Supply chain suggests Apple to see better-than-expected holiday season, analyst says

Posted:
in AAPL Investors
A positive earnings pre-announcement from Apple supplier Dialog Semiconductor on Wednesday leads RBC Capital Markets analyst Amit Daryanani to believe iPhone sales are set to outperform Wall Street expectations in the December quarter.









In a note to investors obtained by AppleInsider, Daryanani notes Dialog pre-announced positive September quarter results on the back of mobile systems revenue, suggesting strong component orders from Apple. Dialog raised revenue expectations for the past quarter to about $345 million, up 13 percent from previous estimates between $290 million to $320 million.



Though Dialog failed to delve into specifics, it did say the revenue bump is in part the result of mobile systems orders being pulled forward into the third quarter to accommodate China's National Day holiday on Oct. 1. Apple, which accounts for 75 to 80 percent of Dialog's mobile systems revenue, traditionally builds iPhone approximately 60 days out, meaning the pulled-in orders are likely related to the December quarter, Daryanani writes.



Along with Dialog earnings, the analyst believes a number of associated metrics point to strong year end earnings for Apple. In particular, Darynani cites an upside to iPhone ASPs on better than expected preliminary carrier data points, a shift in consumer preference to Apple's flagship iPhone 7 and 7 Plus models, mix-shift toward the larger 5.5-inch model, the Samsung Galaxy Note 7 debacle and an extra week tacked on to the December quarter.



In a recent RBC survey 46 percent of respondents said they plan to buy a 5.5-inch iPhone, up from 38 percent a year ago. Further, more than half of consumers intend to spring for the mid-tier 128GB version. Daryanani said there was fear that users would stick with 32GB of storage, formerly Apple's mid-tier choice which this year becomes the lowest capacity option. Apple makes premium on devices with higher memory allotments. RBC's survey also suggests consumers are replacing iPhones at a steady rate.



Finally, about 17 percent of consumers polled intend to purchase an Apple Watch compared to 13 percent last year, while Apple Pay is making strides with usage rates hovering at 24 percent, up from 16 percent just after launch.



Daryanani sets an Apple stock target price of $125 and estimates the company will take in $47.3 billion in revenue for the September quarter on 44.2 million iPhone unit sales. For the important holiday quarter, the analyst sees $78.7B in revenue on about 79 million iPhone sales.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 29
    lolliverlolliver Posts: 337member
    These articles really should include details of Apple's guidance for the quarter as that's all that really matters. Not some made up figure by analysts based on rumors and small pieces of the puzzle.
    calisricejony0
  • Reply 2 of 29
    fallenjtfallenjt Posts: 3,976member
    But but iPhone was peaked and Apple would be doomed, no?
    calilolliveranton zuykovigorskyjony0
  • Reply 3 of 29
    lolliver said:
    These articles really should include details of Apple's guidance for the quarter as that's all that really matters. Not some made up figure by analysts based on rumors and small pieces of the puzzle.
    I think you're correct in general, i.e. the guidance is very accurate.  (I'm impressed with their accuracy and I don't really understand how they achieve it.)  But in this case specifically, as of today, Apple has not given us any guidance for the December quarter.  I think they'll give it to us in two or three weeks.  So I'm very interested in the notes to investors that these analysts write, and I'm quite pleased that AI report on them.
    lolliverlevianton zuykovjony0
  • Reply 4 of 29
    calicali Posts: 3,495member
    With Samsung phones exploding and the Pixel disaster I don't see any reason to own an iPhone knockoff right now.
    lolliverirelandanton zuykovigorskyjony0
  • Reply 5 of 29
    lolliverlolliver Posts: 337member
    lolliver said:
    These articles really should include details of Apple's guidance for the quarter as that's all that really matters. Not some made up figure by analysts based on rumors and small pieces of the puzzle.
    I think you're correct in general, i.e. the guidance is very accurate.  (I'm impressed with their accuracy and I don't really understand how they achieve it.)  But in this case specifically, as of today, Apple has not given us any guidance for the December quarter.  I think they'll give it to us in two or three weeks.  So I'm very interested in the notes to investors that these analysts write, and I'm quite pleased that AI report on them.

    Good point. I certainly wasn't saying AI shouldn't report on them. Just that it would be good to have additional context if available from Apple. I am also surprised at how accurate Apple's guidance has been and have no idea how they achieve it.
    delreyjonescalianton zuykovjony0
  • Reply 6 of 29
    blitz1blitz1 Posts: 412member
    I was 9 yrs with Apple's iPhone.
    Halo and all that stuff (iMac, iPad, a couple of iPhones - skipped the 5 series, iPad Pro)

    Just today, I bought my first Android phone. Costed me less than 200USD and it features a superb 13MP camera, Snapdragon quad core, 2Gb RAM, ... performance is terrific.

    All the apps work alike on iPhone and Android.
    Some seem to work better on Android (better integration of functions - Apple is still closing some stuff - yes, I know, you'll say with good reason, we've been there before).

    I guess, I realized that it's been a couple of years that there's nothing special to a smartphone.
    That it's become since long ago a commodity.

    Let's see how I can sync my calendar and contacts. I'll be just fine... paying 600USD less


    edited October 2016 spice-boygatorguy
  • Reply 7 of 29
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 7,162member
    fallenjt said:
    But but iPhone was peaked and Apple would be doomed, no?
    Apple, proudly going out of business for forty years and counting! :'(
    calimacxpressigorskylolliver
  • Reply 8 of 29
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 7,162member

    blitz1 said:
    I was 9 yrs with Apple's iPhone.
    Halo and all that stuff (iMac, iPad, a couple of iPhones - skipped the 5 series, iPad Pro)

    Just today, I bought my first Android phone. Costed me less than 200USD and it features a superb 13MP camera, Snapdragon quad core, 2Gb RAM, ... performance is terrific.

    All the apps work alike on iPhone and Android.
    Some seem to work better on Android (better integration of functions - Apple is still closing some stuff - yes, I know, you'll say with good reason, we've been there before).

    I guess, I realized that it's been a couple of years that there's nothing special to a smartphone.
    That it's become since long ago a commodity.

    Let's see how I can sync my calendar and contacts. I'll be just fine... paying 600USD less


    Recent reports would seem to indicate you are a small minority.
    caliwatto_cobraigorskylolliverjony0
  • Reply 9 of 29
    NY1822NY1822 Posts: 599member
    blitz1 said:
    I was 9 yrs with Apple's iPhone.
    Halo and all that stuff (iMac, iPad, a couple of iPhones - skipped the 5 series, iPad Pro)

    Just today, I bought my first Android phone. Costed me less than 200USD and it features a superb 13MP camera, Snapdragon quad core, 2Gb RAM, ... performance is terrific.

    All the apps work alike on iPhone and Android.
    Some seem to work better on Android (better integration of functions - Apple is still closing some stuff - yes, I know, you'll say with good reason, we've been there before).

    I guess, I realized that it's been a couple of years that there's nothing special to a smartphone.
    That it's become since long ago a commodity.

    Let's see how I can sync my calendar and contacts. I'll be just fine... paying 600USD less


    What country do you live in? Do you get subsidiaries on the price of phones when you lock into a new contract like U.S. does?
  • Reply 10 of 29
    I guess, I realized that it's been a couple of years that there's nothing special to a smartphone.
    For some, better implemented security on iOS devices is a good reason not to touch Android.
    edited October 2016 caliwatto_cobraigorskylolliverpalominejony0
  • Reply 11 of 29
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 20,752member
    cali said:
    With Samsung phones exploding and the Pixel disaster I don't see any reason to own an iPhone knockoff right now. :neutral: ?
    Pixel disaster? Other than a far-too-high starting price for the two handsets I didn't know there was some disaster that happened. 

    Prices can be changed of course, and generally they have been within a couple of months of release. I still wouldn't consider one for myself as it's not likely to fall below $500 anyway IMO, Instead I'm picking up a sub-$400 but just as well-equipped and featured spare smartphone for off-work personal use. 
  • Reply 12 of 29
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 20,752member
    blitz1 said:
    I was 9 yrs with Apple's iPhone... Just today, I bought my first Android phone. 
    That it's become since long ago a commodity.

    Let's see how I can sync my calendar and contacts. I'll be just fine... paying 600USD less


    https://www.android.com/switch/
  • Reply 13 of 29
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 20,752member
    I guess, I realized that it's been a couple of years that there's nothing special to a smartphone.
    For some, better implemented security on iOS devices is a good reason not to touch Android.
    Security or privacy? I suspect you actually meant the latter. They're both very secure OS'es. 
    edited October 2016
  • Reply 14 of 29
    blitz1 said:
    I was 9 yrs with Apple's iPhone.
    Halo and all that stuff (iMac, iPad, a couple of iPhones - skipped the 5 series, iPad Pro)

    Just today, I bought my first Android phone. Costed me less than 200USD and it features a superb 13MP camera, Snapdragon quad core, 2Gb RAM, ... performance is terrific.

    All the apps work alike on iPhone and Android.
    Some seem to work better on Android (better integration of functions - Apple is still closing some stuff - yes, I know, you'll say with good reason, we've been there before).

    I guess, I realized that it's been a couple of years that there's nothing special to a smartphone.
    That it's become since long ago a commodity.

    Let's see how I can sync my calendar and contacts. I'll be just fine... paying 600USD less



    Hmm.. an Apple fan that's a feature whore (13MP camera, Snapdragon quad core, 2Gb RAM) and skimpy. It's surprising you stayed with Apple this long.
    edited October 2016 watto_cobrabrucemclolliverpalomine
  • Reply 15 of 29
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 20,752member
    lolliver said:
    These articles really should include details of Apple's guidance for the quarter as that's all that really matters. Not some made up figure by analysts based on rumors and small pieces of the puzzle.
    I think you're correct in general, i.e. the guidance is very accurate.  (I'm impressed with their accuracy and I don't really understand how they achieve it.)  But in this case specifically, as of today, Apple has not given us any guidance for the December quarter.  I think they'll give it to us in two or three weeks.  So I'm very interested in the notes to investors that these analysts write, and I'm quite pleased that AI report on them.
    Didn't they offer guidance after the last quarter's results? They always do don't they, tho in a very quick search I didn't find what they were this time around. 
  • Reply 16 of 29
    calicali Posts: 3,495member
    blitz1 said:
    I was 9 yrs with Apple's iPhone.
    Halo and all that stuff (iMac, iPad, a couple of iPhones - skipped the 5 series, iPad Pro)

    Just today, I bought my first Android phone. Costed me less than 200USD and it features a superb 13MP camera, Snapdragon quad core, 2Gb RAM, ... performance is terrific.

    All the apps work alike on iPhone and Android.
    Some seem to work better on Android (better integration of functions - Apple is still closing some stuff - yes, I know, you'll say with good reason, we've been there before).

    I guess, I realized that it's been a couple of years that there's nothing special to a smartphone.
    That it's become since long ago a commodity.

    Let's see how I can sync my calendar and contacts. I'll be just fine... paying 600USD less


      you can thank Apple for making all those features a commodity. No snapdragon in the world is going to speed up your laggy bloatware- infested knockoff device.

    Might as well go all the way and get a Windows machine, some random tablet, Some random smart watch and a surface. Good luck.




    watto_cobraigorskyfastasleeplolliverpalominebadmonk
  • Reply 17 of 29
    calicali Posts: 3,495member

    gatorguy said:
    cali said:
    With Samsung phones exploding and the Pixel disaster I don't see any reason to own an iPhone knockoff right now. :neutral: ?
    Pixel disaster? Other than a far-too-high starting price for the two handsets I didn't know there was some disaster that happened. 

    Prices can be changed of course, and generally they have been within a couple of months of release. I still wouldn't consider one for myself as it's not likely to fall below $500 anyway IMO, Instead I'm picking up a sub-$400 but just as well-equipped and featured spare smartphone for off-work personal use. 
    When hard-core Apple haters are disappointed and saying they're switching to iPhone then you know it was a disaster. Dropping the price will be another disaster, I predict they'll drop about $200 a few weeks after release. Fire phone all over again.
    watto_cobraigorskylolliverpalomine
  • Reply 18 of 29
    Was this featured on CNBC? Must have missed that segment. Dia...what?
  • Reply 19 of 29
    blitz1blitz1 Posts: 412member
    matrix077 said:
    blitz1 said:
    I was 9 yrs with Apple's iPhone.
    Halo and all that stuff (iMac, iPad, a couple of iPhones - skipped the 5 series, iPad Pro)

    Just today, I bought my first Android phone. Costed me less than 200USD and it features a superb 13MP camera, Snapdragon quad core, 2Gb RAM, ... performance is terrific.

    All the apps work alike on iPhone and Android.
    Some seem to work better on Android (better integration of functions - Apple is still closing some stuff - yes, I know, you'll say with good reason, we've been there before).

    I guess, I realized that it's been a couple of years that there's nothing special to a smartphone.
    That it's become since long ago a commodity.

    Let's see how I can sync my calendar and contacts. I'll be just fine... paying 600USD less



    Hmm.. an Apple fan that's a feature whore (13MP camera, Snapdragon quad core, 2Gb RAM) and skimpy. It's surprising you stayed with Apple this long.
    Actually, I first was looking for a dumbphone.
    kind of had it with all the pressure that a smartphone is building.
    it's then that I caught this one and found the specs quite interesting considering the price.
    Still have to make sure that they all deliver.

    first thing I can say is that speed is not an issue (I'm not a gamer)
  • Reply 20 of 29
    blitz1blitz1 Posts: 412member

    NY1822 said:
    blitz1 said:
    I was 9 yrs with Apple's iPhone.
    Halo and all that stuff (iMac, iPad, a couple of iPhones - skipped the 5 series, iPad Pro)

    Just today, I bought my first Android phone. Costed me less than 200USD and it features a superb 13MP camera, Snapdragon quad core, 2Gb RAM, ... performance is terrific.

    All the apps work alike on iPhone and Android.
    Some seem to work better on Android (better integration of functions - Apple is still closing some stuff - yes, I know, you'll say with good reason, we've been there before).

    I guess, I realized that it's been a couple of years that there's nothing special to a smartphone.
    That it's become since long ago a commodity.

    Let's see how I can sync my calendar and contacts. I'll be just fine... paying 600USD less


    What country do you live in? Do you get subsidiaries on the price of phones when you lock into a new contract like U.S. does?
    It's fully unlocked.
    Some carriers do propose lock-ins
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