Kuo: Apple AR tech to debut in 1-2 years at minimum, might feature in autonomous car syste...
As Google, Microsoft and Facebook forge ahead with second- and third-generation augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR) systems, consumers waiting for an Apple branded AR product will have to stand by for at least one or two more years, according to well-connected KGI analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.
Drawing from Apple's "Visual-based inertial navigation" patent.
Ming-Chi Kuo in a note to investors obtained by AppleInsider notes AR fits in well with Apple's aptitude for delivering innovative users experiences through unique human-machine interfaces. The company's current success is in large part thanks to iPhone, a device that introduced multitouch screens to the masses.
Just as technology introduced with iPod paved the way for iPhone, so might iPhone provide the necessary building blocks for a full-blown AR solution, Kuo says. The analyst fails to provide detail on a particular embodiment, but Android smartphones are already being used to power VR headsets. Apple might test the waters with a system akin to the hit iOS game Pokmon Go, which taps into iPhone's camera and display to provide users with a seamless AR experience.
On a fundamental level, augmented reality can be described as a layer of digital information overlaid onto the physical world. Modern systems like Microsoft's HoloLens use a mix of cameras, sensors, transparent displays and specialized software a to immerse users in a digitally augmented world. These advanced systems have massive computational and power requirements and are therefore bulky, hardly ideal for a user experience company like Apple.
When the technology matures, however, Kuo sees Apple integrating AR to redefine key product lines, perhaps leapfrogging competitors by three to five years. For example, augmented user interfaces could drastically change the way users interact with Apple Watch and Apple TV, eliminating obstacles like small screens and clunky controls.
At the same time, Apple might leverage AR tech to break into other fields, Kuo says. One such area of interest is automotive technology, or more specifically autonomous driving systems.
Apple was widely rumored to be working on a self-driving car, dubbed "Project Titan," since March of 2015, but recent reports claim the company has abandoned those plans. Instead of a full-fledged car, Apple is scaling back its ambitious project to focus on underlying technology.
Of note, a report last week said Apple is testing an AR heads-up display with Siri integration as part of a pivot to self-driving software and supporting hardware.
It's no secret that Apple has an interested in AR. The topic has become a go-to talking point for CEO Tim Cook, who takes what seems to be every PR opportunity to trumpet a bullish stance on the burgeoning tech.
Cook first broached the subject during an earnings conference call in July, saying, "We are high on AR for the long run, we think there's great things for customers and a great commercial opportunity. So we're investing."
He reiterated the sentiment in August. And again in September before doubling down with two AR name drops (1, 2) last month.
Beyond Cook's devoutly declared interest in AR, evidence shows Apple is slowly building out an AR team of sorts through strategic hires and segment purchases. The company is buying up small AR/VR firms, including motion capture specialist Faceshift, machine learning and computer vision startup Perceptio, German AR firm Metaio and former Google collaborator Flyby Media.
Development of supporting tech is also being pursued in house, evidenced by a growing portfolio of AR/VR patents for transparent displays, iPhone-powered virtual reality systems, advanced computer vision tech and other related tech.
Still, Apple has not tipped its hand on concrete plans for the burgeoning AR industry. Cook's bluster, the hires, acquisitions, patents and rumor are all small parts of a larger, at this point nebulous, whole.
And so the rumor mill churns. With a dearth of meaningful insight into Apple's plans, it is unknown when and in what shape the company's AR product will materialize. Kuo's low-end estimate of one to two years is a relatively long incubation period for the fast-moving tech industry. Considering Apple is already "heavily invested" in the tech, a segment debut could result in an iPhone accessory, a self-driving car, or even an AR-infused contact lens. Or nothing at all.
Drawing from Apple's "Visual-based inertial navigation" patent.
Ming-Chi Kuo in a note to investors obtained by AppleInsider notes AR fits in well with Apple's aptitude for delivering innovative users experiences through unique human-machine interfaces. The company's current success is in large part thanks to iPhone, a device that introduced multitouch screens to the masses.
Just as technology introduced with iPod paved the way for iPhone, so might iPhone provide the necessary building blocks for a full-blown AR solution, Kuo says. The analyst fails to provide detail on a particular embodiment, but Android smartphones are already being used to power VR headsets. Apple might test the waters with a system akin to the hit iOS game Pokmon Go, which taps into iPhone's camera and display to provide users with a seamless AR experience.
On a fundamental level, augmented reality can be described as a layer of digital information overlaid onto the physical world. Modern systems like Microsoft's HoloLens use a mix of cameras, sensors, transparent displays and specialized software a to immerse users in a digitally augmented world. These advanced systems have massive computational and power requirements and are therefore bulky, hardly ideal for a user experience company like Apple.
When the technology matures, however, Kuo sees Apple integrating AR to redefine key product lines, perhaps leapfrogging competitors by three to five years. For example, augmented user interfaces could drastically change the way users interact with Apple Watch and Apple TV, eliminating obstacles like small screens and clunky controls.
At the same time, Apple might leverage AR tech to break into other fields, Kuo says. One such area of interest is automotive technology, or more specifically autonomous driving systems.
Apple was widely rumored to be working on a self-driving car, dubbed "Project Titan," since March of 2015, but recent reports claim the company has abandoned those plans. Instead of a full-fledged car, Apple is scaling back its ambitious project to focus on underlying technology.
Of note, a report last week said Apple is testing an AR heads-up display with Siri integration as part of a pivot to self-driving software and supporting hardware.
It's no secret that Apple has an interested in AR. The topic has become a go-to talking point for CEO Tim Cook, who takes what seems to be every PR opportunity to trumpet a bullish stance on the burgeoning tech.
Cook first broached the subject during an earnings conference call in July, saying, "We are high on AR for the long run, we think there's great things for customers and a great commercial opportunity. So we're investing."
He reiterated the sentiment in August. And again in September before doubling down with two AR name drops (1, 2) last month.
Beyond Cook's devoutly declared interest in AR, evidence shows Apple is slowly building out an AR team of sorts through strategic hires and segment purchases. The company is buying up small AR/VR firms, including motion capture specialist Faceshift, machine learning and computer vision startup Perceptio, German AR firm Metaio and former Google collaborator Flyby Media.
Development of supporting tech is also being pursued in house, evidenced by a growing portfolio of AR/VR patents for transparent displays, iPhone-powered virtual reality systems, advanced computer vision tech and other related tech.
Still, Apple has not tipped its hand on concrete plans for the burgeoning AR industry. Cook's bluster, the hires, acquisitions, patents and rumor are all small parts of a larger, at this point nebulous, whole.
And so the rumor mill churns. With a dearth of meaningful insight into Apple's plans, it is unknown when and in what shape the company's AR product will materialize. Kuo's low-end estimate of one to two years is a relatively long incubation period for the fast-moving tech industry. Considering Apple is already "heavily invested" in the tech, a segment debut could result in an iPhone accessory, a self-driving car, or even an AR-infused contact lens. Or nothing at all.
Comments
You were saying Kuo? Excuse me, Mr. Well-Informed Analyst, if you please? Never happened did it? You were called out for that weren't you? No actually you weren't, so I'll take that responsibility now.
I predict within 6 years Apple may put OLED displays atop most-every physical key on their MBP keyboard to allow for flexibility, clarity and power. The displays will have the same matte feel of the Touch Bar and will perfectly match ambient brightness and colour temperature of the environment allowing the keys to feel very natural and under regular typing the displays will go unnoticed. That is until shift, caps lock, alt or Calculator are activated. Or you open up your favourite music app—at which point any key can become a sound pad. Hey look, I'm an analyst!
Is Apple Planning a Foldable iPhone 8?
Next year marks the 10th anniversary of the iPhone, and Apple is widely thought to be planning something major for the double-digit birthday of its flagship product. And judging by a new patent awarded to Apple, the iPhone 8 may well confound even the most speculative of analysts.
Published by the United States Patent and Trademark Office on Monday, November 1, Apple’s latest patent describes a foldable iPhone concept that uses carbon nanotubes to allow the smartphone to fold completely in half.
Apple has been exploring the concept of foldable and bendable smartphones since 2013, with patents including a Flexible Electronic Device from 2015 that made use of flexible printed circuits, flexible batteries and flexible displays.
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It is not the only smartphone manufacturer to be looking into such concepts, with chief rival Samsung filing dozens of patents relating to such technology. Whether or not any of them find their way into actual products remains to be seen, but the continued interest suggests the companies are serious about at least attempting to make the concept a reality.
The relatively anti-climactic launch of the iPhone 7 appears to be proof that Apple is switching to a three-year iPhone cycle. The Cupertino company previously took two years between full-model changes, however the device unveiled in September was more of an incremental upgrade of its predecessor, the iPhone 6s.
Industry analysts have pointed to a slowing market and limited advancements in smartphone functions as reasons for Apple’s switch.
Apple reported its first decline in iPhone sales earlier this year, with a 16 percent drop in it Q2 2016 results. CEO Tim Cook cited the pace of smartphone upgrades as a reason for the slump, saying the iPhone 6s was unable to match the “accelerated” upgrade cycle the company achieved when it launched the iPhone 6 in 2014.
Wish someone one would pay me to be a professional guesser.
If Apple's car project did make a turn to "scale back / slow down / stop" a full car development & focus on underlying technology, I suspect that it was about getting X right before going to Y, as well as a re-evaluation of the market timing. Full autonomy, the blue sky utopia vision that everyone seems to have, is many, many years away. Apple needs to either time that appropriately with a full car (or service...as unlikely as that is), or change their specific car focus.
There are many improvements which can be made to the "car", without having full autonomy (manufacturing processes, customizability, materials, space usage, UI, AR, etc). The question is if Apple can bring a product to market that makes enough people go "aha - that is the car I want". It will take billions to get into that market, so the payoff has to be high.
When you're completely wrong and then make up some mealy-mouthed crap like 'Oh, they were going to build an autonomous car, but they decided against it the day before they were due to go on sale' – then you'll be an analyst.
It puts essential data in your field of vision. At 400+ MPH you can't afford to look at the instruments. I'd hate to try to look at the Altimeter at Mach 2+ while on the tail of a bandit.
I have a couple of speeding tickets because I wasn't paying close enough attention to the speedo.
Having experienced a HUD in flight in a Military Jet (RAF Hunter) I can testify to its usefulness.
I'd fully expect a HUB in a car to be just as useful (but with different data)