I will say, I have seen some friends and family who typically are late-adopters when it comes to anything tech, have purchased Apple Watches in the last couple of months. In one case, I was very surprised to see the Nike edition on my brother and he loves it. Bought it for the fitness stuff but uses it for calls and texts a lot, he said.
Cooks use of the word sell through indicates that they may well have had a bad quarter last quarter. Sell through is sales from channel
While this is true, do you see a sudden jump in sell through for a product that has existed for a few years for no reason. Cook wouldn't have commented on this unless he was confident. I know of someone who just bought one. People seem to like them. Especially since OS 3 and the new faster watches.
Bought the Nike+ model a few weeks ago, and it continue to surprise me, though not as much when it let me take a phone call from my iPhone which was… well at the time I wasn't sure where it was, but I know it was in the house somewhere.
I think the problem you have with the Apple Watch is not that people dislike them (I mean, if you don't like it then just don't buy it), it's that people think that if they can somehow get it to fail then Apple will have no choice but to start focussing on Macs again. Yes, it's a long shot, but people aren't always that bright.
I don't see Apple focusing on Macs primarily anymore. That stopped in 10yrs ago 2006 when Apple was really pushing to get the iPhone out the door. Its a new Apple and there's a reason why Apple dropped Computer from its name and simply went to Apple, Inc. They're not just a computer company anymore. Some of these so called experienced Apple users, you know the ones who have to justify their posts by starting out saying they've used Macs for 25yrs just need to accept the fact that the Mac isn't and will never be Apple's primary focus anymore. Thats not to say Apple doesn't care about the Mac as its still a large chunk of revenue for them, but its just not like it used to be where it was their primary source of revenue and their flagship product.
Hopefully 2017 will bring new, updated Macs and people will just stop complaining about the lack of updates from Apple. If Apple really wanted to, they could just release new Macs every 6 months for the hell of it with minimal to no upgrades just so shut people up (like they used to) but that doesn't make any sense what so ever. Once this so called USB-C debacle is over and everything gets switched over from legacy USB-A (YES Legacy!) then maybe people will calm down a little.
Cooks use of the word sell through indicates that they may well have had a bad quarter last quarter. Sell through is sales from channel
Great comment on the sell through. Watch sales probably were stagnating and picked up due to faster watch os3 and better watch 2. IDC metrics (such as they are) probably lag reality by at least a quarter.
Lets get real though. If the optics of this product were comparable to phones Apple would release numbers. They don't. The real heyday of the watch is yet to come, maybe not starting until 2018.
Let's get real though. Apple said they wouldn't release numbers before the original even launched. This is a good strategy and I don't want them to release numbers ever.
As I mentioned in the other thread, I bought two of the Series 2. Always on back order but after checking local stores every day I was finally able to pick them up.
Had to visit two different stores, though. That tells me they're selling well. As fast as Apple can make them at least.
One might assume an organization like IDC would be held accountable for its research but I’m guessing its clients pay well for FUD that can be used to their advantage against a competitor or other analysts. The stock market is based on FUD and always has been.
The thing I find kind of interesting about these old predictions is that while they vastly overestimated Microsoft and vastly underestimated Android, they actually weren't too far off on iPhone.
It is quite possible that Apple Watch sales in Q3 were low and well off of Q3 2015, which is the first quarter of Apple Watch sales where production caught up with demand following its introduction (really) at the start of Q2 2015. Q3 2015 was likely the best, or 2nd best, quarter since introduction.
Q3 2016 on the other hand had some people (that follow these things) expecting a refresh so sales tail off, and then the update at end of Q3 with potentially limited availability, while the product line was then very stale. Voila - poor quarter. But that doesn't say anything about how the updated Series 1 and new Series 2 are doing in the market actually.
So this is what I believed happened - the headline (70% sales drop) - speaks of catastrophe, and so Tim Cook felt the need to correct that in fact, in this quarter (calendar Q4 2016), sales are doing great. Tim didn't refute the IDC number for Q3 - he pointed out that AW is selling very well and on track for a record quarter.
Most people can't seem to get their head out of their own arse these days, but for those that really want to know what goes on in the market, you have to look beyond single quarter headline numbers that have easy explanations for why they are either up or down.
If I didn't know any better I'd be inclined to think that Tim Cook had coffee or a beer with Sog this weekend LOL.
I figure Sog would have been first, but you and a number of others beat him to this news thread.
Honestly anyone who knows anything know IDC has no idea what they are talking about and they are the largest market share news tolls on the internet and you do not feed the trolls and Cook just feed them.
Cooks use of the word sell through indicates that they may well have had a bad quarter last quarter. Sell through is sales from channel
You're reading way too much into it. All it means, in context, is the actual numbers sold in relation to numbers shipped (the latter of which is what the IDCs of the world estimate). I'll bet that the number shipped went up too. We'll know soon enough.
There's a possibility that IDC's report could have some truth to it, tho the inference they were making would clearly be wrong based on Mr Cook's stated record sales.
IDC "sale" occurs when a product is paid for, which traditionally is the measure anyway. In this case it would be when Apple was paid for it, or minimally shipped with an expectation of payment. Sell-thru includes existing already paid for inventory in stores and online retailers that would not be counted for a second time in "sales" since Apple doesn't get paid again. The retailer already paid them at an earlier time.
For example if there was a significant quantity of Apple Watch Gen1 already paid for (Apple was paid) in Targets inventory, which would not be hugely surprising, it would not be part of IDC's figures, but it could be part of Tim Cook's sell-thru for the first week of the shopping season.
Sometimes when we discuss things it's not clear what exactly is being referenced. Mr. Cook didn't directly refute the IDC ship numbers but instead commented with a different but related metric to make the more important note that the Apple Watch is selling well to consumers this Holiday season. To be honest sell-thru tells much more about the Apple Watch market than some specific quarter of shipping data. Apple Watch seems healthy enough.
Well you assume wrong. Think about could they have a "reasonably accurate" sales metrics for Apple when Apple doesn't release Apple Watch sales???
Agreed. Bear in mind that Tim Cook is under *significant legal obligation* to be truthful in all his public utterances (which is why he says little and is often vague). Here he is being specific: IDC has made up their numbers (this is NOT the first time they've been caught doing so), and they are wrong.
I think the problem you have with the Apple Watch is not that people dislike them (I mean, if you don't like it then just don't buy it), it's that people think that if they can somehow get it to fail then Apple will have no choice but to start focussing on Macs again. Yes, it's a long shot, but people aren't always that bright.
Or until Tim Cook is fired. It's amazing to me how not releasing Watch sales figures means the product is a flop yet Amazon can get away with not ever releasing figures on anything and their stock is at record highs. No one says the Kindle or Echo are flops even though Amazon releases no sales data on either yet Watch is because Apple won't give us sales figures. I don't get how that logic works.
I do. Either it's a narrative by and for idiots, or there's no logic there.
Well you assume wrong. Think about could they have a "reasonably accurate" sales metrics for Apple when Apple doesn't release Apple Watch sales??? Not only does Apple sell through many third party, like Target, Best Buy, Kohl's, etc., but Apple has the bulk of its sales through its own stores and websites that these guys can only take a WAG at. As a result, they end up making up a lot of stuff. No one can call them on it because no one knows and it becomes nice click bait (Apple Watch sales plunge 75%!) . Finally, Cook had enough and called them out on their fake news. Good for him to show them up as liars and frauds.
The exact figure is not known, but if Best Buy, Target and the others resellers are saying their sales figures are 10% down versus previous quarters, then chances are pretty big that the actual sales figures went 10% down. If a manufacturer like Apple does not provide figures, IDC (and other research companies) not only correlate data form the resellers side but also from the component suppliers side. This means that the published figures will definitely have an significant margin of error. However because a research company always make the correlation in the same way, trends from quarter to quarter are quite accurate
Cooks use of the word sell through indicates that they may well have had a bad quarter last quarter. Sell through is sales from channel
Great comment on the sell through. Watch sales probably were stagnating and picked up due to faster watch os3 and better watch 2. IDC metrics (such as they are) probably lag reality by at least a quarter.
Lets get real though. If the optics of this product were comparable to phones Apple would release numbers. They don't. The real heyday of the watch is yet to come, maybe not starting until 2018.
Let's get real though. Apple said they wouldn't release numbers before the original even launched. This is a good strategy and I don't want them to release numbers ever.
Don't be surprised if this becomes the new norm.
I'm never going to complain when Cook defends the Apple brand. Many people think I'm a negative Apple hater troll but I'm not. I want the company to do well and DESTROY the competition.
I too hope that Apple never releases Watch numbers. In fact I want them to stop all unit numbers including iPhone, Mac, and iPad. The less information you give Wall Street the better. Look at companies like Amazon, Samsung, and Google. They NEVER release unit sales. I want Apple to just release 3 numbers each quarter:
1. Total hardware revenue 2. Total services revenue 3. Other revenue
That's it. And may once or twice a year release some stat like 'most iPhones sold in a year' or some other crap like that. Or Watch sales is up 40% YoY. That's what every other company does.
I hope Cook is learning how to play the game.
The next steps I want Cook to do to win the propaganda war:
1. Start hiring private contractors to make 'visits' to members of the media and analysis who continue to write bullshit crap about Apple. I want Cook to send 10 guys to visit Ming Kuo so he 'feels' Apple a bit. Nothing illegal of course.
2. Start funneling money and products to key members in the tech media. Its seems that only 1 out of 10 members of the tech media support Apple. The other 9 are Apple haters and write anything to bash Apple.
3. Aggressively shutdown and counter negative bullshit reports. Hire a team of 50 just to control the narrative in the press and address these bullshit reports.
4. Spend more money on advertising.
In the good ole days Jobs did not want to shutdown rumors and negative bullshit. But we live in a different era. Today that strategy is not practical. In this era a company needs to AGGRESSIVELY DEFEND their BRAND.
I agree with pretty much everything except the 'visits' and 'funneling' suggestions. Apple need not stoop to junky behavior.
Also, I think Apple should stop providing guidance, as many good companies have the ba!!s to do.
There's a possibility that IDC's report could have some truth to it, tho the inference they were making would clearly be wrong based on Mr Cook's stated record sales.
IDC "sale" occurs when a product is paid for, which traditionally is the measure anyway. In this case it would be when Apple was paid for it, or minimally shipped with an expectation of payment. Sell-thru includes existing already paid for inventory in stores and online retailers that would not be counted for a second time in "sales" since Apple doesn't get paid again. The retailer already paid them at an earlier time.
For example if there was a significant quantity of Apple Watch Gen1 already paid for (Apple was paid) in Targets inventory, which would not be hugely surprising, it would not be part of IDC's figures, but it could be part of Tim Cook's sell-thru for the first week of the shopping season.
Sometimes when we discuss things it's not clear what exactly is being referenced. Mr. Cook didn't directly refute the IDC ship numbers but instead commented with a different but related metric to make the more important note that the Apple Watch is selling well to consumers this Holiday season. To be honest sell-thru tells much more about the Apple Watch market than some specific quarter of shipping data. Apple Watch seems healthy enough.
EDIT: More succinctly pipp'd by ASDASD.
It depends what matters most. IDC makes estimates (poor ones) based on the only information it can get. Apple simply cares about how much product they sell to the end customer. That is the important figure, and that is the figure that IDC does not have.
There's a possibility that IDC's report could have some truth to it, tho the inference they were making would clearly be wrong based on Mr Cook's stated record sales.
IDC "sale" occurs when a product is paid for, which traditionally is the measure anyway. In this case it would be when Apple was paid for it, or minimally shipped with an expectation of payment. Sell-thru includes existing already paid for inventory in stores and online retailers that would not be counted for a second time in "sales" since Apple doesn't get paid again. The retailer already paid them at an earlier time.
For example if there was a significant quantity of Apple Watch Gen1 already paid for (Apple was paid) in Targets inventory, which would not be hugely surprising, it would not be part of IDC's figures, but it could be part of Tim Cook's sell-thru for the first week of the shopping season.
Sometimes when we discuss things it's not clear what exactly is being referenced. Mr. Cook didn't directly refute the IDC ship numbers but instead commented with a different but related metric to make the more important note that the Apple Watch is selling well to consumers this Holiday season. To be honest sell-thru tells much more about the Apple Watch market than some specific quarter of shipping data. Apple Watch seems healthy enough.
EDIT: More succinctly pipp'd by ASDASD.
It depends what matters most. IDC makes estimates (poor ones) based on the only information it can get. Apple simply cares about how much product they sell to the end customer. That is the important figure, and that is the figure that IDC does not have.
IDC quarter on quarter, year on year show apple to be doing poorly. Yet quarter on quarter, year on year Apple have been selling unimaginable quantities of goods, while those painted as successful by IDC either go bankrupt or leave the business entirely.
IDC looks like DC's character Bizarro! It says everything by the opposite meaning.
I obviously cannot speak for anybody else, but I still like my first gen Apple Watch, and continue to wear/use it everyday.
My ongoing gripe with Apple these days is that making regular, incremental updates seems beyond their capacity for far too much of their product line. Hopefully they'll get that sorted out.
This is something that has me scratching my head as well. I know that it takes engineering resources to do - nothing is free - but Apple seems to be leaving money on the table by not making incremental, yearly updates, primarily to the Mac line. Perhaps more than some small amount of lost sales, is the negative narrative it creates among some of its user base (call them "fans"). It is a con against the brand, which is very important to Apple.
How much effort would it take to have the Mac Mini updated with latest Intel CPU line, with perhaps a small storage bump? The iMac's went through a big update last year, so they are not that far out of date, but again, why not give them the CPU and maybe RAM type bump? And then there is the Mac Pro...rumours on the AirPort line, etc.
This is why I don't believe those (you know who you are...) that scream that Tim Cook is all about the money. If he was, then Apple would be more focused on incremental updates to make sales across the line as high as they could be.
I think Apple is perhaps getting too focused on being, well, "focused". Only update a product if there is something "significant" that justifies it: - new form factor & Touch Bar in MBP (and add in the new super fast storage, Touch ID, trackpad - new high resolution 4K and 5K iMacs - iPad Pro with pencil
...but otherwise they are not updating the "non iPhone lines" at all. I think they are doubling down (in their minds) on a product focused strategy, and say that if the update is only incremental, then the benefit is also that, so don't bother. Wait until it is something significant. It might be the most "efficient" use of resources, but it certainly has its risks
The melancholy associated with Apple Watch sales and possibly to some extent Apple sales in general may in part be attributable to the unease surrounding the tense and historical election, its rabid preliminaries and the uncertainty going forward with the political dynamics here and abroad. A multi faceted socio/psycho Malaise that has stopped many in their tracks. Not me though, I am enjoying my Apple tools and toys regardless. Best to all on all sides of that last diatribe!
Well said. I'm certainly still feeling very disappointed. But as you say, I'm looking fwd to getting the AirPods and a new iPhone over the holidays. Probably get the MacBook in early 2017.
Comments
I don't see Apple focusing on Macs primarily anymore. That stopped in 10yrs ago 2006 when Apple was really pushing to get the iPhone out the door. Its a new Apple and there's a reason why Apple dropped Computer from its name and simply went to Apple, Inc. They're not just a computer company anymore. Some of these so called experienced Apple users, you know the ones who have to justify their posts by starting out saying they've used Macs for 25yrs just need to accept the fact that the Mac isn't and will never be Apple's primary focus anymore. Thats not to say Apple doesn't care about the Mac as its still a large chunk of revenue for them, but its just not like it used to be where it was their primary source of revenue and their flagship product.
Hopefully 2017 will bring new, updated Macs and people will just stop complaining about the lack of updates from Apple. If Apple really wanted to, they could just release new Macs every 6 months for the hell of it with minimal to no upgrades just so shut people up (like they used to) but that doesn't make any sense what so ever. Once this so called USB-C debacle is over and everything gets switched over from legacy USB-A (YES Legacy!) then maybe people will calm down a little.
Let's get real though. Apple said they wouldn't release numbers before the original even launched. This is a good strategy and I don't want them to release numbers ever.
Don't be surprised if this becomes the new norm.
Had to visit two different stores, though. That tells me they're selling well. As fast as Apple can make them at least.
https://www.macobserver.com/tmo/article/revisiting-gartner-and-idc-2011-predictions-that-windows-phone-would-pass-i
The thing I find kind of interesting about these old predictions is that while they vastly overestimated Microsoft and vastly underestimated Android, they actually weren't too far off on iPhone.
Q3 2016 on the other hand had some people (that follow these things) expecting a refresh so sales tail off, and then the update at end of Q3 with potentially limited availability, while the product line was then very stale. Voila - poor quarter. But that doesn't say anything about how the updated Series 1 and new Series 2 are doing in the market actually.
So this is what I believed happened - the headline (70% sales drop) - speaks of catastrophe, and so Tim Cook felt the need to correct that in fact, in this quarter (calendar Q4 2016), sales are doing great. Tim didn't refute the IDC number for Q3 - he pointed out that AW is selling very well and on track for a record quarter.
Most people can't seem to get their head out of their own arse these days, but for those that really want to know what goes on in the market, you have to look beyond single quarter headline numbers that have easy explanations for why they are either up or down.
I figure Sog would have been first, but you and a number of others beat him to this news thread.
Honestly anyone who knows anything know IDC has no idea what they are talking about and they are the largest market share news tolls on the internet and you do not feed the trolls and Cook just feed them.
You're reading way too much into it. All it means, in context, is the actual numbers sold in relation to numbers shipped (the latter of which is what the IDCs of the world estimate). I'll bet that the number shipped went up too. We'll know soon enough.
IDC "sale" occurs when a product is paid for, which traditionally is the measure anyway. In this case it would be when Apple was paid for it, or minimally shipped with an expectation of payment. Sell-thru includes existing already paid for inventory in stores and online retailers that would not be counted for a second time in "sales" since Apple doesn't get paid again. The retailer already paid them at an earlier time.
For example if there was a significant quantity of Apple Watch Gen1 already paid for (Apple was paid) in Targets inventory, which would not be hugely surprising, it would not be part of IDC's figures, but it could be part of Tim Cook's sell-thru for the first week of the shopping season.
Sometimes when we discuss things it's not clear what exactly is being referenced. Mr. Cook didn't directly refute the IDC ship numbers but instead commented with a different but related metric to make the more important note that the Apple Watch is selling well to consumers this Holiday season. To be honest sell-thru tells much more about the Apple Watch market than some specific quarter of shipping data. Apple Watch seems healthy enough.
EDIT: More succinctly pipp'd by ASDASD.
Also, I think Apple should stop providing guidance, as many good companies have the ba!!s to do.
It depends what matters most. IDC makes estimates (poor ones) based on the only information it can get. Apple simply cares about how much product they sell to the end customer. That is the important figure, and that is the figure that IDC does not have.
How much effort would it take to have the Mac Mini updated with latest Intel CPU line, with perhaps a small storage bump? The iMac's went through a big update last year, so they are not that far out of date, but again, why not give them the CPU and maybe RAM type bump? And then there is the Mac Pro...rumours on the AirPort line, etc.
This is why I don't believe those (you know who you are...) that scream that Tim Cook is all about the money. If he was, then Apple would be more focused on incremental updates to make sales across the line as high as they could be.
I think Apple is perhaps getting too focused on being, well, "focused". Only update a product if there is something "significant" that justifies it:
- new form factor & Touch Bar in MBP (and add in the new super fast storage, Touch ID, trackpad
- new high resolution 4K and 5K iMacs
- iPad Pro with pencil
...but otherwise they are not updating the "non iPhone lines" at all. I think they are doubling down (in their minds) on a product focused strategy, and say that if the update is only incremental, then the benefit is also that, so don't bother. Wait until it is something significant. It might be the most "efficient" use of resources, but it certainly has its risks
Best.
P.S. I love my Apple Watch