Steve Jobs Will Resign --The Writing is On The Wall
I was just checking out the Merrill Lynch thread, so I downloaded their recommendation which is dated Jan 6 (today) and have come to the conclusion that Steve Jobs will more than likely resign from his post as CEO of Apple.
He will most likely take an interim position while they wait for a replacement. But trying to stay on board Apple as this point is going to spell doom for his reputation, and I think he'll try to pass the buck to someone else. I don't know if this announcement will happen tomorrow, but if stock prices fall to around $10 over the next year as Merrill Lynch suggests, then there will be no reason for him to stay on.
Some of the highlights from the report:
He will most likely take an interim position while they wait for a replacement. But trying to stay on board Apple as this point is going to spell doom for his reputation, and I think he'll try to pass the buck to someone else. I don't know if this announcement will happen tomorrow, but if stock prices fall to around $10 over the next year as Merrill Lynch suggests, then there will be no reason for him to stay on.
Some of the highlights from the report:
- We are reinstating coverage with a Sell opinion.
- Although Apple makes great products, in our view the new product pipeline looks skimpy and we expect continued market share losses. A product differentiation strategy is difficult in a business increasingly commoditizing.
- Apple's challenge is to try to find a balance between revenue growth and costs. Despite a relatively high gross margin, Apple is posting operating losses offest by income. We don't thing their retail store strategy will work.
- Our estimates are below consensus. We believe that Apple's December quarter sales should be $1.45 billion, $50 million below the Street consensus, with EPS of $0.02 a penny below consensus. For F2003 our estimate of $0.12 is roughly 50% below consensus.
- We believe that FY2003 consensus earnings estimates could come down near our forecasts, given that in its recently released 10K Apple indicated that interest and other income should decline substantially in F2003, particularly in the second half. Even though Apple's 10K was released in mid-December, the large majority of analysts covering the shares have not yet revised their estimates. With operating income expected to be mostly negative this year, forecasts for Apple turn in positive net income depend entirely on the interest and other income line.
- The stock still looks expensive on P/E or P/S ratios. Although the $11 per share in net cash acts as a buffer, we theoretically could see the stock trading down toward $10 over the next year.
Comments
Nothing to see here.... don't feed... I beg you!
Just another doomsday prediction, I have heard it all before. Do not try to stir up the shit storm the night before a good day. Ass****inghole.
Steve will stay until he dies.
<strong>... trying to stay on board Apple as this point is going to spell doom for his reputation, and I think he'll try to pass the buck to someone else. </strong><hr></blockquote>
True, but I don't think he's going, whatever else Steve may think, he thinks Apple is his company and I think he'll stick with it. If Jobs were to leave, it would signal to investors that things are really bad. Apple lacks a strong culture -- they have teetered this way and that under each successive CEO change -- and are only just getting one now. I don't like Jobs, but if he leaves, that's proably the end as no one at Apple has shown evidence over the last ten years of knowing what to do and when to do it. Jobs gives them that, even if he's wrong about price, they're at least moving in a direction, unfortunately market share keeps moving in the other direction.
Edit, I mean true about passing the buck, CEO's have that habit, they haven't reached that point yet, not in my mind, certainly not in his, and let's face it, anyone who get rid of him is terrified of him.
[ 01-06-2003: Message edited by: Matsu ]</p>
Obviously Apple doesn't have the CEO it needs right now to pull it out of this corner it's been painted into.
<strong>Steve didnt screw up Apple, he totally, totally saved it. Apple is headed in the right direction. Merril Lynch says this after a load of Apple loving analysts say the stock is in for a jump? Merril Lynch is bunk.
Just another doomsday prediction, I have heard it all before. Do not try to stir up the shit storm the night before a good day. Ass****inghole.
Steve will stay until he dies.</strong><hr></blockquote>
Dude, you've drunk too much kewlaid. Apple is a company, not a religion.
<strong>If Jobs were to leave, it would signal to investors that things are really bad. Apple lacks a strong culture -- they have teetered this way and that under each successive CEO change -- and are only just getting one now. </strong><hr></blockquote>
Matsu, this isn't a popularity contest. Steve Jobs leaving wouldn't be a blow to investors but to iFanatics.
As far as Apple lacking a strong "culture"-- Apple's culture is the only thing that has allowed it to survive throughout the years.
Steve's not going anywhere.
It's enough to make your head spin. The culture revolves around the feel and application of the machines themselves, the corporate direction has been all over the friggin place and their marketshare has erroded each and every time a change has taken place, including Steve's tenure (though I do think that's he's made it a lot less than what it might have been)
1) Merrill's research, and that of any firm on the street, will be overly pessimistic on any firm that is considered a risky investment. Being burned by Spitzer and all of the lawsuits brought by investors will make everyone think twice about beating a drum on risky investments.
2) Reinstatement of coverage usually means that the person previously assigned to that stock was let go or left the firm, meaning a new analyst is on board. If I were a new analyst on a risky stock in today's markets, I too would be pessimistic.
3) "skimpy" is not a term I have ever heard a professional analyst use to describe a company
4) Stating that the stock price will fall below its cash value is just plain silly. So all of the patents, millions of customers, all of the software, all of the other intangibles including human resources are worth a negative value? I hope they are kidding.
5) "We don't think their retail strategy will work". Really? What facts back that up?
6)Estimates are below concensus. The $50mill is paltry, the 50% below 03 is way out on a limb.
The only way any of this makes any sort of sense is if ML is trying by opinion to make the stock more interesting as a takeover target. With the net cash on board, the takeover could be financed without any debt. Possible still is that debt at todays rates could be taken and the cash used to finance some other acquisitions or investments.
Dunno, but there is a lot fishy about this.
Oh, and Steve had very little to do with the strategy of moving from cisc to risc eons ago. Even further remember that NeXT went from Mot to Intel so his track record indicates no unwillingness to move processor platforms.
**** off and die!
if you werent in new zealand i would kick you wimpy little ass!
your ass steve jobs hater.
you are pond scum!
your an evil little troll!
im sick of little nerds like you spewing filth on these boards!
we should nuke you little ****ed up kiwi country~!
I see this more with the addition of the Apple stores, which I really think are going to kill Apple in the long term (read: closings and layoffs). Fixed costs and overhead--what the hell are they thinking?
I think Apple is in a perfect place to be saved again--but not by Steve Jobs. I will give him credit for pointing Apple in the right direction (except the stores, of course) but that's where I draw the line. Apple needs a business-savvy CEO, not a self-proclaimed visionary. Worship Hour is over kids. Wake up.