i wonder if the Apple investment in Foxconn will allow a means of back-door repatriation of a bit of their cash hoard? give cash to Foxconn overseas, no fear of double taxation, a few thousands jobs to build the plant, plant is built, several hundred to run it, Apple reaps the rewards of their overseas investment in terms of tax breaks & sweetheart deals & is able to raise cash holdings in the US.
You must have missed the "30,000 - 50,000" jobs thing.
I'm not able to reconcile the 2 bits of information. Automated manufacturing means less human intervention. How exactly are the 30-50k jobs being created? You don't need that many people to manage the automation plant. Are these permanent jobs or temporary work contracts for installing and setting up the automation plant?
I can't imagine a scale of manufacturing that uses automation and needs 50k jobs. I'm definitely missing something here.
My formal education is focused on robotics/automation. While it's possible that there could be that many jobs involved, the amount of production required would be huge. If the robotics/automation used is rather reliable, a rather light number of technicians for fixing/training the robots is required (unless they're using custom machines for each manufacturing cell, if you train one, you've trained many) and there's not much regular recurring need for humans changing things. It'd likely be a largely lights-out factory. Where most of the humans would be required are for putting things into trucks, dealing with deliveries, dealing with things that don't recur in a manner that are cheap/easy to automate, but even that's not that many jobs.
Even if they keep updating the technology on a yearly basis, that still doesn't mean that many employed people to make it happen, with how things are assembled and tested: I've been there, done that, on a clean room automated environment (I worked 4 years in a CD production plant). Because they'd be making displays, chances are this will be a clean room facility, though it may not need as stringent cleanliness as even a compact disc requires.
Unfortunately the US has screwed itself because of it's education system. You go to a Ph.D program and pretty much 80-90% of the PhD candidates are foreign born. Americans are getting degrees in psychology and sociology instead of STEM creating a huge opportunity for foreign workers especially foreign Software Engineers.
You hit the problem on the head Safi. Steve Jobs made it clear, that contrary to popular understanding, the greatest impediment to moving production to the US was the shortage of engineers (not just software BTW, there are many other engineering jobs necessary to run a heavily automated plant). This is an opportunity with the new administration to shift back towards a training and education model focused on meeting job demand, rather than funding each persons "self-discovery." Indeed, most of these type of engineering jobs won't require Phd, or even traditional 4 year schools. Let the revolution begin.
PS, it is wonderful to hear that there is so much discussion of creating good paying jobs in the tech and other industries. Previous administrations of both parties had given up on this, so kudos to a fresh start and innovative thinking.
The U.S. doesn't have a shortage of engineers. This long standing myth has been debunked various times and was even reported on to congressed by two professors last year. Importing H-1b visa immigrants or outsourcing overseas in merely a way to cut cost.
There are a frack ton of Engineers and Scientists that are American born. You aren't one or you'd goddamn well know that. Most of us have decided after being in this pissant industry that our skills transfer to other interests. There isn't a lack of engineering talent in this country. Most of us just aren't that interested in the actual areas of growth and focus.
And American corporations probably laid off a ton of engineers in 2008-2010. Its how they get rid of people in the 50s and 60s. Go back and watch "Falling Down" with Michael Douglas back in 1993.
Unfortunately the US has screwed itself because of it's education system. You go to a Ph.D program and pretty much 80-90% of the PhD candidates are foreign born. Americans are getting degrees in psychology and sociology instead of STEM creating a huge opportunity for foreign workers especially foreign Software Engineers.
You hit the problem on the head Safi. Steve Jobs made it clear, that contrary to popular understanding, the greatest impediment to moving production to the US was the shortage of engineers (not just software BTW, there are many other engineering jobs necessary to run a heavily automated plant). This is an opportunity with the new administration to shift back towards a training and education model focused on meeting job demand, rather than funding each persons "self-discovery." Indeed, most of these type of engineering jobs won't require Phd, or even traditional 4 year schools. Let the revolution begin.
PS, it is wonderful to hear that there is so much discussion of creating good paying jobs in the tech and other industries. Previous administrations of both parties had given up on this, so kudos to a fresh start and innovative thinking.
Agreed, the lack of qualified people is the biggest problem in the US. I guess Trump's focus on more vocational/technical skills type education would be a good first step.
I suspect that lower level form of tech ability vocational training* produces (although very welcomed of course) is not what's going to be needed here. It's the academic PhDs and DScs we need. The lack of emphasis on the sciences is the problem and in a culture that is encouraged to not even believe science, what hope is there without brining in H1Bs from 'enlightened' cultures?
*Vocational education is education that prepares people to work in a trade, a craft, as a technician, or in support roles in professions such as engineering, accountancy, nursing, medicine, architecture, or law. Craft vocations are usually based on manual or practical activities and are traditionally non-academic but related to a specific trade or occupation. Vocational education is sometimes referred to as career education or technical education.
Engineering is a HARD subject. Kids today mostly want instant gratification. Even my grandkids are really not interested in STEM despite my attempts to get them interested. They were far more interested in playing computer games. Asking them where the tech they are using came from and who designed it just seemed to go over their heads. They know it all comes from China and Japan.
Then I got them a visit to a high tech race car builder. They have a different opinion now. There is hope yet.
But this is not a new thing. As a now retired Engineer I know that I had to work a lot harder than my roommates who were doing SOFT subjects (Business Studies, English History) and this was in the mid 1970's.
I'm still tinkering with machines. The new Full size Steam Loco that I'm helping to build should steam for the first time this year.
Take your grandkids to see Hidden Figures. Such a good movie and its shows how important math/science was to the space program.
Unfortunately the US has screwed itself because of it's education system. You go to a Ph.D program and pretty much 80-90% of the PhD candidates are foreign born. Americans are getting degrees in psychology and sociology instead of STEM creating a huge opportunity for foreign workers especially foreign Software Engineers.
You hit the problem on the head Safi. Steve Jobs made it clear, that contrary to popular understanding, the greatest impediment to moving production to the US was the shortage of engineers (not just software BTW, there are many other engineering jobs necessary to run a heavily automated plant). This is an opportunity with the new administration to shift back towards a training and education model focused on meeting job demand, rather than funding each persons "self-discovery." Indeed, most of these type of engineering jobs won't require Phd, or even traditional 4 year schools. Let the revolution begin.
PS, it is wonderful to hear that there is so much discussion of creating good paying jobs in the tech and other industries. Previous administrations of both parties had given up on this, so kudos to a fresh start and innovative thinking.
The U.S. doesn't have a shortage of engineers. This long standing myth has been debunked various times and was even reported on to congressed by two professors last year. Importing H-1b visa immigrants or outsourcing overseas in merely a way to cut cost.
Yep, remember when Apple, Google, etc. had colluded on not hiring the other's applicants to keep salaries down. Its about money and cost cutting. Like when Disney World dumped their computer system staff a couple years ago and hired an outsourcing firm from India.
This is why Tech companies supported "Immigration Reform" so that they could bring in a lot of cheaper programmers and engineers from outside the company. Hopefully that is dead issue with President Trump.
There are more engineers produced via college universities than there are enough jobs to fill. As a matter of fact, after adjusting for inflation, the income of many engineering professions has diminished overtime precisely because of this oversupply of engineers.
Even the IEEE itself reported years ago that it is a long standing myth, which goes back to the 1960's, and has had no evidence whatsoever, but is still perpetuated on by the average American:
There was a huge debate in congress a few years ago and reports even surfaced that the unemployment rate for engineers are higher than other professions, like nurses and lawyers, mainly because there are more incoming engineers from colleges than jobs available:
The congressional debate ultimately concluded with the reason for this perpetuated myth was simply to reduce labor cost for engineers by getting more of them into the profession, ultimately dimension there price. Why people on this site choose to talk with little knowledge on the actual facts is beyond me.
Unfortunately the US has screwed itself because of it's education system. You go to a Ph.D program and pretty much 80-90% of the PhD candidates are foreign born. Americans are getting degrees in psychology and sociology instead of STEM creating a huge opportunity for foreign workers especially foreign Software Engineers.
You hit the problem on the head Safi. Steve Jobs made it clear, that contrary to popular understanding, the greatest impediment to moving production to the US was the shortage of engineers (not just software BTW, there are many other engineering jobs necessary to run a heavily automated plant). This is an opportunity with the new administration to shift back towards a training and education model focused on meeting job demand, rather than funding each persons "self-discovery." Indeed, most of these type of engineering jobs won't require Phd, or even traditional 4 year schools. Let the revolution begin.
PS, it is wonderful to hear that there is so much discussion of creating good paying jobs in the tech and other industries. Previous administrations of both parties had given up on this, so kudos to a fresh start and innovative thinking.
The U.S. doesn't have a shortage of engineers. This long standing myth has been debunked various times and was even reported on to congressed by two professors last year. Importing H-1b visa immigrants or outsourcing overseas in merely a way to cut cost.
Yep, remember when Apple, Google, etc. had colluded on not hiring the other's applicants to keep salaries down. Its about money and cost cutting. Like when Disney World dumped their computer system staff a couple years ago and hired an outsourcing firm from India.
This is why Tech companies supported "Immigration Reform" so that they could bring in a lot of cheaper programmers and engineers from outside the company. Hopefully that is dead issue with President Trump.
You must have missed the "30,000 - 50,000" jobs thing.
I'm not able to reconcile the 2 bits of information. Automated manufacturing means less human intervention. How exactly are the 30-50k jobs being created? You don't need that many people to manage the automation plant. Are these permanent jobs or temporary work contracts for installing and setting up the automation plant?
I can't imagine a scale of manufacturing that uses automation and needs 50k jobs. I'm definitely missing something here.
I do think they added a 0 in a couple places... And I'm sure the number is the entire supply chain based on 2010 jobs (drivers*, Inventory etc). Running a plant 7x24 requires at least 5 shifts of people (trainees, vacation temps, 1,2,3,weekend 1, weekend 2) so a plant that housed 500 people at one time is really 3000 staff. On top of that, you have building (non-robotic) maintenance, grounds crews, and of course 4 management teams under the plant head.
I wouldn't be surprised if it were 3-5,000 (THOUSAND), which is a serious tech plant today in the US. but 30K... only if they are counting the number of payday loan tellers in that group.
and I do think you may see that number in the 10s of thousands of people who go onsite to 'build' the factory. but that's only 'months' of effort.
By the time the plant is built, I'm guessing that driverless technologies will be at a point where most logistics will be robotic too (warehouse/FedEx to loading dock, and drone bots then unloading the truck pallets into the appropriate bins, and dronier-bots doing the bin running to the appropriate assembly station.
If you have 10 lines each with 10-30 robots, my guess is you'll have 200 people on the floor during production, overseeing internal supply chain, and QAing the QA system, and ready to repair swap out defective robots.
I think the entire phone could be put together with 100% automation. It would save on shipping the phones across the ocean.
yes, but that is more for QA tolerances than labor reduction. I'm guessing there are still several steps where a robots doesn't have the dexterity to handle 'random' where the human hand/eye can deal with it.
Placing a plant in the US just puts you in line for political and tax advantages (you're eliminating maybe $2 in cost in the flight from China to Memphis per phone) If you can avoid a 1% tariff on the retail price ($6) that's the big win, and to get a couple Senators on your side, it's a bigger win on the end game of repatriation of foreign profits.
Unfortunately the US has screwed itself because of it's education system. You go to a Ph.D program and pretty much 80-90% of the PhD candidates are foreign born. Americans are getting degrees in psychology and sociology instead of STEM creating a huge opportunity for foreign workers especially foreign Software Engineers.
You hit the problem on the head Safi. Steve Jobs made it clear, that contrary to popular understanding, the greatest impediment to moving production to the US was the shortage of engineers (not just software BTW, there are many other engineering jobs necessary to run a heavily automated plant). This is an opportunity with the new administration to shift back towards a training and education model focused on meeting job demand, rather than funding each persons "self-discovery." Indeed, most of these type of engineering jobs won't require Phd, or even traditional 4 year schools. Let the revolution begin.
PS, it is wonderful to hear that there is so much discussion of creating good paying jobs in the tech and other industries. Previous administrations of both parties had given up on this, so kudos to a fresh start and innovative thinking.
The U.S. doesn't have a shortage of engineers. This long standing myth has been debunked various times and was even reported on to congressed by two professors last year. Importing H-1b visa immigrants or outsourcing overseas in merely a way to cut cost.
Yep, remember when Apple, Google, etc. had colluded on not hiring the other's applicants to keep salaries down. Its about money and cost cutting. Like when Disney World dumped their computer system staff a couple years ago and hired an outsourcing firm from India.
This is why Tech companies supported "Immigration Reform" so that they could bring in a lot of cheaper programmers and engineers from outside the company. Hopefully that is dead issue with President Trump.
Also in regards to software engineering, in the early 2000's a lot of companies simply started hiring cheap junior developers in India to keep cost down before the H-1B epidemic took over. Now, the new big push (mostly by Apple) is to get everyone to code in elementary or high school to create an oversupply of software engineers, thus lower the cost. How normal people can rationally conclude that everyone should learn to code is beyond me.
You must have missed the "30,000 - 50,000" jobs thing.
I'm not able to reconcile the 2 bits of information. Automated manufacturing means less human intervention. How exactly are the 30-50k jobs being created? You don't need that many people to manage the automation plant. Are these permanent jobs or temporary work contracts for installing and setting up the automation plant?
I can't imagine a scale of manufacturing that uses automation and needs 50k jobs. I'm definitely missing something here.
Probably 30-50k jobs needed to build the plant in record time to get up and running.
No single facility creates between 30-50 thousand jobs. 50 thousand people will not be needed to make the world demand in displays or any other component.
Unfortunately the US has screwed itself because of it's education system. You go to a Ph.D program and pretty much 80-90% of the PhD candidates are foreign born. Americans are getting degrees in psychology and sociology instead of STEM creating a huge opportunity for foreign workers especially foreign Software Engineers.
You hit the problem on the head Safi. Steve Jobs made it clear, that contrary to popular understanding, the greatest impediment to moving production to the US was the shortage of engineers (not just software BTW, there are many other engineering jobs necessary to run a heavily automated plant). This is an opportunity with the new administration to shift back towards a training and education model focused on meeting job demand, rather than funding each persons "self-discovery." Indeed, most of these type of engineering jobs won't require Phd, or even traditional 4 year schools. Let the revolution begin.
PS, it is wonderful to hear that there is so much discussion of creating good paying jobs in the tech and other industries. Previous administrations of both parties had given up on this, so kudos to a fresh start and innovative thinking.
The U.S. doesn't have a shortage of engineers. This long standing myth has been debunked various times and was even reported on to congressed by two professors last year. Importing H-1b visa immigrants or outsourcing overseas in merely a way to cut cost.
It is very hard to hire an immigrant over an American. In order to be granted an H1B the company must prove that there was no American available that could take that job and the employee that is being hired must have a relatively higher salary compared to other starters. What you are referring to are probably low level IT workers or CISCO system operators. There is no shortage of them in America, but there is a huge need for skilled software engineers and researchers. Do you think it helps MIT cut costs when they import foreign born Ph.D candidates by the hundreds?
In a growing economy, there is always demand and a shortage of Engineers/Doctors/STEM people. Go to the immigrations website of most major countries and they will ask you to apply if you fall in the 'short fall' category. The German economy for instance has maintained it's strength for quite a while and it is backed by one of the best education systems in the world. When someone goes for a STEM degree to Germany, they end up with a job almost every time because there is huge demand. It's the same in the US minus the educational system. The strength of the US is in it's ability to attract the best and the most hardworking people from around the world.
If you don't support outsourcing to cheaper labor you might as well end world trade as well and ask for an ultra socialist government where economic growth isn't everything and rabid consumerism doesn't drive society. Learn to compete or become irrelevant. Petition governments to provide you free high quality education so that you can compete with the impoverished third world worker who 'took your job'.
As an H1B visa recipient originally from England back in 1990 I can verify (at that time at least) your description of the difficulty and high standards set is very accurate. I later obtained a green card and citizenship and hopefully have contributed to my new country.
The entire process from planning construction manufacture of robots and establishing an ongoing massive
business together with local business pin action will create lotsa jobs.
Love to see this.
There are more engineers produced via college universities than there are enough jobs to fill. As a matter of fact, after adjusting for inflation, the income of many engineering professions has diminished overtime precisely because of this oversupply of engineers.
Even the IEEE itself reported years ago that it is a long standing myth, which goes back to the 1960's, and has had no evidence whatsoever, but is still perpetuated on by the average American:
There was a huge debate in congress a few years ago and reports even surfaced that the unemployment rate for engineers are higher than other professions, like nurses and lawyers, mainly because there are more incoming engineers from colleges than jobs available:
The congressional debate ultimately concluded with the reason for this perpetuated myth was simply to reduce labor cost for engineers by getting more of them into the profession, ultimately dimension there price. Why people on this site choose to talk with little knowledge on the actual facts is beyond me.
I don't think it's the issue here anyway — setting up an LCD or OLED plant I mean.
Of course the production engineers in the field of display fabrication are going to be brought in from Taiwan, China, Japan or Korea, because that's where the knowledge and experience resides at present. The machines that make up display lines are made there, and the makers of these machines will have to supply the engineering to set up the fabs, at least temporarily.
If you guys feel strongly about this question, I wish you all would comment specifically on whether the US has the engineers who have training or experience in mass production of OLED or LCD displays.
I'd rather the $7B be invested here, it benefits us all. And if we have to give our companies tax breaks like others do so that we can alleviate product dumping...fine. That seems to be the problem with us, we're so righteous and try and play by the "rules" of the free market except we live in a world that does the opposite and we wonder why we lose. We need to get over ourselves.
So corporate welfare is the answer. Side note I find it odd how opposed to welfare conservatives are (not saying you are), but how open they are to it for corporations, who (as Romney reminded us) "are people too".
Comments
give cash to Foxconn overseas, no fear of double taxation, a few thousands jobs to build the plant, plant is built, several hundred to run it, Apple reaps the rewards of their overseas investment in terms of tax breaks & sweetheart deals & is able to raise cash holdings in the US.
Even if they keep updating the technology on a yearly basis, that still doesn't mean that many employed people to make it happen, with how things are assembled and tested: I've been there, done that, on a clean room automated environment (I worked 4 years in a CD production plant). Because they'd be making displays, chances are this will be a clean room facility, though it may not need as stringent cleanliness as even a compact disc requires.
with Michael Douglas back in 1993.
I suspect that lower level form of tech ability vocational training* produces (although very welcomed of course) is not what's going to be needed here. It's the academic PhDs and DScs we need. The lack of emphasis on the sciences is the problem and in a culture that is encouraged to not even believe science, what hope is there without brining in H1Bs from 'enlightened' cultures?
*Vocational education is education that prepares people to work in a trade, a craft, as a technician, or in support roles in professions such as engineering, accountancy, nursing, medicine, architecture, or law. Craft vocations are usually based on manual or practical activities and are traditionally non-academic but related to a specific trade or occupation. Vocational education is sometimes referred to as career education or technical education.
Take your grandkids to see Hidden Figures. Such a good movie and its shows how important math/science was to the space program.
This is why Tech companies supported "Immigration Reform" so that they could bring in a lot of cheaper programmers and engineers from outside the company. Hopefully that is dead issue with President Trump.
http://www.urban.org/research/publication/eye-storm
http://www.rand.org/pubs/conf_proceedings/CF194.html
https://www.theatlantic.com/education/archive/2014/03/the-myth-of-the-science-and-engineering-shortage/284359/
Even the IEEE itself reported years ago that it is a long standing myth, which goes back to the 1960's, and has had no evidence whatsoever, but is still perpetuated on by the average American:
http://spectrum.ieee.org/static/the-stem-crisis-is-a-myth-an-ongoing-discussion
There was a huge debate in congress a few years ago and reports even surfaced that the unemployment rate for engineers are higher than other professions, like nurses and lawyers, mainly because there are more incoming engineers from colleges than jobs available:
https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R43061.pdf
The congressional debate ultimately concluded with the reason for this perpetuated myth was simply to reduce labor cost for engineers by getting more of them into the profession, ultimately dimension there price. Why people on this site choose to talk with little knowledge on the actual facts is beyond me.
I wouldn't be surprised if it were 3-5,000 (THOUSAND), which is a serious tech plant today in the US. but 30K... only if they are counting the number of payday loan tellers in that group.
and I do think you may see that number in the 10s of thousands of people who go onsite to 'build' the factory. but that's only 'months' of effort.
By the time the plant is built, I'm guessing that driverless technologies will be at a point where most logistics will be robotic too (warehouse/FedEx to loading dock, and drone bots then unloading the truck pallets into the appropriate bins, and dronier-bots doing the bin running to the appropriate assembly station.
If you have 10 lines each with 10-30 robots, my guess is you'll have 200 people on the floor during production, overseeing internal supply chain, and QAing the QA system, and ready to repair swap out defective robots.
yes, but that is more for QA tolerances than labor reduction. I'm guessing there are still several steps where a robots doesn't have the dexterity to handle 'random' where the human hand/eye can deal with it.
Placing a plant in the US just puts you in line for political and tax advantages (you're eliminating maybe $2 in cost in the flight from China to Memphis per phone) If you can avoid a 1% tariff on the retail price ($6) that's the big win, and to get a couple Senators on your side, it's a bigger win on the end game of repatriation of foreign profits.
Of course the production engineers in the field of display fabrication are going to be brought in from Taiwan, China, Japan or Korea, because that's where the knowledge and experience resides at present. The machines that make up display lines are made there, and the makers of these machines will have to supply the engineering to set up the fabs, at least temporarily.
If you guys feel strongly about this question, I wish you all would comment specifically on whether the US has the engineers who have training or experience in mass production of OLED or LCD displays.