Data suggests tens of millions of iPhone users ready to fuel 2017 'supercycle'

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  • Reply 41 of 56
    They keep bumping up future sales numbers but it's unlikely Apple will be able to keep up with supply if demand goes through the roof next year. And after that Wall Street will claim how everyone who ever wanted an iPhone has one and the stock will quickly crater as iPhone growth goes to zero.
  • Reply 42 of 56
    cornchipcornchip Posts: 1,943member
    I keep waiting on used prices to come down. They don't. It's still hard to get a 64GB 5s for under $200. That's what I paid last year! Wife lost another phone & I was hoping a 64GB 6 would be down to around $200 by now. Nowhere close. Looks like I'm putting a new battery & power button in the 'ol 4...
    edited April 2017 Soli
  • Reply 43 of 56
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,508member
    melgross said:
    as a result, people who planned to upgrade the year after, on their normal two year cycle, decided instead to upgrade a year earlier, and the upsurge in sales occurred.

    but what happened next year with the S series? Well, a lot of upgraders for these phones already upgraded the year earlier, and so weren't available for the next year. So sales declined.
    An examination of iPhone ASPs shows that during FY2016 (iPhone 6S/6S Plus) Apple sold more iPhone 6 units than it did iPhone 6S units.

    Ergo, the base of 6/6S iPhones will be at least 2 years old come October 2017, but importantly, with well over half (2/3s?) being 3 years old technologically.

    Average December quarter bi-annual upgrade rate of the last 4 years (5S/C, 6/Plus, 6S/Plus, 7/Plus)) is ~36"%".  Applying that rate to FQ1/2016 unit sales (74,772,000) yields FQ1/2018 unit sales of  101 Million units.

    I believe Apple is going to announce an iPhone 7S (4.7"), an iPhone 7S Plus (5.5") AND an iPhone "X"*. (OLED 5.0") that will be offered at $969 with 128 GB memory.  Although this price may limit iPhone "X" sales it will raise iPhone ASPs significantly nevertheless.

    I also believe the iPhone "X" will only be available during FY2018 as a special iPhone, that will be replaced by an iPhone 8/Plus in FY2019.  By discontinuing the iPhone "X" Apple makes room for a $769 iPhone 8 (64 GB 5.0" OLED) and an $869 iPhone 8 Plus (64 GB 5.8" OLED) in FY2018.

    Without the iPhone "X" I do not see iPhone unit sales growing by the implied 36% bi-annual rate.  With an iPhone "X" I see that growth rate as very doable.
    36% biannual rate would be very good these days where smartphone sales are increasing, on average by 4% per year.
  • Reply 44 of 56
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,508member
    Looks like those who are gonna short the stock are getting their buy orders in early.
    (sic)

    I honestly don't see how Apple will sell more each year on year. There are only an finite number of customers and with the main competition (Galaxy S8/S8+) generally getting a good reception the competition will be fiercer than ever. Then if Google ever gets its 'Pixel' line properly sorted out then we are in for a three way split in many markets if not an increase in the % of device running Android.
    With that, how can these guys say that there is gonna be a bumper year with a straight face?

    All of the S series phones together, in a year, have about 40-45 million in sales. That's, by far, the greatest competition to the iPhone, but it is a rather poor follower. We don't read that much, but it's true. Overall, Apple has lost the possibility of having a large marketshare around the world. Why? Because they don't care. The average price for an iPhone is now $700, while the average Android model is $210. There is simply no way for Apple to capture that market without changing their direction, and making a competitively priced phone.

    apple won't do that because of their extensive eco-system. Their phones need to perform well enough there for customers to be happy. Samsung, and other Android and AOSP OEMs don't have ecosystems at all, so they don't worry about that.
    edited April 2017 baconstang
  • Reply 45 of 56
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,508member

    sog35 said:
    melgross said:
    I can see this happening because the original super cycle, and the drop in sales the next year was misunderstood.

    i believe the 6/6+ series sales rose 48% from the year before, and the 6S/6S+ series dropped 15% from that level. Consequently, people were saying that Apple had hit a peak, and it would be downwards after that. But the reality is different, and for good reasons. Many people upgrade every two years. The 6/6+ had a major redesign. Two new phones instead of one, and, for Apple, a super sized model too. As a result, upgraders went wild. The opportunity to match the sizes of Android models was too much of a draw to ignore.

    as a result, people who planned to upgrade the year after, on their normal two year cycle, decided instead to upgrade a year earlier, and the upsurge in sales occurred.

    but what happened next year with the S series? Well, a lot of upgraders for these phones already upgraded the year earlier, and so weren't available for the next year. So sales declined. Oddly enough, I haven't read that from anyone, anywhere. But sales were still 30% higher than for the 5S series. My expectations were that many would return for the 7/7+ cycle, and they did. Sales are up. More sales last quarter than Apple ever had during a holiday season. Even if the extra days were subtracted, sales would still have about about the same.

    so now we have the third year we're in. The next phones later this year will be the third generation after that 6/6+ series. Even if we didn't have (supposedly) an all new OLED based model, we could expect increased sales. By how much, we can only guess. But it would be there. The new model will help to increase them further.
    You are absolutely correct

    Knowing this information in 2015/2016 could have netted anyone big $$$.

    I'll admit I did not foresee the huge drop in 6s sales compared to 6. If I did I would have sold all my AAPL shares at $130 and waited for the stock to tank with the 6s to $90.

    There might be another opportunity with the iPhoneX, but I'm not sure. IMO, the iPhone6 mega cycle was a one time event. I doubt we see 45% unit growth again like with the 6. Probably more like 25% growth, which is more stable.
    I agree. I don't see another 48% sales surge. Quite frankly, that was shocking! If we hit even 20% I will be estatic
  • Reply 46 of 56
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,508member

    Sure they are ready, but question if upgrade to iPhone or move/upgrade to Android device. Apple would be much more ready if it did not experiment with phone jack removal and disabling remote in-line controls just to promote that fancy but so-so clips... pardon me... earbuds that do not represent any sound quality and hurt some people's ears (I use full headphones like many do). So they may decide for some if next device is going to be iPhone or good bye Apple phone if they at least provide dongle that allows wired in-line control of phone with some quality headphones (I use Sennheisers so do not ask about quality if you haven't tried anything on that level and above).
    I think your reasoning is backwards here. There is no evidence that removing g the headphone jack cost Apple more than a handful of sales. It may have gained them the same number. They do include a perfectly good adapter that works well.

    you can use any headphones you like with the iPhone. You can even use much better ones than the Sennheisers, such as the Abyss. If you haven't heard those, then you haven't heard the best.
    edited April 2017
  • Reply 47 of 56
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,508member
    brucemc said:
    I honestly don't see how Apple will sell more each year on year. There are only an finite number of customers and with the main competition (Galaxy S8/S8+) generally getting a good reception the competition will be fiercer than ever. Then if Google ever gets its 'Pixel' line properly sorted out then we are in for a three way split in many markets if not an increase in the % of device running Android.
    With that, how can these guys say that there is gonna be a bumper year with a straight face?
    Although debating with someone who has a preconceived outcome is generally useless, it is Friday so why not try for fun?
    - Clearly the iPhone will not be able to increase sales "forever".  That is simply a stupid straw man statement.
    - iPhone sales do not necessarily increase "every year" (as last year showed0 but have & are expected to increase when looked at 2-3 year periods
    - The sales battle isn't really Apple vs. Samsung, Apple vs. Google, etc.  It is iPhone vs. high-end Android phones, for the small % that are likely to make a decision that way, instead of iOS vs Android OS/ecosystem.  A Google Pixel is more likely to take sales from Samsung than Apple.  Android has the dominant market share by far - that isn't going to change - the question is about iPhone sales.  Samsung had their best phone last year in Galaxy 7, yet Apple increased its sales from previous year.  
    - Apple continues to increase its iPhone installed base.  Some estimates are to the tune of ~100M new users a year for past few years.  As installed base grows, so does the potential for upgrades (which is counter-acted by fact the average time between upgrades lengthens).
    - There are still new markets for Apple, such as India.  As global average incomes rise, there is a small but still increasing number that enter the financial range to purchase premium phone if they want to (even if they had a very cheap Android phone before).

    I do agree that "super cycle" might be misplaced here, as iPhones simply are very durable and are lasting longer.  No one is predicting iPhone will grow (averaged over a few years) at a high % - but there is still growth to be had.  iPhone itself should get to 1B users in next few years - that is not counting iPad.
    But... Wall St will be expecting Apple to increase sales year on year. This is normal for them. Not meeting their expectations will result in a stock price will drop. Wall St loves Apple stock to drop.

    I don't agree with your surmise that it is a battle between Apple and high end Androids.
    Even budget Androids are good enough for most people these days. How long can Apple justify the high prices? What if enough people decide that $1000 is a big step too far and opt for a far cheaper Android?
    As for India... I've been there a number of times and worked with many Indians. For many a phone is a tool and not a status symbol. Cheapo phones abound and do the job. My perception is that is it not the status symbol that many people in other countries consider it to be.
    This may change over time with the rise in the niumber of middle class Indians.

    Personally, I think that the phone market is reaching maturity like the PC market. Growth will be small if any at all.
    In order to keep growing market share Apple, Samsung and the rest will face an uphill battle. Just being the latest thing on the block or with added bling won't hack it.

    I'm not saying that this will happen but I get the feeling that it might.
    Apple doesn't actually compete directly with Android, and Android manufacturers do t directly compete with Apple, except for Samsung's S series.

    android manufacturers compete with each other, and the competition is ruthless. Why do you think they all have "skins" overlaying the stock Android GUI? Read the new review of the S8 over at arstechnica.
    Soli
  • Reply 48 of 56
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 7,538member
    Even budget Androids are good enough for most people these days.
    Define "good enough".
    Huawei P8 Lite 2017.

    www.techradar.com/reviews/huawei-p8-lite-2017
    edited April 2017
  • Reply 49 of 56
    hmurchisonhmurchison Posts: 12,408member
    I don't know about Supercycle and all that but I will say that this fall my wife and I will be upgrading to the iPhone 8.   My wife just recently opined about how cool wireless charging is in the Samsung.  I told her that's an expected feature in one of the upcoming iPhones so she'd be sold on that alone. 

    We are also looking at the Apple Watch and by the third major revision I think it's time to hop in.   I've seen the competition and really no one is doing anything that makes me want to leave the Apple ecosystem in wearables. 

    My Macbook Air (love this thing)  is going on 5 years old.  It's time to upgrade to a MBP Pro I can't decide whether to go 13" or 15" since it'll be a development tool.  Will probably want the the 15" but we'll see what the budget says. 

    Also me and my buddy both want the next Mac mini.   I'm ready to setup a media server with Apple and Plex and I may use it for Indigo Domotics (Home Automation) as well.  I think 2016 was very blah for Apple but that they've got some good momentum coming in HW.   Excited to see where iOS and Mac OS is going in a couple months. 


  • Reply 50 of 56
    SoliSoli Posts: 10,035member
    My Macbook Air (love this thing)  is going on 5 years old.  It's time to upgrade to a MBP Pro I can't decide whether to go 13" or 15" since it'll be a development tool.  Will probably want the the 15" but we'll see what the budget says. 
    I'd say that depends on how much development you'll be doing, the apps you'll be using, how portable you need it, and if you'll be using an external display.

     I think 2016 was very blah for Apple but that they've got some good momentum coming in HW.

    2016 was an amazing year for Apple HW. We got incredible MBPs, the iPhone 7 series, a 10" iPad Pro, and AirPods; and not just the products themselves, but individual components were heavily updated or had completely new HW designed for them. The iPhone 7 Plus camera's portrait mode is amazing, the displays on all these devices are just getting better and better, and the MBP and AirPods have specially designed chips. With the MBP they're running an entirely separate version of OS X forked from watchOS so the T-series chip can rung the Touch Bar, Touch ID, and Apple Pay; and the AirPods has the simplest BT connectivity and sensing as to whether they're being worn just makes the whole the experience seamless.

  • Reply 51 of 56
    aricbaricb Posts: 27member
    Personally, my history has been to upgrade every 3 years for 2 reasons. 1. The 2 years contract with the phone company would hold me half way thru the newest model year basically making the decision for me to just wait an extra 6 months for the next model. Then the next model would be sold out like crazy for a few months, and the delayed 2 year cycle would continue. 2. The difference in technology between phones 2 years apart doesn't feel big enough to me to warrant the expense. Yes the new phone is nice, but the older phone is still very usable at that point.
  • Reply 52 of 56
    hmurchisonhmurchison Posts: 12,408member
    Soli said:
    My Macbook Air (love this thing)  is going on 5 years old.  It's time to upgrade to a MBP Pro I can't decide whether to go 13" or 15" since it'll be a development tool.  Will probably want the the 15" but we'll see what the budget says. 
    I'd say that depends on how much development you'll be doing, the apps you'll be using, how portable you need it, and if you'll be using an external display.

     I think 2016 was very blah for Apple but that they've got some good momentum coming in HW.

    2016 was an amazing year for Apple HW. We got incredible MBPs, the iPhone 7 series, a 10" iPad Pro, and AirPods; and not just the products themselves, but individual components were heavily updated or had completely new HW designed for them. The iPhone 7 Plus camera's portrait mode is amazing, the displays on all these devices are just getting better and better, and the MBP and AirPods have specially designed chips. With the MBP they're running an entirely separate version of OS X forked from watchOS so the T-series chip can rung the Touch Bar, Touch ID, and Apple Pay; and the AirPods has the simplest BT connectivity and sensing as to whether they're being worn just makes the whole the experience seamless.


    Yup...my heart wants the 15" but my head knows that I'm better off with a 13" and some nice accessories.   If my 27" iMac last a couple more years I might just spring for the revamped Mac Pro

    Yeah 2016 wasn't that bad.  As much as people rant about the Touchbar I don't find it to be a bad idea at all and I love the smaller chassis.  It's a really handsome laptop.  iPhone 7 is good but I've got a 6s + so i'm keenly awaiting whatever they call the next big rev.   

    Anxiously awaiting the next revision of the watch and I'm pretty sure that we'll have a new device or two hit...preferably one with HomeKit support that plays music :smile: 

    My chief complaints right now are not large: 

    1.  Redo the Apple TV.   Make the chassis a bit wider,  make bluetooth more functional and scrap the remote that breaks on hard surfaces. 
    2. Mac mini - rev it please and it'd be nice to return to the days where basic upgrades could be done. 
    3. Fix the stores - the UI of the iBook store is different from the Mac App Store which is different than the App Store in subtle but confusing way. 
    4. iTunes -  Yank the sync stuff...scrap it all and build something that people are going to love managing and discovering music with. 
    5. iPads - realized the ship has sailed.  Push the prices down and build a MacOS Web platform unencumbered with legacy API that leverages burgeoning services 
  • Reply 53 of 56
    SoliSoli Posts: 10,035member
    Soli said:
    My Macbook Air (love this thing)  is going on 5 years old.  It's time to upgrade to a MBP Pro I can't decide whether to go 13" or 15" since it'll be a development tool.  Will probably want the the 15" but we'll see what the budget says. 
    I'd say that depends on how much development you'll be doing, the apps you'll be using, how portable you need it, and if you'll be using an external display.

     I think 2016 was very blah for Apple but that they've got some good momentum coming in HW.

    2016 was an amazing year for Apple HW. We got incredible MBPs, the iPhone 7 series, a 10" iPad Pro, and AirPods; and not just the products themselves, but individual components were heavily updated or had completely new HW designed for them. The iPhone 7 Plus camera's portrait mode is amazing, the displays on all these devices are just getting better and better, and the MBP and AirPods have specially designed chips. With the MBP they're running an entirely separate version of OS X forked from watchOS so the T-series chip can rung the Touch Bar, Touch ID, and Apple Pay; and the AirPods has the simplest BT connectivity and sensing as to whether they're being worn just makes the whole the experience seamless.

    Anxiously awaiting the next revision of the watch…
    Oh yeah, I forgot that the Watch made some massive gains, including watchOS on the original Apple Watch. One, I wonder what they did to create so much performance between 1.x and 2.x/3.x. Two, I'm finding the original still so useful that I'm not sure I'll upgrade on the next release unless there's a major breakthrough… and I don't mean cellular, as that's not something I want if it's going to cause the device to get thicker, heavier, more costly, and require a data plan.
  • Reply 54 of 56
    hmurchisonhmurchison Posts: 12,408member
    Soli said:
    Soli said:
    My Macbook Air (love this thing)  is going on 5 years old.  It's time to upgrade to a MBP Pro I can't decide whether to go 13" or 15" since it'll be a development tool.  Will probably want the the 15" but we'll see what the budget says. 
    I'd say that depends on how much development you'll be doing, the apps you'll be using, how portable you need it, and if you'll be using an external display.

     I think 2016 was very blah for Apple but that they've got some good momentum coming in HW.


    Anxiously awaiting the next revision of the watch…
    Oh yeah, I forgot that the Watch made some massive gains, including watchOS on the original Apple Watch. One, I wonder what they did to create so much performance between 1.x and 2.x/3.x. Two, I'm finding the original still so useful that I'm not sure I'll upgrade on the next release unless there's a major breakthrough… and I don't mean cellular, as that's not something I want if it's going to cause the device to get thicker, heavier, more costly, and require a data plan.
    They'll have me at "moar battery life" . I think the performance of the Apple Watch today would be acceptable. 
  • Reply 55 of 56
    unemployedfattyunemployedfatty Posts: 1unconfirmed, member
    I can see this happening. i personally have the Iphone 6. I did not buy the Iphone 7 because it didn't really seem like much of an upgrade for me and I don't like the fact that they removed the headphone jack, but if the Iphone 8 comes out this year or early next year, I would be very likely to buy it or at least consider buying it.
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