'iPhone 8' will still ship in Sept., JP Morgan says, but Apple's supply will be tightly co...
Straying from the pack a bit, one analyst believes that the "iPhone 8" will ship before the end of September, but in profoundly limited quantities, but the largest measure of Apple's profits from the device will accrue throughout the calendar year.
In an investor's note seen by AppleInsider, Rod Hall from J.P. Morgan continues to support the concept of a "super cycle" after the "iPhone 7s" family and "iPhone 8" launch. However, because of possible OLED screen issues related to Touch ID, launch quantities will likely be constrained.
Original J.P. Morgan estimates pinned 9 million "iPhone 8" units available for launch and for sale before the end of September. Hall believes that the actual number is now closer to 2 million because of unspecified production problems, and has shifted quarterly unit forecasts accordingly.
In the short term, the relative lack of unavailability at launch and in the early days of the fiscal quarter ending in September will have a temporary effect on average selling price. Hall believes that the average selling price will not hit the peak of $681 as they predicted, but will be around $629.
The holiday quarter, Apple's first quarter in the 2018 fiscal year, is another matter. Hall believes that the average selling price through fiscal year 2018 will dramatically climb to $759 from a previous guess of $717.
Other than just a holiday quarter shift, other changes in estimate reasoning surrounding increased iPhone demand have grown fiscal year 2018's predictions by the firm upwards by $17 billion over previous estimates, at the cost of a decrease of $7 billion in the fourth quarter of 2017.
It is not clear if Hall's data about lower initial production volumes of the "iPhone 8" is independently sourced, or gleaned from other published reports. Also not clear is how the estimated two million compares to the low quantities shipped of the iPhone 7 Plus at launch.
In an investor's note seen by AppleInsider, Rod Hall from J.P. Morgan continues to support the concept of a "super cycle" after the "iPhone 7s" family and "iPhone 8" launch. However, because of possible OLED screen issues related to Touch ID, launch quantities will likely be constrained.
Original J.P. Morgan estimates pinned 9 million "iPhone 8" units available for launch and for sale before the end of September. Hall believes that the actual number is now closer to 2 million because of unspecified production problems, and has shifted quarterly unit forecasts accordingly.
In the short term, the relative lack of unavailability at launch and in the early days of the fiscal quarter ending in September will have a temporary effect on average selling price. Hall believes that the average selling price will not hit the peak of $681 as they predicted, but will be around $629.
The holiday quarter, Apple's first quarter in the 2018 fiscal year, is another matter. Hall believes that the average selling price through fiscal year 2018 will dramatically climb to $759 from a previous guess of $717.
Other than just a holiday quarter shift, other changes in estimate reasoning surrounding increased iPhone demand have grown fiscal year 2018's predictions by the firm upwards by $17 billion over previous estimates, at the cost of a decrease of $7 billion in the fourth quarter of 2017.
It is not clear if Hall's data about lower initial production volumes of the "iPhone 8" is independently sourced, or gleaned from other published reports. Also not clear is how the estimated two million compares to the low quantities shipped of the iPhone 7 Plus at launch.
Comments
Of course, they’ll never admit they were wrong. It will be Apple not being able to resolve issues, not that it was never going to happen in the first place.
Great idea. Problem is SUPPLY is actually short. There's not infinite iPhones available at launch. Also this would piss off the customer if they found out half the supply went to an Apple eBay company.
Apple isn't going to start production until yields are reliable enough to sustain the full assembly line. A yield-limited launch would hurt more than it helps.
As for the resistance to iPhone Pro, lets wait and see exactly what they have to deliver here. There are a couple of ways in which a "Pro" iPhone could be worth every penny and frankly even more ways that it will be worthless to many. If Apple has plans (a big if) for a phone beyond the 7S and 7S+ they must have a rational for the product. I'm betting on features that we might not have imagined yet.
Idk, just my guess..
Why the negativity? Someone beat me to it.
It's all well and good if the rumours were just rumours, but people are treating any news of delays to an unannounced product as deadly serious, and using that to push the usual "Apple is DOO0M3D!!1!" narrative. And it's a narrative they can't fail at, because if there never was an iPhone "Pro" or "X" or whatever coming, they'll just say that something went wrong, and Apple couldn't deliver it, and then we're back at "Apple is DOO0M3D!!1!".
And another strand is that I really just want Apple to do something no-one is expecting. Life is so boring when you know how it's going to turn out.
Don't get me wrong, speculation is fun, but you need to remember it is just speculation. Nothing is certain until there's an official announcement. A lot of this speculation is treated as established fact, and that's my problem.
I'm puzzled as to why Wall Street sees any delay as a major disaster. I honestly have never heard Apple give a specific launch date for the iPhone so I don't know how analysts can say there's a delay. A delay based on what date? An iPhone launch is almost an unprecedented event by most unit sales standards, so why is Wall Street always displeased with Apple. A high-end smartphone is a rather complicated device.