Lumentum pinned as range-finding and face scanning laser supplier for 'iPhone 8' & 2018 mo...

Posted:
in Future Apple Hardware
A new market analyst report is taking laser supplier Lumentum's prediction for sales and deliveries, and extrapolating that to mean that not only is the "iPhone 8" not going to see a substantial delay, but advanced 3D sensing technologies are going to be incorporated in more iPhones in 2018 than previously thought.




Laser supplier Lumentum's fiscal report notes that in the June quarter, it recorded $5 million in revenue -- but recieved orders for $200 million in bookings in the next quarter to be shipped in calendar year 2017. Additionally, in the quarter, the company noted that it increased production capacity by about 30 percent from what was anticipated a year ago.

Given the statement by Lumentum that one customer is responsible for the most of the demand, the analysts at Loup Ventures declared in a report on Wednesday that the end user is Apple, to be incorporated into the "iPhone 8" -- and possibly other models in 2018.

Also, given supply costs of between $6 and $7 per phone, the fiscal gain by Lumentum, the timing of the sale, and existing iPhone product mix, Loup Ventures predicts that 55 million iPhones will sport the technology before the end of calendar year 2017. Only the "iPhone 8" is expected to contain the new range-finding technology, with the "iPhone 7s" retaining older optics and sensors.

Based on the same assumptions, Loup Ventures predicts that Apple will ship 239 million iPhones in calendar year 2018, encompassing new models at the end of next year. Of that 239 million, 160 million would incorporate the 3D sensing technology.

The vertical cavity surface emitting laser (VCSEL) is a diode with the laser emitting perpendicular from the top surface of the assembly, rather than a directional lens. VCSEL applications at low power include optical mice and laser printers. At slightly higher power, such as those that Loup Ventures expects Lumentum is selling, they can be used as precise rangefinders, and texture mappers -- and still be invisible to the naked eye.

Lumentum was founded in 2015. The company claims that its products are incorporated into "virtually every type of telecom, enterprise, and data center network." Lumentum's Chief Quality Officer Misha Rozenberg held a senior engineering management position at Apple between 1989 and 1994.

In February, reports started circulating that a 3D laser scanning module might appear on the "iPhone 8." At the time, it was predicted to be for facial scanning, but with a pair of lasers front and back, as expected in Wednesday's report, could be used for augmented reality in Apple's already-heralded ARKit as well.

The "iPhone 8" that the laser is reportedly destined for is predicted to have edge-to-edge OLED display with 5.15 inches of user space and a higher resolution than the iPhone 7 Plus at 2,436 by 1,125 pixels. The facial recognition technology that the VCSEL laser facilitates rumored to be in the device may replace Touch ID -- but the rumor mill has conflicting information on that.

Predictions have ranged between Apple could charge a starting price of around $1000 and as much as $1200 for the starting cost of the iPhone 8.

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 13
    robjnrobjn Posts: 205member
    What if there are two lasers on each phone?

    One front facing for PearlID.

    One rear facing for enhanced camera/AR capability.

    The analysts here are assuming there is one laser on the device.
    badmonk
  • Reply 2 of 13
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 31,507member
    It’s interesting that such a young company would have all of,those products out and a customer base. I’m surprised that apple didn’t buy them. Maybe there are other companies that are close on their heels and so Apple didn’t think it was worthwhile. I wonder what Apple could have gotten them for in early or mid 2016.
    repressthis
  • Reply 3 of 13
    Mike WuertheleMike Wuerthele Posts: 4,413administrator
    robjn said:
    What if there are two lasers on each phone?

    One front facing for PearlID.

    One rear facing for enhanced camera/AR capability.

    The analysts here are assuming there is one laser on the device.
    There is a lot of fuzzy math and assumptions associated with the estimates. The supply chain as a wider whole expects $6-7 per laser. Loup Ventures assumes $6 to $7 per iPhone in total for two lasers. We'll see.
    badmonk
  • Reply 4 of 13
    wigbywigby Posts: 688member
    melgross said:
    It’s interesting that such a young company would have all of,those products out and a customer base. I’m surprised that apple didn’t buy them. Maybe there are other companies that are close on their heels and so Apple didn’t think it was worthwhile. I wonder what Apple could have gotten them for in early or mid 2016.
    Apple could also have many other laser sensor suppliers waiting in the wings. It's usually best to pit suppliers against each other to get best pricing and most quantities as opposed to putting all your eggs in one supplier basket by buying them.
    edited August 2017
  • Reply 5 of 13
    physguyphysguy Posts: 915member
    melgross said:
    It’s interesting that such a young company would have all of,those products out and a customer base. I’m surprised that apple didn’t buy them. Maybe there are other companies that are close on their heels and so Apple didn’t think it was worthwhile. I wonder what Apple could have gotten them for in early or mid 2016.
    Lumentum is not a young company.  It is a spinout of JDSU and was born mature :)
    repressthisbadmonk
  • Reply 6 of 13
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 31,507member
    robjn said:
    What if there are two lasers on each phone?

    One front facing for PearlID.

    One rear facing for enhanced camera/AR capability.

    The analysts here are assuming there is one laser on the device.
    There is a lot of fuzzy math and assumptions associated with the estimates. The supply chain as a wider whole expects $6-7 per laser. Loup Ventures assumes $6 to $7 per iPhone in total for two lasers. We'll see.
    You know how the price goes when ordering in 100 million quantities. These are very simple devices. They cost very little to produce. It’s like any other electronic part. One might cost $1 (just using that number as an example), 10 might cost $0.92 ea. 100 might cost $0.80. 1,000 possibly $0.68. When we get to 100 million, the price might be down to $0.25. It can’t get below cost, of course.

    when I was buying parts for my own company, way back when, we never got further then the tens of thousands per part. But that was still a big discount. It’s very difficult for these companies to give an accurate number, because they don’t know all the costs. Particularly if the OEM is a private company. So it’s really all guesswork, just like the takedowns iSupply does all the time. Sometimes I just have to laugh at the numbers the come up with, especially after I call some of my friends in the industry abou it.
    SpamSandwichwatto_cobra
  • Reply 7 of 13
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 31,507member

    wigby said:
    melgross said:
    It’s interesting that such a young company would have all of,those products out and a customer base. I’m surprised that apple didn’t buy them. Maybe there are other companies that are close on their heels and so Apple didn’t think it was worthwhile. I wonder what Apple could have gotten them for in early or mid 2016.
    Apple could also have many other laser sensor suppliers waiting in the wings. It's usually best to pit suppliers against each other to get best pricing and most quantities as opposed to putting all your eggs in one supplier basket by buying them.
    It depends. If these diodes are no different than what’s being produced by everyone else, then yes.  It if their technology is more advanced, then no.
    lolliver
  • Reply 8 of 13
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 31,507member

    physguy said:
    melgross said:
    It’s interesting that such a young company would have all of,those products out and a customer base. I’m surprised that apple didn’t buy them. Maybe there are other companies that are close on their heels and so Apple didn’t think it was worthwhile. I wonder what Apple could have gotten them for in early or mid 2016.
    Lumentum is not a young company.  It is a spinout of JDSU and was born mature :)
    See, that’s what happens in those instances where I didn’t look it up before I posted, as I usually do.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 9 of 13
    Finally, an iPhone with lasers. Sweet  B)
    edited August 2017 watto_cobra
  • Reply 10 of 13
    SpamSandwichSpamSandwich Posts: 30,992member
    Finally, an iPhone with lasers. Sweet  B)
    iPhones with lasers battling sharks with frickin' lasers on their heads.
    watto_cobrarepressthis
  • Reply 11 of 13
    A new market analyst report is taking laser supplier Lumentum's prediction for sales and deliveries, and extrapolating that to mean that not only is the "iPhone 8" not going to see a substantial delay, but advanced 3D sensing technologies are going to be incorporated in more iPhones in 2018 than previously thought.




    Laser supplier Lumentum's fiscal report notes that in the June quarter, it recorded $5 million in revenue -- but recieved orders for $200 million in bookings in the next quarter to be shipped in calendar year 2017. Additionally, in the quarter, the company noted that it increased production capacity by about 30 percent from what was anticipated a year ago.

    Given the statement by Lumentum that one customer is responsible for the most of the demand, the analysts at Loup Ventures declared in a report on Wednesday that the end user is Apple, to be incorporated into the "iPhone 8" -- and possibly other models in 2018.

    Also, given supply costs of between $6 and $7 per phone, the fiscal gain by Lumentum, the timing of the sale, and existing iPhone product mix, Loup Ventures predicts that 55 million iPhones will sport the technology before the end of calendar year 2017. Only the "iPhone 8" is expected to contain the new range-finding technology, with the "iPhone 7s" retaining older optics and sensors.

    Based on the same assumptions, Loup Ventures predicts that Apple will ship 239 million iPhones in calendar year 2018, encompassing new models at the end of next year. Of that 239 million, 160 million would incorporate the 3D sensing technology.

    The vertical cavity surface emitting laser (VCSEL) is a diode with the laser emitting perpendicular from the top surface of the assembly, rather than a directional lens. VCSEL applications at low power include optical mice and laser printers. At slightly higher power, such as those that Loup Ventures expects Lumentum is selling, they can be used as precise rangefinders, and texture mappers -- and still be invisible to the naked eye.

    Lumentum was founded in 2015. The company claims that its products are incorporated into "virtually every type of telecom, enterprise, and data center network." Lumentum's Chief Quality Officer Misha Rozenberg held a senior engineering management position at Apple between 1989 and 1994.

    In February, reports started circulating that a 3D laser scanning module might appear on the "iPhone 8." At the time, it was predicted to be for facial scanning, but with a pair of lasers front and back, as expected in Wednesday's report, could be used for augmented reality in Apple's already-heralded ARKit as well.

    The "iPhone 8" that the laser is reportedly destined for is predicted to have edge-to-edge OLED display with 5.15 inches of user space and a higher resolution than the iPhone 7 Plus at 2,436 by 1,125 pixels. The facial recognition technology that the VCSEL laser facilitates rumored to be in the device may replace Touch ID -- but the rumor mill has conflicting information on that.

    Predictions have ranged between Apple could charge a starting price of around $1000 and as much as $1200 for the starting cost of the iPhone 8.
    Inferior technology. Digital micro mirrors MEMS LBS provides higher resolution than this VSCEL crap. 

    Apple should re-examine their supply chain for venders who can deliver.and with superior tech.

    Might as well be a windows phone at this point. FAIL!!!
  • Reply 12 of 13
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 31,507member
    codestaxx said:
    A new market analyst report is taking laser supplier Lumentum's prediction for sales and deliveries, and extrapolating that to mean that not only is the "iPhone 8" not going to see a substantial delay, but advanced 3D sensing technologies are going to be incorporated in more iPhones in 2018 than previously thought.




    Laser supplier Lumentum's fiscal report notes that in the June quarter, it recorded $5 million in revenue -- but recieved orders for $200 million in bookings in the next quarter to be shipped in calendar year 2017. Additionally, in the quarter, the company noted that it increased production capacity by about 30 percent from what was anticipated a year ago.

    Given the statement by Lumentum that one customer is responsible for the most of the demand, the analysts at Loup Ventures declared in a report on Wednesday that the end user is Apple, to be incorporated into the "iPhone 8" -- and possibly other models in 2018.

    Also, given supply costs of between $6 and $7 per phone, the fiscal gain by Lumentum, the timing of the sale, and existing iPhone product mix, Loup Ventures predicts that 55 million iPhones will sport the technology before the end of calendar year 2017. Only the "iPhone 8" is expected to contain the new range-finding technology, with the "iPhone 7s" retaining older optics and sensors.

    Based on the same assumptions, Loup Ventures predicts that Apple will ship 239 million iPhones in calendar year 2018, encompassing new models at the end of next year. Of that 239 million, 160 million would incorporate the 3D sensing technology.

    The vertical cavity surface emitting laser (VCSEL) is a diode with the laser emitting perpendicular from the top surface of the assembly, rather than a directional lens. VCSEL applications at low power include optical mice and laser printers. At slightly higher power, such as those that Loup Ventures expects Lumentum is selling, they can be used as precise rangefinders, and texture mappers -- and still be invisible to the naked eye.

    Lumentum was founded in 2015. The company claims that its products are incorporated into "virtually every type of telecom, enterprise, and data center network." Lumentum's Chief Quality Officer Misha Rozenberg held a senior engineering management position at Apple between 1989 and 1994.

    In February, reports started circulating that a 3D laser scanning module might appear on the "iPhone 8." At the time, it was predicted to be for facial scanning, but with a pair of lasers front and back, as expected in Wednesday's report, could be used for augmented reality in Apple's already-heralded ARKit as well.

    The "iPhone 8" that the laser is reportedly destined for is predicted to have edge-to-edge OLED display with 5.15 inches of user space and a higher resolution than the iPhone 7 Plus at 2,436 by 1,125 pixels. The facial recognition technology that the VCSEL laser facilitates rumored to be in the device may replace Touch ID -- but the rumor mill has conflicting information on that.

    Predictions have ranged between Apple could charge a starting price of around $1000 and as much as $1200 for the starting cost of the iPhone 8.
    Inferior technology. Digital micro mirrors MEMS LBS provides higher resolution than this VSCEL crap. 

    Apple should re-examine their supply chain for venders who can deliver.and with superior tech.

    Might as well be a windows phone at this point. FAIL!!!
    That technology isn’t suited to phone use.
    welshdog
  • Reply 13 of 13
    physguy said:
    melgross said:
    It’s interesting that such a young company would have all of,those products out and a customer base. I’m surprised that apple didn’t buy them. Maybe there are other companies that are close on their heels and so Apple didn’t think it was worthwhile. I wonder what Apple could have gotten them for in early or mid 2016.
    Lumentum is not a young company.  It is a spinout of JDSU and was born mature :)
    Here is the background: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JDSU
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