iPhone X TrueDepth supply issues likely to clear up in early 2018, 'super cycle' still com...

AppleInsiderAppleInsider
Posted:
in iPhone edited October 2017
KGI Securities Ming-Chi Kuo sees the TrueDepth camera and Face ID as the real driving force behind a "super cycle" for the iPhone, with it ultimately growing iPhone sales for the entirety of fiscal year 2018.




In a note seen by AppleInsider KGI Securities analyst Kuo predicts that the current TrueDepth camera shortage will be short-lived, and will clear up during the fiscal year. Because of a potential for a low-stock situation for the iPhone X out of the gate, Kuo still forecasts a super cycle because of the technologies introduced in the OLED phone, albeit a slightly later one.

Kuo also expects that the fourth-quarter sales of the iPhone 8 will be better than expected, but will in all likelihood see a cannibalization by the iPhone X shipments in November -- which is still good news for Apple.

As production issues for the TrueDepth camera sensors used for Face ID clear up, Kuo expects that pent-up demand for the iPhone X will be sated, with shipments "picking up strongly" in the first half of the 2018 calendar year.

Coined by industry analysts in the beginning of 2017, an iPhone "supercycle" is best described as a sudden upwelling of demand because of a combination of eradication of carrier subsidies and other market factors. In 2016, Apple faced three straight quarters of revenue declines as iPhone faced stiff competition and lower than anticipated sales in China.

Around 48.4 million people were using iPhone 6 series devices in the U.S. at the end of 2016. Another 21.9 million owned an iPhone 5s or older during the same period, according to comScore MobiLens data. If historical upgrade trends continue, a healthy portion of the collective 70 million iPhone users just in the United States will buy Apple's latest and greatest device, representing a huge windfall for the company.

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 9
    mubailimubaili Posts: 453member
    Even Apple doesn’t know whether people will like the Face ID or not, let alone Mingchi Kuo. There are no more super cycle liked the iPhone 6/6 plus.
  • Reply 2 of 9
    pujones1pujones1 Posts: 222member
    We will see what happens when preorders start. Unfortunately it will sell out just because of lack of inventory for whatever territories it's released in. 
  • Reply 3 of 9
    RacerhomieXRacerhomieX Posts: 95unconfirmed, member
    mubaili said:
    Even Apple doesn’t know whether people will like the Face ID or not, let alone Mingchi Kuo. There are no more super cycle liked the iPhone 6/6 plus.
    My Normie aunt ,is going to wait all night just to get one before December. I think iPhone X will be fine.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 4 of 9
    78Bandit78Bandit Posts: 238member
    "Around 48.4 million people were using iPhone 6 series devices in the U.S. at the end of 2016. Another 21.9 million owned an iPhone 5s or older during the same period, according to comScore MobiLens data. If historical upgrade trends continue, a healthy portion of the collective 70 million iPhone users just in the United States will buy Apple's latest and greatest device, representing a huge windfall for the company."

    The biggest historical trend that is being broken is the previous $649 price for both the 5s and the 6 (and the 6s and the 7).  I think a healthy portion of people still using three year old models are going to be hesitant to pony up a cool grand for a new phone.  They may have been waiting for a refreshed design, but many of them won't have been following iPhone rumors and the $1,000 entry price of the X is going to cause sticker shock.  If anything I would expect an unusually high percentage of $549 iPhone 7 models to be sold as that appears to be the sweet spot in price/features given the $50 base price bump in the 8 to $699.
  • Reply 5 of 9
    tmaytmay Posts: 6,328member
    78Bandit said:
    "Around 48.4 million people were using iPhone 6 series devices in the U.S. at the end of 2016. Another 21.9 million owned an iPhone 5s or older during the same period, according to comScore MobiLens data. If historical upgrade trends continue, a healthy portion of the collective 70 million iPhone users just in the United States will buy Apple's latest and greatest device, representing a huge windfall for the company."

    The biggest historical trend that is being broken is the previous $649 price for both the 5s and the 6 (and the 6s and the 7).  I think a healthy portion of people still using three year old models are going to be hesitant to pony up a cool grand for a new phone.  They may have been waiting for a refreshed design, but many of them won't have been following iPhone rumors and the $1,000 entry price of the X is going to cause sticker shock.  If anything I would expect an unusually high percentage of $549 iPhone 7 models to be sold as that appears to be the sweet spot in price/features given the $50 base price bump in the 8 to $699.


    Never let data get in the way of a a personal presumption.
  • Reply 6 of 9
    jfc1138jfc1138 Posts: 3,090member
    Using the Apple upgrade program there’s effectively no sticker shock. 
    edited October 2017
  • Reply 7 of 9
    badmonkbadmonk Posts: 1,293member
    mubaili said:
    Even Apple doesn’t know whether people will like the Face ID or not, let alone Mingchi Kuo. There are no more super cycle liked the iPhone 6/6 plus.
    I have to disagree with you.  The natural history of an iPhone is an average life of two to four years per device.  $1000 cost is nothing to many people and is still dwarfed by the cost of a cellular-data plan.  For those of us who love our iPhones, we interact with our devices many hours per day.  FaceID is a revolutionary advance over TouchID, especially if you have an active lifestyle and using your hands.  AR kit, the A-11 bionic, the OLED screen and the camera are also icing on the cake.

    MCK is correct.  This will be a delayed but fully fleshed out super-cycle.

    Apple and Samsung are in a good position for the next two years.

    For these two it almost game-over compared to their competitors.


    edited October 2017
  • Reply 8 of 9
    fallenjtfallenjt Posts: 4,054member
    sog35 said:
    mubaili said:
    Even Apple doesn’t know whether people will like the Face ID or not, let alone Mingchi Kuo. There are no more super cycle liked the iPhone 6/6 plus.
    who cares if their is a supercycle or not.

    I just want my X phone ASAP.


    Same here. Beside the price, the damn phone is perfect until the next 6.4” comes out...lol. I would stay with this phone. It’s better in my hand compared to 7+ without losing screen estate.
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