Keeping the SE, 6s and 7 in the line up doesn't help sales of the 8 which doesn't *look* any different. It offers a lot, but on the inside. Regular non-tech savvy customers probably have a hard time understanding why they could buy an 8, instead of a 7 or a much cheaper 6s. Which are doing their job pretty well (excluding AR and Wireless charging). Why they are keeping (with the X) 5 models available, it is a bit of a mystery to me.
At the start of this year, Q117 Counterpoint statistics showed that Apple's habitual territory, the 'premium smartphone' segment, had contracted while the so called 'affordable premium' segment saw explosive growth (49%).
It is possible that this wasn't a simple blip and has continued throughout the year. This, (another year on year contraction) could spell trouble for Apple as it has most of its major revenues directly tied to the premium mobile handset market and even if Apple's numbers in the premium segment weren't overly affected in Q1, they have been flat for a while. That situation alone will have been enough to set alarm bells ringing but there is more. Competitors have not only been matching Apple punch for punch for a while now but moving ahead of them. A situation that had no doubt contributed to flat sales. They are not only taking potential sales away from Apple but taking profits too. Apple's share of overall handset profits has been eroding steadily throughout this year. That's something else to be concerned about.
Not only that, but the explosive growth in the affordable premium market is also making money for many of the brands making them. And if that wasn't enough, Apple has slipped to third place in world vendor ratings on unit sales. Something that hadn't happened in many years.
Why is all this happening? First, saturation in the developed world. Most people who have an interest in a smartphone already have one. Second, features. The most sought after features are not reserved for the premium segment phones anymore. Nor is design or build quality. It is becoming increasingly difficult to 'stand out' and if you manage to do it, you are almost certainly not going to be alone. To compound Apple's problems, its yearly release cycle does it no favours while every three months the industry takes another step forward. Competitors have launched entire families of phones during Apple's yearly cycle - and made money off of them.
Lastly, when you look at Apple's numbers worldwide something becomes painfully clear. There is intense pressure on them in the EU. They have already taken a battering in Central and Eastern Europe. Conditions in one of their strongest markets (UK) have been bad for a year and are looking even worse. There is also intense pressure in China and some recent studies have shown that an important Chinese demographic is not showing much interest in Apple. The shining light is the US where Apple is historically strong. That might be about to change though as rumours are pointing to a major competitor entering the US market in 2018, and, for the first time, via a major deal with a national carrier.
I think I've outlined enough issues that, at the very least, are food for thought.
So what can Apple do?
Exactly what it has done. At least as a first step. If handset growth is not in the market you are in, you need to go there. It doesn't mean you have to abandon your current environment (the latest iPhones prove this). If you plan to make 'services' a major revenue arm you need share and if your sales are flat you need to solve that problem first and foremost.
Apple's strategy right now seems to be to keep older phones 'live' for longer and place them in the lower (but not lowest) segments.
As a first step I think it makes sense as they have increased the pool of potential buyers and can finally take a stab at emerging markets. The problem is that you are selling 'old' phones but the strategy can be tweaked without issues by 'repackaging' them. Using the same base design with upgraded hardware. This what competitors are doing so successfully.
That's where marketing comes in and Apple is pretty good here.
I questioned the lack of external changes on Apple's phones over the last few generations. I think it was a big mistake and might impact progress for next year. Bezels are 'out' (with or without reason) and will be seen as 'old hat' in short order. Apple will have to trudge through 2018 pushing very good phones on the inside dressed up in something that simply isn't going to be 'attractive' to some users. It's something they could have avoided but chose not to.
Yes, more options can create more doubts but at the end of the day, it is price that sways the decision. Financing is not a solution for everybody. Apple's current product offering is a first simple step and well worth trying. If it doesn't give great results, there are other options that involve more effort but going into 2018 with only the 8 and X might have led to difficult times.
It's possible we've reached this point where there are too many iPhone models on sale, and it creates confusion. Many Apple buyers are not technical, and hard pressed to know the significance of the differences between the phones, and Apple is not doing a good job of pointing those out, not in terms of specs, but in terms of practical benefits of those differences. So, Apple might just do better to constrain the models they have on sale. I understand they went both cheaper (SE) and more expensive (8 and X), and that's a good thing, but they should have dropped the 7 and lower the price of the 8's, me thinks.
It's possible we've reached this point where there are too many iPhone models on sale, and it creates confusion. Many Apple buyers are not technical, and hard pressed to know the significance of the differences between the phones, and Apple is not doing a good job of pointing those out, not in terms of specs, but in terms of practical benefits of those differences. So, Apple might just do better to constrain the models they have on sale. I understand they went both cheaper (SE) and more expensive (8 and X), and that's a good thing, but they should have dropped the 7 and lower the price of the 8's, me thinks.
That's an option for sure but the 7 is a mature product on a manufacturing level and therefore completely stable along with having already paid off part of its development costs. Bringing down the price of the 8 might increase demand for it but right now we don't know how much capacity they had in the first place (rumours say they have halved component orders for the next couple of months, but halved from what?) and any lowering of price might have a negative impact on recouping development costs.
Spreading the offer out over different models makes more sense now and can be tweaked later if need be. Taking the easiest and cheapest route first and seeing how it plays out makes sense to me.
'buyer confusion' isn't really an issue as there aren't that many elements to consider and anyone that is completely lost can simply ask someone to recommend the best option based on needs and budget.
The phones are not 2017 "flagship" caliber. Yet they went up $50 on their base model. They have horrifically large bezels that I was complaining about last year. It's really uncomfortable on the Plus models. They've been rumored to go to OLED for years now, and yet couldn't get their supply chain ready in time, so we're back to LCD. There's just too many OLED phones on the market and most of them are incredible displays with super thin bezels. Their stupid obnoxious tween marketing for things like animojis and studio mode are not going to get people rushing in line for these things.
Apple still has the best OS on the market, the best CPU under the hood, and a lot of nifty hardware advantages like Taptic, 3D Touch. They've made some ridiculous hardware decisions over the past two years that have been costly to their customers, and maybe this is the year it will bite them in the ass.
Currently, the only OLED-based smartphones worth their salt are the Samsung S8 / Note 8. Go look at reviews of other smartphones with OLED screens, like the Google Pixel 2 & LG V30, and you'll notice the screens themselves are getting poor reviews due to quality issues.
Just tried getting a couple of iPhone 8 Plus models through our Corporate Bell plan today. Was told by our rep that they are supply constrained because they're having trouble keeping them in stock. They're saying it'll take about 2 weeks to get them in. This was for 256GB iPhone 8 Plus (any color).
A two-week wait is hardly what I call supply constraint.
The phones are not 2017 "flagship" caliber. Yet they went up $50 on their base model. They have horrifically large bezels that I was complaining about last year. It's really uncomfortable on the Plus models. They've been rumored to go to OLED for years now, and yet couldn't get their supply chain ready in time, so we're back to LCD. There's just too many OLED phones on the market and most of them are incredible displays with super thin bezels. Their stupid obnoxious tween marketing for things like animojis and studio mode are not going to get people rushing in line for these things.
Apple still has the best OS on the market, the best CPU under the hood, and a lot of nifty hardware advantages like Taptic, 3D Touch. They've made some ridiculous hardware decisions over the past two years that have been costly to their customers, and maybe this is the year it will bite them in the ass.
Keeping the SE, 6s and 7 in the line up doesn't help sales of the 8 which doesn't *look* any different. It offers a lot, but on the inside. Regular non-tech savvy customers probably have a hard time understanding why they could buy an 8, instead of a 7 or a much cheaper 6s. Which are doing their job pretty well (excluding AR and Wireless charging). Why they are keeping (with the X) 5 models available, it is a bit of a mystery to me.
At the start of this year, Q117 Counterpoint statistics showed that Apple's habitual territory, the 'premium smartphone' segment, had contracted while the so called 'affordable premium' segment saw explosive growth (49%).
It is possible that this wasn't a simple blip and has continued throughout the year. This, (another year on year contraction) could spell trouble for Apple as it has most of its major revenues directly tied to the premium mobile handset market and even if Apple's numbers in the premium segment weren't overly affected in Q1, they have been flat for a while. That situation alone will have been enough to set alarm bells ringing but there is more. Competitors have not only been matching Apple punch for punch for a while now but moving ahead of them. A situation that had no doubt contributed to flat sales. They are not only taking potential sales away from Apple but taking profits too. Apple's share of overall handset profits has been eroding steadily throughout this year. That's something else to be concerned about.
Not only that, but the explosive growth in the affordable premium market is also making money for many of the brands making them. And if that wasn't enough, Apple has slipped to third place in world vendor ratings on unit sales. Something that hadn't happened in many years.
Why is all this happening? First, saturation in the developed world. Most people who have an interest in a smartphone already have one. Second, features. The most sought after features are not reserved for the premium segment phones anymore. Nor is design or build quality. It is becoming increasingly difficult to 'stand out' and if you manage to do it, you are almost certainly not going to be alone. To compound Apple's problems, its yearly release cycle does it no favours while every three months the industry takes another step forward. Competitors have launched entire families of phones during Apple's yearly cycle - and made money off of them.
Lastly, when you look at Apple's numbers worldwide something becomes painfully clear. There is intense pressure on them in the EU. They have already taken a battering in Central and Eastern Europe. Conditions in one of their strongest markets (UK) have been bad for a year and are looking even worse. There is also intense pressure in China and some recent studies have shown that an important Chinese demographic is not showing much interest in Apple. The shining light is the US where Apple is historically strong. That might be about to change though as rumours are pointing to a major competitor entering the US market in 2018, and, for the first time, via a major deal with a national carrier.
I think I've outlined enough issues that, at the very least, are food for thought.
So what can Apple do?
Exactly what it has done. At least as a first step. If handset growth is not in the market you are in, you need to go there. It doesn't mean you have to abandon your current environment (the latest iPhones prove this). If you plan to make 'services' a major revenue arm you need share and if your sales are flat you need to solve that problem first and foremost.
Apple's strategy right now seems to be to keep older phones 'live' for longer and place them in the lower (but not lowest) segments.
As a first step I think it makes sense as they have increased the pool of potential buyers and can finally take a stab at emerging markets. The problem is that you are selling 'old' phones but the strategy can be tweaked without issues by 'repackaging' them. Using the same base design with upgraded hardware. This what competitors are doing so successfully.
That's where marketing comes in and Apple is pretty good here.
I questioned the lack of external changes on Apple's phones over the last few generations. I think it was a big mistake and might impact progress for next year. Bezels are 'out' (with or without reason) and will be seen as 'old hat' in short order. Apple will have to trudge through 2018 pushing very good phones on the inside dressed up in something that simply isn't going to be 'attractive' to some users. It's something they could have avoided but chose not to.
Yes, more options can create more doubts but at the end of the day, it is price that sways the decision. Financing is not a solution for everybody. Apple's current product offering is a first simple step and well worth trying. If it doesn't give great results, there are other options that involve more effort but going into 2018 with only the 8 and X might have led to difficult times.
1 DED always says Apple is getting over 90% of mobile phone profits. do you have any statistics that show otherwise. Heck google had to bailout HTC.
2. Their are some Apple fans that will always buy Apple's top of the line phone. This year it will be the iPhone X. So sales will shift into the Oct - Dec quarter then Jan 18- Mar 18. Yes financials will fall yoy but bounce back much better in 6 months.
3. I take a look at all the new flagship android phones and there is always a problem with each phone why it can't beat Apple. A. galaxy 8 - beautiful screen but the stupid fingerprint scanner is right next to the camera. B. Note 8 - same thing C. Pixel 2 - great camera but giant Bezels. D. pixel 2XL - great camera but screen color problems as noted by Vlad at TheVerge. E. Essential Phone - great Design ( an a much smaller notch) but poor Camera.
I would be willing to move because of SIRI, but I want somrthing at least as good as my 7plus.
this is not to say the competition isn't getting better. They are. Apple needs to really make SiRi work much better ( why don't they apply some of the AI genius to making Siri work instead of creating talking Pooh) and it's time to increase the Sensor size in the camera. Pixel 2 benefits from having a larger sensor. The dual camera may equal or best the Pixel 2, but the single Camera isn't good enough.
I think the X is killing the 8. Not necessarily because of demand for the X.
This point is something I tend to agree with. While I fully understand that the supply for the X is low and the cost is high (because of constraints with components allegedly and most likely) I do believe the the general Apple lineup is being spread too thin in a fashion similar to the time of Apple where Steve wasn't there.While some would say that choice is good, others find that too much choice leads to buyer indecision which can prevent a sale altogether (since the buyer feels like he is missing out either way).
But hey what do I know? It's just the impression I'm getting but I am sure Tim knows what he is doing.
I think you are absolutely right. I’m a borderline fanboy, but mostly I try to look at the big picture value of the hardware/OS, total cost of ownership, quality ect. I’ve been a long time Apple supporter/apologist but the love is fading.
I’m using an iPhone 6 and have skipped the 6s,7 due to the cost per useful feature addition equation not being value for money for me.
So mostly a logical purchasing process. Saying that, the iPhone 8 is a good phone but not cheap. I just don’t want to pay that much for a second tier phone. I’m just not excited enough. The irrational part of me wants the best iPhone these is. The iPhone 10 has me excited!
Do I want an iPhone X? Absolutely!
But, in Australia, the X is $1244USD for 64gb $1440USD for 256gb!
Instead of a respectful relationship between manufacturer/consumer like “Hey your stuff is pricey, but I see the value, I’ll pay it”
For me personally, Apple has become like a hot entitled girl with a contemptuous attitude, more like “ Watch this, I’ll knee them in the balls, by raising the price to ludicrous levels, bitch slap them and they are still gunna buy it!”
Sorry Apple, you lost an iPhone 8 and an IPhone X sale here.
I think Apple is pushing themselves back into the super luxury realm again like back in the bad old days. Sure they can screw more out less people, but eventually it’s going to reduce the market share critical mass back to unsustainable levels.
Keeping the SE, 6s and 7 in the line up doesn't help sales of the 8 which doesn't *look* any different. It offers a lot, but on the inside. Regular non-tech savvy customers probably have a hard time understanding why they could buy an 8, instead of a 7 or a much cheaper 6s. Which are doing their job pretty well (excluding AR and Wireless charging). Why they are keeping (with the X) 5 models available, it is a bit of a mystery to me.
At the start of this year, Q117 Counterpoint statistics showed that Apple's habitual territory, the 'premium smartphone' segment, had contracted while the so called 'affordable premium' segment saw explosive growth (49%).
It is possible that this wasn't a simple blip and has continued throughout the year. This, (another year on year contraction) could spell trouble for Apple as it has most of its major revenues directly tied to the premium mobile handset market and even if Apple's numbers in the premium segment weren't overly affected in Q1, they have been flat for a while. That situation alone will have been enough to set alarm bells ringing but there is more. Competitors have not only been matching Apple punch for punch for a while now but moving ahead of them. A situation that had no doubt contributed to flat sales. They are not only taking potential sales away from Apple but taking profits too. Apple's share of overall handset profits has been eroding steadily throughout this year. That's something else to be concerned about.
Not only that, but the explosive growth in the affordable premium market is also making money for many of the brands making them. And if that wasn't enough, Apple has slipped to third place in world vendor ratings on unit sales. Something that hadn't happened in many years.
Why is all this happening? First, saturation in the developed world. Most people who have an interest in a smartphone already have one. Second, features. The most sought after features are not reserved for the premium segment phones anymore. Nor is design or build quality. It is becoming increasingly difficult to 'stand out' and if you manage to do it, you are almost certainly not going to be alone. To compound Apple's problems, its yearly release cycle does it no favours while every three months the industry takes another step forward. Competitors have launched entire families of phones during Apple's yearly cycle - and made money off of them.
Lastly, when you look at Apple's numbers worldwide something becomes painfully clear. There is intense pressure on them in the EU. They have already taken a battering in Central and Eastern Europe. Conditions in one of their strongest markets (UK) have been bad for a year and are looking even worse. There is also intense pressure in China and some recent studies have shown that an important Chinese demographic is not showing much interest in Apple. The shining light is the US where Apple is historically strong. That might be about to change though as rumours are pointing to a major competitor entering the US market in 2018, and, for the first time, via a major deal with a national carrier.
I think I've outlined enough issues that, at the very least, are food for thought.
So what can Apple do?
Exactly what it has done. At least as a first step. If handset growth is not in the market you are in, you need to go there. It doesn't mean you have to abandon your current environment (the latest iPhones prove this). If you plan to make 'services' a major revenue arm you need share and if your sales are flat you need to solve that problem first and foremost.
Apple's strategy right now seems to be to keep older phones 'live' for longer and place them in the lower (but not lowest) segments.
As a first step I think it makes sense as they have increased the pool of potential buyers and can finally take a stab at emerging markets. The problem is that you are selling 'old' phones but the strategy can be tweaked without issues by 'repackaging' them. Using the same base design with upgraded hardware. This what competitors are doing so successfully.
That's where marketing comes in and Apple is pretty good here.
I questioned the lack of external changes on Apple's phones over the last few generations. I think it was a big mistake and might impact progress for next year. Bezels are 'out' (with or without reason) and will be seen as 'old hat' in short order. Apple will have to trudge through 2018 pushing very good phones on the inside dressed up in something that simply isn't going to be 'attractive' to some users. It's something they could have avoided but chose not to.
Yes, more options can create more doubts but at the end of the day, it is price that sways the decision. Financing is not a solution for everybody. Apple's current product offering is a first simple step and well worth trying. If it doesn't give great results, there are other options that involve more effort but going into 2018 with only the 8 and X might have led to difficult times.
1 DED always says Apple is getting over 90% of mobile phone profits. do you have any statistics that show otherwise. Heck google had to bailout HTC.
2. Their are some Apple fans that will always buy Apple's top of the line phone. This year it will be the iPhone X. So sales will shift into the Oct - Dec quarter then Jan 18- Mar 18. Yes financials will fall yoy but bounce back much better in 6 months.
3. I take a look at all the new flagship android phones and there is always a problem with each phone why it can't beat Apple. A. galaxy 8 - beautiful screen but the stupid fingerprint scanner is right next to the camera. B. Note 8 - same thing C. Pixel 2 - great camera but giant Bezels. D. pixel 2XL - great camera but screen color problems as noted by Vlad at TheVerge. E. Essential Phone - great Design ( an a much smaller notch) but poor Camera.
I would be willing to move because of SIRI, but I want somrthing at least as good as my 7plus.
this is not to say the competition isn't getting better. They are. Apple needs to really make SiRi work much better ( why don't they apply some of the AI genius to making Siri work instead of creating talking Pooh) and it's time to increase the Sensor size in the camera. Pixel 2 benefits from having a larger sensor. The dual camera may equal or best the Pixel 2, but the single Camera isn't good enough.
On percentage of handset industry profits, figures for 2017 won't be available until early 2018 but this piece puts the figure at 79% for 2016.
On your point 2, I agree with your basic stance and believe there will be a so called supercycle. Beyond that I would have had my doubts but with the new approach on models and pricing I am optimistic. After all, I've been arguing for this kind of change at Apple for quite a while.
On point 3, I have reservations. Even if something isn't quite right, those phones are still huge competitors. We saw the new Pixels very recently and they will have their buyers in spite of their faults. Apple announced their new camera lineup and Google stole the spotlight just days later. Then Huawei took the iPhone 8 Plus and compared its camera work to its new model. Now we see this today:
Yes, it's Dx0 but whichever way you see it, the competition is breathing down Apple's neck and breathing hard.
No phone will be the best at everything for long but Apple has to make its lineup 'compete' for a full year. Huawei and Samsung and many others already have new phones primed for MWC2018. It's tough to compete against an avalanche of phones that are actually 'better' than your best in many areas and some surveys don't paint the best of pictures:
I know Siri is lacking but it's something I see as 'fixable' off the phone and doesn't concern me that much as I don't use any voice assistants (on Android or iOS). For others it is an issue. That said, offline AI is (or soon will be) very important.
The CEO of Canadian communications giant Rogers said that the company is so far seeing "anemic" demand for Apple's iPhone 8, potentially adding to the evidence that global sales are soft.
"What we're seeing is sort of...anemic appetite for the iPhone 8," CEO Joe Natale remarked during a Thursday earnings call, according to Reuters. The executive suggested that customers are interested in the iPhone X, which has an edge-to-edge OLED display and Face ID, and ships Nov. 3. Preorders start a week earlier.
Natale cautioned that the cost of the device and potential supply problems are risks for Rogers's outlook.
Everyone needs to remember that Rogers is a rip-off and once Android came on the market, they started pushing those rubbish phones with high markups. Nobody in Canada in their right mind would buy an Apple phone from the carrier when they can get it cheaper from Apple directly.
The wireless carriers make you pay through the nose for the phones in the first place and lock you into a 3-year contract. If you can just buy the phone outright, and have no reason to change your plan, then there's no reason to buy from the carrier. I've not once bought a phone from Rogers, and finally got rid of Rogers after like 15 years of staying on the same rate plan so I wouldn't have to be locked into a rubbish phone.
Comments
It is possible that this wasn't a simple blip and has continued throughout the year. This, (another year on year contraction) could spell trouble for Apple as it has most of its major revenues directly tied to the premium mobile handset market and even if Apple's numbers in the premium segment weren't overly affected in Q1, they have been flat for a while. That situation alone will have been enough to set alarm bells ringing but there is more. Competitors have not only been matching Apple punch for punch for a while now but moving ahead of them. A situation that had no doubt contributed to flat sales. They are not only taking potential sales away from Apple but taking profits too. Apple's share of overall handset profits has been eroding steadily throughout this year. That's something else to be concerned about.
Not only that, but the explosive growth in the affordable premium market is also making money for many of the brands making them. And if that wasn't enough, Apple has slipped to third place in world vendor ratings on unit sales. Something that hadn't happened in many years.
Why is all this happening? First, saturation in the developed world. Most people who have an interest in a smartphone already have one. Second, features. The most sought after features are not reserved for the premium segment phones anymore. Nor is design or build quality. It is becoming increasingly difficult to 'stand out' and if you manage to do it, you are almost certainly not going to be alone. To compound Apple's problems, its yearly release cycle does it no favours while every three months the industry takes another step forward. Competitors have launched entire families of phones during Apple's yearly cycle - and made money off of them.
Lastly, when you look at Apple's numbers worldwide something becomes painfully clear. There is intense pressure on them in the EU. They have already taken a battering in Central and Eastern Europe. Conditions in one of their strongest markets (UK) have been bad for a year and are looking even worse. There is also intense pressure in China and some recent studies have shown that an important Chinese demographic is not showing much interest in Apple. The shining light is the US where Apple is historically strong. That might be about to change though as rumours are pointing to a major competitor entering the US market in 2018, and, for the first time, via a major deal with a national carrier.
I think I've outlined enough issues that, at the very least, are food for thought.
So what can Apple do?
Exactly what it has done. At least as a first step. If handset growth is not in the market you are in, you need to go there. It doesn't mean you have to abandon your current environment (the latest iPhones prove this). If you plan to make 'services' a major revenue arm you need share and if your sales are flat you need to solve that problem first and foremost.
Apple's strategy right now seems to be to keep older phones 'live' for longer and place them in the lower (but not lowest) segments.
As a first step I think it makes sense as they have increased the pool of potential buyers and can finally take a stab at emerging markets. The problem is that you are selling 'old' phones but the strategy can be tweaked without issues by 'repackaging' them. Using the same base design with upgraded hardware. This what competitors are doing so successfully.
That's where marketing comes in and Apple is pretty good here.
I questioned the lack of external changes on Apple's phones over the last few generations. I think it was a big mistake and might impact progress for next year. Bezels are 'out' (with or without reason) and will be seen as 'old hat' in short order. Apple will have to trudge through 2018 pushing very good phones on the inside dressed up in something that simply isn't going to be 'attractive' to some users. It's something they could have avoided but chose not to.
Yes, more options can create more doubts but at the end of the day, it is price that sways the decision. Financing is not a solution for everybody. Apple's current product offering is a first simple step and well worth trying. If it doesn't give great results, there are other options that involve more effort but going into 2018 with only the 8 and X might have led to difficult times.
Spreading the offer out over different models makes more sense now and can be tweaked later if need be. Taking the easiest and cheapest route first and seeing how it plays out makes sense to me.
'buyer confusion' isn't really an issue as there aren't that many elements to consider and anyone that is completely lost can simply ask someone to recommend the best option based on needs and budget.
2. Their are some Apple fans that will always buy Apple's top of the line phone. This year it will be the iPhone X. So sales will shift into the Oct - Dec quarter then Jan 18- Mar 18. Yes financials will fall yoy but bounce back much better in 6 months.
3. I take a look at all the new flagship android phones and there is always a problem with each phone why it can't beat Apple.
A. galaxy 8 - beautiful screen but the stupid fingerprint scanner is right next to the camera.
B. Note 8 - same thing
C. Pixel 2 - great camera but giant Bezels.
D. pixel 2XL - great camera but screen color problems as noted by Vlad at TheVerge.
E. Essential Phone - great Design ( an a much smaller notch) but poor Camera.
I would be willing to move because of SIRI, but I want somrthing at least as good as my 7plus.
this is not to say the competition isn't getting better. They are. Apple needs to really make SiRi work much better ( why don't they apply some of the AI genius to making Siri work instead of creating talking Pooh) and it's time to increase the Sensor size in the camera. Pixel 2 benefits from having a larger sensor. The dual camera may equal or best the Pixel 2, but the single Camera isn't good enough.
http://m.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20170308000345
On your point 2, I agree with your basic stance and believe there will be a so called supercycle. Beyond that I would have had my doubts but with the new approach on models and pricing I am optimistic. After all, I've been arguing for this kind of change at Apple for quite a while.
On point 3, I have reservations. Even if something isn't quite right, those phones are still huge competitors. We saw the new Pixels very recently and they will have their buyers in spite of their faults. Apple announced their new camera lineup and Google stole the spotlight just days later. Then Huawei took the iPhone 8 Plus and compared its camera work to its new model. Now we see this today:
https://www.dxomark.com/huawei-mate-10-pro-oustanding-still-image-performance/
Yes, it's Dx0 but whichever way you see it, the competition is breathing down Apple's neck and breathing hard.
No phone will be the best at everything for long but Apple has to make its lineup 'compete' for a full year. Huawei and Samsung and many others already have new phones primed for MWC2018. It's tough to compete against an avalanche of phones that are actually 'better' than your best in many areas and some surveys don't paint the best of pictures:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/apple-trails-huawei-among-chinese-phone-buyers-2017-10-02
I know Siri is lacking but it's something I see as 'fixable' off the phone and doesn't concern me that much as I don't use any voice assistants (on Android or iOS). For others it is an issue. That said, offline AI is (or soon will be) very important.
The wireless carriers make you pay through the nose for the phones in the first place and lock you into a 3-year contract. If you can just buy the phone outright, and have no reason to change your plan, then there's no reason to buy from the carrier. I've not once bought a phone from Rogers, and finally got rid of Rogers after like 15 years of staying on the same rate plan so I wouldn't have to be locked into a rubbish phone.