KGI: Intel might be exclusive modem supplier for 2018 iPhone lineup, Qualcomm iced out

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Comments

  • Reply 21 of 38
    StrangeDaysStrangeDays Posts: 11,574member
    k2kw said:
    jrholmes said:
    proline said:
    bluefire1 said:
    If the QCOM chips used in iPhones is superior to the one from Intel, then I hope the company resolves its issues with Apple sooner rather then later and returns to the fold. 
    The cellphone network is rarely able to achieve the top speeds possible with existing chips, and when those tops speeds are achieved there is little need for anything faster. There is therefore not a huge rush at the moment making this an excellent time for Apple to take their time and make sure that Qualcomm's attitude is properly adjusted. Another year at Intel speeds will be just fine. 
    Superior modem isn't about the peak speeds, but the performance in low signal conditions. When the conditions are poor, which is more often than ideal, Qualcomm's digital signal processing shines, outperforming Intel modem by a wide margin. That's where a good modem makes a difference, not when the signal is pristine...
    So if Apple is going to put cheaper inferior modems into its phones do you think they will lower the price of the phones.   Probably not.   And after Meltdown and Spectre (and Intel's response to it) the last thing I want is intel in the phones.   Another been counter mistake like their crap-out batteries.
    So is it mandatory for you to crap on apple every story? Inferior modems? Bean counters? Crap batteries? What nonsense. 

    At least you’ve made identifying your narrative agenda easy. 
    edited February 2018 netmagematrix077williamlondonwatto_cobra
  • Reply 22 of 38
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 9,466member
    We are regularly treated to the opinions of the financial genius gods who lurk here about the problem with Apple relying too much on the iPhone for revenue. Apple should diversify, Apple should not have all its eggs in one basket, Apple is doomed. Now comes a report that says Qualcomm will suffer greatly if they lose their Apple supplier business. Why hasn’t Qualcomm been raked over the coals for relying too much on Apple for revenue? 
    netmagewatto_cobraRayz2016
  • Reply 23 of 38
    ksecksec Posts: 1,567member
    Previously, the analyst believed Qualcomm would take a 70 percent share of baseband chip orders, with the remainder going to Intel.

    That was long time ago, I dont believe he said it recently, source?

    The next Intel LTE Modem will be the first Intel modem fabbed themselves with 14nm++. All previous ones were TSMC. It has been ready for months and I hope Apple test the sh*t out of it before going all in.

    Given the recent surge in Apple hiring LTE expert, numbers that is certainly not merely for validation of Intel modem, it is highly likely in 2 years time Apple will have its own 4G modem inside its SoC.

    But this pcs of news, and the market pull back, surely is going to give Qualcomm lots of pressure in regards to Broadcom take over.



    edited February 2018
  • Reply 24 of 38
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 9,466member
    k2kw said:
    jrholmes said:
    proline said:
    bluefire1 said:
    If the QCOM chips used in iPhones is superior to the one from Intel, then I hope the company resolves its issues with Apple sooner rather then later and returns to the fold. 
    The cellphone network is rarely able to achieve the top speeds possible with existing chips, and when those tops speeds are achieved there is little need for anything faster. There is therefore not a huge rush at the moment making this an excellent time for Apple to take their time and make sure that Qualcomm's attitude is properly adjusted. Another year at Intel speeds will be just fine. 
    Superior modem isn't about the peak speeds, but the performance in low signal conditions. When the conditions are poor, which is more often than ideal, Qualcomm's digital signal processing shines, outperforming Intel modem by a wide margin. That's where a good modem makes a difference, not when the signal is pristine...
    So if Apple is going to put cheaper inferior modems into its phones do you think they will lower the price of the phones.   Probably not.   And after Meltdown and Spectre (and Intel's response to it) the last thing I want is intel in the phones.   Another been counter mistake like their crap-out batteries.
    So is it mandatory for you to crap on apple every story? Inferior modems? Bean counters? Crap batteries? What nonsense. 

    At least you’ve made identifying your narrative agenda easy. 
    Well, that’s the problem with Apple centric sites these days. Most have been literally taken over by trolls and haters with negative narratives that simply don’t correspond to the  real world. Any article about anything Apple is immediately attacked with a negative slant. You might ask yourself why anyone with that much negative attitude toward Apple would be an Apple owner/customer. The answer is, of course, they are not Apple owners even though they protest that they are and list their street creds constantly. Some site administrators admit they have a troll problem but are either unable or unwilling to deal with it. The worst of the worst is MacRumors which is essentially an Apple hate site now with the comment sections completely dominated by trolls and haters. 9TO5Mac is close behind with two or three commenters that spew negativity in every single comment thread. 
    netmagetmaywilliamlondonwatto_cobra
  • Reply 25 of 38
    noted crystal ball gazer and soothsayer Ming-Chi Kuo

    There fixed it for you.

    On this topic... well Duh! Hasn't this been on the cards for a while now? It does not need a noted analyst [cough-cough] to forecast this. Pretty well anyone with half a mind on the Mobile Tech space could have said this very thing months ago. some even did say it yet he's still given credit for 'stuff'.
    Bah Humbug!

    Qualcom’s 2 main revenue streams come from Snapdragon processors and modems. 

    Only Android handsets use the Snapdragon processor. Worldwide smartphone handset unit sales declined 9% during the December quarter, EXCEPTING iPhone. Ergo the decline in handset unit sales were in Android powered models, negatively impacting Qualcomm’s Snapdragon revenue stream. 

    Further, Apple is shifting more and more of its modem business away from Qualcomm. 

    I think Android unit sales are going to continue declining. Why?  Google takes its Android lead from Apple.  The problem here is that iOS advancements in recent years have been processor dependent.  Google can’t follow where processors are key to future enhancements. 

    This is means that for the past several years Android hasn’t presented a compelling reason to upgrade, resulting in extended upgrade cycles (and fewer sales over time). 

    Throw own in the the majority on Android sales are cheap, glorified feature phones wherein technological enhancements are of little importance to the consumer. 

    I think the Android market has hit saturation with ever increasing upgrade cycle lengths.   The myth that Android is dominant because of unit sales is in the process of diminishing. 


    watto_cobra
  • Reply 26 of 38
    sflocalsflocal Posts: 5,732member
    k2kw said:
    So if Apple is going to put cheaper inferior modems into its phones do you think they will lower the price of the phones.   Probably not.   And after Meltdown and Spectre (and Intel's response to it) the last thing I want is intel in the phones.   Another been counter mistake like their crap-out batteries.
    I see you had a lot of whine with your cheese.

    That Spectre/Meltdown issue was not limited to Intel chips, but then you already knew that. 

    The Intel modem was not "inferior".  Sure, it's slower than QC's offerings, but then again, the cellular network those chips run on are magnitudes slower to even tax the Intel modem.  Then again, you already knew that.

    Their "crap-out" batteries saga were typical apple-hating drama fabricated by people like you with an agenda to push.

    So if you're going to troll, at least do a better job of at it.
    tmaywilliamlondonwatto_cobra
  • Reply 27 of 38
    tjwolftjwolf Posts: 398member
    noted crystal ball gazer and soothsayer Ming-Chi Kuo

    There fixed it for you.

    On this topic... well Duh! Hasn't this been on the cards for a while now? It does not need a noted analyst [cough-cough] to forecast this. Pretty well anyone with half a mind on the Mobile Tech space could have said this very thing months ago. some even did say it yet he's still given credit for 'stuff'.
    Bah Humbug!

    Wherher something is “in the cards” is a whole lot easier than forecasting a time.  Others have forecast it would happen in 2017 - and were obviously wrong.  Kuo is forecasting it for 2018.  We have to see if he’s right.  I think he’s wrong.  When has Apple ever decreased diversification intentionally?  As the author himself notes, Apple likes it the opposite way - so they can play 2 vendors off each other.  I think AAPL will keep QCOM as a vendor - just reduce their share substantially.  
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 28 of 38
    k2kw said:
    jrholmes said:
    proline said:
    bluefire1 said:
    If the QCOM chips used in iPhones is superior to the one from Intel, then I hope the company resolves its issues with Apple sooner rather then later and returns to the fold. 
    The cellphone network is rarely able to achieve the top speeds possible with existing chips, and when those tops speeds are achieved there is little need for anything faster. There is therefore not a huge rush at the moment making this an excellent time for Apple to take their time and make sure that Qualcomm's attitude is properly adjusted. Another year at Intel speeds will be just fine. 
    Superior modem isn't about the peak speeds, but the performance in low signal conditions. When the conditions are poor, which is more often than ideal, Qualcomm's digital signal processing shines, outperforming Intel modem by a wide margin. That's where a good modem makes a difference, not when the signal is pristine...
    So if Apple is going to put cheaper inferior modems into its phones do you think they will lower the price of the phones.   Probably not.   And after Meltdown and Spectre (and Intel's response to it) the last thing I want is intel in the phones.   Another been counter mistake like their crap-out batteries.
    Batteries are standard across the industry -- and they are consumable depending on environment (extreme heat/cold) and how many cycles have been through them.  My iPhone 4s spends most of it's time on my desk -- only bring it with me when I need maps, am expecting I have to receive work messages, or using it as a modem when travelling -- and because it is in air conditioned environment with less cycles being burned the battery is still in fairly good condition..  Some people will be able to drop the battery below 80% in less than 2 years if they drive it hard or leave it in unair-conditioned cars etc.  (a battery less than 80% should be replaced since that is when it is considered depleted).  The issue where Apple failed is not being transparent with the battery needing servicing -- and yes that was a serious mistake.  

    BTW, I far prefer my phone to adjust to resources - like does when the phone is running out of charge.... than my batteries exploding in my pocket (Samsung).
    williamlondonwatto_cobraAnilu_777
  • Reply 29 of 38
    smalmsmalm Posts: 671member
    tjwolf said:

    Kuo is forecasting it for 2018.  We have to see if he’s right.  I think he’s wrong.  When has Apple ever decreased diversification intentionally?  As the author himself notes, Apple likes it the opposite way - so they can play 2 vendors off each other.  I think AAPL will keep QCOM as a vendor - just reduce their share substantially.  
    I think Kuo is right.
    CDMA was the only reason to keep Qualcomm's modem. The XMM 7560 fixed that.
    And with 1000/225 Mbps download/upload, support for 5x Carrier aggregation, and 4x4 MIMO it's more than good enough for iPhone 2018.
    Apple easily gives up diversification when it suits them. I think Intel is willing and able to meet the production volume Apple needs.
    watto_cobratmay
  • Reply 30 of 38
    k2kwk2kw Posts: 2,048member
    sflocal said:
    k2kw said:
    So if Apple is going to put cheaper inferior modems into its phones do you think they will lower the price of the phones.   Probably not.   And after Meltdown and Spectre (and Intel's response to it) the last thing I want is intel in the phones.   Another been counter mistake like their crap-out batteries.
    I see you had a lot of whine with your cheese.

    That Spectre/Meltdown issue was not limited to Intel chips, but then you already knew that. 

    The Intel modem was not "inferior".  Sure, it's slower than QC's offerings, but then again, the cellular network those chips run on are magnitudes slower to even tax the Intel modem.  Then again, you already knew that.

    Their "crap-out" batteries saga were typical apple-hating drama fabricated by people like you with an agenda to push.

    So if you're going to troll, at least do a better job of at it.
    My agenda is that I expect the best components (not just good enough) for the prices Apple charges.   I carry both an iPhone 7Plus (Verizon) and 8Plus (ATT).   I own a little stock but not enough to skew my exceptions of what I want out of Apple products just for the price to get above $200.00.  Apple's manufacturing standards are still far above Android manufacturers (look at all the problems with the Pixel2/2XL - which why I get concerned by rumors of Apple using an LG screen even if their profit margin goes up.)   iOS still remains the best mobile OS even though I don't like some changes  (podcast app mainly) or SIRI.   

    I guess I haven't joined the cult and drunk the Koolaide.
    williamlondonmuthuk_vanalingamAnilu_777
  • Reply 31 of 38
    viclauyyc said:
    Can someone enlighten me if Apple can just buy Qcom? I mean when 2 companies are in law battles?
    Why buy a bankrupting company? If this goes Apple’s way, it will have access to Qualcomm technology with a fair licensing agreement, while at the same time, keeping Intel, for supplier diversity.

    Buying Qualcomm will be a ill-advised use of money. All Apple would accomplish is buying into liability from various entities suing or investigating its practices! Also, a good slice of the money would be spent providing golden parachutes for Qualcomm’s top brass... you know, the geniuses who caused this whole mess.

    So no, not worth saving! Let it heal itself, with a major management and business shake up, or crash and burn! For all we know, this Intel deal may be a stopgap measure. An Apple baseband modem is on the tea leaves for a long time now.
    Apple would be interested in the patents. From what it looks like, all of the smartphone manufacturers pay a royalty to. It would be like when Google bought Motorola, except Apple wouldn't overpay like Google did. 


    watto_cobra
  • Reply 32 of 38
    k2kw said:
    sflocal said:
    k2kw said:
    So if Apple is going to put cheaper inferior modems into its phones do you think they will lower the price of the phones.   Probably not.   And after Meltdown and Spectre (and Intel's response to it) the last thing I want is intel in the phones.   Another been counter mistake like their crap-out batteries.
    I see you had a lot of whine with your cheese.

    That Spectre/Meltdown issue was not limited to Intel chips, but then you already knew that. 

    The Intel modem was not "inferior".  Sure, it's slower than QC's offerings, but then again, the cellular network those chips run on are magnitudes slower to even tax the Intel modem.  Then again, you already knew that.

    Their "crap-out" batteries saga were typical apple-hating drama fabricated by people like you with an agenda to push.

    So if you're going to troll, at least do a better job of at it.
    My agenda is that I expect the best components (not just good enough) for the prices Apple charges.   I carry both an iPhone 7Plus (Verizon) and 8Plus (ATT).   I own a little stock but not enough to skew my exceptions of what I want out of Apple products just for the price to get above $200.00.  Apple's manufacturing standards are still far above Android manufacturers (look at all the problems with the Pixel2/2XL - which why I get concerned by rumors of Apple using an LG screen even if their profit margin goes up.)   iOS still remains the best mobile OS even though I don't like some changes  (podcast app mainly) or SIRI.   

    I guess I haven't joined the cult and drunk the Koolaide.
    My 'agenda' is that I buy the best product for the price that I am paying.  I don't care what the individual components are - in fact I don't know any vendor that details what is in each phone.  You can have all the best components and still have a crap product.  In fact the speed of the data is unimportant since if you used the full bandwidth you would be over your data cap in minutes if not seconds.  What counts though is how much power it consumes, how good it works in low coverage area (if you go to low coverage areas), and of course power used in low coverage areas (which is more than good coverage areas).  Remember that in the US/Canada you will likely pay up to $3,000 to $4,000 dollars over the lifetime of the phone (cost of phone + service over the life of the usage - typically up to 4 years)...  Worry about saving $100 or $200 in upfront cost when you are not fully satisfied with your phone is ... idiotic.  The markup on the product is typically consistent... so if they save on the modem, they will offset with another component upgrades (assuming the price point is the same).  All products are a balancing act of features.
    edited February 2018 watto_cobrawilliamlondon
  • Reply 33 of 38
    bigpicsbigpics Posts: 1,397member
    viclauyyc said:
    Can someone enlighten me if Apple can just buy Qcom? I mean when 2 companies are in law battles?
    Why buy a bankrupting company? If this goes Apple’s way, it will have access to Qualcomm technology with a fair licensing agreement, while at the same time, keeping Intel, for supplier diversity.

    Buying Qualcomm will be a ill-advised use of money. All Apple would accomplish is buying into liability from various entities suing or investigating its practices! Also, a good slice of the money would be spent providing golden parachutes for Qualcomm’s top brass... you know, the geniuses who caused this whole mess.

    So no, not worth saving! Let it heal itself, with a major management and business shake up, or crash and burn! For all we know, this Intel deal may be a stopgap measure. An Apple baseband modem is on the tea leaves for a long time now.
    Avieshek said:
    Broadcom & Qualcomm merger is close.
    And Broadcom is finding a little ($120Bn) residual value...   

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-qualcomm-m-a-broadcom-exclusive/exclusive-broadcom-to-raise-qualcomm-bid-in-push-for-talks-sources-say-idUSKBN1FO0SG
  • Reply 34 of 38
    ksecksec Posts: 1,567member
    I think one things needs to make clear.

    My agenda is that I expect the best components (not just good enough) for the prices Apple charges.   I carry both an iPhone 7Plus (Verizon) and 8Plus (ATT).   I own a little stock but not enough to skew my exceptions of what I want out of Apple products just for the price to get above $200.00.  Apple's manufacturing standards are still far above Android manufacturers (look at all the problems with the Pixel2/2XL - which why I get concerned by rumors of Apple using an LG screen even if their profit margin goes up.)   iOS still remains the best mobile OS even though I don't like some changes  (podcast app mainly) or SIRI.   

    I guess I haven't joined the cult and drunk the Koolaide.

    Intel's modem may not be the best, and very likely they are not. But it doesn't automatically mean Intel's modem are worst or bad.

    The first Intel Modem in iPhone 7, needless to say wasn't very good. The one in iPhone 8 fare much better. Both does actually have minor improvement with software update as Apple are tuning and testing the with user's devices in the field.

    Another thing I wanted to point out Apple never had the best Qualcomm modem on the iPhone, it was always a generation older. Why?

    You cant have Latest Modem + SoC competing for capacity in the same node at TSMC. That is combined nearly 500M unit per year from leading node just for Apple. To give you a perspective Intel ship less then 250M unit per year, and not all of them are on leading node.

    With Intel now fabbing the next modem themselves, Apple will actually have a better modem then if they were to get it from Qualcomm.

    P.S  - At least that was what looks like when iPhone 7 had Intel modem, Apple must have made the decision in iPhone 6s or earlier. Qualcomm has now switched to Samsung 14mn, which is the reason why Apple were able to have latest modem in iPhone 8 and X, at least they have the capacity for 50% of iPhone. But I doubt Samsung could spin out additional 100M / year capacity if Apple were only to use Qualcomm. So it is still pretty much the same scenario. 

  • Reply 35 of 38
    jkichlinejkichline Posts: 1,352member
    k2kw said:
    jrholmes said:
    proline said:
    bluefire1 said:
    If the QCOM chips used in iPhones is superior to the one from Intel, then I hope the company resolves its issues with Apple sooner rather then later and returns to the fold. 
    The cellphone network is rarely able to achieve the top speeds possible with existing chips, and when those tops speeds are achieved there is little need for anything faster. There is therefore not a huge rush at the moment making this an excellent time for Apple to take their time and make sure that Qualcomm's attitude is properly adjusted. Another year at Intel speeds will be just fine. 
    Superior modem isn't about the peak speeds, but the performance in low signal conditions. When the conditions are poor, which is more often than ideal, Qualcomm's digital signal processing shines, outperforming Intel modem by a wide margin. That's where a good modem makes a difference, not when the signal is pristine...
    So if Apple is going to put cheaper inferior modems into its phones do you think they will lower the price of the phones.   Probably not.   And after Meltdown and Spectre (and Intel's response to it) the last thing I want is intel in the phones.   Another been counter mistake like their crap-out batteries.
    You obviously don’t understand CPU design. Every modem processor was/is effected... this includes Intel, AMD and ARM processors (every iOS and android device) Baseband modems do not work on the same principals as a general purpose CPU and are not effected by Meltdown and Spectre.

    So to sum up for you...
    A) Your phone and computer are already effected no matter what you have.
    B) The baseband modem is not effected at all.
    watto_cobraRayz2016
  • Reply 36 of 38
    jkichline said:
    k2kw said:
    jrholmes said:
    proline said:
    bluefire1 said:
    If the QCOM chips used in iPhones is superior to the one from Intel, then I hope the company resolves its issues with Apple sooner rather then later and returns to the fold. 
    The cellphone network is rarely able to achieve the top speeds possible with existing chips, and when those tops speeds are achieved there is little need for anything faster. There is therefore not a huge rush at the moment making this an excellent time for Apple to take their time and make sure that Qualcomm's attitude is properly adjusted. Another year at Intel speeds will be just fine. 
    Superior modem isn't about the peak speeds, but the performance in low signal conditions. When the conditions are poor, which is more often than ideal, Qualcomm's digital signal processing shines, outperforming Intel modem by a wide margin. That's where a good modem makes a difference, not when the signal is pristine...
    So if Apple is going to put cheaper inferior modems into its phones do you think they will lower the price of the phones.   Probably not.   And after Meltdown and Spectre (and Intel's response to it) the last thing I want is intel in the phones.   Another been counter mistake like their crap-out batteries.
    You obviously don’t understand CPU design. Every modem processor was/is effected... this includes Intel, AMD and ARM processors (every iOS and android device) Baseband modems do not work on the same principals as a general purpose CPU and are not effected by Meltdown and Spectre.

    So to sum up for you...
    A) Your phone and computer are already effected no matter what you have.
    B) The baseband modem is not effected at all.
    What is harder to figure out is the impact of the speculative execution bugs are for each of the processors.  Intel seems to have supposedly the most impact performance wise, but I cannot find any data for ARM based CPUs or AMD.
  • Reply 37 of 38
    viclauyyc said:
    Can someone enlighten me if Apple can just buy Qcom? I mean when 2 companies are in law battles?
    Why buy a bankrupting company? If this goes Apple’s way, it will have access to Qualcomm technology with a fair licensing agreement, while at the same time, keeping Intel, for supplier diversity.

    Buying Qualcomm will be a ill-advised use of money. All Apple would accomplish is buying into liability from various entities suing or investigating its practices! Also, a good slice of the money would be spent providing golden parachutes for Qualcomm’s top brass... you know, the geniuses who caused this whole mess.

    So no, not worth saving! Let it heal itself, with a major management and business shake up, or crash and burn! For all we know, this Intel deal may be a stopgap measure. An Apple baseband modem is on the tea leaves for a long time now.
    Apple would be interested in the patents. From what it looks like, all of the smartphone manufacturers pay a royalty to. It would be like when Google bought Motorola, except Apple wouldn't overpay like Google did. 


    Apple could also find themselves in the middle of the deal since they have large sums of cash coming in from offshore that they need to invest.  Even if they are not looking to takeover Qualcomm (and I doubt they are), they could be involved in the deal and/or arranging some asset acquisition if there is potential of Broadcom/Qualcomm review by the government.  They could get something out of it, or they could just be providing some financing (bonds, preferred shares).  When Apple takes over a company they usually are looking at things that they can integrate into existing products, currently Qualcomm is not the business that Apple is in -- or wants to be in (i.e. they don't generally build components for other companies products).  
  • Reply 38 of 38
    bluefire1 said:
    If the QCOM chips used in iPhones is superior to the one from Intel, then I hope the company resolves its issues with Apple sooner rather then later and returns to the fold. 
    Crunch time.  It’s time for Broadcom to buy Qualcomm and settle the dispute...

    Long term Apple will use an in-house designed wireless tech.  Using inferior equipment isn’t Apple’s style, and Intel was clearly inferior.
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