iPhone X follow-up will start at $899 with 'plus' version hitting $999 says analyst

Posted:
in iPhone
Apple could choose to make this year's 5.8-inch iPhone X successor $100 cheaper at $899, reserving the old pricetag for a new 6.5-inch device, according to one analyst.




The company has had "limited success" trying to pitch the iPhone X at $999, RBC Capital Markets analyst Amit Daryanani argued in an investor memo obtained by AppleInsider. Making its follow-up cheaper would lower Apple's average selling price but might compensate by increasing units sold, he said.

The memo agrees with rumors pointing to Apple shipping three new iPhones this year. The first two -- the 5.8- and 6.5-inch models -- should use OLED displays, but the third is expected to adopt a 6.1-inch LCD format.

Daryanani suggested that the LCD model will use aluminum edges, while the OLED ones will be equipped with "premium steel."

Critically, all three phones are likely to use Face ID -- something currently reserved for the X, and enabling smaller bezels by ditching the need for a home button, where Touch ID devices have their fingerprint sensor.

It isn't clear where Daryanani sourced the data about pricing, or if the estimates are an educated guess based on the history of Apple's prior pricing moves. Prior to the iPhone X release, analysts suspected that the iPhone X could start at $1200.

For years Apple's flagship iPhones started at $649, with marketing claiming $199 price points with carrier subsidies. While the iPhone X can be seen as a special case, even the iPhone 8 -- which has a 4.7-inch LCD, and lacks Face ID -- is priced at $699.

Apple is likely to announce its 2018 iPhone lineup in September, as usual. The company may start trial production as soon as next quarter, looking to avoid a repeat of the delays that forced the X to ship in November 2017. Reports have blamed that on the 3D-sensing TrueDepth camera, which is said to be difficult to make.

RBC is maintaining an "outperform" rating for Apple stock, including a $205 target.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 30
    Rayz2016Rayz2016 Posts: 4,631member
    The company has had "limited success" trying to pitch the iPhone X at $999
    Er … okay. 🙄
    edited March 2018 mike1anton zuykovmavemufcStrangeDayssupadav03JaiOh81watto_cobra
  • Reply 2 of 30
    SoliSoli Posts: 8,969member
    Rayz2016 said:
    The company has had "limited success" trying to pitch the iPhone X at $999
    Er … okay. 🙄
     It’s true¡ Their success is limited to how many they can make.
    anton zuykovStrangeDayswatto_cobra
  • Reply 3 of 30
    mike1mike1 Posts: 1,898member
    Rayz2016 said:
    The company has had "limited success" trying to pitch the iPhone X at $999
    Er … okay. 🙄
    That narrative is so stupid, it's almost comical. On the last earnings call, Tim said the X was the best selling phone that quarter and proceeded to give the total # of iPhones sold. I'm trying to understand how the most expensive phone Apple has ever offered and is the best seller of all the bazillions of iphones sold could be considered a limited success.
    StrangeDaysJaiOh81watto_cobra
  • Reply 4 of 30
    SoliSoli Posts: 8,969member
    mike1 said:
    Rayz2016 said:
    The company has had "limited success" trying to pitch the iPhone X at $999
    Er … okay. 🙄
    That narrative is so stupid, it's almost comical. On the last earnings call, Tim said the X was the best selling phone that quarter and proceeded to give the total # of iPhones sold. I'm trying to understand how the most expensive phone Apple has ever offered and is the best seller of all the bazillions of iphones sold could be considered a limited success.
    Did they report on an ASRP in the last earnings call?
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 5 of 30
    rogifan_newrogifan_new Posts: 4,101member
    Soli said:
    mike1 said:
    Rayz2016 said:
    The company has had "limited success" trying to pitch the iPhone X at $999
    Er … okay. 🙄
    That narrative is so stupid, it's almost comical. On the last earnings call, Tim said the X was the best selling phone that quarter and proceeded to give the total # of iPhones sold. I'm trying to understand how the most expensive phone Apple has ever offered and is the best seller of all the bazillions of iphones sold could be considered a limited success.
    Did they report on an ASRP in the last earnings call?
    $796. $100 higher than the year ago quarter. 
    Soli
  • Reply 6 of 30
    fallenjtfallenjt Posts: 3,976member
    So:
    iPhone X+: $999
    iPhone X: $899
    6.1" iPhone (9+ or Whatever): $799
    iPhone 8+: $699
    iPhone 8: $599
    iPhone 7+: $469?
    iPhone 7: $349?
    iPhone 6s+
    iPhone 6s
    Apple probably kill the 6 and 7 series completely and I can see a possible SE2 at $399-$499 for replacement there.
    edited March 2018
  • Reply 7 of 30
    canukstormcanukstorm Posts: 1,949member
    Soli said:
    mike1 said:
    Rayz2016 said:
    The company has had "limited success" trying to pitch the iPhone X at $999
    Er … okay. 🙄
    That narrative is so stupid, it's almost comical. On the last earnings call, Tim said the X was the best selling phone that quarter and proceeded to give the total # of iPhones sold. I'm trying to understand how the most expensive phone Apple has ever offered and is the best seller of all the bazillions of iphones sold could be considered a limited success.
    Did they report on an ASRP in the last earnings call?
    $796. $100 higher than the year ago quarter. 
    That could also mean very high sales of of iPhone 8 Plus, not just iPhone X.
  • Reply 8 of 30
    mike1mike1 Posts: 1,898member
    Soli said:
    mike1 said:
    Rayz2016 said:
    The company has had "limited success" trying to pitch the iPhone X at $999
    Er … okay. 🙄
    That narrative is so stupid, it's almost comical. On the last earnings call, Tim said the X was the best selling phone that quarter and proceeded to give the total # of iPhones sold. I'm trying to understand how the most expensive phone Apple has ever offered and is the best seller of all the bazillions of iphones sold could be considered a limited success.
    Did they report on an ASRP in the last earnings call?
    $796. $100 higher than the year ago quarter. 
    That could also mean very high sales of of iPhone 8 Plus, not just iPhone X.
    But last year there was a 7+. Maybe the bigger phone sold more this year than last, but I can't imagine it was enough to increase the ASP by a $100.
  • Reply 9 of 30
    SoliSoli Posts: 8,969member
    mike1 said:
    Soli said:
    mike1 said:
    Rayz2016 said:
    The company has had "limited success" trying to pitch the iPhone X at $999
    Er … okay. 🙄
    That narrative is so stupid, it's almost comical. On the last earnings call, Tim said the X was the best selling phone that quarter and proceeded to give the total # of iPhones sold. I'm trying to understand how the most expensive phone Apple has ever offered and is the best seller of all the bazillions of iphones sold could be considered a limited success.
    Did they report on an ASRP in the last earnings call?
    $796. $100 higher than the year ago quarter. 
    That could also mean very high sales of of iPhone 8 Plus, not just iPhone X.
    But last year there was a 7+. Maybe the bigger phone sold more this year than last, but I can't imagine it was enough to increase the ASP by a $100.
    I think his comment was about the price of the device, not the size, except for the capacity of the storage. That said, the increase would've probably been factored in back in 2016 when the price jumped by $120 for the 32GB model. For 2017 the price per GB dropped and I can't see any model for those that fall within the windows of needing 32GB but not 64GB and needing more than 64GB but not more than 128GB as being able to shore up the difference for Apple dropping 2 just tier capacity tiers. I think it all clearly points to the success fo the iPhone X.
    h2p
  • Reply 10 of 30
    78Bandit78Bandit Posts: 232member
    mike1 said:
    Soli said:
    mike1 said:
    Rayz2016 said:
    The company has had "limited success" trying to pitch the iPhone X at $999
    Er … okay. 🙄
    That narrative is so stupid, it's almost comical. On the last earnings call, Tim said the X was the best selling phone that quarter and proceeded to give the total # of iPhones sold. I'm trying to understand how the most expensive phone Apple has ever offered and is the best seller of all the bazillions of iphones sold could be considered a limited success.
    Did they report on an ASRP in the last earnings call?
    $796. $100 higher than the year ago quarter. 
    That could also mean very high sales of of iPhone 8 Plus, not just iPhone X.
    But last year there was a 7+. Maybe the bigger phone sold more this year than last, but I can't imagine it was enough to increase the ASP by a $100.
    Don't forget the 8 and 8 Plus carried a $50 increase over the previous iPhone 7 models so that would drive ASP up too.

    Analysts estimates were 20M - 25M iPhone X sold during the December quarter which makes up about a quarter of all phones sold.  The X sold pretty good, but I don't think it was anywhere near expectations at that rate.  The X was supposed to be extremely limited though at least March, yet supply/demand pretty much hit equilibrium by the first week of December.  Ming initially predicted first quarter sales of 40M+, dropped it to under 30M, and eventually said it would be around 20M.  The hyped "supercycle" of customers waiting for the X never materialized.
  • Reply 11 of 30
    SoliSoli Posts: 8,969member
    78Bandit said:
    mike1 said:
    Soli said:
    mike1 said:
    Rayz2016 said:
    The company has had "limited success" trying to pitch the iPhone X at $999
    Er … okay. 🙄
    That narrative is so stupid, it's almost comical. On the last earnings call, Tim said the X was the best selling phone that quarter and proceeded to give the total # of iPhones sold. I'm trying to understand how the most expensive phone Apple has ever offered and is the best seller of all the bazillions of iphones sold could be considered a limited success.
    Did they report on an ASRP in the last earnings call?
    $796. $100 higher than the year ago quarter. 
    That could also mean very high sales of of iPhone 8 Plus, not just iPhone X.
    But last year there was a 7+. Maybe the bigger phone sold more this year than last, but I can't imagine it was enough to increase the ASP by a $100.
    Don't forget the 8 and 8 Plus carried a $50 increase over the previous iPhone 7 models so that would drive ASP up too.
    It did? That’s news to me.
  • Reply 12 of 30
    mavemufcmavemufc Posts: 326member
    That can only be good news, love the X but definitely want it in a Plus size now and I'd be paying the same for this new model as I did for the current phone months ago.
  • Reply 13 of 30
    FolioFolio Posts: 567member

    Must be the season. Based on Asia trip and conversations with “several Asian suppliers,” BAML analyst Wamsi Mohan also predicts three phones. Here’s excerpt from p.1:


    More LCD iPhones in the mix after Asia trip

    We are updating our estimate for iPhones based on our conversations with several Asian suppliers. We expect three new models to be released in the fall including a new 6.5" OLED iPhone XS plus, an updated 5.8" OLED iPhone XS and a new 6.1" edge to edge LCD model. Given the weaker than expected uptake of the iPhone X, the supply chain remains cautious on the uptake of the new OLED models but expects the new edge to edge LCD to be a winner. We are increasing our mix of the LCD units higher and lower our mix of OLED iPhones (see Figure 1 for details). Given that a substantial amount of iPhone and other electronics manufacturing is done in China, we do not see this as a particular area of retaliation from a trade context. Our model, available to institutional investors, has our estimates for iPhone units by model. We reiterate our Buy rating on multi-year rev and gross profit dollar growth and strong capital return.

    Pricing to remain the largest wildcard

    At this point we are expecting the iPhone XS Plus to be priced $50 higher than the iPhone X, the iPhone XS to be priced around $50 lower than the iPhone X and for the iPhone X price to drop by $150 (with some possibility of discontinuation). We expect the new 6.1" LCD phone to be priced at $799, in-line with the iPhone 8+, which we view as an attractive price point for the largest LCD model in the iPhone lineup.

    Feature set largely same this fall but foldable in the works

    We expect the iPhones this fall to be largely unchanged for the OLED versions although size changes have proved to be a catalyst in the past. The larger OLED could drive some demand at the very high end. The new LCD iPhone is expected to have FaceID, no home button, no force touch and potentially a single rear camera. We are not expecting rear 3D sensing until 2019. Our checks also suggest that Apple is working with suppliers on a foldable phone (that potentially could double up as a tablet) for launch in 2020.

    Adjusting estimates, PO stays at $220

    Our revenues/EPS for F18E move to $262bn/$11.50 from prior $268bn/$11.78, respectively. Our PO stays at $220 on 16x our C19 EPS estimate of $13.32. 

  • Reply 14 of 30
    FolioFolio Posts: 567member
    Oops, sorry. Above BAML report was dated 23MAR2018 in case anyone cares.
  • Reply 15 of 30
    jcs2305jcs2305 Posts: 761member
    78Bandit said:
    mike1 said:
    Soli said:
    mike1 said:
    Rayz2016 said:
    The company has had "limited success" trying to pitch the iPhone X at $999
    Er … okay. 🙄
    That narrative is so stupid, it's almost comical. On the last earnings call, Tim said the X was the best selling phone that quarter and proceeded to give the total # of iPhones sold. I'm trying to understand how the most expensive phone Apple has ever offered and is the best seller of all the bazillions of iphones sold could be considered a limited success.
    Did they report on an ASRP in the last earnings call?
    $796. $100 higher than the year ago quarter. 
    That could also mean very high sales of of iPhone 8 Plus, not just iPhone X.
    But last year there was a 7+. Maybe the bigger phone sold more this year than last, but I can't imagine it was enough to increase the ASP by a $100.
    Don't forget the 8 and 8 Plus carried a $50 increase over the previous iPhone 7 models so that would drive ASP up too.

    Analysts estimates were 20M - 25M iPhone X sold during the December quarter which makes up about a quarter of all phones sold.  The X sold pretty good, but I don't think it was anywhere near expectations at that rate.  The X was supposed to be extremely limited though at least March, yet supply/demand pretty much hit equilibrium by the first week of December.  Ming initially predicted first quarter sales of 40M+, dropped it to under 30M, and eventually said it would be around 20M.  The hyped "supercycle" of customers waiting for the X never materialized.
    128gb iPhone 7Plus was $869.00. 64Gb 8Plus $799.00. I have the receipts upstairs.. 

    32gb iPhone 7Plus was $769.00 @ Launch.. Also the prices on the both 7 series went down last year, not up?




  • Reply 16 of 30
    StrangeDaysStrangeDays Posts: 7,974member
    Soli said:
    mike1 said:
    Rayz2016 said:
    The company has had "limited success" trying to pitch the iPhone X at $999
    Er … okay. 🙄
    That narrative is so stupid, it's almost comical. On the last earnings call, Tim said the X was the best selling phone that quarter and proceeded to give the total # of iPhones sold. I'm trying to understand how the most expensive phone Apple has ever offered and is the best seller of all the bazillions of iphones sold could be considered a limited success.
    Did they report on an ASRP in the last earnings call?
    $796. $100 higher than the year ago quarter. 
    That could also mean very high sales of of iPhone 8 Plus, not just iPhone X.
    Yeah except for the fact that Cook said it was the X that was the biggest seller since it came out. Why is this so hard for people to come to grips with??
  • Reply 17 of 30
    foggyhillfoggyhill Posts: 4,767member
    78Bandit said:
    mike1 said:
    Soli said:
    mike1 said:
    Rayz2016 said:
    The company has had "limited success" trying to pitch the iPhone X at $999
    Er … okay. 🙄
    That narrative is so stupid, it's almost comical. On the last earnings call, Tim said the X was the best selling phone that quarter and proceeded to give the total # of iPhones sold. I'm trying to understand how the most expensive phone Apple has ever offered and is the best seller of all the bazillions of iphones sold could be considered a limited success.
    Did they report on an ASRP in the last earnings call?
    $796. $100 higher than the year ago quarter. 
    That could also mean very high sales of of iPhone 8 Plus, not just iPhone X.
    But last year there was a 7+. Maybe the bigger phone sold more this year than last, but I can't imagine it was enough to increase the ASP by a $100.
    Don't forget the 8 and 8 Plus carried a $50 increase over the previous iPhone 7 models so that would drive ASP up too.

    Analysts estimates were 20M - 25M iPhone X sold during the December quarter which makes up about a quarter of all phones sold.  The X sold pretty good, but I don't think it was anywhere near expectations at that rate.  The X was supposed to be extremely limited though at least March, yet supply/demand pretty much hit equilibrium by the first week of December.  Ming initially predicted first quarter sales of 40M+, dropped it to under 30M, and eventually said it would be around 20M.  The hyped "supercycle" of customers waiting for the X never materialized.
    expected by whom? There are a lot of weasel words in your argument. Words that seem to mean something, but don't.

    The X was available for a very short period in december and was much more expensive and followed two other phones released at different price point.

    If you look at guidance, seems Apple got just about exactly what they were expecting.

  • Reply 18 of 30
    supadav03supadav03 Posts: 451member
    Well if true, I’d be happy. I’m definetly goimg with a Plus option if available so if I can purchase one for the same price I paid for this years X, I’m all in.
  • Reply 19 of 30
    canukstormcanukstorm Posts: 1,949member
    Soli said:
    mike1 said:
    Rayz2016 said:
    The company has had "limited success" trying to pitch the iPhone X at $999
    Er … okay. 🙄
    That narrative is so stupid, it's almost comical. On the last earnings call, Tim said the X was the best selling phone that quarter and proceeded to give the total # of iPhones sold. I'm trying to understand how the most expensive phone Apple has ever offered and is the best seller of all the bazillions of iphones sold could be considered a limited success.
    Did they report on an ASRP in the last earnings call?
    $796. $100 higher than the year ago quarter. 
    That could also mean very high sales of of iPhone 8 Plus, not just iPhone X.
    Yeah except for the fact that Cook said it was the X that was the biggest seller since it came out. Why is this so hard for people to come to grips with??
    What Tim Cook said was that the iPhone X was the best selling iPhone from the time it went on sale to the time of the Fiscal Year Q1 Conference Call.  The iPhone X was only available for sale for approximately five weeks for Fiscal Year Q1, not enough to have a huge effect on margins.  Why is that so hard for people to come to grips with.  Fiscal Year Q2 will be a much bigger indicator since the iPhone X has been on sale for the entire quarter.
  • Reply 20 of 30
    SoliSoli Posts: 8,969member
    Soli said:
    mike1 said:
    Rayz2016 said:
    The company has had "limited success" trying to pitch the iPhone X at $999
    Er … okay. ߙ䦬t;/div>
    That narrative is so stupid, it's almost comical. On the last earnings call, Tim said the X was the best selling phone that quarter and proceeded to give the total # of iPhones sold. I'm trying to understand how the most expensive phone Apple has ever offered and is the best seller of all the bazillions of iphones sold could be considered a limited success.
    Did they report on an ASRP in the last earnings call?
    $796. $100 higher than the year ago quarter. 
    That could also mean very high sales of of iPhone 8 Plus, not just iPhone X.
    Yeah except for the fact that Cook said it was the X that was the biggest seller since it came out. Why is this so hard for people to come to grips with??
    What Tim Cook said was that the iPhone X was the best selling iPhone from the time it went on sale to the time of the Fiscal Year Q1 Conference Call.  The iPhone X was only available for sale for approximately five weeks for Fiscal Year Q1, not enough to have a huge effect on margins.  Why is that so hard for people to come to grips with.  Fiscal Year Q2 will be a much bigger indicator since the iPhone X has been on sale for the entire quarter.
    How do you get 5 weeks? Not including pre-sales, the iPhone X hit the market on 03 Nov 2017. Their first fiscal quarter of 2018 ended on 30 Dec 2017. That's 58 days of sales. That means that it was 58 days of sales, which translates to over 8¼ weeks. The entire quarter was 91 days or 13 weeks, which means it was 64% of the quarter being counted, but since the event was back in 12 Sept 2017 many just waited to buy the iPhone X when it went on sale. I can assert that the iPhone 8 Plus being a less expensive device per GB over the iPhone 7 Plus is not a reason for a jump in $100 in ASRP.
    edited March 2018
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