iPhone X follow-up will start at $899 with 'plus' version hitting $999 says analyst
Apple could choose to make this year's 5.8-inch iPhone X successor $100 cheaper at $899, reserving the old pricetag for a new 6.5-inch device, according to one analyst.
The company has had "limited success" trying to pitch the iPhone X at $999, RBC Capital Markets analyst Amit Daryanani argued in an investor memo obtained by AppleInsider. Making its follow-up cheaper would lower Apple's average selling price but might compensate by increasing units sold, he said.
The memo agrees with rumors pointing to Apple shipping three new iPhones this year. The first two -- the 5.8- and 6.5-inch models -- should use OLED displays, but the third is expected to adopt a 6.1-inch LCD format.
Daryanani suggested that the LCD model will use aluminum edges, while the OLED ones will be equipped with "premium steel."
Critically, all three phones are likely to use Face ID -- something currently reserved for the X, and enabling smaller bezels by ditching the need for a home button, where Touch ID devices have their fingerprint sensor.
It isn't clear where Daryanani sourced the data about pricing, or if the estimates are an educated guess based on the history of Apple's prior pricing moves. Prior to the iPhone X release, analysts suspected that the iPhone X could start at $1200.
For years Apple's flagship iPhones started at $649, with marketing claiming $199 price points with carrier subsidies. While the iPhone X can be seen as a special case, even the iPhone 8 -- which has a 4.7-inch LCD, and lacks Face ID -- is priced at $699.
Apple is likely to announce its 2018 iPhone lineup in September, as usual. The company may start trial production as soon as next quarter, looking to avoid a repeat of the delays that forced the X to ship in November 2017. Reports have blamed that on the 3D-sensing TrueDepth camera, which is said to be difficult to make.
RBC is maintaining an "outperform" rating for Apple stock, including a $205 target.
The company has had "limited success" trying to pitch the iPhone X at $999, RBC Capital Markets analyst Amit Daryanani argued in an investor memo obtained by AppleInsider. Making its follow-up cheaper would lower Apple's average selling price but might compensate by increasing units sold, he said.
The memo agrees with rumors pointing to Apple shipping three new iPhones this year. The first two -- the 5.8- and 6.5-inch models -- should use OLED displays, but the third is expected to adopt a 6.1-inch LCD format.
Daryanani suggested that the LCD model will use aluminum edges, while the OLED ones will be equipped with "premium steel."
Critically, all three phones are likely to use Face ID -- something currently reserved for the X, and enabling smaller bezels by ditching the need for a home button, where Touch ID devices have their fingerprint sensor.
It isn't clear where Daryanani sourced the data about pricing, or if the estimates are an educated guess based on the history of Apple's prior pricing moves. Prior to the iPhone X release, analysts suspected that the iPhone X could start at $1200.
For years Apple's flagship iPhones started at $649, with marketing claiming $199 price points with carrier subsidies. While the iPhone X can be seen as a special case, even the iPhone 8 -- which has a 4.7-inch LCD, and lacks Face ID -- is priced at $699.
Apple is likely to announce its 2018 iPhone lineup in September, as usual. The company may start trial production as soon as next quarter, looking to avoid a repeat of the delays that forced the X to ship in November 2017. Reports have blamed that on the 3D-sensing TrueDepth camera, which is said to be difficult to make.
RBC is maintaining an "outperform" rating for Apple stock, including a $205 target.
Comments
iPhone X+: $999
iPhone X: $899
6.1" iPhone (9+ or Whatever): $799
iPhone 8+: $699
iPhone 8: $599
iPhone 7+: $469?
iPhone 7: $349?
iPhone 6s+
iPhone 6s
Apple probably kill the 6 and 7 series completely and I can see a possible SE2 at $399-$499 for replacement there.
Analysts estimates were 20M - 25M iPhone X sold during the December quarter which makes up about a quarter of all phones sold. The X sold pretty good, but I don't think it was anywhere near expectations at that rate. The X was supposed to be extremely limited though at least March, yet supply/demand pretty much hit equilibrium by the first week of December. Ming initially predicted first quarter sales of 40M+, dropped it to under 30M, and eventually said it would be around 20M. The hyped "supercycle" of customers waiting for the X never materialized.
Must be the season. Based on Asia trip and conversations with “several Asian suppliers,” BAML analyst Wamsi Mohan also predicts three phones. Here’s excerpt from p.1:
More LCD iPhones in the mix after Asia trip
We are updating our estimate for iPhones based on our conversations with several Asian suppliers. We expect three new models to be released in the fall including a new 6.5" OLED iPhone XS plus, an updated 5.8" OLED iPhone XS and a new 6.1" edge to edge LCD model. Given the weaker than expected uptake of the iPhone X, the supply chain remains cautious on the uptake of the new OLED models but expects the new edge to edge LCD to be a winner. We are increasing our mix of the LCD units higher and lower our mix of OLED iPhones (see Figure 1 for details). Given that a substantial amount of iPhone and other electronics manufacturing is done in China, we do not see this as a particular area of retaliation from a trade context. Our model, available to institutional investors, has our estimates for iPhone units by model. We reiterate our Buy rating on multi-year rev and gross profit dollar growth and strong capital return.
Pricing to remain the largest wildcard
At this point we are expecting the iPhone XS Plus to be priced $50 higher than the iPhone X, the iPhone XS to be priced around $50 lower than the iPhone X and for the iPhone X price to drop by $150 (with some possibility of discontinuation). We expect the new 6.1" LCD phone to be priced at $799, in-line with the iPhone 8+, which we view as an attractive price point for the largest LCD model in the iPhone lineup.
Feature set largely same this fall but foldable in the works
We expect the iPhones this fall to be largely unchanged for the OLED versions although size changes have proved to be a catalyst in the past. The larger OLED could drive some demand at the very high end. The new LCD iPhone is expected to have FaceID, no home button, no force touch and potentially a single rear camera. We are not expecting rear 3D sensing until 2019. Our checks also suggest that Apple is working with suppliers on a foldable phone (that potentially could double up as a tablet) for launch in 2020.
Adjusting estimates, PO stays at $220
Our revenues/EPS for F18E move to $262bn/$11.50 from prior $268bn/$11.78, respectively. Our PO stays at $220 on 16x our C19 EPS estimate of $13.32.
32gb iPhone 7Plus was $769.00 @ Launch.. Also the prices on the both 7 series went down last year, not up?