"From there Campling extrapolated that Apple isn't buying chips for future iPhone X production, and TSMC is burning off inventory, "because the iPhone X is dead." He blamed the situation on the $999-plus pricetag of the phone, suggesting that "consumers are turning their backs on high-priced smartphones."
Apple knows whether the iPhone X is selling as they expected or not, and they directly control the price. If it weren't selling, they could cut $$ off the price tomorrow.
This happens every quarter before earnings release. All kinds of doom and gloom research notes from sell side analysts. The stock tanks as all the nervous nellies panic and then someone swoops in to say its a buying opportunity. Wall Street is garbage,
I absolutely love my X, and find myself impatient when I have to work on earlier phones--even my iPad Pro annoys me at times when I can't use the same gestures. I got used to it so fast I couldn't believe it, and it's simply the best phone I've ever had. I keep wishing I hadn't bought an iPad Pro so I could get the 'X' version if it ever comes out, since I spent enough on the thing to ensure I won't be buying another iPad any time soon. iPad Pro is great, and I love it, but I would love it more if it was more like my X.
I was an Apple dealer back in the days when they decided to cut all our throats, and 3,000 of us went out of business (including me) within a year of that decision. The iPhone X ALMOST gets me to the point where I can forgive them. I've often said that if somebody ever comes out with a better OS I'd go to them in a heartbeat, but the X version of iOS is just the best (so far). I've got a long list of things that could improve MacOS, but so far no joy. I think there's still room for somebody to revolutionize the PC-based OS in general, but it doesn't look like anybody is even trying, so I'm stuck with MacOS for the present.
3) This isn't a 5pm speech at Golden Corral. We all know how to pronounce it, just like we know how to say OS X. Lesser known, but still pretty well known on Apple tech forums is that Apple's OSes already know to say it so you can type these into Terminal:
Perhaps all notch phones will be one-year models until the notch has gotten as small as it can get? It IS expensive though.. But wow I've seen the X in so many people's hands in the open, so I'm having a real hard time reading too much into this report.
But I fit into the description though. Too expensive for me to have a good enough reason to buy it. I'm also awaiting a next gen on board camera.
The increased ASP shows that consumer interest is high, but they could kill the iPhone X like they killed the original iPhone. In many ways this model is like the original iPhone so I wouldn’t be surprised if that happened, but I also see no evidence that it will be completely doscpntinued for a better and more cost effective design.
As an anniversary edition iPhone I sort of expected it to be a one off, special model, just like the 20th anniv. Macintosh and the 50th anniv. Marshall tube amp. The tech in the phone will end up in the regular lineup of course.
When introducing the iPhone X, Apple clearly did say this was where the future of iPhone is headed. I’m 100% convinced all future iPhones will go in this direction. Apple never looks back.
iPhoneX could well be dead. I have no issue with that although the phrase would be somewhat sensationalist.
Apple never said a third phone would be a permanent entry into the lineup and taking it as a celebratory, one off, phone would also make some sense.
So, iPhone X might be here to stay or it might not.
As for pricing, it is a complete non issue in the current scheme of things. You can price literally as high as you want provided you have something at affordable prices in your lineup.
If anyone thought the iPhone X had legs for strong sales during a full year, they were likely mistaken but if it is finding buyers, then mission accomplished.
It would be totally the opposite of they didn't have a nice spread of options at lower price points but that isn't the case. They basically have something for everyone (even if it means those people buying older technology - that is their decision).
Whether the X remains or is a one-off, is really moot.
Some of its technology will get moved into lower end phones and perhaps at lower pricing, too.
If sales are slowing across the board, that's another story but nothing to do with the X being dead or not.
There isn't a chance in hell that the iPhone X is dead, and it was never a "celebratory" model either. That is just FUD. Next generation X architecture is absolutely here to stay and will be updated in September.
The question is whether the current iPhone X stays in production as an entry model after the fall releases. I believe that it will not.
As I linked in an earlier post, the iPhone X has extremely high satisfaction rates;
"When it came to overall customer satisfaction, iPhone X owners in our study gave the product an overall 97% customer satisfaction. While that number is impressive, what really stands out when you do customer satisfaction studies is the percentage who say they are very satisfied with the product. Considering you add up the total number of very satisfied, and satisfied, to get your total customer satisfaction number a product can have a high number of satisfied responses and lower number of very satisfied responses and still achieve a high number. The higher the very satisfied responses, the better a product truly is. In our study, 85% of iPhone X owners said they were very satisfied with the product.
That number is amongst the highest I’ve seen in all the customer satisfaction studied we have conducted across a range of technology products. Just to contrast that with the original Apple Watch research with Wristly I was involved in, 66% of Apple Watch owners indicated they were very satisfied with Apple Watch, a product which also ranked a 97% customer satisfaction number in the first Apple Watch study we did."
More to the point, we will have a better idea on iPhone X sales May 1, when Apple delivers it's quarterly financial report.
If this is the question:
"The question is whether the current iPhone X stays in production as an entry model after the fall releases. I believe that it will not."
And the answer turns out to be that it doesn't stay in production, doesn't it effectively mean the phone is dead?
Totally sensationalist I agree but 'dead' nevertheless. It's not about the architecture. It's about the phone: iPhone X.
Do you think they will stick with three new variants (9, 9 Plus and X?) Or go back to just two (9, 9 Plus)?
Look at the second link which is a graph from the first;
What you notice is that more than 75% of Apple's sales are this year's models; 8, 8 plus, and X. Look for a high ASP to continue with the release of Q2 financials on May 1.
Assuming that Apple can cost reduce FaceID, all of the new fall releases will have that and the A12 at 7 nm. The only other variation will be ram, screen type (LED or OLED), screen size, and camera configuration. There also maybe updates to A/R. There isn't a reason or necessity to keep the current X in the line as it is the first X model in the class and Apple has gleaned enough data from sales to fine tune it. The reality is that an updated X will likely be near identical to the current X, but with the A12 for better battery life. I could be wrong about this, of course, but it really doesn't matter if all of the fall releases deliver FaceID. All of the legacy models, 8, 8 plus, 7, 7 Plus continue at slightly lower priced points than currently. The SE is expected to be an updated TouchID model, likely the last update of any TouchID model, so that only leaves a question about the iPhone 6s and 6s plus.
You seem to see the current X as a "celebratory" model; you have certainly reiterated that enough, but the actuality of it is that it is the first iPhone of its class. All other models are literally legacy ones as of this fall. Why would Apple not continue its push to FaceID to all users, given it's current near monopoly on that technology?
iPhoneX could well be dead. I have no issue with that although the phrase would be somewhat sensationalist.
Apple never said a third phone would be a permanent entry into the lineup and taking it as a celebratory, one off, phone would also make some sense.
So, iPhone X might be here to stay or it might not.
As for pricing, it is a complete non issue in the current scheme of things. You can price literally as high as you want provided you have something at affordable prices in your lineup.
If anyone thought the iPhone X had legs for strong sales during a full year, they were likely mistaken but if it is finding buyers, then mission accomplished.
It would be totally the opposite of they didn't have a nice spread of options at lower price points but that isn't the case. They basically have something for everyone (even if it means those people buying older technology - that is their decision).
Whether the X remains or is a one-off, is really moot.
Some of its technology will get moved into lower end phones and perhaps at lower pricing, too.
If sales are slowing across the board, that's another story but nothing to do with the X being dead or not.
There isn't a chance in hell that the iPhone X is dead, and it was never a "celebratory" model either. That is just FUD. Next generation X architecture is absolutely here to stay and will be updated in September.
The question is whether the current iPhone X stays in production as an entry model after the fall releases. I believe that it will not.
As I linked in an earlier post, the iPhone X has extremely high satisfaction rates;
"When it came to overall customer satisfaction, iPhone X owners in our study gave the product an overall 97% customer satisfaction. While that number is impressive, what really stands out when you do customer satisfaction studies is the percentage who say they are very satisfied with the product. Considering you add up the total number of very satisfied, and satisfied, to get your total customer satisfaction number a product can have a high number of satisfied responses and lower number of very satisfied responses and still achieve a high number. The higher the very satisfied responses, the better a product truly is. In our study, 85% of iPhone X owners said they were very satisfied with the product.
That number is amongst the highest I’ve seen in all the customer satisfaction studied we have conducted across a range of technology products. Just to contrast that with the original Apple Watch research with Wristly I was involved in, 66% of Apple Watch owners indicated they were very satisfied with Apple Watch, a product which also ranked a 97% customer satisfaction number in the first Apple Watch study we did."
More to the point, we will have a better idea on iPhone X sales May 1, when Apple delivers it's quarterly financial report.
If this is the question:
"The question is whether the current iPhone X stays in production as an entry model after the fall releases. I believe that it will not."
And the answer turns out to be that it doesn't stay in production, doesn't it effectively mean the phone is dead?
Totally sensationalist I agree but 'dead' nevertheless. It's not about the architecture. It's about the phone: iPhone X.
Do you think they will stick with three new variants (9, 9 Plus and X?) Or go back to just two (9, 9 Plus)?
Look at the second link which is a graph from the first;
What you notice is that more than 75% of Apple's sales are this year's models; 8, 8 plus, and X. Look for a high ASP to continue with the release of Q2 financials on May 1.
Assuming that Apple can cost reduce FaceID, all of the new fall releases will have that and the A12 at 7 nm. The only other variation will be ram, screen type (LED or OLED), screen size, and camera configuration. There also maybe updates to A/R. There isn't a reason or necessity to keep the current X in the line as it is the first X model in the class and Apple has gleaned enough data from sales to fine tune it. The reality is that an updated X will likely be near identical to the current X, but with the A12 for better battery life. I could be wrong about this, of course, but it really doesn't matter if all of the fall releases deliver FaceID. All of the legacy models, 8, 8 plus, 7, 7 Plus continue at slightly lower priced points than currently. The SE is expected to be an updated TouchID model, likely the last update of any TouchID model, so that only leaves a question about the iPhone 6s and 6s plus.
You seem to see the current X as a "celebratory" model; you have certainly reiterated that enough, but the actuality of it is that it is the first iPhone of its class. All other models are literally legacy ones as of this fall. Why would Apple not continue its push to FaceID to all users, given it's current near monopoly on that technology?
Why would Apple not continue its push to FaceID to all users, given it's current near monopoly on that technology?"
I can't think of any reasons except for cost but I haven't mentioned that they shouldn't do that in any case.
Just as has recently happened with 'profits' and the 'Play Store, subscriptions' etc and now your graphic, people are taking a snapshot of something, reading a lot into it and deliberately missing the rest - which just happens to be the most important part.
The year has four quarters in it. Apple usually releases new phone hardware in just one of those quarters which has an abormal impact on the year. There isn't really much point looking at that one quarter and reaching lasting conclusions. That quarter is a blip (a distortion) in the year and reporting on it as if it were some kind of continuing reality is in itself a distortion of the underlying situation. Some people here don't seem to grasp that. The year as a whole is what is really interesting. Cherry picking Apple's seasonal best quarter is only interesting within the context of the quarter itself.
We recently had a piece by DED on the Google Play Store, subscriptions etc but which didn't take the trouble to point out clearly that 1, the figures were estimates and 2, the figures were limited to the US market.
Your graph and comment also fail to mention what is clearly pointed out in the link:
"We profiled Wave7 Research’s latest survey on the US market, [which] implied a positive trend in the mix of iPhones to newer models, 2providing a positive indicator for Apple’s ASPs."
The US is not theworld.
One of Apple's major markets is the US but if you are presenting US specific data you should label it as such and interpret it in that context.
Apple will present numbers for its entire worldwide operations on May 1st, it won't be presenting solely US data.
I haven't actually predicted anything for this quarter beyond the obvious (it won't be as good as the Christmas quarter etc).
ASP does nothing for consumers. I have an interest in the products, not Apple's ASP.
Last year Apple celebrated the tenth anniversary of iPhone and released a third new phone aptly named iPhone X (10). It did not release an iPhone 9 series. In that context the iPhone X can clearly referred to as a celebratory or anniversary phone. If you don't see it that way, fine.
If we get an iPhone 9 and 9 Plus later this year but no iPhone X (independently of whether FaceID is on the 9 series), the iPhone X will be effectively dead. Nobody should have an issue with that possibility.
That doesn't mean I think it will happen. I have no idea. In fact, no one does.
We don't know what will happen with new products and we don't know what will happen politically:
May 1st will give us our first peek into what's happening in China and guidance might reflect some of the current uncertainty. One thing is for sure, turbulence in Apple's performance in China is far more likely to have an impact on its stock than supply channel reports.
I'm not in China though, so I can't gauge the reported anti-Apple sentiment there at the moment and any impact on sales. If we have any members in China, perhaps they can chime in.
I am not some techie. I am just an everyday, run of the mill, old woman, who liked Apple. I purchased the Iphone X in March. On March17th I sealed my fate and that of Apple. Of course they sent me a non working phone and now I play a circus of games between Verizon and Apple who just want to give me a used phone for a new price. Well how about that! They tell me, "The rebuilt is better, it has been gone through!" At this price, friend, I liken it to your car! The used car is better! It has been gone through! How about you keep paying the new car price and I will just give you this 'better' used one!
Apple will NOT fall due to tech failure. They will NOT fall due to phone upgrades. Apple will fall because little old ladies and all those who want to be like them, which are much of Apples consumers, are now leaving them. I will NEVER purchase another phone. No worries APPLE, your deals with LG and Samsung will be there too if I go to another phone right? Except they wont. They wont because you have ruined the cell phone experience for me with one phone. THE MOMENT my rebuilt for full price phone arrives (supposed to be tomorrow) I will be selling it off. I will take the $500 loss but rest assured I do not need a cell phone.
IN fact, the camera in this phone is so bad it is hardly the camera I purchased it to be. You said it was better...no the Iphone 6s plus had a better camera than this. This is garbage and most of all it is a problem. In my head, right now, when I think of Apple and Verizon (both of you) I see big words! They are like a meme in my head, forever burned to remind me: APPLE =PROBLEM APPLE=THEFT APPLE=LIES APPLE=STAY AWAY!
I am upgrading to a camera. Your doom date will be about the theft you have committed against your consumers and how you blatantly acted like that theft should be fine and nothing else. NOTHING ELSE> I have been online since the beginning of the internet. I am USED to failing tech. I am NOT used to theft. I wont tolerate it. I will be the leading example. I will celebrate the day you fall. You win this battle...but my friend...this is a war.
Comments
Apple knows whether the iPhone X is selling as they expected or not, and they directly control the price. If it weren't selling, they could cut $$ off the price tomorrow.
It IS expensive though.. But wow I've seen the X in so many people's hands in the open, so I'm having a real hard time reading too much into this report.
But I fit into the description though. Too expensive for me to have a good enough reason to buy it. I'm also awaiting a next gen on board camera.
When introducing the iPhone X, Apple clearly did say this was where the future of iPhone is headed. I’m 100% convinced all future iPhones will go in this direction. Apple never looks back.
https://www.ped30.com/2018/04/20/apple-handwringing-june/
https://i2.wp.com/www.ped30.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Screen-Shot-2018-04-20-at-4.50.16-PM.png?ssl=1
What you notice is that more than 75% of Apple's sales are this year's models; 8, 8 plus, and X. Look for a high ASP to continue with the release of Q2 financials on May 1.
Assuming that Apple can cost reduce FaceID, all of the new fall releases will have that and the A12 at 7 nm. The only other variation will be ram, screen type (LED or OLED), screen size, and camera configuration. There also maybe updates to A/R. There isn't a reason or necessity to keep the current X in the line as it is the first X model in the class and Apple has gleaned enough data from sales to fine tune it. The reality is that an updated X will likely be near identical to the current X, but with the A12 for better battery life. I could be wrong about this, of course, but it really doesn't matter if all of the fall releases deliver FaceID. All of the legacy models, 8, 8 plus, 7, 7 Plus continue at slightly lower priced points than currently. The SE is expected to be an updated TouchID model, likely the last update of any TouchID model, so that only leaves a question about the iPhone 6s and 6s plus.
You seem to see the current X as a "celebratory" model; you have certainly reiterated that enough, but the actuality of it is that it is the first iPhone of its class. All other models are literally legacy ones as of this fall. Why would Apple not continue its push to FaceID to all users, given it's current near monopoly on that technology?
I can't think of any reasons except for cost but I haven't mentioned that they shouldn't do that in any case.
Just as has recently happened with 'profits' and the 'Play Store, subscriptions' etc and now your graphic, people are taking a snapshot of something, reading a lot into it and deliberately missing the rest - which just happens to be the most important part.
The year has four quarters in it. Apple usually releases new phone hardware in just one of those quarters which has an abormal impact on the year. There isn't really much point looking at that one quarter and reaching lasting conclusions. That quarter is a blip (a distortion) in the year and reporting on it as if it were some kind of continuing reality is in itself a distortion of the underlying situation. Some people here don't seem to grasp that. The year as a whole is what is really interesting. Cherry picking Apple's seasonal best quarter is only interesting within the context of the quarter itself.
We recently had a piece by DED on the Google Play Store, subscriptions etc but which didn't take the trouble to point out clearly that 1, the figures were estimates and 2, the figures were limited to the US market.
Your graph and comment also fail to mention what is clearly pointed out in the link:
"We profiled Wave7 Research’s latest survey on the US market, [which] implied a positive trend in the mix of iPhones to newer models, 2providing a positive indicator for Apple’s ASPs."
The US is not the world.
One of Apple's major markets is the US but if you are presenting US specific data you should label it as such and interpret it in that context.
Apple will present numbers for its entire worldwide operations on May 1st, it won't be presenting solely US data.
I haven't actually predicted anything for this quarter beyond the obvious (it won't be as good as the Christmas quarter etc).
ASP does nothing for consumers. I have an interest in the products, not Apple's ASP.
Last year Apple celebrated the tenth anniversary of iPhone and released a third new phone aptly named iPhone X (10). It did not release an iPhone 9 series. In that context the iPhone X can clearly referred to as a celebratory or anniversary phone. If you don't see it that way, fine.
If we get an iPhone 9 and 9 Plus later this year but no iPhone X (independently of whether FaceID is on the 9 series), the iPhone X will be effectively dead. Nobody should have an issue with that possibility.
That doesn't mean I think it will happen. I have no idea. In fact, no one does.
We don't know what will happen with new products and we don't know what will happen politically:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeanbaptiste/2018/04/18/study-what-if-china-bans-apple-to-retaliate-for-u-s-sanctions-against-huawei-zte/
May 1st will give us our first peek into what's happening in China and guidance might reflect some of the current uncertainty. One thing is for sure, turbulence in Apple's performance in China is far more likely to have an impact on its stock than supply channel reports.
I'm not in China though, so I can't gauge the reported anti-Apple sentiment there at the moment and any impact on sales. If we have any members in China, perhaps they can chime in.
Apple will NOT fall due to tech failure. They will NOT fall due to phone upgrades. Apple will fall because little old ladies and all those who want to be like them, which are much of Apples consumers, are now leaving them. I will NEVER purchase another phone. No worries APPLE, your deals with LG and Samsung will be there too if I go to another phone right? Except they wont. They wont because you have ruined the cell phone experience for me with one phone.
IN fact, the camera in this phone is so bad it is hardly the camera I purchased it to be. You said it was better...no the Iphone 6s plus had a better camera than this. This is garbage and most of all it is a problem. In my head, right now, when I think of Apple and Verizon (both of you) I see big words! They are like a meme in my head, forever burned to remind me: APPLE =PROBLEM APPLE=THEFT APPLE=LIES APPLE=STAY AWAY!
I am upgrading to a camera.