About a third of iPhone owners plan to switch to something other than an iPhone, but only a fifth of Android phone owners plan to switch to an iPhone
Fixed the headline based on the third paragraph.
That isn't what the (survey) data indicates or what the third paragraph of the OP means.
70% (of iPhone owners) planning to buy an iPhone next time doesn't mean 30% are planning to buy something different. 10% indicated they don't know yet, a portion similar to the portion of Android owners who indicated the same.
So it's 20% or so of iPhone owners planning to buy a non-iPhone next time and 20% or so of Android owners planning to by a non-Android next time. Or...
70% or so of iPhone owners planning to buy an iPhone next time and 70% or so of Android owners planning to by an Android next time.
This means, as long as Apple has <40% of overall marketshare, these are winning numbers for Apple. At 41% or more, it's losing.
So the big question now is, in which country(ies) was that survey taken? In the US/Canada/Japan it would spell disaster. Most other places it would be a big win.
The survey says 10% of iPhone users don’t know. Only 20% said they were leaving.
Good point, and that does change the numbers, but not all that much, as android users have a similar "don't know" contingent. The point remains that the numbers in ths story are meaningless unless you know the market share of ios vs. android where the survey was taken. Preferably, broken down by country.
It changes your market share hinge point, for what it's worth, to about 50%.
But, yes, even if we assumed those conversion rates would turn out to be accurate, what they would mean in terms of the number of switchers in each direction would depend on what market (or markets) the survey looked at.
CIRP today came out with their latest "stickiness" numbers as they do every quarter. They show Android users are even more likely to remain with Android than iOS users committed to the iPhone as they have been for several years, but the differences are currently relatively minor: 92% loyalty for Android vs, 89% for iOS. So why the discrepancy between the chart from Horace promoted in the AI article and CIRP? Surveys are based on what customers plan to do, whereas this CIRP data is based on what customers have actually done.
CIRP today came out with their latest "stickiness" numbers as they do every quarter. They show Android users are even more likely to remain with Android than iOS users committed to the iPhone as they have been for several years, but the differences are currently relatively minor: 92% loyalty for Android vs, 89% for iOS. So why the discrepancy between the chart from Horace promoted in the AI article and CIRP? Surveys are based on what customers plan to do, whereas this CIRP data is based on what customers have actually done.
Again, in terms of the actual numbers, it depends on marketshare and/or particular country. Globally, a 1% lost of Android users to iOS is a lot more gain to Apple than the gain of Android from a 1% lost of iOS users to Android.
Comments
70% (of iPhone owners) planning to buy an iPhone next time doesn't mean 30% are planning to buy something different. 10% indicated they don't know yet, a portion similar to the portion of Android owners who indicated the same.
So it's 20% or so of iPhone owners planning to buy a non-iPhone next time and 20% or so of Android owners planning to by a non-Android next time. Or...
70% or so of iPhone owners planning to buy an iPhone next time and 70% or so of Android owners planning to by an Android next time.
It changes your market share hinge point, for what it's worth, to about 50%.
But, yes, even if we assumed those conversion rates would turn out to be accurate, what they would mean in terms of the number of switchers in each direction would depend on what market (or markets) the survey looked at.