iPhone XR will propel not just holiday iPhone sales, but drive early 2019 to new heights

Posted:
in iPhone edited October 2018
A new research note penned by Ming-Chi Kuo predicts that demand for Apple's iPhone XR will be better than expected, with Apple cranking out about 38 million of them in time for holiday sales.




In a note seen by AppleInsider TF Securities' Kuo believes that the iPhone XR will outsell the iPhone 8, in part because of the large edge-to-edge display, longer battery life, dual-SIM support, and a new form-factor. All of the manufacturing issues that were said to be early problems are reportedly solved, with panel assembly with significantly improved yields of Liquid Retina screen already headed to manufacturers.

Kuo believes that Apple will sell up to 83 million iPhones in total in the company's first fiscal quarter, which ends on December 31. This is an improvement from Kuo's previous prediction of up to 80 million, which was on the table prior to Monday's note.

Additionally, the model is expected to defeat a "low seasonality" after the holiday quarter. Instead of a near-50 percent drop that the iPhone 8 saw after the holiday, the iPhone XR is expected to only drop 30 percent, a favorable comparison to the overall industry's about 40 percent drop.

As a result of this, Kuo expects that Apple's second fiscal quarter of 2018 will hit about 60 million iPhone units sold. The iPhone XR is expected to have about 50 percent of that total, with the iPhone XS tapping 35 percent. Legacy models, including the iPhone 7 and iPhone 8 will tap the remainder.

Earlier on Monday, Kuo also noted that the 2019 iPhone lineup will see the same level of waterproofing that the iPhone XS family has.

A cheaper alternative to the iPhone XS and XS Max, the iPhone XR has a 6.1-inch LCD Liquid Retina display instead of an OLED panel used by its stablemates, has a single 12-megapixel wide-angle camera on the rear, and a wide array of bright color options. Preorders begin on October 19, with the first units arriving on October 26.
albegarc

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 12
    coolfactorcoolfactor Posts: 1,504member
    The XR was a brilliant move. I just wish it was a bit less expensive.
    albegarcchristopher126watto_cobraclaire1
  • Reply 2 of 12
    JWSCJWSC Posts: 490member
    The XR was a brilliant move. I just wish it was a bit less expensive.
    It captures the sweet spot on Phil’s price/elasticity curve.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 3 of 12
    designrdesignr Posts: 524member
    The XR was a brilliant move. I just wish it was a bit less expensive.
    Agreed on both counts.

    Brilliant in a couple of ways:

    1. The LCD is a bet-hedge move against OLED and keeps costs on this model down. I suspect the engineers are already working on shrinking those bezels.
    2. This will be the new entry product (and is for the X form factor) as they ride the cost curve down. Currently the 7 and 8 fill that gap but probably only until this time next year.

    It's not hard to imagine a smaller version of the Xr (perhaps standard 7/8 size) that comes in cheaper next year...and this one drop in price also. So now they cover the 7-8-Xr price range with all X-form-factor phones. Could be they could have done that this year but a) wanted to project this larger Xr sales, and b) their LCD manufacturers may be limited on this new LCD display but next year will be able to blow the doors off.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 4 of 12
    wood1208wood1208 Posts: 1,988member
    I believe it but tell Goldman Sachs who raised concern about slowing China iPhone sales.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 5 of 12
    Stupid article.

    "Instead of a near-50 percent drop that the iPhone 8 saw after the holiday, the iPhone XR is expected to only drop 30 percent"

    The five-year average decline in total iPhone units sold from the December quarter to the March quarter is ~26%.

    Kuo is cherry picking data.  iPhone 8 unit sales weren't the driver of total iPhone sales last year despite having four models available three of three months vs the iPhone X having two models available for two of three months.  iPhone Xs of all variations (total 9)
     with its much higher ASP will drive total iPhone units sold, and total revenue to record levels (>85 million units, >$75 million).

    March quarter units sold will decline about 25% from December quarter levels, while revenue will decline about 35%.  These levels are well within historic seasonality trends and nothing to get in a twist about.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 6 of 12

    This is yet another attempt at manipulating the Apple stock price, this time in the positive direction, for a change.


    If Apple sells 83 million iPhones in holiday quarter, they would be making close to $100 billion in revenue in the holiday quarter. That would be an unique unparalleled record on its own. If there is one company which can pull off $100 billion revenue in one quarter, it is Apple. Better to wait for Apple's guidance for holiday quarter, on Nov 01.

    watto_cobra
  • Reply 7 of 12
    analogjackanalogjack Posts: 1,069member
    The XR was a brilliant move. I just wish it was a bit less expensive.
    It's simply a genius move. Apple drags everyone into the over 1000 price range, then they pull  the rug from under them


    .
    edited October 2018 claire1
  • Reply 8 of 12
    I have a feeling The iPhone XR will outsell the Nokia 1100(250M) and become the best selling phone in history. It will outsell the iPhone 6(230M+) .
    watto_cobraclaire1
  • Reply 9 of 12
    I am looking forward to checking it out in the store soon.

    I have an iPhone 6 and am have been happy with it although have had recent battery and GPS sensor issues.

    My wife has an iPhone 7 Plus and I think that it feels too big to me.  I like something that can easily go in my pocket.

    From the spec sheet, the size seems like it's between the two, so I am interested to see if the Xr feels too big or seems ok.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 10 of 12
    gordygordy Posts: 972member
    Is it now safe to say that the iPhone Xr is not "low resolution" and that human retinas haven't changed in the past year?  Therefore, any mobile device resolution beyond 326ppi is generally gratuitous?
    watto_cobraclaire1
  • Reply 11 of 12
    claire1claire1 Posts: 510unconfirmed, member
    gordy said:
    Is it now safe to say that the iPhone Xr is not "low resolution" and that human retinas haven't changed in the past year?  Therefore, any mobile device resolution beyond 326ppi is generally gratuitous?
    The android dummies claim they have superior vision so....
  • Reply 12 of 12
    claire1claire1 Posts: 510unconfirmed, member

    The XR was a brilliant move. I just wish it was a bit less expensive.
    Hate to beat the dead horse but... wish it was SE sized. would have drove the price down further and possibly sold more.

    Having a larger screen than XS is just weird. If I were a casual consumer, I would think the XS was a ripoff and buy the XR based on screen size only. Very weird and first time Apple makes a larger screen cheaper.
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