Short lines aren't predictive of the iPhone XR's long-term prospects, analyst clarifies

Posted:
in iPhone
Small or non-existent waiting lines for the iPhone XR at Apple stores don't mean the product isn't selling well, Gene Munster observed on Friday, tackling the issue of launch demand for the second time in a week.

Image Credit: Lexy Savvides on Twitter
Image Credit: Lexy Savvides on Twitter


"Our typical launch day line counts reveal much shorter lines for iPhone XR," said Loup Ventures' Gene Munster. The claim backs up anecdotal evidence on Twitter and elsewhere, noting that even at Apple Union Square in San Francisco, launch day foot traffic was underwhelming.

Very short line to buy the #iPhoneXR in San Francisco this morning. So quiet compared to #iPhoneXS lines pic.twitter.com/m45nzP17v7

-- Lexy Savvides (@lexysavvides)


Munster pointed out that early adopters willing to wait in line most likely bought the iPhone XS in September, and that short online delivery times don't give people much reason to go to a store. U.S. delays for the XR are currently averaging under two weeks.

The XR will ultimately triumph as the most popular iPhone in 2019 because of its value, the analyst argued.

"Apple's most loyal user base will buy the newest, largest, most expensive models without even seeing the devices," he said. "The average consumer will make a more rational buying decision, which is where the iPhone XR wins." The phone starts at $749, $250 less than an XS, but still has many of the same features such as an A12 chip, an edge-to-edge display, and Face ID.

Loup Ventures is calling for the XR to represent 38 percent of iPhone sales in the coming year, versus just 9 percent for the XS and 12 percent for the XS Max.

Munster's position echoes that of TF Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, who also contended that many of the people buying the XR may be doing so through carriers rather than Apple, especially since they can sometimes get perks that way.

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 9
    I was near an apple store in Durham NC this morning and popped in - it looked fairly busy at first blush, especially for morning time but there were at least as many sales people as customers. Ended up picking up a pair of AirPods (love them) - going to hold off and maybe get an iPhone Xs max used later this year. It's certainly no iPhone launch of yester-year here but then again a new smartphone just isn't what it used to be. 
  • Reply 2 of 9
    The idea of lines having any predictive value became silly once reliable and easy pre-ordering became possible. It's like trying to figure out the popularity of a book by lines at bookstores. That said, I am intrigued by the multiple observations that the XR is a great deal relative to the XS because it is nearly the same at a much lower price. I'm not disagreeing (the XR is very similar and is attractively priced), I'm noting that, other than the no-bezel screen, the 8 was similar to the X. So this is not the first time Apple has released the same chip in two different phones with starkly different price points.
    chasmbonobob
  • Reply 3 of 9
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 7,438member
    The idea of lines having any predictive value became silly once reliable and easy pre-ordering became possible. It's like trying to figure out the popularity of a book by lines at bookstores. That said, I am intrigued by the multiple observations that the XR is a great deal relative to the XS because it is nearly the same at a much lower price. I'm not disagreeing (the XR is very similar and is attractively priced), I'm noting that, other than the no-bezel screen, the 8 was similar to the X. So this is not the first time Apple has released the same chip in two different phones with starkly different price points.
    But have you also noticed that the lines are quickly being used to proclaim Apple’s failure? A lot of tech blogs are plastering this all over their headlines. It feeds right into the overpriced narrative even though the original iPhone X became Apple’s best selling product in spite of the price tag. Apple’s ASP metric has become the new ‘-gate’ scandal, the new Judas goat, the whipping boy, the go-to bitch point. 
  • Reply 4 of 9
    Those guesstimate percentages seem strange to me? (A typo?)
    XR 38%
    XS 9%
    XS Max 12%

    I know there are other iPhones in the mix but are they really going to make up 41% of iPhones sold ??
    chasm
  • Reply 5 of 9
    chasmchasm Posts: 1,697member
    Gene Muster last week: short/no lineups for XR must mean the iPhone XR is uninspiring and unpopular; possibly a flop.

    Gene Munster this week, after getting tarred and feathered online by smarter people: Of course shorter lines don’t mean anything related to the iPhone XR’s success, in face we predict it will be the best-selling single model of them all!

    I really can’t imagine why analysts have such a bad reputation ... 🙄
  • Reply 6 of 9
    Got my XR bogo delivery this morning and I have to say I’m pleased so far little adjustments for lack of 3D Touch but not bad. Like the screen size way better than the slightly smaller iPhone X I had before and product Red is my thing I’ve learned. 
  • Reply 7 of 9
    TomETomE Posts: 149member
    No reason to stand in line for an iPhone now.  They are not available on announcements day and you can preorder and avoid the all day lines.  I don't know anyone who will die if they don't get a phone, computer or tablet on a certain day.  I guess I am too old to wait in lines and go to the store.  If I can get someone to bring it to me , I do it.

    The Analysts are off base in most of their projections.  They don't have much to do and make it up.
  • Reply 8 of 9

    Well, Well, If it isn't Gene Munster making predictions again.

    No way of knowing at this stage of the game. Gene Munster how did you derive at your numbers??? or are you merely echoing Ming Chi Kuo

    edited October 2018
  • Reply 9 of 9
    Saw the XR at store Saturday. A quick flip of websites showed the screen looked better than my 7 and as good as any screen I’ve seen.
Sign In or Register to comment.