Apple stock hammered on lower forecasts from iPhone part suppliers Lumentum & Japan Displa...

AppleInsider · November 12, 2018 5:12PM

Two important Apple suppliers -- Japan Display and TrueDepth sensor provider Lumentum -- have cut their revenue forecasts, causing Apple's stock price to dip to its lowest value in over three months.

As of this writing Apple stock was down over 4 percent in Monday trading to around $195. The company hasn't seen its stock below $200 since late July.

Lumentum has lowered a net revenue forecast from $405-430 million to $335-355 million, with earnings per share sliding from $1.60-1.75 to $1.15-1.34. Three analysts cited by Reuters suggested that this points to a reduction of 18 million to 20 million iPhones. Alternately Apple may simply have stockpiled too much inventory from Lumentum, though that would still indicate soft iPhone sales.

Neither Lumentum nor Japan Display have specifically identified Apple as the cause of their problems, but the former attributed them to a customer that's "one of our largest" and buying "laser diodes for 3D sensing." Apple is believed to represent about 30 percent of Lumentum's business.

Japan Display simply mentioned lower demand from smartphone makers.

The nexus of worries about iPhone sales has been the iPhone XR. The device has sometimes been predicted to be the most popular iPhone model in the coming year, owing to its $749 entry price while sharing many features of the iPhone XS. Recently though there have been doubts about how well the phone will do, the latest from TF Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, who on Monday slashed his 2019 unit estimates 30 percent to 70 million.

maestro64 · November 12, 2018 5:16PM

Make no sense, if Lunentum is cutting their numbers, that means that apple is far worse shape, since they have 3 phones and 2 ipads using their products so all those product demands will be done in an holiday season. Does anyone believe this.

MacPro · November 12, 2018 5:20PM

Apple stock news always makes me think of Don Henley's song Dirty Laundry ... "Hit them when their up, hit them when their down ..."

SpamSandwich · November 12, 2018 5:20PM

Saw AAPL this morning and then looked at my portfolio drop and my eyes just about fell out of my head. Ugh.

fred stein · November 12, 2018 5:20PM

What is the worry about iPhone XR sales? The XS and XS Max were smash hits and will continue to sell well for holiday giving. The XR, which is a great phone and a great value, does not offer telephoto. If you love iPhones (don't we all) there are many other options, new and used iPhones and older new models that offer telephoto. Just my opinion, why buy a high-end iPhone without telephoto?

Meanwhile Services and Apple Watch continue to bolster the fiscal results.

tzeshan · November 12, 2018 5:26PM

maestro64 said:

Make no sense, if Lunentum is cutting their numbers, that means that apple is far worse shape, since they have 3 phones and 2 ipads using their products so all those product demands will be done in an holiday season. Does anyone believe this.

Lunentum cuts their forecast which is future iPhone, iPad manufacturing. Not the holiday season.

retrogusto · November 12, 2018 5:52PM

It could also mean that Apple has multiple suppliers for their components, and some will inevitably be more competitive than others.

NY1822 · November 12, 2018 6:30PM

so all other brands could not possibly be the cause...has to be Apple? Why not the hot selling Galaxy Line? We've heard this narrative before and proven correct during earnings.

brucemc · November 12, 2018 6:30PM

A good buying opportunity for those that wanted to get in before the stock ramp in Q3. Even if there is some weakness in iPhone shipments, there is more optimism in the market now than last year in terms of wearables (the next big h/w item in CE), and services. Apple throwing off ~$50B USD in free cash each year, much of that going to stock buy backs which increases earnings/share. Plus they have the investment freedom to buy what they need, and consider which are the most profitable avenues to take.

landcruiser · November 12, 2018 7:14PM

More stock price manipulation by Wall Street crooks. The SEC has become irrelevant.

dedgecko · November 12, 2018 7:32PM

retrogusto said:

It could also mean that Apple has multiple suppliers for their components, and some will inevitably be more competitive than others.

Finisar, now II-VI, also makes the VCELs, and their new factory that Apple bought last year for almost 400 million is up and running now, possibly better than previously believed.

I wonder if II-VI gave some assurances to Apple as conditions for them buying out Finisar.

slurpy · November 12, 2018 7:39PM

Glad to see we've learned fucking nothing about previous "doomsday" supplier reports translating to absolutely nothing in terms of Apple's performance and numbers. Wasn't iPhone demand supposed to be "weak" based on supplier bullshit at every launch for the past several generations? And didn't iPhone smash records each and every single one of these times? Hasn't Tim Cook articulated the stupidity of looking deeply into supplier projections, again and again? Fucking investors and analysts never learn. Same horse-shit, month after month.

maestro64 · November 12, 2018 7:39PM

tzeshan said:

maestro64 said:

Make no sense, if Lunentum is cutting their numbers, that means that apple is far worse shape, since they have 3 phones and 2 ipads using their products so all those product demands will be done in an holiday season. Does anyone believe this.

Lunentum cuts their forecast which is future iPhone, iPad manufacturing. Not the holiday season.

Future is for this coming quarter, they would not be talking about Q1 at this point, or next year. Apple would not be providing purchase guidance that far in the future. I think this is more about their other customers at this point than it is about Apple, with 5 product driving demand for the 3D sensors it has to be higher volume than just one product last year. Apple could be shifting business to other suppliers like Finisar.

Apple also would not what Q1 or next year is looking like based on 1 month and 1/2 of sales. This is all FUD and the analysis are just taking advantage of the FUD, which is nothing new.

Kuyangkoh · November 12, 2018 7:57PM

landcruiser said:

More stock price manipulation by Wall Street crooks. The SEC has become irrelevant.

Yeah really SEC are you part of this making money w/o doing anything by this manipulative Wall Street con artists??

SpamSandwich · November 12, 2018 9:02PM

landcruiser said:

More stock price manipulation by Wall Street crooks. The SEC has become irrelevant.

There's some of that, but Apple dropping reporting unit sales of iPhones also has a lot to do with this. It was a bomb they dropped at the end of their call and traders hate surprises.

NY1822 · November 12, 2018 9:38PM

Today was the first day you can sell the stock and collect the dividend payment...ex dividend date was last Friday, 11/08.

hailthehamster · November 12, 2018 10:30PM

Hey can someone correct me as to whether or not I’m recalling this correctly. I remember a rather funny DED article about the 5C. Apple was decried as a failure because they sold far more of the premium top of the line device at the time, instead of the 5C being the best seller.
The “analysts” had a field day. If I’m not right, the deja vu I’m experiencing right now might suggest another Apple supply chain check migraine coming on.

radarthekat · November 12, 2018 11:15PM

fred stein said:

What is the worry about iPhone XR sales? The XS and XS Max were smash hits and will continue to sell well for holiday giving. The XR, which is a great phone and a great value, does not offer telephoto. If you love iPhones (don't we all) there are many other options, new and used iPhones and older new models that offer telephoto. Just my opinion, why buy a high-end iPhone without telephoto?

Meanwhile Services and Apple Watch continue to bolster the fiscal results.

Correct on all points. Staying with TouchID is less of a resistance point for many versus giving up the telephoto lens and the extra portrait mode capabilities it provides. So I expect anyone with a 7+ or 8+ would not consider the Xr. I’ve got the 8+ and I’d only go to the XS Max. That’s likely true for 7+ owners as well. iPhone users are iPhone users because they want the best. Last year that made the X the best seller all year. This year it points to the XS and XS Max, which one depends on size preference more that price difference. The popularity, and price, of those two phones, along with new iPads, new Macs, wearables and services growth will keep revenues and profits growing for the foreseeable future. The rest is noise.

radarthekat · November 12, 2018 11:20PM

slurpy said:

Glad to see we've learned fucking nothing about previous "doomsday" supplier reports translating to absolutely nothing in terms of Apple's performance and numbers. Wasn't iPhone demand supposed to be "weak" based on supplier bullshit at every launch for the past several generations? And didn't iPhone smash records each and every single one of these times? Hasn't Tim Cook articulated the stupidity of looking deeply into supplier projections, again and again? Fucking investors and analysts never learn. Same horse-shit, month after month.

We’ve learned to buy the stock.

MacPro · November 13, 2018 2:54AM

SpamSandwich said:

landcruiser said:

More stock price manipulation by Wall Street crooks. The SEC has become irrelevant.

There's some of that, but Apple dropping reporting unit sales of iPhones also has a lot to do with this. It was a bomb they dropped at the end of their call and traders hate surprises.

So, do all Apple competitors break down their sales that finely?

SpamSandwich · November 13, 2018 3:21AM

MacPro said:

SpamSandwich said:

landcruiser said:

More stock price manipulation by Wall Street crooks. The SEC has become irrelevant.

There's some of that, but Apple dropping reporting unit sales of iPhones also has a lot to do with this. It was a bomb they dropped at the end of their call and traders hate surprises.

So, do all Apple competitors break down their sales that finely?

Doesn’t matter. It was a sudden change in reporting. Why give these dirtbags additional ammo to attack the stock when they could’ve been eased into it instead?

Apple stock hammered on lower forecasts from iPhone part suppliers Lumentum & Japan Displa...

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