When you sell a product that your customers expect to last 4 years or more you better be sure that the technology you put inside is the right stuff. Apple will not be late to the game, they will just make sure they have the rights pieces to play the game to win.
What's funny is people are claiming Apple is making iPhones obsolete by not adding 5G right away. The theory is that when 5G comes out all existing iPhones will somehow no longer function properly and will become useless since they don't support the future 5G standard. It's almost as if they think 4G/LTE will get switched off the day 5G comes out.
I would count that as a mistake on Apple's part. And a failure on Intel's part.
Multiple vendors are rolling out 5G and, it appears that, the U.S. may be falling behind China.
But, most importantly, the stories are presented that "It will be delayed a year". But, since most people keep their phones for 2-4 years, the impact on MOST iPhone customers will be far more than waiting "a year".
And that multi-year delay may have significant ramifications: We have seen that progress in communications technologies -- from T1 & copper dial-up lines to cable/WiFi to wireless to LTE -- have had some of the greatest impact on computing of any other factor. And, 5G has a potential to be one of biggest advances in that long history.
Is there any reason for this delay other than the U.S. - China security feud (thus blocking Chinese vendors) or the Apple-Qualcomm feud or Intel's incompetence? In other words, is there any valid (technical) reason for the delay? If the technology is there, why would Apple wait?
I for one would not want to spend a grand on a phone that is soon to be obsolete.
1) There won't be a wide US rollout in 2020, or even 2021. Most major metros won't even see any 5G until 2021, much less the rest of the country. 2) There are still 5G "standards" to shake out, as well as implementation details, because once again, we've got battling ideas from the carriers on what is best.
Mike is spot on with his assessment. Another 5G rollout concern that is starting to pop up in some areas, like where I live, is active push back from local authorities concerning the 5G antennas themselves. I have not seen any 5G antennas but the city councils in a couple of the local communities who actually care about maintaining the aesthetic appeal of their communities are already trying to put the brakes on some of the early 5G adoptions because of the antennas. I'm sure it will be worked out, but there's more to making infrastructure changes than the technology and standards, especially when it's going to be be putting more technocrap in everyone's face.
The whole cell tower thing is baffling for its ponderous lack of imagination on both sides of the telco/nimby debate.
In an effort to hide cell towers or make them blend in with the landscape the telcos have created cell towers that look like a pine tree, a palm tree, a saguaro cactus, and all sorts of other goofy stuff. They uniformly look stupid and little like what they pretend to be. What a bunch of dingbats! Who thought that was a good idea?
Get a frikin’ industrial designer on the job and you could end up with a modern work of art. Or are the telcos too afraid to try anything daring? The Eiffel Tower was initially mocked when it was built but it’s true-to-the-times industrial architecture has withstood the test of time. Stop trying to hide the damn things! Put some effort into them and make them both functional and beautiful!
I would count that as a mistake on Apple's part. And a failure on Intel's part.
Multiple vendors are rolling out 5G and, it appears that, the U.S. may be falling behind China.
But, most importantly, the stories are presented that "It will be delayed a year". But, since most people keep their phones for 2-4 years, the impact on MOST iPhone customers will be far more than waiting "a year".
And that multi-year delay may have significant ramifications: We have seen that progress in communications technologies -- from T1 & copper dial-up lines to cable/WiFi to wireless to LTE -- have had some of the greatest impact on computing of any other factor. And, 5G has a potential to be one of biggest advances in that long history.
Is there any reason for this delay other than the U.S. - China security feud (thus blocking Chinese vendors) or the Apple-Qualcomm feud or Intel's incompetence? In other words, is there any valid (technical) reason for the delay? If the technology is there, why would Apple wait?
I for one would not want to spend a grand on a phone that is soon to be obsolete.
1) There won't be a wide US rollout in 2020, or even 2021. Most major metros won't even see any 5G until 2021, much less the rest of the country. 2) There are still 5G "standards" to shake out, as well as implementation details, because once again, we've got battling ideas from the carriers on what is best.
#1) So that means that Pittsburgh can't have it because Cleveland doesn't? That won't sit well in Pittsburgh
#2) That's a valid reason to approach it cautiously. But, on the other hand, we wouldn't have a cell phones if every manufacturer waited for all the carriers to agree.
I would count that as a mistake on Apple's part. And a failure on Intel's part.
Multiple vendors are rolling out 5G and, it appears that, the U.S. may be falling behind China.
But, most importantly, the stories are presented that "It will be delayed a year". But, since most people keep their phones for 2-4 years, the impact on MOST iPhone customers will be far more than waiting "a year".
And that multi-year delay may have significant ramifications: We have seen that progress in communications technologies -- from T1 & copper dial-up lines to cable/WiFi to wireless to LTE -- have had some of the greatest impact on computing of any other factor. And, 5G has a potential to be one of biggest advances in that long history.
Is there any reason for this delay other than the U.S. - China security feud (thus blocking Chinese vendors) or the Apple-Qualcomm feud or Intel's incompetence? In other words, is there any valid (technical) reason for the delay? If the technology is there, why would Apple wait?
I for one would not want to spend a grand on a phone that is soon to be obsolete.
1) There won't be a wide US rollout in 2020, or even 2021. Most major metros won't even see any 5G until 2021, much less the rest of the country. 2) There are still 5G "standards" to shake out, as well as implementation details, because once again, we've got battling ideas from the carriers on what is best.
I completely agree with your two points. Spot on. 4G isn't even worldwide yet.
Just like Apple got bashed waiting a year introducing a 3G-capable iPhone.
Why would I buy a 5G iphone if my provider is not supporting them?? Kind of wasteful to me
I generally get 50Mbps, but a speed test right now gives me 1.4Mbps. Carriers need to focus on a consistent reliable 4G network, but that’s poor marketing.
Companies sell hope of improvement rather than actual improvements.
For the record, my pathetic 1.4Mbps only started after T-Mobile began mixing in Sprints @#$& network. Maybe they’re thinking bringing both customers to 5G is easier than mixing in the Sprint garbage successfully.
Whatever the case, it’s not Apple/Intel hardware that’s the lowest common denominator...
I would bet on that. Why would they sink money in developing a better buggy whip?
This is just like the rollout of 4G. Apple waited until the iPhone 5 before adding 4G/LTE even though many other vendors had it much earlier (some even thought the iPhone 4 would have LTE simply because the numbering ‘4’ matches ‘4G’.)
I remember my iPhone 5 and how spotty LTE coverage was (I live in Vancouver, hardly a rural area). Even in the US a lot of markets didn’t have LTE when the iPhone 5 launched, let alone when the 4S or 4 launched. On my daily commute my iPhone was always searching for and switching between LTE and 3G, much to the dismay of my battery life. I left LTE turned off when I was commuting because of this and only enabled it when I was in a fixed location and I had a stable signal.
I suspect 5G will be the same and will take a couple years to be widespread. Further, 5G won’t have as much of an impact on users as the jump from 3G to 4G did.
5G will just be used as another irrelevant talking point to claim Apple is behind.
It's a false analogy to equate the roll out of LTE to 5G.
LTE was just an evolutionary upgrade to 3G -- a big one, but still just an upgrade. And, at the time of the 4S, cell phones were still cell phones -- at least to Apple's way of thinking. And,that is why they weren't making "phablets" - they thought nobody wanted to hold a phablet to their ear to talk.
5G has the capacity to bring a LOT more functionality to the table.
And, so what if its initial rollout doesn't cover every inch of Canada? If you waited for that we would have a copper wire dangling out the bottom of your phone. Actually, even the rollout of copper wires was pretty spotty: That's why the Roosevelt administration created the Tennessee Valley Authority to bring phone lines to Appalachia when nobody else would.
When you sell a product that your customers expect to last 4 years or more you better be sure that the technology you put inside is the right stuff. Apple will not be late to the game, they will just make sure they have the rights pieces to play the game to win.
What's funny is people are claiming Apple is making iPhones obsolete by not adding 5G right away. The theory is that when 5G comes out all existing iPhones will somehow no longer function properly and will become useless since they don't support the future 5G standard. It's almost as if they think 4G/LTE will get switched off the day 5G comes out.
Are you still using your 3G phone? 3G is still there you know. So why aren't you still using your iPhone 4S?
I would count that as a mistake on Apple's part. And a failure on Intel's part.
Multiple vendors are rolling out 5G and, it appears that, the U.S. may be falling behind China.
But, most importantly, the stories are presented that "It will be delayed a year". But, since most people keep their phones for 2-4 years, the impact on MOST iPhone customers will be far more than waiting "a year".
And that multi-year delay may have significant ramifications: We have seen that progress in communications technologies -- from T1 & copper dial-up lines to cable/WiFi to wireless to LTE -- have had some of the greatest impact on computing of any other factor. And, 5G has a potential to be one of biggest advances in that long history.
Is there any reason for this delay other than the U.S. - China security feud (thus blocking Chinese vendors) or the Apple-Qualcomm feud or Intel's incompetence? In other words, is there any valid (technical) reason for the delay? If the technology is there, why would Apple wait?
I for one would not want to spend a grand on a phone that is soon to be obsolete.
1) There won't be a wide US rollout in 2020, or even 2021. Most major metros won't even see any 5G until 2021, much less the rest of the country. 2) There are still 5G "standards" to shake out, as well as implementation details, because once again, we've got battling ideas from the carriers on what is best.
I completely agree with your two points. Spot on. 4G isn't even worldwide yet.
Just like Apple got bashed waiting a year introducing a 3G-capable iPhone.
Why would I buy a 5G iphone if my provider is not supporting them?? Kind of wasteful to me
That works if you only plan on keeping it till your carrier DOES roll out 5G in your area.
For most customers, a phone is a major investment meant to last years. Once, 5G is available, that LTE phone is as obsolete as a 3G phone. If that phone is only a year old, that will be one unhappy customer.
Independently of the technical situation, a key element to success is marketing.
Having 5G on your handset will give anyone who has it, a leg up on the intial sales and by the same token (and mentioned further up this thread) may persuade some people to hold off upgrading.
The problem for Apple is the release cycle. If they don't ship a 5G phone this year, the next usual window of opportunity rolls over to the end of 2020. That might be a stretch depending on how real world roll outs go.
The infrastructure upgrade to support 5G is going to be huge. It’s going to require adding thousands, if not millions, of cell towers with spacing down to a small as 500 feet. I’m having trouble imagining any of the carriers implementing this on a nationwide scale in the timeframes where any consumer will see a consistent advantage.
When you sell a product that your customers expect to last 4 years or more you better be sure that the technology you put inside is the right stuff. Apple will not be late to the game, they will just make sure they have the rights pieces to play the game to win.
What's funny is people are claiming Apple is making iPhones obsolete by not adding 5G right away. The theory is that when 5G comes out all existing iPhones will somehow no longer function properly and will become useless since they don't support the future 5G standard. It's almost as if they think 4G/LTE will get switched off the day 5G comes out.
Are you still using your 3G phone? 3G is still there you know. So why aren't you still using your iPhone 4S?
I use new iPhones because of all the upgrades that directly affect how it works - the processors, screens, cameras, FaceID and so on. Not because of some imaginary upgrade in the form of faster data access that’s pretty much irrelevant.
The people promoting 5G are lying through their teeth. They’re claiming the faster data acces will make your mobile devices “instant” such that anything you want to access will appear immediately without delay. Complete bullshit.
I had gigabit Internet access when it was first being tested/rolled out. It did nothing to make my experience using the Internet any faster. The reason is that the bottleneck isn’t the speed at my end, but at the server (and al the connections in between). All my day-to-day activities were no better with gigabit vs my previous service. Except when I downloaded several large files (multiple gigabyte files) from different servers at the same time. Then, and only then, would there be a noticeable difference.
5G is something the Android side wants to promote because it gives them a feature the iPhone doesn’t have. They’re trying to make it seem far more valuable than it actually is because they desperately need a win. They have an inferior OS, vastly inferior privacy/security, inferior Apps and ecosystem and inferior processors. So they’ll cling to anything where they have an advantage (even though it’s minor) and try to make it seem like a game changer. It’s not.
Independently of the technical situation, a key element to success is marketing.
Having 5G on your handset will give anyone who has it, a leg up on the intial sales and by the same token (and mentioned further up this thread) may persuade some people to hold off upgrading.
The problem for Apple is the release cycle. If they don't ship a 5G phone this year, the next usual window of opportunity rolls over to the end of 2020. That might be a stretch depending on how real world roll outs go.
There is no problem for Apple at all. Just imaginary issues that are supposedly deal breakers that never materialize or affect Apple in any way.
1) There won't be a wide US rollout in 2020, or even 2021. Most major metros won't even see any 5G until 2021, much less the rest of the country. 2) There are still 5G "standards" to shake out, as well as implementation details, because once again, we've got battling ideas from the carriers on what is best.
Yes. But in the EU it will be different. And it is a bunch of quite affluent markets. Moreover, the 2 cycle of iPhone X purchasers will be complete, so that group of customers will see their contract open up for renewal and subsidies (quite common in Europe) and will most certainly be on the lookout for a new smartphone.
( Excerpt from the 5G Europe Action plan:)
Align roadmaps and priorities for a coordinated 5G deployment across all EU Member states, targeting early network introduction by 2018, and moving towards commercial large scale introduction by the end of 2020 at the latest.
Make provisional spectrum bands available for 5G ahead of the 2019 World Radio Communication Conference (WRC-19), to be complemented by additional bands as quickly as possible, and work towards a recommended approach for the authorisation of the specific 5G spectrum bands above 6GHz.
Promote early deployment in major urban areas and along major transport paths.
Promote pan-European multi-stakeholder trials as catalysts to turn technological innovation into full business solutions.
Facilitate the implementation of an industry-led venture fund in support of 5G-based innovation.
Unite leading actors in working towards the promotion of global standards.
I work for one of the top telecom vendors, and can say quite unequivocally that Europe is lagging in 5G adoption plans. 5G deployments are starting to happen in the US, with China and packets of Asia next, followed by Europe. And reality setting is that while 5G deployments are just starting, it takes time (years) to build adequate network coverage, as well as market the value of the new technology and gain subscribers. A few cities will have 5G coverage next year.
The first 5G phones will be appearing in 2019. Waiting until 2020 (if that is what Apple does, and what I expect) is absolutely no issue.
The countries where the most affluent customers live, and the cities within these countries, will almost certainly have full functional 5 G networks. I think it is a missed opportunity not to deliver in 2019. I think the iPhone XS 2 will have 5G, whereas the iPhone Xr 2 will not. But Apple needs to provide the choice for the markets where customers are willing to pay a premium for its smartphones, because these will be the countries where 5G will almost certainly be available. Moreover 5G offers many advantages besides speed (low latency being one) so the difference in "speed" of a smartphone will be noticeable (from Netflix, ti iCloud, to many other things). 5G also has the promise to allow "sim-less" devices on a greater number of carriers, which seems something Apple is very interested in.
They will not. Three countries in Europe conducted tests and there are correlated environmental issues. Birds in neighborhood of test started misbehaving and even died en masse until test stopped. You may want to read some articles on this. 5G has unknown impact at this point and you cannot proceed with technology unless you eliminate doubts.
Independently of the technical situation, a key element to success is marketing.
Having 5G on your handset will give anyone who has it, a leg up on the intial sales and by the same token (and mentioned further up this thread) may persuade some people to hold off upgrading.
The problem for Apple is the release cycle. If they don't ship a 5G phone this year, the next usual window of opportunity rolls over to the end of 2020. That might be a stretch depending on how real world roll outs go.
There is no problem for Apple at all. Just imaginary issues that are supposedly deal breakers that never materialize or affect Apple in any way.
There is no way to know. Hence the conditional part of the post.
5G will roll out in exactly the same way as 4G. Areas with the highest gain for carriers (big cities) will see it first and from there it will cascade down to other areas depending on legislation for each country. Auctions for use of the spectrum will sometimes be tied to coverage goals. IoT and cloud will be other factors in play as will be specific use cases.
What you cannot say is 'there is no problem for Apple'. Only time will tell on that one as we simply don't know how things will play out.
And, 5G has a potential to be one of biggest advances in that long history.
Chances are you won't get any advantage in the US from 5G because at best you normally get maybe two bars of signal strength even in America's largest cities. I was at a meeting on Friday where a vendor was trying to give a presentation. We were upstairs while the public wifi was just below on the first level. The wifi has terrible performance in that location because it is transmitting through 12" of reinforced concrete. He tried to use a hotspot through his iPhone but was only getting one bar from T-moble. Eventually I set up my hotspot on Verizon where I luckily had four bars since the Verizon tower was just across the street transmitting only through a pane of glass, but at home I only get two bars at best and this is in the center of Los Angeles county.
When you sell a product that your customers expect to last 4 years or more you better be sure that the technology you put inside is the right stuff. Apple will not be late to the game, they will just make sure they have the rights pieces to play the game to win.
What's funny is people are claiming Apple is making iPhones obsolete by not adding 5G right away. The theory is that when 5G comes out all existing iPhones will somehow no longer function properly and will become useless since they don't support the future 5G standard. It's almost as if they think 4G/LTE will get switched off the day 5G comes out.
Are you still using your 3G phone? 3G is still there you know. So why aren't you still using your iPhone 4S?
I use new iPhones because of all the upgrades that directly affect how it works - the processors, screens, cameras, FaceID and so on. Not because of some imaginary upgrade in the form of faster data access that’s pretty much irrelevant.
The people promoting 5G are lying through their teeth. They’re claiming the faster data acces will make your mobile devices “instant” such that anything you want to access will appear immediately without delay. Complete bullshit.
I had gigabit Internet access when it was first being tested/rolled out. It did nothing to make my experience using the Internet any faster. The reason is that the bottleneck isn’t the speed at my end, but at the server (and al the connections in between). All my day-to-day activities were no better with gigabit vs my previous service. Except when I downloaded several large files (multiple gigabyte files) from different servers at the same time. Then, and only then, would there be a noticeable difference.
5G is something the Android side wants to promote because it gives them a feature the iPhone doesn’t have. They’re trying to make it seem far more valuable than it actually is because they desperately need a win. They have an inferior OS, vastly inferior privacy/security, inferior Apps and ecosystem and inferior processors. So they’ll cling to anything where they have an advantage (even though it’s minor) and try to make it seem like a game changer. It’s not.
When you sell a product that your customers expect to last 4 years or more you better be sure that the technology you put inside is the right stuff. Apple will not be late to the game, they will just make sure they have the rights pieces to play the game to win.
What's funny is people are claiming Apple is making iPhones obsolete by not adding 5G right away. The theory is that when 5G comes out all existing iPhones will somehow no longer function properly and will become useless since they don't support the future 5G standard. It's almost as if they think 4G/LTE will get switched off the day 5G comes out.
Are you still using your 3G phone? 3G is still there you know. So why aren't you still using your iPhone 4S?
I use new iPhones because of all the upgrades that directly affect how it works - the processors, screens, cameras, FaceID and so on. Not because of some imaginary upgrade in the form of faster data access that’s pretty much irrelevant.
The people promoting 5G are lying through their teeth. They’re claiming the faster data acces will make your mobile devices “instant” such that anything you want to access will appear immediately without delay. Complete bullshit.
I had gigabit Internet access when it was first being tested/rolled out. It did nothing to make my experience using the Internet any faster. The reason is that the bottleneck isn’t the speed at my end, but at the server (and al the connections in between). All my day-to-day activities were no better with gigabit vs my previous service. Except when I downloaded several large files (multiple gigabyte files) from different servers at the same time. Then, and only then, would there be a noticeable difference.
5G is something the Android side wants to promote because it gives them a feature the iPhone doesn’t have. They’re trying to make it seem far more valuable than it actually is because they desperately need a win. They have an inferior OS, vastly inferior privacy/security, inferior Apps and ecosystem and inferior processors. So they’ll cling to anything where they have an advantage (even though it’s minor) and try to make it seem like a game changer. It’s not.
Independently of the technical situation, a key element to success is marketing.
Having 5G on your handset will give anyone who has it, a leg up on the intial sales and by the same token (and mentioned further up this thread) may persuade some people to hold off upgrading.
The problem for Apple is the release cycle. If they don't ship a 5G phone this year, the next usual window of opportunity rolls over to the end of 2020. That might be a stretch depending on how real world roll outs go.
There is no problem for Apple at all. Just imaginary issues that are supposedly deal breakers that never materialize or affect Apple in any way.
There is no way to know. Hence the conditional part of the post.
5G will roll out in exactly the same way as 4G. Areas with the highest gain for carriers (big cities) will see it first and from there it will cascade down to other areas depending on legislation for each country. Auctions for use of the spectrum will sometimes be tied to coverage goals. IoT and cloud will be other factors in play as will be specific use cases.
What you cannot say is 'there is no problem for Apple'. Only time will tell on that one as we simply don't know how things will play out.
I can absolutely say there’s no problem for Apple.
This is based on years and years of similar situations and how the predictions about how they will affect Apple turning out to be wrong.
If you feel otherwise I suggest “putting your money where your mouth is” and betting against Apple.
Comments
What's funny is people are claiming Apple is making iPhones obsolete by not adding 5G right away. The theory is that when 5G comes out all existing iPhones will somehow no longer function properly and will become useless since they don't support the future 5G standard. It's almost as if they think 4G/LTE will get switched off the day 5G comes out.
The whole cell tower thing is baffling for its ponderous lack of imagination on both sides of the telco/nimby debate.
In an effort to hide cell towers or make them blend in with the landscape the telcos have created cell towers that look like a pine tree, a palm tree, a saguaro cactus, and all sorts of other goofy stuff. They uniformly look stupid and little like what they pretend to be. What a bunch of dingbats! Who thought that was a good idea?
Get a frikin’ industrial designer on the job and you could end up with a modern work of art. Or are the telcos too afraid to try anything daring? The Eiffel Tower was initially mocked when it was built but it’s true-to-the-times industrial architecture has withstood the test of time. Stop trying to hide the damn things! Put some effort into them and make them both functional and beautiful!
#2) That's a valid reason to approach it cautiously. But, on the other hand, we wouldn't have a cell phones if every manufacturer waited for all the carriers to agree.
For most customers, a phone is a major investment meant to last years. Once, 5G is available, that LTE phone is as obsolete as a 3G phone. If that phone is only a year old, that will be one unhappy customer.
Having 5G on your handset will give anyone who has it, a leg up on the intial sales and by the same token (and mentioned further up this thread) may persuade some people to hold off upgrading.
The problem for Apple is the release cycle. If they don't ship a 5G phone this year, the next usual window of opportunity rolls over to the end of 2020. That might be a stretch depending on how real world roll outs go.
I use new iPhones because of all the upgrades that directly affect how it works - the processors, screens, cameras, FaceID and so on. Not because of some imaginary upgrade in the form of faster data access that’s pretty much irrelevant.
The people promoting 5G are lying through their teeth. They’re claiming the faster data acces will make your mobile devices “instant” such that anything you want to access will appear immediately without delay. Complete bullshit.
I had gigabit Internet access when it was first being tested/rolled out. It did nothing to make my experience using the Internet any faster. The reason is that the bottleneck isn’t the speed at my end, but at the server (and al the connections in between). All my day-to-day activities were no better with gigabit vs my previous service. Except when I downloaded several large files (multiple gigabyte files) from different servers at the same time. Then, and only then, would there be a noticeable difference.
5G is something the Android side wants to promote because it gives them a feature the iPhone doesn’t have. They’re trying to make it seem far more valuable than it actually is because they desperately need a win. They have an inferior OS, vastly inferior privacy/security, inferior Apps and ecosystem and inferior processors. So they’ll cling to anything where they have an advantage (even though it’s minor) and try to make it seem like a game changer. It’s not.
There is no problem for Apple at all. Just imaginary issues that are supposedly deal breakers that never materialize or affect Apple in any way.
The first 5G phones will be appearing in 2019. Waiting until 2020 (if that is what Apple does, and what I expect) is absolutely no issue.
5G will roll out in exactly the same way as 4G. Areas with the highest gain for carriers (big cities) will see it first and from there it will cascade down to other areas depending on legislation for each country. Auctions for use of the spectrum will sometimes be tied to coverage goals. IoT and cloud will be other factors in play as will be specific use cases.
What you cannot say is 'there is no problem for Apple'. Only time will tell on that one as we simply don't know how things will play out.
"Samsung and Verizon (VZ) jointly announced Monday the companies would sell a 5G smartphone in the first half of 2019. "
https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/03/tech/samsung-verizon-5g/index.html
Sorry the truth bothers you so much.
I can absolutely say there’s no problem for Apple.
This is based on years and years of similar situations and how the predictions about how they will affect Apple turning out to be wrong.
If you feel otherwise I suggest “putting your money where your mouth is” and betting against Apple.