Ming-Chi Kuo says iPhone XR demand is weak, cuts sales estimates for Q1 2019

13

Comments

  • Reply 41 of 78
    It used to be very clear, if you want the best tech, you get a new iPhone. Then you get to choose a large and extra-large. Then if you wanted a smaller phone like the "old days", you get the SE. Now it is very confusing. If you want a new phone this year, you have to spend $1000 or more. So what is XR, a kind new tech phone that is $750, that is kind between large and extra-large. Apple for years gave people simple choices, but this year, very confusing, and it feels like being tricked into buying a 5c for $100 more.
    Also leaving more products in the lineup to hit a bunch of different price points make the lineups look messy. They finally cleaned up the iPad somewhat. Mac laptops and iPhones are still messy.
  • Reply 42 of 78
    Apple says the X[R] is their top seller, so I’m calling Ming a dingaling.
    He was known as “Ming The Merciless” in an alternate dimension. 
  • Reply 43 of 78
    dougddougd Posts: 292member
    Not too surprising considering their rip off pricing
  • Reply 44 of 78

    tzeshan said:
    DAalseth said:
    Though I have a healthy degree of skepticism toward analysts projections, this one rings true for me.
    But I think it's not Apple's fault. Rather I think this is part of a much larger swing in the economy. With GM, and trade spats even with friendly counties, and budget deficits, and all sorts of things, I think a lot of people are frightened. Frightened people don't splurge on a $1k phone if the old one is still working. But then they also won't splurge on cars, or stereos, or expensive home furnishings. I suspect this will be a disappointing quarter for Apple, along with the rest of the economy. I've talked to a lot of people who are holding their wallets close, loved ones closer, and are just keeping it simple this year. 
    Personal experience isn’t something that can be argued, however Apple has always made products for the price-insensitive and that hasn’t changed.
    I agree with him. You have to look at MAGA with empathy point of view. Consumers spend money a product always with a goodwill toward the company. But the President and his ultra right staffs put all kinds of bad words toward China. Even with unsubstantiated accusations like Bloomberg accuses Chinese security office of implanting chips. What will Chinese people feel of these accusations. But back to the truth, the ultra right wing white Americans really don't care. Their mind is very selfish. American is great. They want to restrict this to white people. They like to build a wall no matter what. Can US maintain greatness by isolating with the rest of world? If you think so, then explain why 1929 happened? Is it death by China? Or it is actually death by US? 
    Please don’t. 
  • Reply 45 of 78
    jdgaz said:
    Until Tim Cook says something other than what he said on the earnings call I do not believe any of this baloney.
    I normally wouldn’t either but the fact that Apple is aggressively pushing their trade-in program and even increased trade-in values by $100 makes me think there might be something to these rumors. Nothing like this was on the front page of Apple’s website last year or any year before that.

    Maybe they’re all getting the supply chain completely wrong. Wouldn’t be the firs time. Or maybe consumers are balking at the higher prices. A couple years ago the flagship iPhone started at $649. Now it’s $999. That’s not nothing. 
    Lets look at facts not rhetoric.
    Apple’s gross margins have been more or less the same since Steve’s time untill now.
     That says it all, period. ( public record… go check it )
    All this talk about ‘Apple is greedy this, greedy that, is just BS talk from the unreasonably disgruntled individuals.. and competition’s negative propaganda....and shorts....Thats all.
     Apple has been a higher priced brand and still is…. nothing has changed.

     Plus...Old commoditized electronics or in general products becomes cheaper in time.
    But Not New Cutting Edge Tehnology! The massive R&D expenses both in product and production equipment …and ramp up cost dont just evaporate in thin air.
     So lets stop this Apple bashing fad. Apple has phones from 449$ to 1500$.
     Pick the one that offers the proper value proposition for you.
     
    PS..
     iPhone 7 128, when it was first released sold for 749$ 2 years or so later it is selling for 449$..
     As you can see in black and white ..the old got cheaper .. by 40 %.
    Fact though is prices on flagship phones have gone up. Is price a consideration at all when Apple is designing new products. I think it should be a factor. I wish Apple would have found a way to get the new MacBook Air at a $999 starting price. Also the competition isn’t garbage anymore. Certainly not the hardware. So Apple has to work harder to justify the price premium.
  • Reply 46 of 78
    How are other phones selling?  This could be huge for Apple.  They make so much money with their phones, while everyone else makes a pittance.  A severe price drop can be withstood by Apple with their tremendous cash reserves, but if other companies are also forced to lower their price to fend off a lower cost iPhone?  They may just throw in the towel.
  • Reply 47 of 78
    tzeshantzeshan Posts: 2,351member
    jdgaz said:
    Until Tim Cook says something other than what he said on the earnings call I do not believe any of this baloney.
    I normally wouldn’t either but the fact that Apple is aggressively pushing their trade-in program and even increased trade-in values by $100 makes me think there might be something to these rumors. Nothing like this was on the front page of Apple’s website last year or any year before that.

    Maybe they’re all getting the supply chain completely wrong. Wouldn’t be the firs time. Or maybe consumers are balking at the higher prices. A couple years ago the flagship iPhone started at $649. Now it’s $999. That’s not nothing. 
    Lets look at facts not rhetoric.
    Apple’s gross margins have been more or less the same since Steve’s time untill now.
     That says it all, period. ( public record… go check it )
    All this talk about ‘Apple is greedy this, greedy that, is just BS talk from the unreasonably disgruntled individuals.. and competition’s negative propaganda....and shorts....Thats all.
     Apple has been a higher priced brand and still is…. nothing has changed.

     Plus...Old commoditized electronics or in general products becomes cheaper in time.
    But Not New Cutting Edge Tehnology! The massive R&D expenses both in product and production equipment …and ramp up cost dont just evaporate in thin air.
     So lets stop this Apple bashing fad. Apple has phones from 449$ to 1500$.
     Pick the one that offers the proper value proposition for you.
     
    PS..
     iPhone 7 128, when it was first released sold for 749$ 2 years or so later it is selling for 449$..
     As you can see in black and white ..the old got cheaper .. by 40 %.
    I think Apple set the price based on profit margin. Because this is what Wall Street looks at. Then why iPhone price rising so much in recent years? It is because the components are more expensive. Why? Because better components. OLED, FaceID, dual camera, all requiring more money. And not the least of all, the Chinese workers pay are rising too. 
  • Reply 48 of 78
    jdgaz said:
    Until Tim Cook says something other than what he said on the earnings call I do not believe any of this baloney.
    I normally wouldn’t either but the fact that Apple is aggressively pushing their trade-in program and even increased trade-in values by $100 makes me think there might be something to these rumors. Nothing like this was on the front page of Apple’s website last year or any year before that.

    Maybe they’re all getting the supply chain completely wrong. Wouldn’t be the firs time. Or maybe consumers are balking at the higher prices. A couple years ago the flagship iPhone started at $649. Now it’s $999. That’s not nothing. 
    Lets look at facts not rhetoric.
    Apple’s gross margins have been more or less the same since Steve’s time untill now.
     That says it all, period. ( public record… go check it )
    All this talk about ‘Apple is greedy this, greedy that, is just BS talk from the unreasonably disgruntled individuals.. and competition’s negative propaganda....and shorts....Thats all.
     Apple has been a higher priced brand and still is…. nothing has changed.

     Plus...Old commoditized electronics or in general products becomes cheaper in time.
    But Not New Cutting Edge Tehnology! The massive R&D expenses both in product and production equipment …and ramp up cost dont just evaporate in thin air.
     So lets stop this Apple bashing fad. Apple has phones from 449$ to 1500$.
     Pick the one that offers the proper value proposition for you.
     
    PS..
     iPhone 7 128, when it was first released sold for 749$ 2 years or so later it is selling for 449$..
     As you can see in black and white ..the old got cheaper .. by 40 %.

    I just visited the US Apple site -- the iPhone 7 128 sells for $549 not $449.  And the old got cheaper by 27% not by 40%.

    https://www.apple.com/shop/buy-iphone/iphone-7/4.7-inch-display-128gb-black-att#00,10,30
    edited December 2018
  • Reply 49 of 78
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 8,001member
    jdgaz said:
    Until Tim Cook says something other than what he said on the earnings call I do not believe any of this baloney.
    I normally wouldn’t either but the fact that Apple is aggressively pushing their trade-in program and even increased trade-in values by $100 makes me think there might be something to these rumors. Nothing like this was on the front page of Apple’s website last year or any year before that.

    Maybe they’re all getting the supply chain completely wrong. Wouldn’t be the firs time. Or maybe consumers are balking at the higher prices. A couple years ago the flagship iPhone started at $649. Now it’s $999. That’s not nothing. 
    Lets look at facts not rhetoric.
    Apple’s gross margins have been more or less the same since Steve’s time untill now.
     That says it all, period. ( public record… go check it )
    All this talk about ‘Apple is greedy this, greedy that, is just BS talk from the unreasonably disgruntled individuals.. and competition’s negative propaganda....and shorts....Thats all.
     Apple has been a higher priced brand and still is…. nothing has changed.

     Plus...Old commoditized electronics or in general products becomes cheaper in time.
    But Not New Cutting Edge Tehnology! The massive R&D expenses both in product and production equipment …and ramp up cost dont just evaporate in thin air.
     So lets stop this Apple bashing fad. Apple has phones from 449$ to 1500$.
     Pick the one that offers the proper value proposition for you.
     
    PS..
     iPhone 7 128, when it was first released sold for 749$ 2 years or so later it is selling for 449$..
     As you can see in black and white ..the old got cheaper .. by 40 %.
    Forget margins. Most people have no idea about them. What people see is the final price.

    R&D is great but if it adds $300 to the already high price of a laptop for example (Touch Bar) AND you can't buy a 15 inch MBP without one, you should at least understand why Apple gets bashed. Then add on Keyboard issues and repair issues etc and margins mean very little.
  • Reply 50 of 78
    asdasd said:
    jdgaz said:
    Until Tim Cook says something other than what he said on the earnings call I do not believe any of this baloney.
    I normally wouldn’t either but the fact that Apple is aggressively pushing their trade-in program and even increased trade-in values by $100 makes me think there might be something to these rumors. Nothing like this was on the front page of Apple’s website last year or any year before that.

    Maybe they’re all getting the supply chain completely wrong. Wouldn’t be the firs time. Or maybe consumers are balking at the higher prices. A couple years ago the flagship iPhone started at $649. Now it’s $999. That’s not nothing. 
    Its definitely something. Also the old phones are fine. I have an 8, no reason to upgrade. 

    If Apple produce something really good in iOS for the next generation of phones - it might force the upgrade cycle.
    Apple is not aggressivly pushing anything. Not in the universe i live in where one observes facts.
     Apple is not offering anything extraordinary or more attractive than you can easly sell on ebay. Actually they are offering a worse deal than you can sell on ebay.. and they have done this for years now.. tradein deals are nothing new. .....And they have always offered lower tradein values than one can sell independently. This year us no different!

     All this speculation? .. why? because the put xr tradin deal on their websites front page ( in which what they offer for a trad in is below market value )? That is considered ‘aggressive pushing’.. .. then why wasn't considered the sand  it in the past years ? They did the same.
     Unbelievable .. Apple is not even allowed to advertise or promote a product anymore.. or the street will say something is wrong... Apple products should sell themselves... with no marketing...
     It is ludicrous ....
     And silly how this narrative has just gone way out if control.. and misinformed people just keep the frenzy alive by adding fuel to it.
    edited December 2018
  • Reply 51 of 78
    DAalseth said:
    DAalseth said:
    Though I have a healthy degree of skepticism toward analysts projections, this one rings true for me.
    But I think it's not Apple's fault. Rather I think this is part of a much larger swing in the economy. With GM, and trade spats even with friendly counties, and budget deficits, and all sorts of things, I think a lot of people are frightened. Frightened people don't splurge on a $1k phone if the old one is still working. But then they also won't splurge on cars, or stereos, or expensive home furnishings. I suspect this will be a disappointing quarter for Apple, along with the rest of the economy. I've talked to a lot of people who are holding their wallets close, loved ones closer, and are just keeping it simple this year. 
    Personal experience isn’t something that can be argued, however Apple has always made products for the price-insensitive and that hasn’t changed.
    That works when times are good. But when people expect, or are seeing, times get bad the number who are price insensitive drops dramatically. 
    On the other hand, how are times bad right now? The number of employed in the US is at a 40-50 year high right now and wages are going up, not down. Yes, the stock market is violently fluctuating, but that’s the stock market.
    edited December 2018 scribe1964
  • Reply 52 of 78
    I thought this guy was going to stop doing analysis of Apple? 
  • Reply 53 of 78
    I don't at all think Apple is doomed...hate that mindset of the naysayers.

    However, I do think the world continues to change pretty fast and perhaps Apple may need to evaluate their pricing.  I'm happy to pay a premium, but the increases on various products such as the Mac Mini and iPhone has been pretty steep as of late.

    Interestingly I think the iMac is a great value.  Just bought a 4K 21.5" with the Radeon 560 at the end of Sept and love it to death.

    Apple, like many companies, is having to adjust to our rapidly changing world and all the geopolitical issues present.

    Hang in there everyone! :)
  • Reply 54 of 78
    jdgaz said:
    Until Tim Cook says something other than what he said on the earnings call I do not believe any of this baloney.
    I normally wouldn’t either but the fact that Apple is aggressively pushing their trade-in program and even increased trade-in values by $100 makes me think there might be something to these rumors. Nothing like this was on the front page of Apple’s website last year or any year before that.

    Maybe they’re all getting the supply chain completely wrong. Wouldn’t be the firs time. Or maybe consumers are balking at the higher prices. A couple years ago the flagship iPhone started at $649. Now it’s $999. That’s not nothing. 
    Lets look at facts not rhetoric.
    Apple’s gross margins have been more or less the same since Steve’s time untill now.
     That says it all, period. ( public record… go check it )
    All this talk about ‘Apple is greedy this, greedy that, is just BS talk from the unreasonably disgruntled individuals.. and competition’s negative propaganda....and shorts....Thats all.
     Apple has been a higher priced brand and still is…. nothing has changed.

     Plus...Old commoditized electronics or in general products becomes cheaper in time.
    But Not New Cutting Edge Tehnology! The massive R&D expenses both in product and production equipment …and ramp up cost dont just evaporate in thin air.
     So lets stop this Apple bashing fad. Apple has phones from 449$ to 1500$.
     Pick the one that offers the proper value proposition for you.
     
    PS..
     iPhone 7 128, when it was first released sold for 749$ 2 years or so later it is selling for 449$..
     As you can see in black and white ..the old got cheaper .. by 40 %.
    Fact though is prices on flagship phones have gone up. Is price a consideration at all when Apple is designing new products. I think it should be a factor. I wish Apple would have found a way to get the new MacBook Air at a $999 starting price. Also the competition isn’t garbage anymore. Certainly not the hardware. So Apple has to work harder to justify the price premium.
    The gross margin % hasnt moved! The prices are not ‘jacked up’ or ‘raised’. Why pedal this nonsense? 
  • Reply 55 of 78
    analyst52 said:
    Does this ever get old for analysts?
    If Ming-Chi Kuo's analysis is always wrong then why slavishly repeat everything he writes? Apple devotees aren't even the intended audience for these reports and why would consumers even care?
  • Reply 56 of 78
    DAalsethDAalseth Posts: 3,017member
    DAalseth said:
    DAalseth said:
    Though I have a healthy degree of skepticism toward analysts projections, this one rings true for me.
    But I think it's not Apple's fault. Rather I think this is part of a much larger swing in the economy. With GM, and trade spats even with friendly counties, and budget deficits, and all sorts of things, I think a lot of people are frightened. Frightened people don't splurge on a $1k phone if the old one is still working. But then they also won't splurge on cars, or stereos, or expensive home furnishings. I suspect this will be a disappointing quarter for Apple, along with the rest of the economy. I've talked to a lot of people who are holding their wallets close, loved ones closer, and are just keeping it simple this year. 
    Personal experience isn’t something that can be argued, however Apple has always made products for the price-insensitive and that hasn’t changed.
    That works when times are good. But when people expect, or are seeing, times get bad the number who are price insensitive drops dramatically. 
    On the other hand, how are times bad right now? The number of employed in the US is at a 40-50 year high right now and wages are going up, not down. Yes, the stock market is violently fluctuating, but that’s the stock market.
    Ask the people who used to work for GM, or Minnesota #oybean farmers who’ve lost their upcoming sales to China. Times are okay now. I was refering to spring ‘19. I know of a lot of people who are worried about where the economy is going. They are the ones who are holding back on big discretionary purchases. We won’t know however until January when the holiday sales are announced.
  • Reply 57 of 78
    clarker99 said:
    jdgaz said:
    Until Tim Cook says something other than what he said on the earnings call I do not believe any of this baloney.
    I normally wouldn’t either but the fact that Apple is aggressively pushing their trade-in program and even increased trade-in values by $100 makes me think there might be something to these rumors. Nothing like this was on the front page of Apple’s website last year or any year before that.

    Maybe they’re all getting the supply chain completely wrong. Wouldn’t be the firs time. Or maybe consumers are balking at the higher prices. A couple years ago the flagship iPhone started at $649. Now it’s $999. That’s not nothing. 
    Lets look at facts not rhetoric.
    Apple’s gross margins have been more or less the same since Steve’s time untill now.
     That says it all, period. ( public record… go check it )
    All this talk about ‘Apple is greedy this, greedy that, is just BS talk from the unreasonably disgruntled individuals.. and competition’s negative propaganda....and shorts....Thats all.
     Apple has been a higher priced brand and still is…. nothing has changed.

     Plus...Old commoditized electronics or in general products becomes cheaper in time.
    But Not New Cutting Edge Tehnology! The massive R&D expenses both in product and production equipment …and ramp up cost dont just evaporate in thin air.
     So lets stop this Apple bashing fad. Apple has phones from 449$ to 1500$.
     Pick the one that offers the proper value proposition for you.
     
    PS..
     iPhone 7 128, when it was first released sold for 749$ 2 years or so later it is selling for 449$..
     As you can see in black and white ..the old got cheaper .. by 40 %.
    Fact though is prices on flagship phones have gone up. Is price a consideration at all when Apple is designing new products. I think it should be a factor. I wish Apple would have found a way to get the new MacBook Air at a $999 starting price. Also the competition isn’t garbage anymore. Certainly not the hardware. So Apple has to work harder to justify the price premium.
    The gross margin % hasnt moved! The prices are not ‘jacked up’ or ‘raised’. Why pedal this nonsense? 
    So if the end consumer is paying more out of pocket that’s not a price increase? 
  • Reply 58 of 78
    DAalseth said:
    DAalseth said:
    DAalseth said:
    Though I have a healthy degree of skepticism toward analysts projections, this one rings true for me.
    But I think it's not Apple's fault. Rather I think this is part of a much larger swing in the economy. With GM, and trade spats even with friendly counties, and budget deficits, and all sorts of things, I think a lot of people are frightened. Frightened people don't splurge on a $1k phone if the old one is still working. But then they also won't splurge on cars, or stereos, or expensive home furnishings. I suspect this will be a disappointing quarter for Apple, along with the rest of the economy. I've talked to a lot of people who are holding their wallets close, loved ones closer, and are just keeping it simple this year. 
    Personal experience isn’t something that can be argued, however Apple has always made products for the price-insensitive and that hasn’t changed.
    That works when times are good. But when people expect, or are seeing, times get bad the number who are price insensitive drops dramatically. 
    On the other hand, how are times bad right now? The number of employed in the US is at a 40-50 year high right now and wages are going up, not down. Yes, the stock market is violently fluctuating, but that’s the stock market.
    Ask the people who used to work for GM, or Minnesota #oybean farmers who’ve lost their upcoming sales to China. Times are okay now. I was refering to spring ‘19. I know of a lot of people who are worried about where the economy is going. They are the ones who are holding back on big discretionary purchases. We won’t know however until January when the holiday sales are announced.
    Well, since negotiations between the US and China are still in progress, it’s too soon to say what 2019 will look like. I’m not saying there aren’t people whose lives have been disrupted, mind you.
  • Reply 59 of 78
    The mark of a good writer is to make himself easily understood without ambiguity. While I understand that AI cannot reproduce the note due to copyright reasons, surely the article could've been re-written to give a clearer picture of what it's all about. A simple table showing projections of iPhone Xr vs overall iPhone shipments, original vs current predictions, would've been way more helpful.
  • Reply 60 of 78
    jungmarkjungmark Posts: 6,927member
    clarker99 said:
    jdgaz said:
    Until Tim Cook says something other than what he said on the earnings call I do not believe any of this baloney.
    I normally wouldn’t either but the fact that Apple is aggressively pushing their trade-in program and even increased trade-in values by $100 makes me think there might be something to these rumors. Nothing like this was on the front page of Apple’s website last year or any year before that.

    Maybe they’re all getting the supply chain completely wrong. Wouldn’t be the firs time. Or maybe consumers are balking at the higher prices. A couple years ago the flagship iPhone started at $649. Now it’s $999. That’s not nothing. 
    Lets look at facts not rhetoric.
    Apple’s gross margins have been more or less the same since Steve’s time untill now.
     That says it all, period. ( public record… go check it )
    All this talk about ‘Apple is greedy this, greedy that, is just BS talk from the unreasonably disgruntled individuals.. and competition’s negative propaganda....and shorts....Thats all.
     Apple has been a higher priced brand and still is…. nothing has changed.

     Plus...Old commoditized electronics or in general products becomes cheaper in time.
    But Not New Cutting Edge Tehnology! The massive R&D expenses both in product and production equipment …and ramp up cost dont just evaporate in thin air.
     So lets stop this Apple bashing fad. Apple has phones from 449$ to 1500$.
     Pick the one that offers the proper value proposition for you.
     
    PS..
     iPhone 7 128, when it was first released sold for 749$ 2 years or so later it is selling for 449$..
     As you can see in black and white ..the old got cheaper .. by 40 %.
    Fact though is prices on flagship phones have gone up. Is price a consideration at all when Apple is designing new products. I think it should be a factor. I wish Apple would have found a way to get the new MacBook Air at a $999 starting price. Also the competition isn’t garbage anymore. Certainly not the hardware. So Apple has to work harder to justify the price premium.
    The gross margin % hasnt moved! The prices are not ‘jacked up’ or ‘raised’. Why pedal this nonsense? 
    So if the end consumer is paying more out of pocket that’s not a price increase? 
    It’s a price increase but would you rather pay more for a superior product or pay the same for a phone with more compromises. The latter may work with ice cream (1.5 quarts instead of 2) and OJ (59 oz instead of 64), but it doesn't work right with the iPhone. 
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