Apple's guidance correction in China would be great news from Samsung

245

Comments

  • Reply 21 of 84
    sirozhasirozha Posts: 801member
    Anyone can explain to me why Apple spent $43.5 billion in the first half of 2018 on buybacks and probably the same amount in the second half of 2018? What were those buybacks trying to achieve? Higher stock price? Delivering value to the shareholders? Wow, that REALLY DIDN'T WORK, did it? 

    As Tesla was about to fold earlier in 2018, wouldn't it have been a better idea to spend about $72 billion to buy Tesla at the price that Musk set ($420/share) when Musk tweeted the infamous "funding 
    secured" statement. If I were Tim Cook, I would have taken a 30-minute drive to visit Musk in Fremont, CA in August 2018 and offered him the funding and the position of the head of the Apple automotive division. Apple could have used another $28 billion or so to ramp up the Model 3 production volume (maybe at a cheaper price). Tim Cook would have had a solid "next best thing" in the Apple's pipeline by now with still over $100 billion of cash left in the bank.

    What we got instead is the tremendous downward slide in the share price, huge hit on the shareholders, and nothing to show for the AAPL buybacks.

    How am I benefiting as a shareholder from Tim Cook having blown $100 billion on AAPL buybacks in 2018?
    edited January 2019 gatorguyelijahg
  • Reply 22 of 84
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 7,625member
    This is very short sighted:

    "Huawei and other Android makers are now working to develop their own internal chips, but these are also significantly behind Apple's work in advancing the state of the art. And the primary reason is that Apple has been selling virtually all of the high-end devices that make money and create a demand for even faster chips in the future. Not just smartphones, but critically also high-end tablets-- a market Apple has effectively owned since it launched iPad a decade ago."

    Huawei is working on numerous fronts and at a very high level. The state of the art isn't limited to a smartphone processor.

    That's why Huawei has its own in-house designed WiFi chipset (Hi1103) which is the fastest mobile wifi chipset on the market. It has its own 5G modem. Its own storage media (which it will open to the industry). Its own AI hardware (Ascend) Excellent battery technology and charging etc:

    https://www.theregister.co.uk/2017/12/15/huawei_developing_scmera_storage_system/

    https://medium.com/syncedreview/huawei-leaps-into-ai-announces-powerful-chips-and-ml-framework-f9aa6ec87bcb

    https://www.itproportal.com/news/huawei-unveils-new-ai-powered-server-chips/

    http://www.hisilicon.com/en/Products/ProductList/Balong

    Etc.

    Of course, if 5W battery chargers are state of the art, I stand corrected.






    edited January 2019 elijahgmuthuk_vanalingammazda 3s
  • Reply 23 of 84
    FolioFolio Posts: 698member
    Nice piece. We easily forget that even as iPhone matures what truly differentiates it is AppleWatch, AirPods, etc etc. The ecosystem differentiator will only get larger over time. (Walled Garden with its niche connotations will be seen as a misleading metaphor)
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 24 of 84
    entropysentropys Posts: 4,152member
    AirPods stand out because they basically are a product the product oriented old Apple would make. They are unusual in the profit oriented Apple of today.
    elijahg
  • Reply 25 of 84
    SpamSandwichSpamSandwich Posts: 33,407member
    May as well lock this thread now, because I’m about to unleash hell on this piece.
    You're welcome to opine, as we've lifted the restriction on political discussions for this thread. 

    However, the rest of the rules remain in place.
    I’m not going to be argumentative, but I will ask why this particular thread? Because the issues raised by the author are inherently political?
    muthuk_vanalingam
  • Reply 26 of 84
    FolioFolio Posts: 698member
    One nit. Yes, $123 B cash. But after $16 B to European Commission and $34 B for repatriation tax, Apple will have about $73B (roughly $15/share).
  • Reply 27 of 84
    entropysentropys Posts: 4,152member
    entropys said:
    It’s like Apple in the nineties again.
    A very good CEO once said this, covered in this very interesting reddit article:   
    ”What happened at Apple, to be honest, over the years was the goal used to be to make the best computers in the world. And that was goal one. Goal two, we got from Hewlett-Packard actually which was "we have to make a profit". Because if we don't make a profit we can't do goal one. So, yeah, I mean we enjoyed making a profit, but the purpose of making a profit was so we can make the best computers in the world. Along the way somewhere those two got reversed. The goal is to make a lot of money and well, if we have to make some good computers well ok we'll do that... 'cause we can make a lot of money doing that. And, it's very subtle. It's very subtle at first, but it turns out it's everything. That one little subtle flip... takes 5 years to see it, but that one little subtle flip in 5 years means everything.

    ....

    Lastly, we're really big on making computers our friends can afford, and not all our friends are Larry Ellison. So, we've got to make computers that are really affordable and I think that's another place that Apple got really off-track and we are just driving that really hard.”
    First off, Apple is 5x larger since Cook took over.

    Secondly, Steve Jobs said he won't allow Apple to ship cheap junk.

    Third, Apple still has the best computers. I cannot think of a company on Earth who sells premium products with the same marketshare as Apple. This says a lot. People are willing to save a months worth of work to buy an Apple product.

    Apple in the 90s was releasing junk and making no money.
    Used the new MBA’s FaceTime camera, Larry?
  • Reply 28 of 84
    rogifan_newrogifan_new Posts: 4,297member
    Here’s a good article that rationally discusses Apple’s current issues: https://500ish.com/apples-precarious-and-pivotal-2019-f4f8cea3993a
    mazda 3s
  • Reply 29 of 84
    FolioFolio Posts: 698member
    To those sensitive to prices or just out to get good deals, consider later this year you’ll likely be able to get iPhone X AND a new AppleWatch for less than US$900. As phones last longer, there are all kinds of opportunities for Apple to gain share and keep a wider range of customers content
    Deelronwatto_cobra
  • Reply 30 of 84
    rwx9901rwx9901 Posts: 100member
    Build your stuff here in the states.  

  • Reply 31 of 84
    I have tried using an iPad Pro for work related things. I am an information technology worker and only wanted it for email and some light stuff so I would not need a laptop in meetings. The lack of a mouse driven interface is a killer. The A series would be PERFECT for this if I was allowed to use a mouse. The DeX technology is half-baked on Samsung tablets and phones but it at least shows an effort to do something. Apple would crush Samsung's effort and truly open the iPad up as a capable work device if they tried something like this. Doesn't need to be MacOS, just something where I can use a mouse to navigate and minimize apps. Another sign of playing it slow and steady for no real reason.
    As you’re an information technology worker I would have thought that you would know that the iPad, since it’s release 9 years ago, has never had support for a mouse. It’s lack is clearly then not “a killer”.

    Apple has never been into releasing something “half-baked” just to show that they are “doing something”.

    Also, if you “only wanted it for email and some light stuff”, what on Earth are you trying to do that the iPad does not support?
    I was aware it didn't support a mouse. Like I said, I tried it and realized that without a mouse it does not cut it. After billions in R&D I would have thought they could come up with something that makes this more work-capable. As for what I do, I don't know, crazy stuff like trying to highlight some text easily and change the font. My point is that this device has a processor far more capable than what Apple allows one to do with it outside of gaming and graphics. 
  • Reply 32 of 84
    sirozhasirozha Posts: 801member
    entropys said:
    entropys said:
    It’s like Apple in the nineties again.
    A very good CEO once said this, covered in this very interesting reddit article:   
    ”What happened at Apple, to be honest, over the years was the goal used to be to make the best computers in the world. And that was goal one. Goal two, we got from Hewlett-Packard actually which was "we have to make a profit". Because if we don't make a profit we can't do goal one. So, yeah, I mean we enjoyed making a profit, but the purpose of making a profit was so we can make the best computers in the world. Along the way somewhere those two got reversed. The goal is to make a lot of money and well, if we have to make some good computers well ok we'll do that... 'cause we can make a lot of money doing that. And, it's very subtle. It's very subtle at first, but it turns out it's everything. That one little subtle flip... takes 5 years to see it, but that one little subtle flip in 5 years means everything.

    ....

    Lastly, we're really big on making computers our friends can afford, and not all our friends are Larry Ellison. So, we've got to make computers that are really affordable and I think that's another place that Apple got really off-track and we are just driving that really hard.”
    First off, Apple is 5x larger since Cook took over.

    Secondly, Steve Jobs said he won't allow Apple to ship cheap junk.

    Third, Apple still has the best computers. I cannot think of a company on Earth who sells premium products with the same marketshare as Apple. This says a lot. People are willing to save a months worth of work to buy an Apple product.

    Apple in the 90s was releasing junk and making no money.
    Used the new MBA’s FaceTime camera, Larry?
    It's awful. But, it's not just in the 2018 MBA. It's also in the 2018 13" MBP and 15" MBP. Same awful quality. I've verified it with an Apple Sr. Advisor a few days ago. He told me his wife told him to stop using his 2018 MBP to FaceTime her. 

    I almost returned the 2018 MBA. I already got an RMA from B&H, but I decided to keep it. It's an incredible machine IMHO except for the camera. 

    I thought the dual-core CPU would cause it to be slow, beach-ball, etc., but it actually really surprised me. I can run two VMs concurrently on it (Windows 10 and Ubuntu 16.4) and the performance is still very decent. I got the 16 GB RAM and 512 GB SSD version. 

    I also LOVE the keyboard. After all those horror stories that I've read about the keyboard, I actually like it a lot better than the scissor-key keyboard. I can type about 30% faster on this keyboard, and I was already a fast touch-typist. 
    edited January 2019 watto_cobra
  • Reply 33 of 84
    tzeshantzeshan Posts: 2,351member
    Apple should lower its profit margin from 40% to 30%. This is a 25% reduction. That means the XS will sell for $750. There are numerous positive effects. I do not have to elaborate. Most importantly Apple can squeeze out more Android copycats. And this will have a positive effect on AAPL. Because investors will feel Apple is more competitive and give a high pe to AAPL. 
    designrmuthuk_vanalingammagman1979
  • Reply 34 of 84
    Such a reasoned argument will be totally ignored by those who speak out of their backsides (i.e. Anal-ists) on Wall St.
    Like Tesla, Apple is in their eyes doomed and will be 'Bankwupt' within a year.

    Trump must be loving this. He will see that his trade war is almost won (false but...)
    MAGA is in his eyes all but done but he'd like to see two US Icons go to the wall. One because of the politics of the CEO and the other because the make Electric Cars.
    All it needs now is for Apple to reveal their own EV and he'll implode (only joking)

    Never mind, the darling of Wall St, i.e. AMZN will save the world. /s

    All he needs to do now is to get those on the hill to approve spending billions on a Wall that
    1) Won't work
    2) and how will he get Mexico to pay for it as he clearly said several times.


    magman1979
  • Reply 35 of 84
    SpamSandwichSpamSandwich Posts: 33,407member
    By the way, Tim better cancel his travel plans:

    U.S. State Department issues a warning to Americans wanting to travel to China: "Chinese authorities have asserted broad authority to prohibit U.S. citizens from leaving China by using ‘exit bans,’ sometimes keeping U.S. citizens in China for years."

    magman1979watto_cobra
  • Reply 36 of 84
    radarthekatradarthekat Posts: 3,842moderator
    There’s two ends of a spectrum when it comes to reactions to DED’s articles, and these ends of the spectrum and views generally on Apple’s prospects tend to match up well.  

    On one end of the spectrum exist those who look at the immediate timeframe - what’s happening right now - and make an assessment of the company and it’s future based upon what they see.  These folks are highly reactive, swayed by emotion perhaps.  Armchair quarterbacks tossing out desperation plays in the first quarter because the Patriots are down by 17.  We know how that has often turned out; how many Super Bowl rings do Brady and Belichick share?

    At the other end of the spectrum reside those with a longer view.  These are the folks, like some here in this thread, like myself and like Warren Buffett, who never advocated Apple purchase Netflix or Tesla (history will show whether we were correct or foolish, but that history is not yet written), who understand the rationale behind share repurchases and that it’s a very long game strategy, who see innovation where others seemingly cannot (to what must these folks attribute the incredible success of the iPhone over ten years if it doesn’t actually stand above the copycats?), and who can project forward to see the potential that exists for Apple in enormous markets, like health and transportation.  And we also understand, regarding disruptions like 2008 and today’s trade war, that ‘this too shall pass.’  

    Sadly, like religious or political extremes, there is scant bridge connecting the two ends of this spectrum of views.  But history favors the long view.  
    edited January 2019 tmaymagman1979watto_cobra
  • Reply 37 of 84
    tjwolftjwolf Posts: 424member
    tylersdad said:
    That was then, this is now.

    Back then, nearly every new generation of phone brought with it exciting features. That's not really the case now. New phones pretty much get you a faster version of the old phone you're currently using. For all but the hardcore enthusiast, this just isn't enough to spend $1200 every two years on a new phone. 

    I'm not saying Apple won't survive. They obviously will. But I really doubt that they will reach the sales heights they once did unless they truly begin to innovate again or price their products more reasonably. Faster just isn't good enough anymore. And adding features that 99.9% of us don't need isn't helping. 
    The innovation has moved from the iPhone itself to the pieces that integrate with it: the watch, the headphones, and soon the glasses.  The 'faster version' itself is not what's going to drive future sales of iPhones - it's that the faster speed of the iPhone will allow for better experiences with the wearables (e.g. faster CPU/GPU, better AR experience with your future AR glasses).

    tmaywatto_cobra
  • Reply 38 of 84
    jcs2305jcs2305 Posts: 1,336member
    entropys said:
    It’s price. The second thing is price.
    The other thing is if you are a patriotic Chinese person you will buy your very decent iPhone knockoff made by a Chinese company instead of an American company’s product that costs twice as much. One of the reasons that is so, is those Chinese companies don’t respect IP. You can chose to try and stop that, or not.
    So I understand.. It was a record quarter, but the Chinese market specifically is having a problem with iPhone prices?

    In the letter Cook specifically highlighted China, noting that the entirety of Apple's revenue shortfall can be traced to the country.

    He also however blamed factors like a strong U.S. dollar, fewer carrier subsidies, and even people taking advantage of discounted battery replacements, which some saw as an admission that the company depends on degraded batteries to spur upgrades.


    The above is from the earlier article where Tim promised that Apple will learn? What I don't get is how the entirety of the shortfall was because of China, but it was also the strong US dollar, fewer subsidies...and BATTERY REPLACEMENTS?  Like ...seriously?

    His excuse sounds like bullshit to me... and to even mention the battery replacement price reduction is just plain dumb, after all the backlash from the supposed planned obsolescence narrative people we screaming form the mountain tops! Haha  Sheesh...

    I am just an Apple fan and don't own stock but this just sounds weak, and possibly the start of a bigger issue.  I have defended the prices many times since last year ( iPhone X release )  and also purchased an XS Max on launch day, but come on! If the price is the issue fix it NOW.  I for one won't be mad if prices drop next release. B)



    muthuk_vanalingam
  • Reply 39 of 84
    avon b7 said:
    This is very short sighted:

    "Huawei and other Android makers are now working to develop their own internal chips, but these are also significantly behind Apple's work in advancing the state of the art. And the primary reason is that Apple has been selling virtually all of the high-end devices that make money and create a demand for even faster chips in the future. Not just smartphones, but critically also high-end tablets-- a market Apple has effectively owned since it launched iPad a decade ago."

    Huawei is working on numerous fronts and at a very high level. The state of the art isn't limited to a smartphone processor.

    That's why Huawei has its own in-house designed WiFi chipset (Hi1103) which is the fastest mobile wifi chipset on the market. It has its own 5G modem. Its own storage media (which it will open to the industry). Its own AI hardware (Ascend) Excellent battery technology and charging etc:




    More BS from you-know-who.

    It’s hilarious watching you try and shift the narrative yet again by claiming there’s more to devices than their processor, thereby trying to diminish Apples achievements in this area (which are FAR ahead of Huawei and everyone else).

    And it’s not the first time you’ve tried this.

    Sorry, but the processor is the single most important and most difficult component to create. It’s why Huawei doesn’t actually design their processor and uses off-the-shelf ARM
    cores instead. You know what else Huawei processors lack? NVMe (which Apple has had for over 3 years now) and in-line hardware encryption (which Apple has had for 8 years).

    On a related note, where is Huawei’s operating systems? Have they created a world class desktop and mobile OS? Nope. Where’s their workstation class file system to compete with APFS? Are you even aware of the incredible amount of effort required to create a file system? Shall I keep going?


    All the other components you mentioned are commodity parts that multiple manufacturers make. Apple doesn’t need to waste time creating their own when they can buy ready made versions. Except for the processor, which has the single biggest impact in device performance.

    Regardless of whether these other Huawei initiatives are any good (I doubt you even understand the topics discussed in the articles you linked), it’s all irrelevant anyway. Huawei can pour all the money into cloud and related infrastructure they want, but good luck finding anyone to trust them and use their products outside China.
    edited January 2019 macxpressmagman1979Rayz2016watto_cobra
  • Reply 40 of 84
    bellsbells Posts: 140member
    tylersdad said:
    That was then, this is now.

    Back then, nearly every new generation of phone brought with it exciting features. That's not really the case now. New phones pretty much get you a faster version of the old phone you're currently using. For all but the hardcore enthusiast, this just isn't enough to spend $1200 every two years on a new phone. 

    I'm not saying Apple won't survive. They obviously will. But I really doubt that they will reach the sales heights they once did unless they truly begin to innovate again or price their products more reasonably. Faster just isn't good enough anymore. And adding features that 99.9% of us don't need isn't helping. 
    Bs. Apple introduced the so called “s” update cycle I think as far back as the iPhone 3. During the “s” cycle upgrade cycle Apple has focused on performance upgrades not major new features or design refreshes. The s was said to stand for speed. Many commentators have  historically called these s upgrades uninnovative despite blowing competitors away each time with performance improvements. The XS Is the so called boring upgrade cycle. Mostly speed improvements over the X. The X was the introduction of Face ID and near edge to edge display which clearly is innovative. Assuming Apple sticks to the normal schedule Apple next year should introduce a major new so called flashy feature.

    Part of the reason many love Apple is it isn’t rushing out untested updates of major new features. Apple doesn’t want to be Samsung and recall its entire show case product because of faulty engineering and testing (aka the Galaxy mess). 

    Ive upgraded this year to the XS Max from an iPhone 7. It is ridiculous to say Apple isn’t innovating. The XS blows sway my brand new Windows laptop I’m forced to use at work. Typing is so smooth and nothing brings the phone to a crawl. Face ID with the increased related camera features is amazing. 

    With promotion I received a 390 credit for my iPhone 7. I pay the rest off monthly no interest for three years. I could have received the XR for free via a carrier promotion. So it seems ridiculous to say the iPhone isn’t affordable for most people.

    Accept in some developing markets, like China and India, Apple gained market share. I agree though that Apple’s growth for phones sales will likely slow because the market is only so big. I have family members who still use a flip phone.

    Lack of innovation and cost are not Apple’s problem though. Further, Apple’s innovation this year can easily be seen in the Apple Watch. Apple is spending a ton of money on medical research.
    fastasleepmagman1979watto_cobra
Sign In or Register to comment.