Apple lowers holiday quarter guidance on lower than expected iPhone sales

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Comments

  • Reply 281 of 294
    Considering the only things they announced at the two keynotes all had price increases... the macs of which were both 5 years old on there previous models (sales had likely hit rock bottom on them).

    Of course Tim Cook won’t admit it, but those making products actually attractive to buyers will increase sales.
    Mercedes Benz doesnt’ make cars to compete with Hyundai and Apple doesn’t pursue the low end of their market. They are a premium brand.
    China is the #1 market for Ferrari, Lamborghini, Rolls Royce, and all other luxury bands so this does not bother you that Apple in China is losing market share to “so called” cheaper brands?  Apple a premium brand claim is debatable since most middle and upper class Chinese are no longer buying the iphone opting for high-end Chinese models
  • Reply 282 of 294
    k2kwk2kw Posts: 2,073member
    Considering the only things they announced at the two keynotes all had price increases... the macs of which were both 5 years old on there previous models (sales had likely hit rock bottom on them).

    Of course Tim Cook won’t admit it, but those making products actually attractive to buyers will increase sales.
    Mercedes Benz doesnt’ make cars to compete with Hyundai and Apple doesn’t pursue the low end of their market. They are a premium brand.
    So you want Apple to be like MB and have less than 3% of the U.S.   Auto market   Apple will definitely lose profits as they shed market share then.
    muthuk_vanalingam
  • Reply 283 of 294
    trumptmantrumptman Posts: 16,464member
    Considering the only things they announced at the two keynotes all had price increases... the macs of which were both 5 years old on there previous models (sales had likely hit rock bottom on them).

    Of course Tim Cook won’t admit it, but those making products actually attractive to buyers will increase sales.
    Mercedes Benz doesnt’ make cars to compete with Hyundai and Apple doesn’t pursue the low end of their market. They are a premium brand.
    That's true but when they don't include tires on their car and demand you only purchase their fuel which at some point becomes 200% higher than normal gasoline then at some point premium becomes boutique and people stop buying.
    muthuk_vanalingamavon b7
  • Reply 284 of 294
    Hint Apple: Don't sell phones for $1500 or airpods for $175... there comes a breaking point when people will start saying no and move to cheap android alternatives for a quarter of the price.. 
    Totally agree. I am personally more than willing to invest in advanced products (and spent countless 1000 dollars on Apple over the years), but there is a threshold Apple starts to ignore and where they start losing more and more people. There is only so much you consider a phone to do, making it more expensive than an even large Mac misses the point. And by doing so and just leaving the “old” product versions for people not willing to spend the dollars for every single bit of latest tech makes them surely frustrated; at least it does me. I would wish for a smaller formfactor, having the most important functions state-of-the-art with the latest design for a price that is in the area of 500 to 750. 
  • Reply 285 of 294
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 6,425member
    mylovino said:
    Hint Apple: Don't sell phones for $1500 or airpods for $175... there comes a breaking point when people will start saying no and move to cheap android alternatives for a quarter of the price.. 
    Totally agree. I am personally more than willing to invest in advanced products (and spent countless 1000 dollars on Apple over the years), but there is a threshold Apple starts to ignore and where they start losing more and more people. There is only so much you consider a phone to do, making it more expensive than an even large Mac misses the point. And by doing so and just leaving the “old” product versions for people not willing to spend the dollars for every single bit of latest tech makes them surely frustrated; at least it does me. I would wish for a smaller formfactor, having the most important functions state-of-the-art with the latest design for a price that is in the area of 500 to 750. 
    IMO, you are right but there were massive changes in Apple's iPhone business model in 2017.

    They added a third model (but at a very high price) and left us with the largest product spread in their history.

    It was definitely one if the options they had to try and logically it had to be the first one they had to go with. I have no complaints with that.

    However, I didn't bite for the same reasons you didn't. While Apple tried to sell us on the success of its 'most popular' model, it rang out of steam quickly. It was withdrawn with the introduction of the 2018 refresh and apparently not even mentioned in the last earnings call. The more people that hold off the more difficult things get. iPhone still represents a big chunk of Apple revenues and three years of flat sales must have raised eyebrows at some point. That is probably what provoked the changes in 2017. The problem is that Apple is now facing just about every kind of headwind imaginable and at the same time, and in a saturated market which its own users aren't even buying into (sales will probably go from flat into negative numbers).

    If the 2017 business model shift (iPhone) was one of the options they had open to them and they used it, they now have the other option which would be more dramatic and exactly what you suggest: releasing more truly new models every year.

    That would represent a major change for the company so I'd wager the simplest option will appear before we come to that one: price adjustments.

    I think we'll see more promotions and lower prices first.
    edited January 2019
  • Reply 286 of 294
    avon b7 said:
    mylovino said:
    Hint Apple: Don't sell phones for $1500 or airpods for $175... there comes a breaking point when people will start saying no and move to cheap android alternatives for a quarter of the price.. 
    Totally agree. I am personally more than willing to invest in advanced products (and spent countless 1000 dollars on Apple over the years), but there is a threshold Apple starts to ignore and where they start losing more and more people. There is only so much you consider a phone to do, making it more expensive than an even large Mac misses the point. And by doing so and just leaving the “old” product versions for people not willing to spend the dollars for every single bit of latest tech makes them surely frustrated; at least it does me. I would wish for a smaller formfactor, having the most important functions state-of-the-art with the latest design for a price that is in the area of 500 to 750. 
    IMO, you are right but there were massive changes in Apple's iPhone business model in 2017.

    They added a third model (but at a very high price) and left us with the largest product spread in their history.

    It was definitely one if the options they had to try and logically it had to be the first one they had to go with. I have no complaints with that.

    However, I didn't bite for the same reasons you didn't. While Apple tried to sell us on the success of its 'most popular' model, it rang out of steam quickly. It was withdrawn with the introduction of the 2018 refresh and apparently not even mentioned in the last earnings call. The more people that hold off the more difficult things get. iPhone still represents a big chunk of Apple revenues and three years of flat sales must have raised eyebrows at some point. That is probably what provoked the changes in 2017. The problem is that Apple is now facing just about every kind of headwind imaginable and at the same time, and in a saturated market which its own users aren't even buying into (sales will probably go from flat into negative numbers).

    If the 2017 business model shift (iPhone) was one of the options they had open to them and they used it, they now have the other option which would be more dramatic and exactly what you suggest: releasing more truly new models every year.

    That would represent a major change for the company so I'd wager the simplest option will appear before we come to that one: price adjustments.

    I think we'll see more promotions and lower prices first.


    Avon - One mistake they did in 2018 is to pull out the iPhone SE from lineup (at least in key markets) without having a replacement. Hence undoing some of the good work (offering largest spread) they did in 2017.

    Another point - You mentioned "sales will probably go from flat into negative numbers", implying it would happen in future. No, it has already happened, that too in the holiday quarter (supposed to be the best one for Apple). And it was clearly mentioned that iPhone sales is the ONLY reason for reduction in revenue for holiday quarter (even considering the lower end guidance) by $5 billion. With ever increasing ASPs, the revenue should have increased by at least 5% for iPhones alone even with FLAT unit sales. But there seems to be 10%+ reduction in iPhones revenue alone. That means, there is a double digit reduction in unit sales for iPhones in holiday quarter. Not sure, how China alone would have contributed to this much reduction in unit sales. Need to wait for more details in the quarterly earnings call, before making further comments on this.

    baconstang
  • Reply 287 of 294
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 6,425member
    avon b7 said:
    mylovino said:
    Hint Apple: Don't sell phones for $1500 or airpods for $175... there comes a breaking point when people will start saying no and move to cheap android alternatives for a quarter of the price.. 
    Totally agree. I am personally more than willing to invest in advanced products (and spent countless 1000 dollars on Apple over the years), but there is a threshold Apple starts to ignore and where they start losing more and more people. There is only so much you consider a phone to do, making it more expensive than an even large Mac misses the point. And by doing so and just leaving the “old” product versions for people not willing to spend the dollars for every single bit of latest tech makes them surely frustrated; at least it does me. I would wish for a smaller formfactor, having the most important functions state-of-the-art with the latest design for a price that is in the area of 500 to 750. 
    IMO, you are right but there were massive changes in Apple's iPhone business model in 2017.

    They added a third model (but at a very high price) and left us with the largest product spread in their history.

    It was definitely one if the options they had to try and logically it had to be the first one they had to go with. I have no complaints with that.

    However, I didn't bite for the same reasons you didn't. While Apple tried to sell us on the success of its 'most popular' model, it rang out of steam quickly. It was withdrawn with the introduction of the 2018 refresh and apparently not even mentioned in the last earnings call. The more people that hold off the more difficult things get. iPhone still represents a big chunk of Apple revenues and three years of flat sales must have raised eyebrows at some point. That is probably what provoked the changes in 2017. The problem is that Apple is now facing just about every kind of headwind imaginable and at the same time, and in a saturated market which its own users aren't even buying into (sales will probably go from flat into negative numbers).

    If the 2017 business model shift (iPhone) was one of the options they had open to them and they used it, they now have the other option which would be more dramatic and exactly what you suggest: releasing more truly new models every year.

    That would represent a major change for the company so I'd wager the simplest option will appear before we come to that one: price adjustments.

    I think we'll see more promotions and lower prices first.


    Avon - One mistake they did in 2018 is to pull out the iPhone SE from lineup (at least in key markets) without having a replacement. Hence undoing some of the good work (offering largest spread) they did in 2017.

    Another point - You mentioned "sales will probably go from flat into negative numbers", implying it would happen in future. No, it has already happened, that too in the holiday quarter (supposed to be the best one for Apple). And it was clearly mentioned that iPhone sales is the ONLY reason for reduction in revenue for holiday quarter (even considering the lower end guidance) by $5 billion. With ever increasing ASPs, the revenue should have increased by at least 5% for iPhones alone even with FLAT unit sales. But there seems to be 10%+ reduction in iPhones revenue alone. That means, there is a double digit reduction in unit sales for iPhones in holiday quarter. Not sure, how China alone would have contributed to this much reduction in unit sales. Need to wait for more details in the quarterly earnings call, before making further comments on this.

    Yes, although I'm not a fan of small phones, I think there is a market for an updated SE style phone. It can still be purchased in select Apple retailers in Spain but it's too long in the tooth to be a good purchase. Similar to the iPad Mini 4.

    Regarding a drop in iPhone unit sales I was referring to the future in the context of the next earnings call, so, as you point out, that's the current 'blowout' quarter, although Apple won't be giving the unit sales.
  • Reply 288 of 294
    avon b7 said:
    avon b7 said:
    mylovino said:
    Hint Apple: Don't sell phones for $1500 or airpods for $175... there comes a breaking point when people will start saying no and move to cheap android alternatives for a quarter of the price.. 
    Totally agree. I am personally more than willing to invest in advanced products (and spent countless 1000 dollars on Apple over the years), but there is a threshold Apple starts to ignore and where they start losing more and more people. There is only so much you consider a phone to do, making it more expensive than an even large Mac misses the point. And by doing so and just leaving the “old” product versions for people not willing to spend the dollars for every single bit of latest tech makes them surely frustrated; at least it does me. I would wish for a smaller formfactor, having the most important functions state-of-the-art with the latest design for a price that is in the area of 500 to 750. 
    IMO, you are right but there were massive changes in Apple's iPhone business model in 2017.

    They added a third model (but at a very high price) and left us with the largest product spread in their history.

    It was definitely one if the options they had to try and logically it had to be the first one they had to go with. I have no complaints with that.

    However, I didn't bite for the same reasons you didn't. While Apple tried to sell us on the success of its 'most popular' model, it rang out of steam quickly. It was withdrawn with the introduction of the 2018 refresh and apparently not even mentioned in the last earnings call. The more people that hold off the more difficult things get. iPhone still represents a big chunk of Apple revenues and three years of flat sales must have raised eyebrows at some point. That is probably what provoked the changes in 2017. The problem is that Apple is now facing just about every kind of headwind imaginable and at the same time, and in a saturated market which its own users aren't even buying into (sales will probably go from flat into negative numbers).

    If the 2017 business model shift (iPhone) was one of the options they had open to them and they used it, they now have the other option which would be more dramatic and exactly what you suggest: releasing more truly new models every year.

    That would represent a major change for the company so I'd wager the simplest option will appear before we come to that one: price adjustments.

    I think we'll see more promotions and lower prices first.


    Avon - One mistake they did in 2018 is to pull out the iPhone SE from lineup (at least in key markets) without having a replacement. Hence undoing some of the good work (offering largest spread) they did in 2017.

    Another point - You mentioned "sales will probably go from flat into negative numbers", implying it would happen in future. No, it has already happened, that too in the holiday quarter (supposed to be the best one for Apple). And it was clearly mentioned that iPhone sales is the ONLY reason for reduction in revenue for holiday quarter (even considering the lower end guidance) by $5 billion. With ever increasing ASPs, the revenue should have increased by at least 5% for iPhones alone even with FLAT unit sales. But there seems to be 10%+ reduction in iPhones revenue alone. That means, there is a double digit reduction in unit sales for iPhones in holiday quarter. Not sure, how China alone would have contributed to this much reduction in unit sales. Need to wait for more details in the quarterly earnings call, before making further comments on this.

    Yes, although I'm not a fan of small phones, I think there is a market for an updated SE style phone. It can still be purchased in select Apple retailers in Spain but it's too long in the tooth to be a good purchase. Similar to the iPad Mini 4.

    Regarding a drop in iPhone unit sales I was referring to the future in the context of the next earnings call, so, as you point out, that's the current 'blowout' quarter, although Apple won't be giving the unit sales.
    True, Apple won't be giving unit sales. But they will provide whole lot of other information (Revenue breakdown for iPhones, iPads, Macs, Services and so on), we can make reasonably educated guesses on what happened to the unit sales for iPhones, even with the limited information available. With the already available information and reading between the lines, my educated guess is that there is a double digit reduction in unit sales for iPhones overall. And that cannot be attributed to China alone.
  • Reply 289 of 294
    fastasleepfastasleep Posts: 6,176member
    Agree 100%. And with a new video service coming maybe Apple should get into the TV business. I know TVs are a low margin business but it wouldn’t be about the TV so much as about tvOS and Apple’s video service. Every time I go into Best Buy the busiest part of the store is their TV section. I have a 4K TCL TV with Roku. I hardly ever fire up my Apple TV box. But if Apple sold a smart TV with tvOS and all the benefits of the Apple ecosystem I’d seriously think about getting one. And it wouldnt have to be outrageously priced because it would be all about getting Apple video service subs.
    That makes zero sense. Whats's the difference between your TV plus an AppleTV versus an Apple-built TV with a built-in AppleTV? Nothing.
    Well, for one thing, an Apple Television would come with a ridiculously "minimalist" and annoying remote with no way to improve the experience because they will have locked out the use of any third party alternative.
    Except you can use 3rd party remotes with Apple TV. Nice try though.
  • Reply 290 of 294
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 6,425member
    Agree 100%. And with a new video service coming maybe Apple should get into the TV business. I know TVs are a low margin business but it wouldn’t be about the TV so much as about tvOS and Apple’s video service. Every time I go into Best Buy the busiest part of the store is their TV section. I have a 4K TCL TV with Roku. I hardly ever fire up my Apple TV box. But if Apple sold a smart TV with tvOS and all the benefits of the Apple ecosystem I’d seriously think about getting one. And it wouldnt have to be outrageously priced because it would be all about getting Apple video service subs.
    That makes zero sense. Whats's the difference between your TV plus an AppleTV versus an Apple-built TV with a built-in AppleTV? Nothing.
    Well, for one thing, an Apple Television would come with a ridiculously "minimalist" and annoying remote with no way to improve the experience because they will have locked out the use of any third party alternative.
    Except you can use 3rd party remotes with Apple TV. Nice try though.
    But why should anyone have to do that? Why can't it be the best possible experience out of the box?

    The remote on my ATV deserves all the criticism aimed at it.
    muthuk_vanalingam
  • Reply 291 of 294
    Well, for one thing, an Apple Television would come with a ridiculously "minimalist" and annoying remote with no way to improve the experience because they will have locked out the use of any third party alternative.
    Except you can use 3rd party remotes with Apple TV. Nice try though.
    Of course you can.  For now.

    But why should I have to?  
    gatorguymuthuk_vanalingam
  • Reply 292 of 294
    fastasleepfastasleep Posts: 6,176member
    avon b7 said:
    Agree 100%. And with a new video service coming maybe Apple should get into the TV business. I know TVs are a low margin business but it wouldn’t be about the TV so much as about tvOS and Apple’s video service. Every time I go into Best Buy the busiest part of the store is their TV section. I have a 4K TCL TV with Roku. I hardly ever fire up my Apple TV box. But if Apple sold a smart TV with tvOS and all the benefits of the Apple ecosystem I’d seriously think about getting one. And it wouldnt have to be outrageously priced because it would be all about getting Apple video service subs.
    That makes zero sense. Whats's the difference between your TV plus an AppleTV versus an Apple-built TV with a built-in AppleTV? Nothing.
    Well, for one thing, an Apple Television would come with a ridiculously "minimalist" and annoying remote with no way to improve the experience because they will have locked out the use of any third party alternative.
    Except you can use 3rd party remotes with Apple TV. Nice try though.
    But why should anyone have to do that? Why can't it be the best possible experience out of the box?

    The remote on my ATV deserves all the criticism aimed at it.
    Well, for one thing, an Apple Television would come with a ridiculously "minimalist" and annoying remote with no way to improve the experience because they will have locked out the use of any third party alternative.
    Except you can use 3rd party remotes with Apple TV. Nice try though.
    Of course you can.  For now.

    But why should I have to?  
    You don’t have to.
  • Reply 293 of 294
    jumejume Posts: 207member
    What did this guy expect?

    That people are going to exchange their 1 year old, 1200 USD phones for newer 1600 USD phones?

    Step down to reality bro. 
    edited January 2019
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