Appreciate DED on critique of what passes for Apple punditry, especially the swipe at Swisher. But not sure of the math regarding 200 M plus units and five year refresh. Seems to ignore iPads, Android switchers, new markets, and kids in Apple families coming of age. In other words, iOS not static at 1B but growing. Am I missing something?
The idea of about a billion users and around 200M iPhones sold per year since iPhone 6 is a generalization. The installed base figure has been growing (Apple said it added 100M in 2018), and total iPhones have grown too:
2016: 211.88M 2017: 216.76M 2018: 217.72M
But in general, it's clear that Apple expects to sell ~200M iPhones to its installed base and to switchers (some of whom straddle the line as Mac or iOS users with an Android; some users new to a smartphone, etc).
The point is that these numbers haven't radically changed each year for several years, and quite clearly Apple isn't expecting last years iPhone buyers to all or "mostly" jump to get an S upgrade. The ratio of users to buyers each year is about a fifth or 20%.
I’m a huge Apple fan, but instead of such a vitriolic and long-winded defense, maybe it would be best to examine the real benefits and challenges they are facing in the long term. What we need is balanced analysis, not more one-sided analysis. Also, it may worth Appleinsider’s while to fix commenting in the app, which is still buggy and does not work on my iPhone X.
“Greater China and other emerging markets accounted for the vast majority of the year-over-year iPhone revenue decline." [emphasis ours] “
However Apple weren’t guiding that they would be even with last year but that revenues would be from $1B to $5B higher. However revenue is in fact $4B lower. The real question is not the difference between this year and last, but these results and guidance only 60 days ago. China accounted for the vast majority of a $4B fall from last year but not the majority of the difference from guidance ($5B - $9B).
Have Android promoters never set foot in a store? Do they think nobody buys jeans anymore just because there isn't any apparent technical innovation occurring in pants-making? Do they imagine that nobody buys TVs anymore because everyone must already have one by now? Do they wonder why people buy shirts that cost more than the component fabric that occurs on the garment's bill of sale? What is it about Apple that turns the most mundane discussion of financials into an illogical tirade of hyperbolic derangement?
It’s not only dealing with Apple that journalists have difficulties, indeed the term Fake News was coined to describe when journalists band together to press a point that they know is false, and they don’t care. Note that Fake anews isn’t only incorrect, there has to also be a strong propaganda element.
Here's some more "oxymorons" I've noticed from the iKnockoff crowd:
"Apple is too expensive" But criticizes Apple for not adding more to the XR. Like how it needs a 1080p screen(for some reason), OLED etc. which would drive the price much higher.
"Planned obsolescence" Then continue to claim old iPhones are good enough and people don't see a reason to upgrade. WHAT. THE. FUCK??
"Apple isn't innovating anymore!" While completely dismissing the rest of the android world. Only Apple is tasked with the objective to "innovate". Everyone else's job is to just copy Apple.
"Five years ago, the Verge balked at the high price of iPhone 5s and offered recommendations for rival phones that aren't even supported today"
I went to the Apple store this week at the mall nearby, thinking I'll get there early, and yet 1/2 hour after they opened there was a line out the door. I asked about the trade in program, and what I needed to do beforehand (sign out of Apple Id and wipe the phone). Next week I'm trading in my beloved 5s for a XR. The 5s is perfectly functional except for a weak battery, which could easily be replaced, but the time has come to move on. Next month, it's the wife's turn, although her 6s is still brand new feeling (to me). Apple's products last a long time if cared for, and despite being expensive up front, hold their value and perform well far beyond competitors devices.
Here's some more "oxymorons" I've noticed from the iKnockoff crowd:
"Apple is too expensive" But criticizes Apple for not adding more to the XR. Like how it needs a 1080p screen(for some reason), OLED etc. which would drive the price much higher.
Ostrich and sand??? With the benefit of hindsight, it is now easy to figure out that Apple got it wrong with respect to features and pricing of Xr. Xr is supposed to be the successor to iPhone 8 plus, but it was a side grade (design and SoC upgraded, display and camera downgraded), not a proper upgrade. It still would have been fine if Apple had priced it accordingly. But that didn't happen, hence Apple trying hard with promotional offers to increase sales. And revenue shortage purely due to lack of iphone sales. To even deny these basic facts is to keep the head firmly in the sand like an ostrich.
AppleInsider said: “Tech reviewers think that they are representative of the public and that the mass market is keenly interested in chips and RAM or a photo feature Google is promoting. If that were the case, how has Apple been successfully selling a Product(Red) iPhone and iPod for all these years, and why isn't Pixel finding buyers?”
This is the part that gets me! I see all the YouTube "reviewers" giving great reviews for just about EVERY Android flagship that comes out, but how many of these phones are "sustainable"? Before, when Android phones had replaceable batteries, these same "reviewers" were all praising them and taking Apple to task for not having a user replaceable battery. Now that all of the current Android makers have followed suit, I don't hear any of these bloggers complaining now. Android phone makers are all building "disposable" phones that their users either don't bother to upgrade, or CAN'T upgrade due to their carrier restrictions, and let's not even talk about any type of battery replacement program: there isn't any Android maker that has one I don't believe. You certainly cannot walk into a Samsung store and ask to have your battery replaced while you wait.
I've never understood, going back to all the times Jobs did interviews with them, why Kara Swisher has any business writing about technology. She has consistently come across to me as a total luddite in interviews and her writing. Walt Mossberg was at least decent at writing about tech to the layperson audience, but Swisher just seems like a complete dullard to me in this area. It's baffling to me that the NYT went to her for a Betteridge headline about Apple, or why anyone listens to her at all.
In fairness, DED, we’ve seen a ~40% drop (from $232 to $142 in price per share) in the market cap of the most successful company in the world, the first one to hit a trillion dollar mark. Nearly $475B is market value has been wiped out.
Surely, some of the hyperventilation is justified?
I've never understood, going back to all the times Jobs did interviews with them, why Kara Swisher has any business writing about technology. She has consistently come across to me as a total luddite in interviews and her writing. Walt Mossberg was at least decent at writing about tech to the layperson audience, but Swisher just seems like a complete dullard to me in this area. It's baffling to me that the NYT went to her for a Betteridge headline about Apple, or why anyone listens to her at all.
More trends in Apple’s favor: relatively small worldwide marketshare; growing middle classes in China and India; maturing smartphones and urban magnets mean young folks more likely to buy up for premium phone, more so than say car or expensive clothes of days past.
Actually Apple may be long term screwed in China. They are a nationalistic people. China responding badly to Trumps threats could cause Apple huge problems, not just now but in the future.
You are correct, but also more specifically the arrest of the Huawei executive in Vancouver BC, as ordered by the US. Both US and Canada are now unfavourable to many nationalistic Chinese, for that simple reason.
I recently got a Huawei SmartHub (LTE connection) in my home. I didn't know it was this brand when I first ordered the service, and proceeded to cancel the order once I found out it was a Huawei device and they had two delivery failures. However, they still made a third attempt (after I cancelled) and I got the device, so I kept it. Works well, but we'll see if these get banned in Canada or not.
Kudos, ovations, back-slaps, toasts, twirly dancing and hee-haws for another brilliant takedown of the Apple-doom pundit puppetry!!
And: thanks, as always. That I'm aware of, it's just you, Gruber and the Macalope, consistently offering up hard-edged facts, cold reason and rationally-observed market reality against this lazy assemblage of smug 'experts' who haven't had an original thought about Apple in the last 25 years. Some of this recent stuff IMO has been libel- and slander-worthy (esp the Bloomberg China-chip crap), but I doubt Apple will ever dignify it by suing (maybe, though!). I suppose tho that the 90-95% of industry profits that they stuff in the bank every quarter is, really, the loudest, and bestest, last word.
Here's some more "oxymorons" I've noticed from the iKnockoff crowd:
"Apple is too expensive" But criticizes Apple for not adding more to the XR. Like how it needs a 1080p screen(for some reason), OLED etc. which would drive the price much higher.
Ostrich and sand??? With the benefit of hindsight, it is now easy to figure out that Apple got it wrong with respect to features and pricing of Xr. Xr is supposed to be the successor to iPhone 8 plus, but it was a side grade (design and SoC upgraded, display and camera downgraded), not a proper upgrade. It still would have been fine if Apple had priced it accordingly. But that didn't happen, hence Apple trying hard with promotional offers to increase sales. And revenue shortage purely due to lack of iphone sales. To even deny these basic facts is to keep the head firmly in the sand like an ostrich.
"Not a proper upgrade"
So you're asking for more? iPhone XR starting at $899? Better idea?
iPhone XR is the most popular iPhone right now(according to APPLE not the Verge or some fat youtuber). So not sure why you're denying the facts while giving your opinions?
...the problem of media that refuses to believe in facts and accept any reality that diverges from its faulty, perpetually wrong assumptions.
A decent article. But it always amuses me how Apple supporters (not a criticism, I am one also...) see media bias so clearly against Apple but it doesn’t occur to them the media does the exact same thing with politics. There are so few media outlets who have even a semblance of objective reporting. It’s a shame to say that the better ones just try to pass off their bias in an objective-sounding way.
How does it not occur to us? It’s just that this is an Apple focused site; talking about the media slant in other realms would seem out of place here, would it not?
Appreciate DED on critique of what passes for Apple punditry, especially the swipe at Swisher. But not sure of the math regarding 200 M plus units and five year refresh. Seems to ignore iPads, Android switchers, new markets, and kids in Apple families coming of age. In other words, iOS not static at 1B but growing. Am I missing something?
I think the math is a bit off too. If one out of five upgrade each year, as DED seemed to state, then the upgrades alone this year would account for the entire 200 million units sold and growth in the installed base would come only from hand me downs and used iPhone sales. That’s clearly not the case.
The 200 million is a combination of upgraders, switchers and new-to-smartphone consumers. Growth in the installed base comes from all three.
Upgraders themselves don’t increase the installed base, but many pass along or sell their old iPhone, while some retire the old iPhone to the recycle bin. Switchers and new-to-smartphone users all expand the installed base if they are buying new iPhones, but not if they are buying used.
Comments
2016: 211.88M
2017: 216.76M
2018: 217.72M
But in general, it's clear that Apple expects to sell ~200M iPhones to its installed base and to switchers (some of whom straddle the line as Mac or iOS users with an Android; some users new to a smartphone, etc).
The point is that these numbers haven't radically changed each year for several years, and quite clearly Apple isn't expecting last years iPhone buyers to all or "mostly" jump to get an S upgrade. The ratio of users to buyers each year is about a fifth or 20%.
However Apple weren’t guiding that they would be even with last year but that revenues would be from $1B to $5B higher. However revenue is in fact $4B lower. The real question is not the difference between this year and last, but these results and guidance only 60 days ago. China accounted for the vast majority of a $4B fall from last year but not the majority of the difference from guidance ($5B - $9B).
Bingo!
Here's some more "oxymorons" I've noticed from the iKnockoff crowd:
"Apple is too expensive"
But criticizes Apple for not adding more to the XR. Like how it needs a 1080p screen(for some reason), OLED etc. which would drive the price much higher.
"Planned obsolescence"
Then continue to claim old iPhones are good enough and people don't see a reason to upgrade.
WHAT. THE. FUCK??
"Apple isn't innovating anymore!"
While completely dismissing the rest of the android world. Only Apple is tasked with the objective to "innovate". Everyone else's job is to just copy Apple.
Those are just off the top of my head.
I went to the Apple store this week at the mall nearby, thinking I'll get there early, and yet 1/2 hour after they opened there was a line out the door. I asked about the trade in program, and what I needed to do beforehand (sign out of Apple Id and wipe the phone). Next week I'm trading in my beloved 5s for a XR. The 5s is perfectly functional except for a weak battery, which could easily be replaced, but the time has come to move on. Next month, it's the wife's turn, although her 6s is still brand new feeling (to me).
Apple's products last a long time if cared for, and despite being expensive up front, hold their value and perform well far beyond competitors devices.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge's_law_of_headlines
Surely, some of the hyperventilation is justified?
Couldn’t agree more.
She’s quite arrogant too, at least the way she comes through on television.
Is that Stage Right and Stage Left?
I actually enjoy these Editorials. They are usually chock full of common sense that is absent in today's media publications.
You are correct, but also more specifically the arrest of the Huawei executive in Vancouver BC, as ordered by the US. Both US and Canada are now unfavourable to many nationalistic Chinese, for that simple reason.
I recently got a Huawei SmartHub (LTE connection) in my home. I didn't know it was this brand when I first ordered the service, and proceeded to cancel the order once I found out it was a Huawei device and they had two delivery failures. However, they still made a third attempt (after I cancelled) and I got the device, so I kept it. Works well, but we'll see if these get banned in Canada or not.
And: thanks, as always. That I'm aware of, it's just you, Gruber and the Macalope, consistently offering up hard-edged facts, cold reason and rationally-observed market reality against this lazy assemblage of smug 'experts' who haven't had an original thought about Apple in the last 25 years. Some of this recent stuff IMO has been libel- and slander-worthy (esp the Bloomberg China-chip crap), but I doubt Apple will ever dignify it by suing (maybe, though!). I suppose tho that the 90-95% of industry profits that they stuff in the bank every quarter is, really, the loudest, and bestest, last word.
So you're asking for more? iPhone XR starting at $899? Better idea?
iPhone XR is the most popular iPhone right now(according to APPLE not the Verge or some fat youtuber). So not sure why you're denying the facts while giving your opinions?
I think the math is a bit off too. If one out of five upgrade each year, as DED seemed to state, then the upgrades alone this year would account for the entire 200 million units sold and growth in the installed base would come only from hand me downs and used iPhone sales. That’s clearly not the case.
The 200 million is a combination of upgraders, switchers and new-to-smartphone consumers. Growth in the installed base comes from all three.
Upgraders themselves don’t increase the installed base, but many pass along or sell their old iPhone, while some retire the old iPhone to the recycle bin. Switchers and new-to-smartphone users all expand the installed base if they are buying new iPhones, but not if they are buying used.
Same deal for iPad.