iPhone replacement cycles slowing down to four years, pose threat to services, analyst say...

1356789

Comments

  • Reply 41 of 166
    McJobs said:
    Tens of millions of iPhone 5/5s/5c/SE users won't upgrade their phones until there's another compact iPhone in the lineup again.
    Yeah, you keep thinking that.  No one is still using an iPhone 5 model and Apple only sold 3M iPhone SEs compared to 60M of all other model phones at the time.  So where do you come up with "Tens of millions" when Apple only sold 3M SE phones and then killed it because no one really wanted a tiny iPhone?  You do know that the iPhone 6/7/8/X is only about a half inch bigger than the SE?  Is your hand so small that you can't hold onto it?
    raybowatto_cobrafastasleep
  • Reply 42 of 166
    As the person in my family with an IT and Graphics Engineering background, the reality is that my wife and elder daughter are going to expect me to wall them through every idiosyncrasy of transitioning from Touch ID iPhones to Face ID iPhones, and this necessitates purchasing three iPhones at the same time, so you’re bloody well right that our purchase interval is going to be longer! At three phones a pop, even at a four year interval, that averages out to a year and four months per phone. Forgive me if I don’t care to buy three phones every other year!
  • Reply 43 of 166
    robbyx said:
    I think he's way off base.  First, we have no idea what future Apple devices will cost.  It's wrong to assume that Apple will continue to price higher.  
    Apple raised the prices of every product across the board.  Apple has no interest in lowering prices considering the first iPhone was $499 and $599 for full price and now the flagship model is over $1,000, even topping out at $1,449!  Sorry, but a phone should not have the same price point, or more, as a MacBook, MacBook Air, and MacBook Pro. The iPhone Xs is more expensive than a base model iMac!  With the mediocre updates to the Apple Watch, Mac mini, and MacBook Air, those products should have retained the same prices, as Apple had always done in the past.  Instead, Apple decided to price gouge and raise prices just because they wanted to.  So all Apple did was price their way out of people from upgrading sooner, and will now hold on to their devices for much longer, or look at the used market for an update.  I bit the bullet and upgraded my iPhone 7 Plus to an iPhone X in November 2017 because I wanted a larger screen with the smaller footprint.  Now that Apple has increased the price of the iPhones again, I have zero interest in upgrading until the iPhone X can no longer run the current version of iOS, which will be years from now.
  • Reply 44 of 166
    McJobs said:
    Tens of millions of iPhone 5/5s/5c/SE users won't upgrade their phones until there's another compact iPhone in the lineup again.
    Wrong... millions would at least upgrade to 6s and millions of others would upgrade to XR.  There isn’t much of a size increase.  Yes, there are some that want as small a form factor as possible, but it comes with a compromise in screen size as well... this is true for all brands of phones at this time.  
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 45 of 166
    drewys808 said:
    McJobs said:
    Tens of millions of iPhone 5/5s/5c/SE users won't upgrade their phones until there's another compact iPhone in the lineup again.
    Wrong... millions would at least upgrade to 6s and millions of others would upgrade to XR.  There isn’t much of a size increase.  Yes, there are some that want as small a form factor as possible, but it comes with a compromise in screen size as well... this is true for all brands of phones at this time.  
    I think you mean the Xs.  The XR is the same footprint as the 6/7/8 Plus models.
    edited February 8 muthuk_vanalingam
  • Reply 46 of 166

    tokyojimu said:
    FlyDog said:
    The replacement for a 6 is not an XS, it's an XR, which is around the same price as the 6 when it was released.
    Except that a XR is way too big and heavy compared to my 6. I wanted to get one. I really did. But the bulk and mass were just way too much, not to mention having to enter DongleTown if I want to use my headphones. So I've got my 6 for yet another year and Apple lost out on a sale.
    I think you’re in the extreme minority here.  The size difference is almost negligible, e.g. a 1/3” width difference.  Value of XR is well worth the upgrade.  I think it’s why it’s the best selling iPhone (of the current lineup).  
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 47 of 166
    wood1208 said:
    4 years replacement cycle sounds unreasonable. People go at most 2 1/2 to 3 years most.
    Folks like my mom continue to use iPhone 6 Plus. iOS 12 made it even better.  I could not convince her to upgrade.
  • Reply 48 of 166
    drewys808 said:
    McJobs said:
    Tens of millions of iPhone 5/5s/5c/SE users won't upgrade their phones until there's another compact iPhone in the lineup again.
    Wrong... millions would at least upgrade to 6s and millions of others would upgrade to XR.  There isn’t much of a size increase.  Yes, there are some that want as small a form factor as possible, but it comes with a compromise in screen size as well... this is true for all brands of phones at this time.  
    I think you mean the Xs.  The XR is the same footprint as the 6/7/8 Plus models.
    No. 
    Basically from smallest to largest:  6/7/8 then X/XS then XR. 

    Picking nits, but there is also a super small differences as well for 6/7/8... 6 smallest then 7 then 8. 

    Edit: sorry I missed that you said “plus”. You’re right.  But see my post below.  
    edited February 8 muthuk_vanalingam
  • Reply 49 of 166

    drewys808 said:
    McJobs said:
    Tens of millions of iPhone 5/5s/5c/SE users won't upgrade their phones until there's another compact iPhone in the lineup again.
    Wrong... millions would at least upgrade to 6s and millions of others would upgrade to XR.  There isn’t much of a size increase.  Yes, there are some that want as small a form factor as possible, but it comes with a compromise in screen size as well... this is true for all brands of phones at this time.  
    I think you mean the Xs.  The XR is the same footprint as the 6/7/8 Plus models.
    ... tho you may be thinking that one would prefer to upgrade from 5 to an XS.  I’m not arguing with that.  But I’m assuming these guys with 5/5SE iPhones aren’t willing to spend money for X or XS.  There are many ways to look at it.  But basically the X/XR/XS aren’t really thaaaaat much larger than the older phones.  
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 50 of 166
    wood1208 said:
    4 years replacement cycle sounds unreasonable. People go at most 2 1/2 to 3 years most.
    Can you provide a source for this claim?
    beowulfschmidt
  • Reply 51 of 166

    DAalseth said:
    wood1208 said:
    4 years replacement cycle sounds unreasonable. People go at most 2 1/2 to 3 years most.
    The thing is, for me at least, there's no compelling reason to upgrade. Yes the screen is nicer, but it has reached the point of diminishing return. Yes the cameras are better, but my almost three year old SE still takes great shots. My SE still runs the latest iOS and gets all the features. I look at the iPhone XS and it is lovely, but I keep asking myself what it would give me that my SE doesn't. So far the hole in my bank account doesn't outweigh the improvements. Until the SE stops working, or at least won't do something I want it to do, I have no compelling reason to upgrade.
    The SE's camera is pretty mediocre compared to what comes in the latest iPhones. OSS is amazing for video on my X. Screen real estate is certainly a big plus for me as well, I can't image having to read stuff on a 5" screen anymore.
    Seems to work very well for me.

    crossladraybowatto_cobra
  • Reply 52 of 166
    k2kwk2kw Posts: 1,767member
    rfrmac said:
    This should be no surprise to anyone.  This should show that Apple need to be more inventive with the introductions of NEW products.  When you come out with new phones every year, the changes in them are going to be smaller.  Spend more time on updating other products you have.  How long have we waited for the real Pro Mac?  Apple needs to be more than a phone company in the future when it comes to hardware.  Apple really needs "The next big thing".
    Does Coke need a next big thing? Google? Netflix? They all have their established product lines and the world is OK with that. Apple has iPhone, Macs, iPad, etc and each of these is as big or bigger than other entire corporations. They’re fine. They don’t “need” the things most armchair CEOs think they do. 
    You're comparing Apples to oranges.    Companies that make physical products like cars and electric appliances do need need new products every year.    Netflix relies on subscriptions (but doesn't make much money yet).   Google makes billions from advertising.   Its just the nature of Technology that what's new is worth more than what's old. It's pretty useless to whine about it.   rfrmac is right.   Apple needs "The next big thing"  and they know it.   They've been partially successful with the iPad and watch.    Not so with the HomePod.   That's also why they have flirted with automotive technology via Project Titan.
  • Reply 53 of 166
    k2kwk2kw Posts: 1,767member
    McJobs said:
    Tens of millions of iPhone 5/5s/5c/SE users won't upgrade their phones until there's another compact iPhone in the lineup again.
    Yeah, you keep thinking that.  No one is still using an iPhone 5 model and Apple only sold 3M iPhone SEs compared to 60M of all other model phones at the time.  So where do you come up with "Tens of millions" when Apple only sold 3M SE phones and then killed it because no one really wanted a tiny iPhone?  You do know that the iPhone 6/7/8/X is only about a half inch bigger than the SE?  Is your hand so small that you can't hold onto it?
    Where did Apple breakdown their numbers for the iPhone SE?      I've only seen aggregate numbers for all phones released.
  • Reply 54 of 166
    doggonedoggone Posts: 184member
    Since the iPhone 3GS, I have generally been upgrading every 2-3 years.  The time frame has been reducing over the years.  Now with the Apple Upgrade program, I pay the same price I have in the past but can get a new phone every year.  I know I will not wait for 3 years to upgrade and will have little use for a 2 year iPhone if I wait that time to upgrade.  So for me, there is little advantage waiting 2 years to upgrade just so I can sell the phone for $200-300.  I am paying the same monthly fee and get a new phone every year.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 55 of 166
    cornchipcornchip Posts: 1,365member
    Without more units there may be a cap on how far subscribers will expand, and second-hand buyers are believed to be less likely to spring for extra services.

    Im not sure if this line is part of the “analyst”’s speculation or the editorial, or both, but it’s so shortsighted. 

    If someone (like me) buys a secondhand device it generally means a few things: 1- they’re cost conscious, sure. 2- there’s a lot of choice out there nowadays. If someone is buying secondhand Apple kit they’re doing so because THEY WANT AN APPLE PRODUCT. Not just because they’re getting the cheapest thing they can find (which there’s no shortage of on droid side). If cost was only concern, why get Apple? 3- If someone is buying used Apple devices it probably means that they’re buying used not necessarily because they WANT to, but because they are being financially (and environmentally as Lisa Jackson pointed out a few months ago) responsible. In the future, when they start making more money (as apple buyers tend to do) they will likely buy another (used or new/er) Apple product, because that’s what they want. Shocker I know. And the services will be right there to suck them in just like the App Store before them and the iTunes before them. 

    I’m one of those people. Still using a 5s. Bought it used, still loving it. Still dreaming of the day I can get a new iPhone and Mac Pro without thinking twice about it. Not sure I’ll ever be there, but my ceo just called me in his office today to talk about a promotion. Maybe when Apple makes that sweet,sweet 5s bodied edge-to-edge iPhone I’ll be able to afford it. But probably not, will probably have to buy a used 8. But eventually I see myself being able to afford a new iPhone, Apple Music, a few home pods, maybe some HomeKit enabled smart home products.. oh yeah, and the new new Mac Pro. Well I can dream can’t I?

    Anyway, I think all this analyst fretting is a bunch of hand-wringing over silver lining. A bunch of short-sighted nit-wits that will never grasp what makes Apple great. And I hope Apple doesn’t forget. 
    edited February 8 raybowatto_cobra
  • Reply 56 of 166
    jdwjdw Posts: 778member
    It's only natural this is happening.  People don't have endless amounts of disposable income forever.  Adobe seems to be doing great with their subscription model NOW, but will they 10 years hence when people go through hard times and realize monthly fees are eating away at what little income they have?  It's down to how much spare cash you have and down to how much money you can make after paying off all these computers and subscription fees.  I suspect though that a lot of the tech we have now really is more luxury than necessity.  We actually did survive back in the day before cell phones even existed, and yes, we even had computers back then too. Do we really, really need all the tech we have?  A lot of people are asking that questions and answering with their wallets.

    As an AAPL investor since 1999, I want to see the stock continue to rise and pay dividends.  But as a consumer and realist, people will buy Apple products either when they have disposable income, when they can get a good ROI for their tech purchase, or when a new tech device really screams, "You've got to buy this!"  A lot of people today are facing hard times financially, myself included.  So we take a harder look at what we have and ask, "are my existing devices still good enough?"  When the answer is "yes," we hold off on new purchases.  Any frugal person does that and should do that.

    To get people like me (and there are many of us) to get excited again and spend more money on Apple products, you have to start catering to our needs and wants.  The Apple notebook line began a death cycle, in my eyes, starting in late 2016.  Bad keyboards, not a single USB-A port, no extension power code in the box anymore, no MagSafe, no LED on charging cable, no glowing Apple logo on back, a useless TouchBar -- these are things that sour many veteran Mac lovers on portable Macs.  It's time Apple stop listening to Johnny Ive extremist minimalism and start listening to customers.  When they do that, coming out with a great industrial design AND all the features we want and love, we consumers will be more willing to part with our hard earned money and send it Apple's way.  Give me most of what I want, and not only will I love you but I will scrimp and save to buy that new device.  (I remember doing just that, saving every last penny, so I could spend $1000 on a Quadra 650 logic board upgrade to my Mac IIvx.) Until such a time that I see really compelling products, I will continue to use my existing old tech.  My late 2009 iMac video card bake video is closing in on 200,000 views now.  It's still useful even though it's almost 10 years old.  I won't buy a new iMac until I feel my existing one cannot be used daily any longer.  Many "regular people" in my age group feel this way (still under 50 but getting dangerously close).
  • Reply 57 of 166
    kitatit said:
    wood1208 said:
    4 years replacement cycle sounds unreasonable. People go at most 2 1/2 to 3 years most.
    I used to be a 2year upgrader. But Apple prices now have made me choke and hold off the last two years. I was absolutely ready to buy an iPhone X but just can’t stomach the price. OK, here comes the XS, I’ll get that..... what? They raised the price again! Choke again, OK iPhone 11?.... 

    It’s always been a case of you couldn’t give me an Android for free but the thought of switching to Android has actually crossed my mind now. 

    My iPhone 6 is looking like a 5year upgrade cycle. 
    We’ll surely it’s crossed your mind that with an Android you wouldn’t have the option of waiting 5 years between upgrades. The very fact you can wait this long speaks to the reality that iPhone has a much lower total cost of ownership. When your financial circumstances allow, if you upgrade to a new iPhone you can expect to get the same if not more years out of it. 

    Figuring $1,100 for a new iPhone XS Max, that comes out to $18 a month or less over its life cycle.
    Well yes, I surely have considered this. I maintain mining machinery in the middle of the Western Australian desert, in some of the harshest condition a phone can be asked to survive. Apart from glass screen protectors and a new battery my iPhone 6 is still going after almost 5 years. It’s not lost on me that it’s rare for an Android to have this type of longevity.  

    My maths and understanding of total cost of ownership are fine. My late 2008 MacBook Pro (which still runs OK) has cost me $34 a month for the last 122 months.


    My point is that 4+year upgrade cycles are far from uncommon now. 

    People can justify Apple pricing/cost of ownership any way they like. That’s everyone’s personal choice and decision to make. 

    I see the value in an iPhone but my relationships with Apple as a customer has changed from  “shut up and take my money” 
    to more of a resentful tenant to their landlord who keeps jacking the price excessively. 

    I don’t want to leave this part of town and most likely won’t but I’m considering my options. If  Apple hasn’t put the brakes on with the price rises by iPhone 11, I’ll probably join the used market.
    edited February 9 beowulfschmidtwatto_cobra
  • Reply 58 of 166
    I think this is where both the price hikes plus the lack of major innovative differences between the models starts to hurt Apple. Their best bet is to keep trying to clamp down on third party fixes, particularly battery changes, which has been one of the factors that's crippled Apple's bottom line recently (Cook specifically mentioned low cost battery upgrades as a major factor), plus iOS upgrades that slow older devices like molasses. In other words, really nothing good.
  • Reply 59 of 166
    jungmarkjungmark Posts: 6,709member
    k2kw said:
    rfrmac said:
    This should be no surprise to anyone.  This should show that Apple need to be more inventive with the introductions of NEW products.  When you come out with new phones every year, the changes in them are going to be smaller.  Spend more time on updating other products you have.  How long have we waited for the real Pro Mac?  Apple needs to be more than a phone company in the future when it comes to hardware.  Apple really needs "The next big thing".
    Does Coke need a next big thing? Google? Netflix? They all have their established product lines and the world is OK with that. Apple has iPhone, Macs, iPad, etc and each of these is as big or bigger than other entire corporations. They’re fine. They don’t “need” the things most armchair CEOs think they do. 
    You're comparing Apples to oranges.    Companies that make physical products like cars and electric appliances do need need new products every year.    Netflix relies on subscriptions (but doesn't make much money yet).   Google makes billions from advertising.   Its just the nature of Technology that what's new is worth more than what's old. It's pretty useless to whine about it.   rfrmac is right.   Apple needs "The next big thing"  and they know it.   They've been partially successful with the iPad and watch.    Not so with the HomePod.   That's also why they have flirted with automotive technology via Project Titan.
    Cars get redesigned every 4-5 years, not every year. My 2013 Altima looks like the 2017 Altima with minor changes on the inside.  The iPad and watch have been very successful BTW. 
    radarthekatwatto_cobra
  • Reply 60 of 166
    flydog said:
    kitatit said:
    wood1208 said:
    4 years replacement cycle sounds unreasonable. People go at most 2 1/2 to 3 years most.
    I used to be a 2year upgrader. But Apple prices now have made me choke and hold off the last two years. I was absolutely ready to buy an iPhone X but just can’t stomach the price. OK, here comes the XS, I’ll get that..... what? They raised the price again! Choke again, OK iPhone 11?.... 

    It’s always been a case of you couldn’t give me an Android for free but the thought of switching to Android has actually crossed my mind now. 

    My iPhone 6 is looking like a 5year upgrade cycle. 
    The replacement for a 6 is not an XS, it's an XR, which is around the same price as the 6 when it was released.

    Apple hasn't "raised" any prices, it's released phones at the higher end, but in this age of self entitlement we live in, a $750 phone that is three times more powerful than the $750 phone from two years ago is not good enough.  Everyone has to have the best, and they feel their constitutional rights are being violated if it's not sold for the same price as the phone they bought four years ago. 

    Get real.





    iPhone 6s+ was $750 3 years ago, iPhone XR is the same $750.

    Similar:
    The screens break even(some size difference, notch is annoying, 3D Touch and some ppi is lost for the True Tone).
    Touch ID 2 vs Face ID 1 seem relatively similar and good performers, it is more to user opinions.
    Size: The Xr is thicker and weighs more vs the more height and width of the 6S+
    Larger screen with lots of gestures vs home button

    Better on the 6S+:
    Headphone port

    Better on the Xr:
    1 Hr longer battery life+wireless charging for those that use it.
    Cameras
    A12 vs A9 chip (I guess starting storage should be here of 64gb vs 16 gb, but that puts the xr at the $850 6s+ price at the time)
    1 meter water resistance.

    I guess that is more advantages to the Xr but considering it has been 3 years it hasn't been much, also individuals will prefer each of those similarities differently where on a bias, the Xr isn't much of an upgrade at all for the same price. But the XS receives a winning screen and even more camera for the cost of size and battery life over the XR for $1k. That is about the upgrade we should have seen in my opinion over this time.

    raybowatto_cobragsrennie
Sign In or Register to comment.