Trump’s disruption of trade could be over in about a year and a half. Or not.
This kind of concern shows one of the great downsides of the globalized economy- a natural disaster or a political decision can put whole industries at risk. Remember when floods in Thailand disrupted the HD supply worldwide?
Isn't that what most forums are about? Speculation, opinions, and crazy theories?
BTW - Why do you use bold for your entire post? Is it to make your post stand out?
I would claim that an entire post in bold is harder to read than a normal post. If anything, it might have the opposite effect, and instead of making your post stand out, some people might just skip over it.
It took me 9 months to move a 10,000 people production facility into China. I needed only 2 months from planning to finish removing a factory from Philippines to another country. It was 20 years ago. With the ability of Foxconn, they won’t need more time than mine.
Actually, China’s labor is much more expensive than developing countries these days. At the turn of the century, cheap Chinese labor was only part of the equation, it was really about the component suppliers. Tim managed logistics, and China was the only place that had almost every type of electronic component manufacturing in one geographic region.
Apple also manufactures in Brazil, and iPhone components come from many countries, including the US. Apple can leave China faster than many would imagine if they must.
I'm no Trump supporter but this policy is long overdue. When we allowed China into the WTO and they reneged on every promise they made to gain entrance their membership should have been revoked 20 years ago. But obviously there was too much money to be made by the 1% that really runs the world.
Over the past 5 years the Chinese government's arrogance has been less hidden and its obvious that they see the US as an enemy and not just a 'strategic competitor'. We are fools to continue funding the growth of a country that is nearly certain to be on a trajectory that leads to a confrontation with us in the future. All US investment should be moved out of China as soon as possible. There are plenty of other options. Central America perhaps? There appear to be several hundred thousand Guatemalans looking for jobs in the US. Why not relocate supply chains to these countries and keep them in the same hemisphere? Hell, even Thailand, Vietnam or the Phillipines would be better options. None of these countries has an agenda to confront the U.S. militarily in the future as China so blatantly does.
Hopefully Apple and every American company relocates all of its production out of this country as soon as possible.
I would consider Trump presidency not a total failure if the only thing he accomplished was to bring back manufacturing and stop the trade imbalance with China. I would gladly pay more (to an extent) for products knowing that my money is going into the local economy and local workforce. ߇갟縦amp;nbsp;
However, I do not have hope for a man who lost $1.3 billion over 10 years and calls himself “like, a very stable genius,” says the sound of windmills cause cancer, and doesn’t know what country his dad was born. If anybody else acted like this we’d be dropping quarters into his paper cup.
I'm no Trump supporter but this policy is long overdue. When we allowed China into the WTO and they reneged on every promise they made to gain entrance their membership should have been revoked 20 years ago. But obviously there was too much money to be made by the 1% that really runs the world.
Over the past 5 years the Chinese government's arrogance has been less hidden and its obvious that they see the US as an enemy and not just a 'strategic competitor'. We are fools to continue funding the growth of a country that is nearly certain to be on a trajectory that leads to a confrontation with us in the future. All US investment should be moved out of China as soon as possible. There are plenty of other options. Central America perhaps? There appear to be several hundred thousand Guatemalans looking for jobs in the US. Why not relocate supply chains to these countries and keep them in the same hemisphere? Hell, even Thailand, Vietnam or the Phillipines would be better options. None of these countries has an agenda to confront the U.S. militarily in the future as China so blatantly does.
Hopefully Apple and every American company relocates all of its production out of this country as soon as possible.
I am not picking your comment in particular.
Instead, I am arguing that discussion of if the current tariffs are justified or not is the false narrative. As we all know by now the tariffs are a blunt tool that passes the costs on to the buyer. The effect will ultimately force companies to move some of their production. It is somewhat similar to fighting a war only with tanks - well because they are pretty good on the ground.
HOWEVER, there are so many other tools that the US could be using. The Obama administration was likely trying to use some of these tools and also putting in place the framework to use sophisticated tools, but at a very slow pace (but we don't know all the details).
If the WH would use a more comprehensive toolset it would be much stronger. For example, Not allowing products into the US that use stolen IP, setting quotas on areas where they are dumping (Steel), restricting certain companies from buying parts if they are stealing IP, refusing to let students study certain subjects at US universities, temporarily applying the same rules to Chinese companies as foreign companies face in China. Limit Visas to Chinese nationals the same way they treat others visiting China, there at least 100 similar items. Of course, it would make sense to have a backbone and penalizing all the website the enable pirated goods to be sold - read Alibaba, Ebay, Amazon - all these companies could easily figure out what is fake.
Even more importantly, the European and Japanese companies have this problem as well so why take on China without Europe - instead, the non-US narrative is that we are being a bully. Furthermore, there is the thought that US tech companies make so much money it is ok for others to steal a little here or there.
Of course part of the problem with the US approach is that some US firms, more so US private equity firms are frequently just as bad as China with not playing fair, as are just as bad for everyone.
The next phase is likely to become more extreme - as soon there is an alternate supply for every component.
For anyone who thinks this is about trade, please go and do the research. The reason the deal is currently at an impasse has to with IP thief. China is refusing to change their laws to allow US company to go after Chinese companies for IP thief. China was only willing to agree to an informal process to challenge IP thief (i.e, when the current administration is gone China can go back to what China has always done) The current administration is using the Tariff to get China to come to the table, and whomever advised the 10% knew this would have little impact on US consumers but enough to get China's attention since some companies would move production out of China. At 25% consumer will feel it and companies will definitely move production and that is starting to happen. Chinese manufacturing companies are setting up shop outside China so they do not loose the business, but this means Chinese workers will not have jobs this has bigger impact in China. China has been hurting over this more than the US. This has a lot more to do about getting China to stop the blatant stealing of US tech than the trade debt everyone keeps talking about.
It took me 9 months to move a 10,000 people production facility into China. I needed only 2 months from planning to finish removing a factory from Philippines to another country. It was 20 years ago. With the ability of Foxconn, they won’t need more time than mine.
Exactly, this is what people do not understand, 90 of the 100 largest companies in the World are US companies and they manufacture or buy from various countries around the world. One thing US companies are really good at is moving manufacturing to the best cost solution. US companies are not going to sit back and absorb the tariff and will not pass it along to consumers. With the new deal with Mexico and Canada US companies are starting to move production from China in to Mexico.
Comments
Trump’s disruption of trade could be over in about a year and a half. Or not.
This kind of concern shows one of the great downsides of the globalized economy- a natural disaster or a political decision can put whole industries at risk. Remember when floods in Thailand disrupted the HD supply worldwide?
BTW - Why do you use bold for your entire post? Is it to make your post stand out?
I would claim that an entire post in bold is harder to read than a normal post. If anything, it might have the opposite effect, and instead of making your post stand out, some people might just skip over it.
https://countryeconomy.com/countries/compare/china/russia
So Americans would have to pay what the rest of the world pays.
Or Apple could move manufacturing to Taiwan, Vietnam, Phillipines...
Apple also manufactures in Brazil, and iPhone components come from many countries, including the US. Apple can leave China faster than many would imagine if they must.
Over the past 5 years the Chinese government's arrogance has been less hidden and its obvious that they see the US as an enemy and not just a 'strategic competitor'. We are fools to continue funding the growth of a country that is nearly certain to be on a trajectory that leads to a confrontation with us in the future. All US investment should be moved out of China as soon as possible. There are plenty of other options. Central America perhaps? There appear to be several hundred thousand Guatemalans looking for jobs in the US. Why not relocate supply chains to these countries and keep them in the same hemisphere? Hell, even Thailand, Vietnam or the Phillipines would be better options. None of these countries has an agenda to confront the U.S. militarily in the future as China so blatantly does.
Hopefully Apple and every American company relocates all of its production out of this country as soon as possible.
However, I do not have hope for a man who lost $1.3 billion over 10 years and calls himself “like, a very stable genius,” says the sound of windmills cause cancer, and doesn’t know what country his dad was born. If anybody else acted like this we’d be dropping quarters into his paper cup.
Instead, I am arguing that discussion of if the current tariffs are justified or not is the false narrative. As we all know by now the tariffs are a blunt tool that passes the costs on to the buyer. The effect will ultimately force companies to move some of their production. It is somewhat similar to fighting a war only with tanks - well because they are pretty good on the ground.
HOWEVER, there are so many other tools that the US could be using. The Obama administration was likely trying to use some of these tools and also putting in place the framework to use sophisticated tools, but at a very slow pace (but we don't know all the details).
If the WH would use a more comprehensive toolset it would be much stronger. For example, Not allowing products into the US that use stolen IP, setting quotas on areas where they are dumping (Steel), restricting certain companies from buying parts if they are stealing IP, refusing to let students study certain subjects at US universities, temporarily applying the same rules to Chinese companies as foreign companies face in China. Limit Visas to Chinese nationals the same way they treat others visiting China, there at least 100 similar items. Of course, it would make sense to have a backbone and penalizing all the website the enable pirated goods to be sold - read Alibaba, Ebay, Amazon - all these companies could easily figure out what is fake.
Even more importantly, the European and Japanese companies have this problem as well so why take on China without Europe - instead, the non-US narrative is that we are being a bully. Furthermore, there is the thought that US tech companies make so much money it is ok for others to steal a little here or there.
Of course part of the problem with the US approach is that some US firms, more so US private equity firms are frequently just as bad as China with not playing fair, as are just as bad for everyone.
The next phase is likely to become more extreme - as soon there is an alternate supply for every component.